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Poll
Question: Will one bitcoin be worth twenty dollars this year?
Yes - 176 (68.2%)
No - 49 (19%)
Maybe - 33 (12.8%)
Total Voters: 256

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Author Topic: 1 BTC = 20 USD  (Read 29121 times)
Alex Beckenham
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April 24, 2011, 11:20:29 AM
 #1

Since bitcoin reached $2 so quickly after the last poll, here's a new one.

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Ian Maxwell
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April 24, 2011, 12:21:02 PM
 #2

Given my record for selling low and buying high, I don't think making this sort of prediction is my strong point.

All I can say is, at the end of the year a bitcoin will be either more than $10 or less than $0.01.

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Alex Beckenham
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April 24, 2011, 12:33:22 PM
 #3

Given my record for selling low and buying high, I don't think making this sort of prediction is my strong point.

All I can say is, at the end of the year a bitcoin will be either more than $10 or less than $0.01.

Well, I'm not saying that at the end of the year it'll be worth $20, but I think at some point during the year it'll be worth $20.

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April 24, 2011, 01:51:11 PM
 #4

Given my record for selling low and buying high, I don't think making this sort of prediction is my strong point.
I'm a short seller too, lmao.

So I'm not Buying bitcoins, I'm shorting the USD. Wink

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April 24, 2011, 02:54:08 PM
 #5

This poll is much harder.  I'm bookmarking $20 for January next year.

One off NP-Hard.
Alex Beckenham
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April 24, 2011, 04:08:55 PM
 #6

This poll is much harder.  I'm bookmarking $20 for January next year.

Much closer race between the yes and no.

And I guess the people saying NO are probably finding the number of YES votes surprising.

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April 24, 2011, 05:01:42 PM
 #7

1. 75% chance of reaching 5 dollars per bitcoin.

2. 50% chance of reaching 10 dollars per bitcoin.

3. 25% chance of reaching 15 dollars per bitcoin.

4. 10% chance of reaching 20 dollars per bitcoin.

Not very confident but believed bitcoin have a non-trivial chance of reaching 20 dollars per bitcoin.

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April 24, 2011, 05:13:57 PM
 #8

Let's take it easy people, what about something more realistic like 1 BTC = 2 EUR?

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Ian Maxwell
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April 24, 2011, 06:35:14 PM
 #9

I'd say we'll easily hit KWD parity after the print article appears in Forbes, and once that happens more print articles are likely (Economist, anyone?). So 20USD isn't that much of a stretch within the year.

XAG parity, now that's a stretch.

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April 24, 2011, 06:47:36 PM
 #10

XAG parity, now that's a stretch.
XAU parity?   Grin

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April 24, 2011, 10:02:35 PM
 #11

Honestly, who DIDN'T see this coming? Why do you think so many of us have been making noise about the decimal point needing to be moved?

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Ian Maxwell
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April 24, 2011, 11:40:37 PM
 #12

Well, has Bruce put his money where his mouth is? i.e. is he using all his disposable income to buy as many bitcoins as he can? If he puts the probability of $1000 at year's end at even 10% then this is the ohvious thing to do---even if he's most interested in promotional work, he can engage in it much more efficiently by first becoming filthy rich.

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April 25, 2011, 01:02:07 AM
 #13

Bruce Wagner is telling everyone that bitcoin will worth 1000$ by year end. Yes it's a bit insane. But it just might happen! Exciting times...

Just might happen?  You're kidding, right?  To use a bit of possible world semantics, If by 'it just might happen' you mean that there's a possible world in which at the end of this year the value of a bitcoin is ~60,000% greater than it is now, then, sure.  But, that's not really saying that much, since on that sense of 'it just might happen' it also just might happen that I sprout wings.
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April 25, 2011, 01:03:21 AM
 #14

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

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April 25, 2011, 01:10:44 AM
 #15

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

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April 25, 2011, 01:16:36 AM
 #16

Hmmm. Guess I can't have too many pay in advance months for BitLotto as that 1 BTC could be expensive in the future. If this keeps up I'll have to change ticket price to .5 BTC for a new month.

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April 25, 2011, 01:40:24 AM
 #17

Hmmm. Guess I can't have too many pay in advance months for BitLotto as that 1 BTC could be expensive in the future. If this keeps up I'll have to change ticket price to .5 BTC for a new month.

Yep, guess so. Maybe change ticket price to 0.50 BTC when mtgoxUSD goes about 3.00 or 4.00.

http://bitcoinid.com/?i=f01b8f0cb92d892371d23c70bf9f7f8fa3ec3a1eabe26b63e5e9737b (http://bitcoinid.com/?i=f01b8f0cb92d892371d23c70bf9f7f8fa3ec3a1eabe26b63e5e9737b)
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April 25, 2011, 01:45:19 AM
 #18

I think $20 by the end of the year is possible.

I would bet (and I am betting) that it will reach $10 by the end of the year.  In order to ascend to $100, the software will need to be updated to support fractions below two decimals.

However, I'm like to make a couple more additional predictions.

First, that the price on MtGox will surpass $10 before the end the of year.

Second, that MtGox.com, and their US Bank account, will be seized by .gov before BTC reaches $100.

So basically, MtGox.com (and their US Bank, and possibly the Euro bank) will be seized when bitcoin is between $10 and $100.

MtGox going down, even if they have backups, will set back the price of bitcoin for some time.  We need a secondary, completely offshore (funding and withdrawals through LR and wire transfer only) exchange before this happens.  Several offshore exchanges supplemented by a network of inter-exchangers will be more robust, and necessary for a sustained increase in bitcoin price.  If MtGox is the only one, its just a bubble the feds are waiting to pop at the most painful moment.






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Alex Beckenham
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April 25, 2011, 01:50:53 AM
 #19

I agree more exchanges would be good, but Mt Gox is offshore.

So is the whitehouse and the pentagon.

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April 25, 2011, 01:53:42 AM
 #20

I agree more exchanges would be good, but Mt Gox is offshore.

So is the whitehouse and the pentagon.


It is operated from Japan.  ACH deposits go to a Chase bank account, and the web server is in kentucky (IIRC).

EDIT:  Even if the web server in kentucky is just a VPN to somewhere offshore, where the web server isn't important and can be changed in hours.  Where the bank funds (MtGox USD) are stored is the critical part.

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