10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days!

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Did MTC just say "Moon?"

GET YOUR HELMETS UVERYBODY

[Carra23]

Matt you are one entertaining guy. I do appreciate your honesty with how bad a trader you are - you've never hid your constant failures from us. The truth is most everybody here is a shitty trader - myself included. It just takes some of us longer and more losses (lesson fees) to admit it to ourselves (it took me many, many years and lots of $  ).

It does make me a little nervous that you are on board this train, but I think btc fundamentals and technicals are strong enough to handle even that. 
Good luck, brother...
 

I still do not feel its a rally yet. Still every morning checking the prices makes me happy.

[spazzdla]

..

F IT!

I am buying btc friday.

[HeliKopterBen]

Dammit Matt.  I was looking forward to riding this trend up.  Now that you have turned bullish, I have to put my worry cap back on.

[Dafar]

CatTheMat lol

[toknormal]

Even eBay and Paypal have turned bullish...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000281677

[zimmah]

quite funny when i realized this was from mat.

[scarsbergholden]

So wait. Just about everyone has now turned full on bullish? Hmm, maybe I have to rethink my short term outlook. Was thinking down to 630, up past 700. Now maybe we will actually retrace back to the 500s.

[MatTheCat]

Which might still come, by the way. Retesting the first retracement level at ~530 is still a possibility, but that's more a thought in the back of my mind rather than a likely scenario right now.

Every ounce of common sense in my head tells me that Bitcoin is more likely than not to test the 32% Fib retracement ratio at $580, but then again, I have been operating under this premise from $520 when I sold my $460 position to take profits in front of a 2K BTC wall on Stamp........that was simply taken down 5 minutes later. Now that I have bit the bullet and put my BTC out of easy reach, 'common sense' will most likely prevail and Bitcoin will indeed test the 32% Fib retracement at ~$580. That would fucking piss me off but I would just have to grin and bear it because holding out for it up until now has cost me. I was sleeping at the $540 breakout point, but I have made entries at $571, $600, $630, etc, all of which I have folded for peanuts profit, in anticipation of the 'correction'. Right now, I would swap any one of those entry points for my current $660.

I really don't think that Bitcoin will test the trend at $530. With the long term indicators on the weekly chart all conspiring, to show a buy signal, who is gonna sell their BTC that low? Somehow, I doubt that there are many short sellers and on Bitfinex, the main leveraged trading site, there has already been huge profit taking on two occasions and 23% Fib level was as far is it got, twice.  

I also believe that there are forces at work intentionally engineering this ramp. Whales or perhaps a single whale entity, who sees the potential and the opportunity to ramp Bitcoin through the roof, now we are at the otherside of a brutal bear market and with the tailwinds of the long term momentum indicators at Bitcoin's back.

It does make me a little nervous that you are on board this train, but I think btc fundamentals and technicals are strong enough to handle even that.  
Good luck, brother...

Be nervous. I have the luck of sod on my side. Even when I get it spot on right, my impulsive nature generally see's to it that I fuck it up somehow or another. The fact that I have committed myself to a long with BTC in offline wallet, probably means that $80-$100 correction is on the cards. Such a correction would make total sense from an EW analysts point of view and would set the scene for an über-bullish Wave (iii)  of a Wave [III]. I have had buy-in tranches down at $580 range for days, but my patience broke and I bought in at $660. Almost everytime I do that, I regret it and my original vision of the market comes to pass.

Edit: On 4Hr chart, RSI, and OBV, are screaming negative divergence and a stronger correction than just to $620.....Daily indicators are also all looking pretty damn maxed out and suggesting a strong correction, but then with the Weekly indicators all about to give buy signals, perhaps there won't be enough selling pressure for a good correction? Who is really going to want to sell if they believe that the next mania is coming around the mountain?

[bitrider]

  Well, actually I don't think the 80 or 100 drop is that unlikely. It is very possible - particularly a flash crash, or false start of sorts. But as you know, that is small potatoes and won't last long. The boom to come will make that truly insignificant. Lift off - 1 week, 3 weeks, even a month or two...not a problem. I love your full moon reference - could be right. I've been watching that myself for over a year now. Let's ride!

[MatTheCat]

Well, actually I don't think the 80 or 100 drop is that unlikely. It is very possible - particularly a flash crash, or false start of sorts. But as you know, that is small potatoes and won't last long. The boom to come will make that truly insignificant. Lift off - 1 week, 3 weeks, even a month or two...not a problem. I love your full moon reference - could be right. I've been watching that myself for over a year now. Let's ride!

I think a correction to $580 is also very likely, but if I weren't to buy in, and I wake up one morning with Huobi having instigated a Bitcoin ramp up through the $700 mark, then I would really well and truly piss my pants. I can't win. I am just gonna have to be prepared to take the pain when it comes, if it comes, which it probably will.

Regarding the moon, go and check the charts and the moon phases. Full moons tend to coincide with market lift-off, dark moons with sell-offs. 100% record since the sell-off accompanying the dark moon in March 2014 and a good statistical coincidence before that and indeed right through Bitcoin's history.

[Raystonn]

If you look very closely you can see a large BTC on the surface of the moon.  It explains everything.

[spazzdla]

Well, actually I don't think the 80 or 100 drop is that unlikely. It is very possible - particularly a flash crash, or false start of sorts. But as you know, that is small potatoes and won't last long. The boom to come will make that truly insignificant. Lift off - 1 week, 3 weeks, even a month or two...not a problem. I love your full moon reference - could be right. I've been watching that myself for over a year now. Let's ride!

Go and check the charts and the moon phases. Full moons tend to coincide with market lift-off, dark moons with sell-offs. 100% record since the sell-off accompanying the dark moon in March 2014 and a good statistical coincidence before that and indeed right through Bitcoin's history.

This is awesome... ya buying tomorrow.

[Argwai96]

Often times the bears and the cautious bulls get really bullish at the very top. Just sayin'. It's bitcoin and will probably rocket to the moon. But just because it will hurt so many, that retrace might happen.

[BTCtrader71]

Good move Mat! Just in time for favorable comments by eBay CEO -- very bullish from a fundamentals analysis perspective!

[oda.krell]

I really don't think that Bitcoin will test the trend at $530. With the long term indicators on the weekly chart all conspiring, to show a buy signal, who is gonna sell their BTC that low? Somehow, I doubt that there are many short sellers and on Bitfinex, the main leveraged trading site, there has already been huge profit taking on two occasions and 23% Fib level was as far is it got, twice.  

Why not?

May I present to you: the Oct 2 crash.



1w MACD just turned green? check.

Last gasp before a huge uptrend? check.

Flash crash that broke 23% fib level from ATH to bottom anyway? check as well.


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

[bitrider]

Exactly. The price and news are neither wholly causal nor wholly dependent - but most often co-creative. 

But is there a deeper attractor field pattern? That's what we all really want to know...

[ampere9765]

Kinda hoping for a SR type crash. I sold some in the 650s, 680s. Haven't bought back because I want to either see a higher low first before another push upwards, or a nice selloff.

[ampere9765]

Nah we need news to move it like that.
no terrible news = no silk road type crash before the bubble

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

[MatTheCat]

Nah we need news to move it like that.
no terrible news = no silk road type crash before the bubble

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

And where does one acquire information on the level of BFX longs?

There has already been a lot of profit taking on Bitfinex. Both the $680-$620 crashes were Bitfinex inspired with each of the red 4hr candles over the price slide being 15K BTC strong.

Their equivalents on Bitstamp were 11K, and then 9K, but then much of this volume could also include Bitfinex volume.