The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[BombaUcigasa]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Where did you pull your data?

[dnaleor]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

data: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv

the next weeks will be deciding. We will see if the log trend holds. If not, too bad and it will go at lot slower.

[wayshegoes]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

[wobber]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

+1

[BombaUcigasa]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

What are your estimates based on?

Here's my source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

[fran2k]

Beautifully bullish my friends.

[BitChick]

Beautifully bullish my friends.

[wayshegoes]

I think it will be much much slower than most in here are predicting. We can't all get rich in a few months when everyone is believing the same thing.

What are your estimates based on?

Here's my source: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed.png

You reckon most of the BTC mined every day is being hoarded? It would make sense. Never really see that much volume on exchanges. I really hope you are right with your predictions, but I won't be that unhappy if you aren't. I can wait a little

[blatchcorn]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

data: https://api.bitcoinaverage.com/history/USD/per_day_all_time_history.csv

the next weeks will be deciding. We will see if the log trend holds. If not, too bad and it will go at lot slower.

With Bitcoin the next weeks are always critical 

[IIOII]

It's nice to see a price graph going back that far in history (again). But I doubt that the prediction will hold true:

First, you have only a very low number of observed patterns.
Second, even these historical patterns show great variance in the amount of price movement.
Third, you have to take into account the fact that additional percentage gains become harder to achieve with increasing market capitalization.

[colinistheman]

It's nice to see a price graph going back that far in history (again). But I doubt that the prediction will hold true:

First, you have only a very low number of observed patterns.
Second, even these historical patterns show great variance in the amount of price movement.
Third, you have to take into account the fact that additional percentage gains become harder to achieve with increasing market capitalization.

Fourth, he's probably right.

[dani]

[...]
I can wait a little

this and

With Bitcoin the next weeks are always critical  

relax guys 

[BitChick]

Hey JulieFig,

I sent you a couple PMs but haven't heard anything yet.  There is a 100mBTC donation waiting for you on this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=720940.msg8142901#msg8142901

You need to respond in the next 6 days though to accept it.  This small "thanks" is to encourage you as you wait for your first real bitcoin rally.  It takes more patience than we would like sometimes.  I was really hoping we would be at that point right now but maybe it will be delayed a bit due to various things.  Hopefully soon though! 

[Possum577]

I notice that the horizontal lines indicating price per Bitcoin get closer and closer together as the price reaches the next highest milestone. This causes the growth line to appear more steep, or more of a "to the moon" trajectory than the lower prices in the range. This not only makes the chart movement more sensational, but it distorts reality.

Can you re-produce the chart with equal distance between each horizontal price line?

Thanks, it's great to see some analysis!

[Possum577]

The data is just pricing and time, there's nothing tricky about it.

It's the patterns that one recognizes or calls out that is completely subjective, BUT (caps on purpose) Google "Technical Stock Analysis" and you'll find tons of articles talking about the principles being used here to "predict" the future performance based on the past trends.

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

[Possum577]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.

Google "MACD + technical analysis" and you'll find the technical analysis rationale that the OP is using for this. The future may never happen as this chart indicates but his thought process isn't wild, without merit, or baseless.

To the OP, where can we see this updated daily or weekly?

[Possum577]

Adjusting the channel to fit the trend you're looking for would compromise the fact base of this analysis. If you start messing with the numbers to "make them work" you've moved farther from the fact, which makes what you're looking for even less likely.

Your channel seems to be based mostly on the last two peaks. In particular there doesn't seem to be much basis for the lower part of your channel. I know it's just an approximation, but have you considered using a slightly "bendy" channel to fit the data? Over time you would expect the exponential trend to flatten out after all.

Unless to da moon literally means I'm going to be rich enough to buy the moon