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Question: Will one bitcoin be worth twenty dollars this year?
Yes - 176 (68.2%)
No - 49 (19%)
Maybe - 33 (12.8%)
Total Voters: 256

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Author Topic: 1 BTC = 20 USD  (Read 29013 times)
ribuck
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May 14, 2011, 07:19:51 PM
 #81

How does one define "millionaire" in this context?
Use base units. A million of those equals 0.01 BTC.
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May 14, 2011, 07:21:19 PM
 #82

Already trading over 8.5 btw. Tongue
Already going down.

They're more bouncy than going down or going up.

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May 14, 2011, 07:34:09 PM
 #83

Already going down.

They're more bouncy than going down or going up.

It is definitely going down: big sells are begun.
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May 14, 2011, 07:35:52 PM
 #84

This does not seem too far - fetched.

The order book looks like a Tsunami. (unless there are a lot of dark pool bids hidden)



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May 14, 2011, 10:09:40 PM
 #85

ZOMG, EVERYONE PANIC SELL!!!!!!11!!!1!11!!


Meanwhile, I'll keep buying.  Wink
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May 14, 2011, 10:26:31 PM
 #86

Next stop $5.
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May 14, 2011, 10:30:28 PM
 #87

let the corrective phase begin
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May 14, 2011, 10:51:41 PM
 #88

U'll all see that the prive will stay at 5-6 $ in 1-2 days.

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May 14, 2011, 10:54:22 PM
 #89

U'll all see that the prive will stay at 5-6 $ in 1-2 days.

Maybe we'll end the growth period in a long bull market where nothing much happens for a long time..until KABOOM!

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May 14, 2011, 11:11:33 PM
 #90

Now is the time to buy. Then sell when it hits 9$ again.

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May 14, 2011, 11:22:02 PM
 #91

Now is the time to buy. Then sell when it hits 9$ again.

I totally agree. I think $8.5 in 4 days
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May 14, 2011, 11:52:16 PM
 #92

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

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May 15, 2011, 12:01:37 AM
 #93

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.
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May 15, 2011, 12:09:02 AM
 #94

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

Those with the most bitcoins aren't really even paying attention to the price, because they aren't really interested in selling.

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May 15, 2011, 12:11:56 AM
 #95

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

I think that those people who bought them cheap, and have not sold until now, will not sell them now. I speak for myself, because I'm one of them (bought a few thousand for 0.7$). At least I hope so. Smiley

Moreover, I plan to stop watching the stock exchange within 1-2 months. It is very tiring:)

I have a feeling that the dolt who least care about their bitcoins, will be the richest in the end.
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May 15, 2011, 12:19:55 AM
 #96

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

Those with the most bitcoins aren't really even paying attention to the price, because they aren't really interested in selling.

How does that matter?  You don't need to sell many to drive things down a LOT.  Once that happens, maybe those who "aren't really interested" start thinking "crap, I could have bought a new car, now I have enough to buy new shoes".  If enough people are true believers and believe they can sell a few thousand for $200 next year, they'll hold even in a big drop, and even buy enough to bring the price back up.  It's hard to predict where things will go because it's so much psychology.

If the majority of holders got in when it was dirt cheap, then you'll see a lot less panic since they aren't really losing anything (even though they are).  The people who bought at $2 panic when it hits $3, $5 when it hits $6, etc...  People tend to be very terrified of losing money on something.  They'll hold onto losers far past their entry point just to try to break even.

But I do suspect that the holders of BTC will hold on longer than the general public in a panic since it's not really money to them but points in a video game.  And due to the younger demographics, they don't have actual obligations to pay for things, so the money is not as valuable (it's easier to risk $10,000 for $10 million on a longshot if you don't have mouths to feed, a mortgage to pay, etc...).  Add in a bit of irrationality in how high it may go (replace all money in the world), and you have even less of a panic.  The cult mentality actually helps a lot during any kind of panic that may occur.

I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.  It's super rough, so anywhere in the $2.50-10 range is probably within reason, but most outcomes are either valueless or very valuable, so it's a big risk.
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May 15, 2011, 12:21:14 AM
 #97

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

I think that those people who bought them cheap, and have not sold until now, will not sell them now. I speak for myself, because I'm one of them (bought a few thousand for 0.7$). At least I hope so. Smiley

Moreover, I plan to stop watching the stock exchange within 1-2 months. It is very tiring:)

 Grin
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May 15, 2011, 12:57:05 AM
 #98

Quote
I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.

Care to elucidate us on what those "fundamentals" may be?

Besides, "I just pulled this figure out of my backside and it seems about right."? (as fundamental as that is doesn't make it believable. Anybody who believes they have a fundamental way to value bitcoins is in la-la land. There are just impossibly many variables involved.

tomcollins
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May 15, 2011, 01:15:40 AM
 #99

Quote
I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.

Care to elucidate us on what those "fundamentals" may be?

Besides, "I just pulled this figure out of my backside and it seems about right."? (as fundamental as that is doesn't make it believable. Anybody who believes they have a fundamental way to value bitcoins is in la-la land. There are just impossibly many variables involved.


Obviously it is rough estimates.

I picked a bunch of various possible endpoints for BitCoin that weren't based on speculation.  They ranged from "be as significant as gold" to "totally worthless".  I of course had a few points in between.  I then tried to come up with the likelihood that each scenario is reached.  I tried to be somewhat pessimistic on it.  Multiply probability by value, and you get a rough value.  Then discount the longshot scenarios to account for the variance (I wouldn't risk $3,000 for a 1 in a million chance of $3 billion with no other possibility, for example).  Sum it up.  I based each scenario on actual value.  I based each likelihood based on pulling things out of my ass.

So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.
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May 15, 2011, 01:34:07 AM
 #100

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So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.

Agreed.

Okay, so you have a range of outcome scenarios and estimated a likelihood (probablity) of each of those occurring (with a pessimistic/conservative bias). Sounds like a good starting point and a worthwhile exercise. What about you put up the range of values of probabilities and we'll have something to discuss ... (yes I'm bored) ... to your benefit we may collectively come up with a better estimate on the likelihood probabilities than you on your own ....

... we'll can call it the "pizza guy analysis", after the guy who delivered 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC (maybe he did a similar thought process).

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