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Question: Will one bitcoin be worth twenty dollars this year?
Yes - 176 (68.2%)
No - 49 (19%)
Maybe - 33 (12.8%)
Total Voters: 256

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Author Topic: 1 BTC = 20 USD  (Read 29086 times)
zavanky
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June 07, 2011, 11:48:27 PM
 #121

BTC is going over 24.30 now :/

Se ritieni che ti sia stato d' aiuto:
http://bc.x14.eu/sigs/d6e5aab1.png (http://bc.x14.eu/s/1042)
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MoonShadow
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June 07, 2011, 11:50:22 PM
 #122

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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June 07, 2011, 11:50:55 PM
 #123

BTC is going over 24.30 now :/

And back down.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
Goldenmaw
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June 07, 2011, 11:51:48 PM
 #124

Go, China!  Go, China!  Go!
dust
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June 08, 2011, 12:03:50 AM
 #125

I am with the super bitbulls.

I'd say USD/BTC exchange rate will be a 2 digit number i.e. 10$ - 99$ sometime in 2011, 3 digit number number sometime in 2012, 4 digit number in 2013, 5 digit number in 2014 and will "stabilise" as a 6 digit number for the rest of the decade.


I will bet 500USD + 500BTC against each of these.
Good thing no one took me up on this!! (Although it would probably still be good for me in the long run if every year was bet on)

Cryptocoin Mining Info | OTC | PGP | Twitter | freenode: dust-otc | BTC: 1F6fV4U2xnpAuKtmQD6BWpK3EuRosKzF8U
SpaceLord
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June 08, 2011, 12:09:59 AM
 #126

Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22 Cheesy

24.  Shocked Shocked
KnuttyD
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June 08, 2011, 12:18:53 AM
 #127

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

If I helped you in some way, and you feel obligated to do so, you can tip me some coin!
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Justsomeforumuser
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June 08, 2011, 12:19:18 AM
 #128

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

I used to be able to make 1 BTC a day. I was fine selling that BTC for 8$.

I now barely can generate 0.3-0.4 BTC. I want at least 20$ per BTC I produce now.


How is difficulty not having a direct effect if it means more time required for me to produce a BTC and accordingly asking the same price per time unit and thus more price per BTC unit?

Ho-Hum.
MoonShadow
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June 08, 2011, 12:23:01 AM
 #129

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

I used to be able to make 1 BTC a day. I was fine selling that BTC for 8$.

I now barely can generate 0.3-0.4 BTC. I want at least 20$ per BTC I produce now.


How is difficulty not having a direct effect if it means more time required for me to produce a BTC and accordingly asking the same price per time unit and thus more price per BTC unit?

You don't get to choose the market price, only the price for which you will sell.  The market price drives difficulty, not the other way around.  If you couldn't make what you wanted anymore, what would you do?  Drop out?  All else being the same, this would result in a drop in difficulty (no matter how small) thus making it easier for others to mine enough to profit.  The difficulty tends to follow the price by a 6 week lag.  Whatever feedback that difficulty has upon the price is so small as to be ignored.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
MoonShadow
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June 08, 2011, 12:23:53 AM
 #130

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

Really?  You guys need to stop and understand the system before you speak.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
KnuttyD
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June 08, 2011, 12:25:51 AM
 #131

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

Really?  You guys need to stop and understand the system before you speak.
Heh, it was just a wild guess  Tongue Im still learning about the system

If I helped you in some way, and you feel obligated to do so, you can tip me some coin!
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MoonShadow
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June 08, 2011, 12:27:56 AM
 #132

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

Really?  You guys need to stop and understand the system before you speak.
Heh, it was just a wild guess  Tongue Im still learning about the system

At least you could admit that.  Difficulty affects what an individual miner can earn in a day, but not the overall supply.  There is 7200 new bitcoins created each day, regardless of the difficulty or the market price.  This will cut in half in January of 2013.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
marcus_of_augustus
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June 08, 2011, 12:33:44 AM
 #133

Go, China!  Go, China!  Go!

Ha! ... China just got dealt to.

I think we are in the clear people.

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June 08, 2011, 12:36:35 AM
 #134

As far as the timing goes, it looks like this post is the winner:

I predict $20 by the end of May.

And this gets 2nd place:

$20 sometime in july, at the latest.

I win.  Cheesy
Justsomeforumuser
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June 08, 2011, 12:37:12 AM
 #135

You don't get to choose the market price, only the price for which you will sell.  

If I am the one choosing where to place my offer price wise, then I make up that part of the market at the size of my personal liquidity. Therefore I MAKE the market price with my offer.
I decide on how much I am willing to ASK(result) according to current difficulty(cause).

Difficulty => ask price of market spot "me".

As long as enough people feel the same way as me (and it might be them that do causing the uptrend, or it is simply investors/speculators buying the dips, I have no idea), we all together create a constant updrift in offers / ASK price.

Quote
The market price drives difficulty
I thought the total hashrate drove difficulty from what I read.

Quote
If you couldn't make what you wanted anymore, what would you do?
Hoard moar until either everyone does(=>price explosion again until I like it) or people drop out and thus drop difficulty(more BTC per time span make lower price acceptable).

Difficulty thus affects what price I personally am willing to accept as feasible and whether I provide liquidity in form of tradeable offers at all(instead of just putting out offers xx$ away from current place for later).

Ho-Hum.
Goldenmaw
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June 08, 2011, 12:39:31 AM
 #136

Nope.  Difficulty snaps to keep pace with price.  The more valuable bitcoins are, the more people want to mine.  Pretty simple, really.
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June 08, 2011, 12:44:31 AM
 #137

Nope.  Difficulty snaps to keep pace with price.  The more valuable bitcoins are, the more people want to mine.  Pretty simple, really.

Well the wiki says diff adjusts to the time it takes to find a block, and the more hashrate you throw at guessing for it, the more likely it becomes.

Thus it seems to me that it's the hashrate increasing difficulty, lest I completely misunderstood what's in the wiki.

I assume you saying "more people" is a roundabout way of saying more total hash per second.



In turn, I should probably add my core point again:

If you make 1 BTC a day at 10$ let's call the "attraction" is 1.

If you make 1 BTC a day at 20$ the attraction is 2, if it's 1 a day for 5$ it's 0.5, yea?

So:
If I make 1 per day for 10$, 1.
If I make 2 per day for 5$, 1.
If I make 0.5 per day for 20$, 1.
If I make 0.25 per day for 40$, 1.


So even as price quadruples, if I only make a quarter as many BTC, the "attraction", for new people or old, remains the same, because the PAY they get "per hour" of time invested just remains the same.

There might be an initial "zomgwtfbbq so many munnies per btc" moment and rush to join, but as soon as they realize how long it takes to EARN one, they will realize what that translates to in money per time..and that money per time stays relatively constant while price rises in relation unless price really explodes.
If price stays steady as difficulty explodes? People either hoard(i.e. demand or wait until a certain wage per hour comes back in) or leave, I suspect.

Ho-Hum.
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June 08, 2011, 12:46:37 AM
 #138

bitcoinmonitor.com is showing a flurry of trading activity but no real transactions.  I assume that's an error rather than the market getting into a speculative frenzy with nothing backing it up.

Do not send bitcoins to me: 16b8s7pBJ9rUmsExNW25qD5VUqVqRPZuXu
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MoonShadow
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June 08, 2011, 12:46:42 AM
 #139

Nope.  Difficulty snaps to keep pace with price.  The more valuable bitcoins are, the more people want to mine.  Pretty simple, really.

Well the wiki says diff adjusts to the time it takes to find a block, and the more hashrate you throw at guessing for it, the more likely it becomes.

Thus it seems to me that it's the hashrate increasing difficulty, lest I completely misunderstood what's in the wiki.

I assume you saying "more people" is a roundabout way of saying more total hash per second.

You completely misunderstood.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
Justsomeforumuser
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June 08, 2011, 12:53:19 AM
 #140

Quote
You completely misunderstood.

Well I read "At the desired rate of one block each 10 minutes, 2016 blocks would take exactly two weeks to find. If the previous 2016 blocks took more than two weeks to find, the difficulty is reduced. If they took less than two weeks, the difficulty is increased. The change in difficulty is in proportion to the amount of time over or under two weeks the previous 2016 blocks took to find."

as "If you have too much computing power and go to fast, we raise diff and throttle you back until the equilibrium of x blocks per time unit y is back in play".

If that's wrong, then I have no idea how to read/understand that wiki entry.

Ho-Hum.
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