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Author Topic: If bitcoin ever goes mainstream  (Read 29053 times)
aljunking
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September 16, 2014, 02:14:34 AM
 #81

Lets talk about this when bitcoin goes mainstream. Maybe it will take 3 more decades for that.
Trading (OP)
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September 21, 2014, 04:45:27 AM
 #82

It seems that bitcoin was also banned in Bangladesh, even if the country has a history of ignored bans by its population:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/11097208/Why-Bangladesh-will-jail-Bitcoin-traders.html

Besides, the ban conclusion under its regulations doesn't seem to be clear:

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-foundation-bangladesh-ban-bitcoin/

The Rock Trading Exchange forges its order books with bots, uses them to scam customers and is trying to appropriate 35000 euro from a forum member https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4975753.0
jangandusta
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September 21, 2014, 07:05:28 AM
 #83

let's hope for the future  Wink
coindetective
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September 21, 2014, 07:36:54 AM
 #84

It seems that bitcoin was also banned in Bangladesh, even if the country has a history of ignored bans by its population:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/11097208/Why-Bangladesh-will-jail-Bitcoin-traders.html

Besides, the ban conclusion under its regulations doesn't seem to be clear:

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-foundation-bangladesh-ban-bitcoin/

Oppressive regime try to ban everything not designed by them. No worries there, I m sure there has not been lots of BTC users in Bangladesh.

TwoCoins1Purse
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September 22, 2014, 04:45:24 AM
 #85

Lets talk about this when bitcoin goes mainstream. Maybe it will take 3 more decades for that.

I dont know if you're one who believes in the collapse of fiat, but should the world's reserve currency of the  US Dollar collapse I can see global adoption implementing like a domino effect as the world struggles to regain monetary stability. (in my opinion it would be much faster out of sheer desperation, like 5 to at most 10 years)
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September 25, 2014, 07:02:47 AM
 #86

This new world is going to require some new ways of thinking. The old ways will no longer work. The people that come up with the new ideas will be very wealthy.

Everyone is thinking what is the fast way to become rich. *sigh*  Undecided
Jerome?
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October 06, 2014, 11:28:10 AM
 #87

Bitcoin will never reach the mainstream.

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October 06, 2014, 01:49:02 PM
 #88

It will devaluate FIAT currencies to a certain degree, yeah, but for Bitcoin to go mainstream, it would only have to replace FIAT by 1%-5%, I guess. And that much of an adoption won't hurt FIAT a lot! It will only strengthen Bitcoin.

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October 06, 2014, 02:11:53 PM
 #89

If bitcoin ever goes mainstream,I will be rich, because I now have some BTCS!

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sealberrder
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October 06, 2014, 02:17:19 PM
 #90

Bitcoin will never reach the mainstream.

It is like saying in 90s Internet never reach the mainstream.
Internet uses maybe about half of the world population. So one can argue Internet is not mainstream yet.
picolo
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October 06, 2014, 08:37:23 PM
 #91

If bitcoin ever goes mainstream it will surely ruin the lifes of all the ones invested in fiat (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=180798.0). Gresham's Law will destroy their fiat savings, since everyone will want the stronger bitcoin, devaluating fiat. We'll see it happen first in the troubled economies, with high inflation and generalized suspicion on governmental money because of past problems.

And I have little doubt that bitcoin won't bring any equality, on the contrary. It will make us bitcoiners rich, but it will be at the expenses of fiat holders.

Because I doubt bitcoin will bring much prosperity, since it will establish a deflationary monetary system. But maybe it will be possible to minimize those deflationary effects:

a) Commercial banks will adopt a bitcoin fractional reserve system, lending bitcoins with only partial support on their holdings. That will allow an artificial (banking) expansion of the amount of bitcoins, thanks to the so-called banking money multiplier.
But since it will be hard to keep a trustworthy insurance of deposits (the government won't have enough bitcoins for that and can't create them), the system will be much more susceptible to runs.
And the interest will have to be high, because most people will prefer to have the bitcoins in their own wallets. So, forget about low interest rates. Well, high real interest rates (aggravated by potential deflation) can ruin any economy, since they thwart many productive investment based on credit.

b) It also might be created a bitcoin pattern, with governments printing money freely convertible in bitcoins. But I can see already the runs on the government on times of crises.

How will the central bank in depressions stimulate the economy?
It won't be possible to do any quantitative easing. Borrowing bitcoins to lend them at cheaper interest rates to the commercial banks won't be cheap.

How will the Government control massive tax evasion, especially if the anonymity of bitcoin improves?  
They will find a way, nothing has destroyed the State in more than 13 thousand years of hierarchical societies. Bitcoin won't be able to do it. It seems we will be subject to intense control of our use of the Internet in order to track our earnings and spending of bitcoins. Some we'll be able to evade it. But the majority won't.

Will the volatility of bitcoin ever end?
The increase of its users will keep bitcoin's price going up. However, because supply and demand is controlled by human perceptions and emotions, after a huge boom in price it will always come a bust. Every overshooting of the price will be followed by a general perception that the price increased too fast and, consequently, by a drop.
For volatility to end, it would be necessary a general adoption of bitcoin that would limit in percentual terms further increases of new users taking in account the already large numbers of users. Currently, since the number of users is relatively low it's easy to see its numbers increase for more than 30% in a short period. But since the numbers of bitcoin are limited (and the current rate of increase is relatively small and it will be slowly limited), the ending of volatility would also require or a stagnant GDP or a fractional reserve system based on bitcoin that would allow its banking numbers to artificially increase side by side with GDP. That won't happen for years. Volatility is here to stay for long.

Will this scenario be the future?
It's impossible to say. But bitcoin seems to have already a too strong standing to fade away on it on.
Another better alt coin might be a stronger obstacle than fiat. But bitcoin can always adopt any improvements.

Can governments still destroy it?
An international coordinated effort against the main exchanges and sites could indeed hurt heavily bitcoin. Even our own wallets are susceptible to attacks by virus/worms (remember Stuxnet?) and the network can also be affected. Access to it can be blocked by ISPs at governmental command. Many could evade these blocks, but the major part of the bitcoiners would give up, taking in account also the risk of sanctions. That indeed would spook major investors.
This can still happen and it will happen on troubled economies. The outcome is anyone's guess, it would depend on governmental coordination and level of effort. Governments lost similar wars (drugs, alcohol, prostitution), but bitcoin is an easier target than these activities. It's not a surprise that besides scams, governmental repression has been the main negative driver of price.

What would be the consequences of this massive adoption over the price?
I can't even imagine what would be the price of bitcoin. Forget about all the low previsions you read before.


But the genie is out of the bottle. There is nothing we can do, except tell about it.


High inflation and the end of fiat will appear because of the government lies and wish to be re-elected by saying they will give out something for free

If someone is taking drugs you don't stop fighting against him taking them because you are afraid of the hurtful withdraw symptoms when he will stop
Trading (OP)
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October 08, 2014, 02:17:58 AM
 #92

Confirmation of Russia plans to implement a complete ban of bitcoin:

http://rt.com/business/187440-bitcoin-ban-russia-cryptocurrency/

http://www.coindesk.com/russia-proposes-fines-bitcoin/

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cryptocurrency-round-russias-bitcoin-ban-internet-less-transactions-092021432.html


A very complete status of the national regulations on bitcoin can be find at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_Bitcoin_by_country

The Rock Trading Exchange forges its order books with bots, uses them to scam customers and is trying to appropriate 35000 euro from a forum member https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4975753.0
Trading (OP)
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February 08, 2015, 04:23:16 PM
 #93

Italy confirmed that currently makes little sense to implement AML to strict cryptocurrencies business: http://www.coindesk.com/italian-central-bank-no-aml-requirement-bitcoin-exchanges/

The Rock Trading Exchange forges its order books with bots, uses them to scam customers and is trying to appropriate 35000 euro from a forum member https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4975753.0
BitNerd
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February 08, 2015, 09:44:01 PM
 #94

"Fiat will lose value"

Why shouldn't a bunch of dirty paper for which an elite has a printer lose its "value"?

And btc will bring a lot of prosperity, think about running a business without all the legal bullshit and taxes.

That means lower prices, good for the poor. Capitalism is the best charity, it's what enables the poor to buy food at the market with just a little money from humble jobs.

Governments, taxes and controlled money are what mostly increases poverty.
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February 08, 2015, 11:16:29 PM
 #95

Bitcoin will be mainstream and With the ETF coming  I assume this is the right time to buy bitcoins.
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February 08, 2015, 11:19:45 PM
 #96

Lets talk about this when bitcoin goes mainstream. Maybe it will take 3 more decades for that.
If it takes more than 1 decade it will mean Bitcoin failed. By 2025 it should be competing against VISA and the rest for 1st place.
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February 13, 2015, 07:13:14 PM
 #97

Some political pressure on Hong-Kong to ban bitcoin because of the mycoin scam: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/hong-kong-shouldnt-ban-bitcoin-bad-actors/

The Rock Trading Exchange forges its order books with bots, uses them to scam customers and is trying to appropriate 35000 euro from a forum member https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4975753.0
picolo
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February 13, 2015, 07:56:43 PM
 #98

If bitcoin ever goes mainstream it will surely ruin the lifes of all the ones invested in fiat (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=180798.0). Gresham's Law will destroy their fiat savings, since everyone will want the stronger bitcoin, devaluating fiat. We'll see it happen first in the troubled economies, with high inflation and generalized suspicion on governmental money because of past problems.

And I have little doubt that bitcoin won't bring any equality, on the contrary. It will make us bitcoiners rich, but it will be at the expenses of fiat holders.

Because I doubt bitcoin will bring much prosperity, since it will establish a deflationary monetary system. But maybe it will be possible to minimize those deflationary effects:

a) Commercial banks will adopt a bitcoin fractional reserve system, lending bitcoins with only partial support on their holdings. That will allow an artificial (banking) expansion of the amount of bitcoins, thanks to the so-called banking money multiplier.
But since it will be hard to keep a trustworthy insurance of deposits (the government won't have enough bitcoins for that and can't create them), the system will be much more susceptible to runs.
And the interest will have to be high, because most people will prefer to have the bitcoins in their own wallets. So, forget about low interest rates. Well, high real interest rates (aggravated by potential deflation) can ruin any economy, since they thwart many productive investment based on credit.

b) It also might be created a bitcoin pattern, with governments printing money freely convertible in bitcoins. But I can see already the runs on the government on times of crises.

How will the central bank in depressions stimulate the economy?
It won't be possible to do any quantitative easing. Borrowing bitcoins to lend them at cheaper interest rates to the commercial banks won't be cheap.

How will the Government control massive tax evasion, especially if the anonymity of bitcoin improves?  
They will find a way, nothing has destroyed the State in more than 13 thousand years of hierarchical societies. Bitcoin won't be able to do it. It seems we will be subject to intense control of our use of the Internet in order to track our earnings and spending of bitcoins. Some we'll be able to evade it. But the majority won't.

Will the volatility of bitcoin ever end?
The increase of its users will keep bitcoin's price going up. However, because supply and demand is controlled by human perceptions and emotions, after a huge boom in price it will always come a bust. Every overshooting of the price will be followed by a general perception that the price increased too fast and, consequently, by a drop.
For volatility to end, it would be necessary a general adoption of bitcoin that would limit in percentual terms further increases of new users taking in account the already large numbers of users. Currently, since the number of users is relatively low it's easy to see its numbers increase for more than 30% in a short period. But since the numbers of bitcoin are limited (and the current rate of increase is relatively small and it will be slowly limited), the ending of volatility would also require or a stagnant GDP or a fractional reserve system based on bitcoin that would allow its banking numbers to artificially increase side by side with GDP. That won't happen for years. Volatility is here to stay for long.

Will this scenario be the future?
It's impossible to say. But bitcoin seems to have already a too strong standing to fade away on it on.
Another better alt coin might be a stronger obstacle than fiat. But bitcoin can always adopt any improvements.

Can governments still destroy it?
An international coordinated effort against the main exchanges and sites could indeed hurt heavily bitcoin. Even our own wallets are susceptible to attacks by virus/worms (remember Stuxnet?) and the network can also be affected. Access to it can be blocked by ISPs at governmental command. Many could evade these blocks, but the major part of the bitcoiners would give up, taking in account also the risk of sanctions. That indeed would spook major investors.
This can still happen and it will happen on troubled economies. The outcome is anyone's guess, it would depend on governmental coordination and level of effort. Governments lost similar wars (drugs, alcohol, prostitution), but bitcoin is an easier target than these activities. It's not a surprise that besides scams, governmental repression has been the main negative driver of price.

What would be the consequences of this massive adoption over the price?
I can't even imagine what would be the price of bitcoin. Forget about all the low previsions you read before.


But the genie is out of the bottle. There is nothing we can do, except tell about it.


The people invested in fiat are losing purchasing power in the west because of the low interest rates and the inflation of the money supply impose by the central banks.
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February 13, 2015, 09:21:30 PM
 #99

it won't go mainstream until consumers see a pressing need for it ..

Trading (OP)
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February 13, 2015, 09:56:25 PM
Last edit: February 13, 2015, 10:06:35 PM by Trading
 #100

Unless there is inflation in technical sense (that is, increase on the general level of prices), fiat currency won't lose value. It's not relevant if the monetary mass created by the central bank (M1) increases if the general monetary mass (so called M3, that includes money created by banks, that is the huge part of money) decreases because of a credit crunch, as was seen since 2008-2009. The main point of the QE is to avoid a decrease of the general monetary mass, because this would create deflation and a general depression. So, M1 is created to avoid a decrease of M3 caused by the banking credit crunch.

But if bitcoin goes mainstream, as people start dumping their fiat holdings and, therefore, increasing the demand for bitcoin and its price, that will create an increase of the monetary mass, because of the fast increase of bitcoin price. This would acelerate the decrease of value of fiat. Thus, from a fiat point of view, there would be inflation, with any unit of fiat (like 1 USD) losing its value not only to bitcoin, but also to any good.

Of course, we are (still) very far from that. Bitcoin doesn't have currently any real capacity to increase the monetary mass of any country.

The Rock Trading Exchange forges its order books with bots, uses them to scam customers and is trying to appropriate 35000 euro from a forum member https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4975753.0
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