1 BTC = 20 USD

[Alex Beckenham]

Since bitcoin reached $2 so quickly after the last poll, here's a new one.

[Ian Maxwell]

Given my record for selling low and buying high, I don't think making this sort of prediction is my strong point.

All I can say is, at the end of the year a bitcoin will be either more than $10 or less than $0.01.

[Alex Beckenham]

Given my record for selling low and buying high, I don't think making this sort of prediction is my strong point.

All I can say is, at the end of the year a bitcoin will be either more than $10 or less than $0.01.

Well, I'm not saying that at the end of the year it'll be worth $20, but I think at some point during the year it'll be worth $20.

[deadlizard]

Given my record for selling low and buying high, I don't think making this sort of prediction is my strong point.

I'm a short seller too, lmao.

So I'm not Buying bitcoins, I'm shorting the USD.

[da2ce7]

This poll is much harder.  I'm bookmarking $20 for January next year.

[Alex Beckenham]

This poll is much harder.  I'm bookmarking $20 for January next year.

Much closer race between the yes and no.

And I guess the people saying NO are probably finding the number of YES votes surprising.

[kiba]

1. 75% chance of reaching 5 dollars per bitcoin.

2. 50% chance of reaching 10 dollars per bitcoin.

3. 25% chance of reaching 15 dollars per bitcoin.

4. 10% chance of reaching 20 dollars per bitcoin.

Not very confident but believed bitcoin have a non-trivial chance of reaching 20 dollars per bitcoin.

[goatpig]

Let's take it easy people, what about something more realistic like 1 BTC = 2 EUR?

[Ian Maxwell]

I'd say we'll easily hit KWD parity after the print article appears in Forbes, and once that happens more print articles are likely (Economist, anyone?). So 20USD isn't that much of a stretch within the year.

XAG parity, now that's a stretch.

[deadlizard]

XAG parity, now that's a stretch.

XAU parity?   

[error]

Honestly, who DIDN'T see this coming? Why do you think so many of us have been making noise about the decimal point needing to be moved?

[Ian Maxwell]

Well, has Bruce put his money where his mouth is? i.e. is he using all his disposable income to buy as many bitcoins as he can? If he puts the probability of $1000 at year's end at even 10% then this is the ohvious thing to do---even if he's most interested in promotional work, he can engage in it much more efficiently by first becoming filthy rich.

[proudhon]

Bruce Wagner is telling everyone that bitcoin will worth 1000$ by year end. Yes it's a bit insane. But it just might happen! Exciting times...

Just might happen?  You're kidding, right?  To use a bit of possible world semantics, If by 'it just might happen' you mean that there's a possible world in which at the end of this year the value of a bitcoin is ~60,000% greater than it is now, then, sure.  But, that's not really saying that much, since on that sense of 'it just might happen' it also just might happen that I sprout wings.

[kiba]

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

[proudhon]

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

[bitlotto]

Hmmm. Guess I can't have too many pay in advance months for BitLotto as that 1 BTC could be expensive in the future. If this keeps up I'll have to change ticket price to .5 BTC for a new month.

[jmonteiro]

Hmmm. Guess I can't have too many pay in advance months for BitLotto as that 1 BTC could be expensive in the future. If this keeps up I'll have to change ticket price to .5 BTC for a new month.

Yep, guess so. Maybe change ticket price to 0.50 BTC when mtgoxUSD goes about 3.00 or 4.00.

[bitcoinBull]

I think $20 by the end of the year is possible.

I would bet (and I am betting) that it will reach $10 by the end of the year.  In order to ascend to $100, the software will need to be updated to support fractions below two decimals.

However, I'm like to make a couple more additional predictions.

First, that the price on MtGox will surpass $10 before the end the of year.

Second, that MtGox.com, and their US Bank account, will be seized by .gov before BTC reaches $100.

So basically, MtGox.com (and their US Bank, and possibly the Euro bank) will be seized when bitcoin is between $10 and $100.

MtGox going down, even if they have backups, will set back the price of bitcoin for some time.  We need a secondary, completely offshore (funding and withdrawals through LR and wire transfer only) exchange before this happens.  Several offshore exchanges supplemented by a network of inter-exchangers will be more robust, and necessary for a sustained increase in bitcoin price.  If MtGox is the only one, its just a bubble the feds are waiting to pop at the most painful moment.

[Alex Beckenham]

I agree more exchanges would be good, but Mt Gox is offshore.

So is the whitehouse and the pentagon.

[bitcoinBull]

I agree more exchanges would be good, but Mt Gox is offshore.

So is the whitehouse and the pentagon.

It is operated from Japan.  ACH deposits go to a Chase bank account, and the web server is in kentucky (IIRC).

EDIT:  Even if the web server in kentucky is just a VPN to somewhere offshore, where the web server isn't important and can be changed in hours.  Where the bank funds (MtGox USD) are stored is the critical part.

[goatpig]

I agree more exchanges would be good, but Mt Gox is offshore.

So is the whitehouse and the pentagon.

It is operated from Japan.  ACH deposits go to a Chase bank account, and the web server is in kentucky (IIRC).

Aren't the USD deposit at Gox dealt in liberty reserve dollars? If anything that what I'd pick so if the gov cracks down on Gox my $$ will be fine

[Alex Beckenham]

It is operated from Japan.  ACH deposits go to a Chase bank account, and the web server is in kentucky (IIRC).

My point is, all those places are offshore. Just ask vladimir or dishwara.

[theymos]

You guys are nuts! BTC hasn't even quite reached $2. I predict a drop to $1 or less.

Anyone want to bet me that it won't go above $20?

[Terpie]

Wait for the money launderers and black market types to start using bitcoin. It'll be $20 before the end of the summer.

[bitcoinBull]

The Chase bank account is not offshore.  No entity using ACH transfers is offshore.  That's one reason why the poker sites and their banks were busted, not just proxying credit card charges as golf balls and flower bouquets, but also for processing eChecks (which are ACH debits).

Ditto for SEPA transfers.  That's the Euro version of ACH.

Wire/SWIFT transfers are the only way to electronically deposit directly to an offshore bank.


Also, the i2P exchange posted recently could be a great idea.  There is good reason to trust "i2P bitcoin-exchange USD" more than MtGox USD or LR USD, as the i2P version is more difficult to seize.




 

[FreeMoney]

Theymos, I'll bet you the price hits $20 within a year or $15 by the end of this year. Want to bet 50BTC?

[dust]

Theymos, I'll bet you the price hits $20 within a year or $15 by the end of this year. Want to bet 50BTC?

I will bet against $15 by the end of the year, 50 BTC.

Betting in BTC essentially gives the people betting on high BTC value very good odds, as the btc will be worth more if they win.

[Alex Beckenham]

The Chase bank account is not offshore.  No entity using ACH transfers is offshore.  That's one reason why the poker sites and their banks were busted, not just proxying credit card charges as golf balls and flower bouquets, but also for processing eChecks (which are ACH debits).

You're still not getting it. The Chase bank is offshore, otherwise I'd be able to jump in my car right now and drive to it, which I can't because I'd sink.

[Anonymous]

The US has military bases in over 150 countries....

[asdf]

To the bears.

less than %1 of people on this planet even know bitcoins exist! I expect that many more will discover it soon and want some. Bitcoin is on an exponential trip to the moon!

Unless bitcoin gets destroyed somehow (government) or something better comes along, I fully expect bitcoins to replace every currency on the planet. Why wouldn't they?

[Ian Maxwell]

To the bears.

Keep it coming! I can't wait to buy back in at 1.3 or so.

[S3052]

Fundamentally, there will likely be new fund inflows to buy bitcoins in the next days - given the massive news coverage.

People who sell now between 1.6 and 2.0 might be surprised if prices break above 2 $ with big momentum.

The bitcoin market is so small that a small investor can drive the value up to 3, 5, 10 $ with ease.

[dust]

I am with the super bitbulls.

I'd say USD/BTC exchange rate will be a 2 digit number i.e. 10$ - 99$ sometime in 2011, 3 digit number number sometime in 2012, 4 digit number in 2013, 5 digit number in 2014 and will "stabilise" as a 6 digit number for the rest of the decade.

I will bet 500USD + 500BTC against each of these.

[tomcollins]

I am with the super bitbulls.

I'd say USD/BTC exchange rate will be a 2 digit number i.e. 10$ - 99$ sometime in 2011, 3 digit number number sometime in 2012, 4 digit number in 2013, 5 digit number in 2014 and will "stabilise" as a 6 digit number for the rest of the decade.

Is this based on increase use of BTC or collapse of USD?

I'd be more interested in BTC/gold.

[Terpie]

The market for BTC is so insanely small right now. It really won't take much to increase the BTC/USD to above $20. What would be considered a tiny investor in conventional financial markets could singlehandedly double BTC in a day. Even though we have already seen large % increases, the total demand for BTC is still extremely low when compared to almost any other product.

[dissipate]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

[N12]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

Bitcoin is hard money and therefore it’s only natural that it is a bit difficult to acquire. In comparison with precious metals it is pretty easy to buy and secure Bitcoins, though.

What would help at this stage is reputable (non-Bitcoin) exchanges adding Bitcoin to their supply in my opinion.

With regard to the thread I think that 20 USD/BTC is probable this year.

[MoonShadow]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

How easy is it to acquire gold?

How easy is it to acquire a Credit Default Obligation?

How easy is it to acquire yellowcake uranium?

For that matter, how easy is it to aquire US FRNs?  Sure, they are common enough, but you still have to have a job and work hours for the few that you get, do you not?

[mewantsbitcoins]

I have to agree with dissipate. For non-technical people there is only one way to convert their currency into bitcoins, and that is coinpal. If there were more points of exchange like this, people would not only be trading at mt-gox/bitcoin-otc/etc, but shops would start accepting it and it would get more widely adopted in general.

It's not the matter of acquiring - it's about the ability to exchange the currency you have to BTC

[tomcollins]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

Just because it is hard to obtain now doesn't mean it always will be.  It's a bit of a chicken and the egg problem, but once anything big has a big advantage in using BTC, then the other pieces will fall into place because they will have to fall into place and there will be profit to be made.

[tomcollins]

I have to agree with dissipate. For non-technical people there is only one way to convert their currency into bitcoins, and that is coinpal. If there were more points of exchange like this, people would not only be trading at mt-gox/bitcoin-otc/etc, but shops would start accepting it and it would get more widely adopted in general.

It's not the matter of acquiring - it's about the ability to exchange the currency you have to BTC

How many people do you know who trade Forex? That takes much more wherewithal that figuring out how to use Coinpal and a Bitcoin client. The point being, it need not cater to everyman in order to have significant economic impact. But all this will come in time, it is still a fledgling project compared with something like a Forex or a PayPal...

Even so, I can go to any bank or international airport and exchange foreign currency.  I may not get the best rate, but it's super easy.

[dissipate]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

Bitcoin is hard money and therefore it’s only natural that it is a bit difficult to acquire. In comparison with precious metals it is pretty easy to buy and secure Bitcoins, though.

What would help at this stage is reputable (non-Bitcoin) exchanges adding Bitcoin to their supply in my opinion.

With regard to the thread I think that 20 USD/BTC is probable this year.

It would be a lot easier to buy BTC if online exchanges started acceping GreenDot MoneyPak and Paysafecard. That would allow anyone to go to a Walmart etc. buy a cash card and then use that to get BTC. It's better than PayPal because there are no chargebacks.

As for gold, there are actually a significant number of localized gold dealers. BTC doesn't have anywhere near that kind of local access. If it did, I would be a lot more optimistic about 20 USD/BTC.

20 USD/BTC is extremely unlikely this year.

[Prze_koles]

$20 - nope. But $10 is quite possible.

[asdf]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

Bitcoin is getting easier to acquire every month. I imagine this trend will continue, accelerating adoption. The more bitcoin usage there is, the faster it grows, at least in these early stages. This is the definition of exponential growth.

[MoonShadow]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

Bitcoin is getting easier to acquire every month. I imagine this trend will continue, accelerating adoption. The more bitcoin usage there is, the faster it grows, at least in these early stages. This is the definition of exponential growth.

Yes, Bitcoin definately benefits from the 'network effect'.  The more who adopt it, the more the meme is spread.  The more the meme is spread, the more who adopt it.  And the more who adopt it, the higher the price tends to go.  The higher the price tends to go, the more secure the system becomes.  The more secure the system becomes, the more faith current users have in the system.  The more faith the users have in the system, the more that each is willing to risk in the system.  The more that each user is willing to risk in the system, the more valuable that bitcoins become.

I expect this to continue until Bitcoin reaches an equilibrium of new users versus users leaving, at which point it will either be mainstream and stable, or an epic failure.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Something that I think a lot of people don't realise is that if bitcoin were very easy to come by and acquire they would probably be worth a lot more than they are now.

There are only 6 mill. in circulation at present, if a larger proportion of the population could easily swap in and out of bitcoins, by the simple fact of the numbers involved, it would have to be for much lower denominations of bitcoins than are currently traded. A consequence of that is the average user who is now able to get his hands on BTC 250 for U$500 would probably only be able to get a tenth as much if 10 times more people are able to buy and sell them easily, for example.

There just aren't that many to go around and the more people that drop a few bucks into BTC the higher their value must go, as long as that nominal amount of $ going into BTC per person remains approximately constant.

[FreeMoney]

Something that I think a lot of people don't realise is that if bitcoin were very easy to come by and acquire they would probably be worth a lot more than they are now.

There are only 6 mill. in circulation at present, if a larger proportion of the population could easily swap in and out of bitcoins, by the simple fact of the numbers involved, it would have to be for much lower denominations of bitcoins than are currently traded. A consequence of that is the average user who is now able to get his hands on BTC 250 for U$500 would probably only be able to get a tenth as much if 10 times more people are able to buy and sell them easily, for example.

There just aren't that many to go around and the more people that drop a few bucks into BTC the higher their value must go, as long as that nominal amount of $ going into BTC per person remains approximately constant.

At least a few people realize

[VillageChump]

I don't think this year, but next year is a possibility.

[Zamicol]

Unless bitcoin gets destroyed somehow (government) or something better comes along,

And that's why I'm voting, in the USA for 2012, for the one candidate that understands sound money...

[Enky1974]

Prices are rising exponentially driven probably by difficulty, we should have 5$ for next july and 20$ for january 2012.

[no to the gold cult]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

How easy is it to acquire gold?

How easy is it to acquire a Credit Default Obligation?

How easy is it to acquire yellowcake uranium?

Do you mean Credit Default Swap, or Collateralized Debt Obligation?

Surprisingly easy actually if you mean the first.

[FreeMoney]

Can someone tell me how BTC is going to the moon when it is still relatively difficult to acquire in the first place? I imagine there are a lot of people who think Bitcoin is really cool but don't get involved much past playing around with the small amount of BTC from the Bitcoin Faucet. Given the difficulty of acquiring BTC, I think the fact that BTC made it to almost $2 is amazing in the first place.

How easy is it to acquire gold?

How easy is it to acquire a Credit Default Obligation?

How easy is it to acquire yellowcake uranium?

Do you mean Credit Default Swap, or Collateralized Debt Obligation?

Surprisingly easy actually if you mean the first.

Can I get some with $20 on PP?

[dust]

Prices are rising exponentially driven probably by difficulty, we should have 5$ for next july and 20$ for january 2012.

Difficulty does not drive price, price drives difficulty.

[stic.man]

as probably the most lay person reading these forums I found that yes, paypal to morpheus was my first step into the game.  But since I was impatient a simple email to Mark at mtgox gave me the information to wire him some money and I was able to do it online in a matter of minutes.  It was incredibly easy.  The difficulty to me lies in trying to get smaller amounts of USD out of mtgox since you have to go through LR and that is somewhat of a hassle.  Unless of course you are moving sums over $800 which is easy because you can get a direct wire from mtgox. 

[tomcollins]

as probably the most lay person reading these forums I found that yes, paypal to morpheus was my first step into the game.  But since I was impatient a simple email to Mark at mtgox gave me the information to wire him some money and I was able to do it online in a matter of minutes.  It was incredibly easy.  The difficulty to me lies in trying to get smaller amounts of USD out of mtgox since you have to go through LR and that is somewhat of a hassle.  Unless of course you are moving sums over $800 which is easy because you can get a direct wire from mtgox. 

Having a way to automatically set up ACH transfers would be so much more useful for medium transfers.  With neteller, I gave them my routing and bank account number, they would confirm my account, and I could send money in and out super easy.

However, you are going to need to do this through a US bank, and then have to worry about all those regulations.

mtgox allows for ACH pushes, but an ACH pull would be pretty damn good to have.  My banks don't support ACH pushes, so I'm opening a new account just for this.

[fabianhjr]

Support at 3 USD per Bitcoin  by the end of april/frist 2 days of May.(Chance 85%)
Support at 4 USD per Bitcoin by mid-May.(Chance 75%)
Support at 5 USD per Bitcoin by end of may.(Chance 70%)

So I don't know why doubt it will reach 20 USD by the end of the year.

[Alex Beckenham]

I've reset this poll, now that Mt Gox has shown a $6.99 trade.

Previous results were:

yes 49 (31.2%)
no 61 (38.9%)
maybe 47 (29.9%)

[mewantsbitcoins]

I think we all know what the answer to this question is 

[Ian Maxwell]

Yeah.... my vote has changed since last time.

How about a a poll on whether 1 BTC = 20 USD before the end of Spring?

[Alex Beckenham]

Yeah.... my vote has changed since last time.

How about a a poll on whether 1 BTC = 20 USD before the end of Spring?

Or the end of Saturday?

[Jaime Frontero]

re-read the whole thread...

vladimir looks like the only close call.

i'll go with that - $100 by the end of the year.

right now it looks like $10 is a not-terribly daunting psychological barrier.  i'd say $10 by the end of the month, easy.  and $20 sometime in july, at the latest.

[FreeMoney]

Theymos, I'll bet you the price hits $20 within a year or $15 by the end of this year. Want to bet 50BTC?

I will bet against $15 by the end of the year, 50 BTC.

Betting in BTC essentially gives the people betting on high BTC value very good odds, as the btc will be worth more if they win.

Forgot to book this, want to do it now?

[Bit_Happy]

Last Price: 7.7 High:7.99 Low: 5.32 Volume: 49530

New high $7.99   
I need to start making some BTC income soon!

[Alex Beckenham]

I need to start making some BTC income soon!

Got any tech skills or photoshop guru-ness? Hit me up.

[TurboK]

The current rally has completely changed my thinking on this.

$20/BTC as soon as August, but no later than October.

If the current rate keeps up, it'll happen in 2 difficulty increases.

[dmiceman]

It`s going down from now on. It is not impossible to fall bellow 1 $/BTC to the next weekend.

You all know why: this is not a time to fill BTC with value. Nobody know about it, nobody care. Nobody use it in real life, nobody rely on it.

[gusti]

It`s going down from now on. It is not impossible to fall bellow 1 $/BTC to the next weekend.

You all know why: this is not a time to fill BTC with value. Nobody know about it, nobody care. Nobody use it in real life, nobody rely on it.

you are right, only as a favour, I will buy all your coins for $4.   

[proudhon]

I need to start making some BTC income soon!

Got any tech skills or photoshop guru-ness? Hit me up.

I've got some photoshop guru-ness.

[tomcollins]

It`s going down from now on. It is not impossible to fall bellow 1 $/BTC to the next weekend.

You all know why: this is not a time to fill BTC with value. Nobody know about it, nobody care. Nobody use it in real life, nobody rely on it.

you are right, only as a favour, I will buy all your coins for $4.   

A better play is to get an option contract to buy next week at $4.  How much would you pay for the right to buy at $4 next week per BTC?  If it's under $4, you could decline the option and just be out the money you spent on the option.

[deadlizard]

A better play is to get an option contract to buy next week at $4.  How much would you pay for the right to buy at $4 next week per BTC?  If it's under $4, you could decline the option and just be out the money you spent on the option.

if anyone's selling those options put me down for 6.184 million BTC

[MoonShadow]

It`s going down from now on. It is not impossible to fall bellow 1 $/BTC to the next weekend.

You all know why: this is not a time to fill BTC with value. Nobody know about it, nobody care. Nobody use it in real life, nobody rely on it.

you are right, only as a favour, I will buy all your coins for $4.   

He's trying to screw you, I'll offer you $4.10 for all of you coins, provided you have at least one.

[RodeoX]

It`s going down from now on. It is not impossible to fall bellow 1 $/BTC to the next weekend.

You all know why: this is not a time to fill BTC with value. Nobody know about it, nobody care. Nobody use it in real life, nobody rely on it.

you are right, only as a favour, I will buy all your coins for $4.   

He's trying to screw you, I'll offer you $4.10 for all of you coins, provided you have at least one.

I'll go $4.25, no, $20.00! well, I guess this thread is done.

[SgtSpike]

I predict $20 by the end of May.

[kiba]

75% confidence for the prediction of 20 dollars by the end of May.

[tomcollins]

75% confidence for the prediction of 20 dollars by the end of May.

Based on what?  Lots of financial gurus, very little justification.

It's very hard to predict a market built on mania and speculation rather than fundamentals.  Could be $20, could be $50, could be $4.

[kiba]

Based on what?  Lots of financial gurus, very little justification.

Don't really care.

It's very hard to predict a market built on mania and speculation rather than fundamentals.  Could be $20, could be $50, could be $4.

The fundamental is strong:

1. The forum is getting record posting rate and record users online simultaneously

2. The forum economy is growing and people are reporting that people are buying goods and services, more than ever.

3. New markets has been established and growing such as the GLBSE and the namecoin market.

[fabianhjr]

Already trading over 8.5 btw.

[tiberiandusk]

Soon this is going to be my entire wardrobe.

[MoonShadow]

Soon this is going to be my entire wardrobe.

How does one define "millionaire" in this context?  If anyone actually has a million bitcoins, their net worth is alreayd 7+ million USD.  But I doubt that anyone actually has a million bitcoins, not even Satoshi. 

[dmiceman]

Already trading over 8.5 btw.

Already going down.

[ribuck]

How does one define "millionaire" in this context?

Use base units. A million of those equals 0.01 BTC.

[kiba]

Already trading over 8.5 btw.

Already going down.

They're more bouncy than going down or going up.

[dmiceman]

Already going down.

They're more bouncy than going down or going up.

It is definitely going down: big sells are begun.

[S3052]

This does not seem too far - fetched.

The order book looks like a Tsunami. (unless there are a lot of dark pool bids hidden)

[SgtSpike]

ZOMG, EVERYONE PANIC SELL!!!!!!11!!!1!11!!


Meanwhile, I'll keep buying. 

[tomcollins]

Next stop $5.

[mjsbuddha]

let the corrective phase begin

[zimpixa]

U'll all see that the prive will stay at 5-6 $ in 1-2 days.

[kiba]

U'll all see that the prive will stay at 5-6 $ in 1-2 days.

Maybe we'll end the growth period in a long bull market where nothing much happens for a long time..until KABOOM!

[TurboK]

Now is the time to buy. Then sell when it hits 9$ again.

[rutrader]

Now is the time to buy. Then sell when it hits 9$ again.

I totally agree. I think $8.5 in 4 days

[error]

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

[tomcollins]

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

[MoonShadow]

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

Those with the most bitcoins aren't really even paying attention to the price, because they aren't really interested in selling.

[rutrader]

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

I think that those people who bought them cheap, and have not sold until now, will not sell them now. I speak for myself, because I'm one of them (bought a few thousand for 0.7$). At least I hope so.

Moreover, I plan to stop watching the stock exchange within 1-2 months. It is very tiring:)

I have a feeling that the dolt who least care about their bitcoins, will be the richest in the end.

[tomcollins]

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

Those with the most bitcoins aren't really even paying attention to the price, because they aren't really interested in selling.

How does that matter?  You don't need to sell many to drive things down a LOT.  Once that happens, maybe those who "aren't really interested" start thinking "crap, I could have bought a new car, now I have enough to buy new shoes".  If enough people are true believers and believe they can sell a few thousand for $200 next year, they'll hold even in a big drop, and even buy enough to bring the price back up.  It's hard to predict where things will go because it's so much psychology.

If the majority of holders got in when it was dirt cheap, then you'll see a lot less panic since they aren't really losing anything (even though they are).  The people who bought at $2 panic when it hits $3, $5 when it hits $6, etc...  People tend to be very terrified of losing money on something.  They'll hold onto losers far past their entry point just to try to break even.

But I do suspect that the holders of BTC will hold on longer than the general public in a panic since it's not really money to them but points in a video game.  And due to the younger demographics, they don't have actual obligations to pay for things, so the money is not as valuable (it's easier to risk $10,000 for $10 million on a longshot if you don't have mouths to feed, a mortgage to pay, etc...).  Add in a bit of irrationality in how high it may go (replace all money in the world), and you have even less of a panic.  The cult mentality actually helps a lot during any kind of panic that may occur.

I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.  It's super rough, so anywhere in the $2.50-10 range is probably within reason, but most outcomes are either valueless or very valuable, so it's a big risk.

[BitcoinStars.com]

Looking at the order book, it would only take a very small buy to drive back up to 7.50. This really is fun to watch.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

I think that those people who bought them cheap, and have not sold until now, will not sell them now. I speak for myself, because I'm one of them (bought a few thousand for 0.7$). At least I hope so.

Moreover, I plan to stop watching the stock exchange within 1-2 months. It is very tiring:)

 

[marcus_of_augustus]

I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.

Care to elucidate us on what those "fundamentals" may be?

Besides, "I just pulled this figure out of my backside and it seems about right."? (as fundamental as that is doesn't make it believable. Anybody who believes they have a fundamental way to value bitcoins is in la-la land. There are just impossibly many variables involved.

[tomcollins]

I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.

Care to elucidate us on what those "fundamentals" may be?

Besides, "I just pulled this figure out of my backside and it seems about right."? (as fundamental as that is doesn't make it believable. Anybody who believes they have a fundamental way to value bitcoins is in la-la land. There are just impossibly many variables involved.

Obviously it is rough estimates.

I picked a bunch of various possible endpoints for BitCoin that weren't based on speculation.  They ranged from "be as significant as gold" to "totally worthless".  I of course had a few points in between.  I then tried to come up with the likelihood that each scenario is reached.  I tried to be somewhat pessimistic on it.  Multiply probability by value, and you get a rough value.  Then discount the longshot scenarios to account for the variance (I wouldn't risk $3,000 for a 1 in a million chance of $3 billion with no other possibility, for example).  Sum it up.  I based each scenario on actual value.  I based each likelihood based on pulling things out of my ass.

So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.

[marcus_of_augustus]

So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.

Agreed.

Okay, so you have a range of outcome scenarios and estimated a likelihood (probablity) of each of those occurring (with a pessimistic/conservative bias). Sounds like a good starting point and a worthwhile exercise. What about you put up the range of values of probabilities and we'll have something to discuss ... (yes I'm bored) ... to your benefit we may collectively come up with a better estimate on the likelihood probabilities than you on your own ....

... we'll can call it the "pizza guy analysis", after the guy who delivered 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC (maybe he did a similar thought process).

[tomcollins]

So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.

Agreed.

Okay, so you have a range of outcome scenarios and estimated a likelihood (probablity) of each of those occurring (with a pessimistic/conservative bias). Sounds like a good starting point and a worthwhile exercise. What about you put up the range of values of probabilities and we'll have something to discuss ... (yes I'm bored) ... to your benefit we may collectively come up with a better estimate on the likelihood probabilities than you on your own ....

... we'll can call it the "pizza guy analysis", after the guy who delivered 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC (maybe he did a similar thought process).

It might be better to post estimates independently first just to make sure we don't bias each other.

I definitely consider my estimates to be a wild-ass guess.  However, it was pretty remarkable that my numbers came out to be almost exactly the mtgox price at the time, it was quite scary.

[Legion]

As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.

I'd like a million dollars, please.

[Jaime Frontero]

As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.

I'd like a million dollars, please.

holy crap.

way to totally trample on motivation, dude.

forgive me if i just ignore you forever... 

[The-miner]

i think it definately could reach $20, its weather or not the us govt fucks it up or not by then.

[DERP]

As an early investor who came across 300 BTC today, and then found a backup of his 46,850 BTC wallet, the prospect of a $20 exchange rate pleases me.

I'd like a million dollars, please.

Lets see a pic of your wallet?

Are you seriously going to try to cash out? How long do you expect it to take you to liquidate a million dollars of BTC?

[bitk]

I've started thinking bitcoins have nothing to do with gold. They are more like diamonds, with people having stashes filled with them but not releasing them too quickly or the price will drop really quickly
One thing is for sure, if old bitcoiners want to fix a maximum price, (eg 10 €) they can sell those at that price for quite a long time...

[BitcoinsWallet]

NO doubt, maybe more....

[wb3]

The problem with setting expectations or goals to high is when you fail to achieve them depression sets into the market. The enthusiasm should be commended but tempered by realistic goals. Don't hype the market, temper it.

[BitcoinsWallet]

The problem with setting expectations or goals to high is when you fail to achieve them depression sets into the market. The enthusiasm should be commended but tempered buy realistic goals. Don't hype the market, temper it.

+1

[tomcollins]

I've started thinking bitcoins have nothing to do with gold. They are more like diamonds, with people having stashes filled with them but not releasing them too quickly or the price will drop really quickly
One thing is for sure, if old bitcoiners want to fix a maximum price, (eg 10 €) they can sell those at that price for quite a long time...

This is a pretty good analogy.

Except diamonds are easier to control since they were in the hands of even fewer people.

I'm beginning to think that the rally was caused by a very small number of somewhat large investors who were trying to get in.  The market was able to absorb some of that through people selling, but that push has somewhat disappeared (at least for now).  The selling pressure is still there, so that's making the price go down just a bit.

Since the market has so few actually for sale, it takes so little to make it move up, but once that dries up, the slide back down happens.

[Basiley]

when miners impact on BTC flow was reduced[which is happen in 2-3 months, regardless mining scale, IMO], its happen.

[Alex Beckenham]

Price reached $20 on Mt Gox today.

Now let's all go back and read everyone's craaaaaaazy predictions

[Ian Maxwell]

Heh.... I checked Mt Gox a few minutes ago, price was still barely above $19, and my Dwolla deposit still hadn't arrived.

I check now, my Dwolla deposit is in, and the price has just risen again.

[Alex Beckenham]

As far as the timing goes, it looks like this post is the winner:

I predict $20 by the end of May.

And this gets 2nd place:

$20 sometime in july, at the latest.

[theymos]

You guys are nuts! BTC hasn't even quite reached $2. I predict a drop to $1 or less.

Anyone want to bet me that it won't go above $20?

Sure glad I didn't make that bet with anyone!

[KnuttyD]

Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22

[Jack of Diamonds]

Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22

Yeah, I noticed that. I was by pure coincidence depositing BTC on Mt.Gox just an hour ago.

While waiting for it to confirm & show up on their end price went up 4 bucks.

Not overly ecstatic as it was to be expected with the difficulty increase, but still ok.

[deadlizard]

Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22

you mean 24 

[MoonShadow]

Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22

you mean 24 

My prediction didn't survive 20 minutes.

[enmaku]

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

[zavanky]

BTC is going over 24.30 now :/

[MoonShadow]

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

[MoonShadow]

BTC is going over 24.30 now :/

And back down.

[Goldenmaw]

Go, China!  Go, China!  Go!

[dust]

I am with the super bitbulls.

I'd say USD/BTC exchange rate will be a 2 digit number i.e. 10$ - 99$ sometime in 2011, 3 digit number number sometime in 2012, 4 digit number in 2013, 5 digit number in 2014 and will "stabilise" as a 6 digit number for the rest of the decade.

I will bet 500USD + 500BTC against each of these.

Good thing no one took me up on this!! (Although it would probably still be good for me in the long run if every year was bet on)

[SpaceLord]

Holy tap dancing jesus we just touched 22

24. 

[KnuttyD]

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

[Justsomeforumuser]

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

I used to be able to make 1 BTC a day. I was fine selling that BTC for 8$.

I now barely can generate 0.3-0.4 BTC. I want at least 20$ per BTC I produce now.


How is difficulty not having a direct effect if it means more time required for me to produce a BTC and accordingly asking the same price per time unit and thus more price per BTC unit?

[MoonShadow]

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

I used to be able to make 1 BTC a day. I was fine selling that BTC for 8$.

I now barely can generate 0.3-0.4 BTC. I want at least 20$ per BTC I produce now.


How is difficulty not having a direct effect if it means more time required for me to produce a BTC and accordingly asking the same price per time unit and thus more price per BTC unit?

You don't get to choose the market price, only the price for which you will sell.  The market price drives difficulty, not the other way around.  If you couldn't make what you wanted anymore, what would you do?  Drop out?  All else being the same, this would result in a drop in difficulty (no matter how small) thus making it easier for others to mine enough to profit.  The difficulty tends to follow the price by a 6 week lag.  Whatever feedback that difficulty has upon the price is so small as to be ignored.

[MoonShadow]

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

Really?  You guys need to stop and understand the system before you speak.

[KnuttyD]

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

Really?  You guys need to stop and understand the system before you speak.

Heh, it was just a wild guess  Im still learning about the system

[MoonShadow]

What time did the difficulty go up? Anyone have an idea of what kind of time delay there was between the two?

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

Supply and demand?  Not sure if that has any relevance, just a thought

Really?  You guys need to stop and understand the system before you speak.

Heh, it was just a wild guess  Im still learning about the system

At least you could admit that.  Difficulty affects what an individual miner can earn in a day, but not the overall supply.  There is 7200 new bitcoins created each day, regardless of the difficulty or the market price.  This will cut in half in January of 2013.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Go, China!  Go, China!  Go!

Ha! ... China just got dealt to.

I think we are in the clear people.

[SgtSpike]

As far as the timing goes, it looks like this post is the winner:

I predict $20 by the end of May.

And this gets 2nd place:

$20 sometime in july, at the latest.

I win. 

[Justsomeforumuser]

You don't get to choose the market price, only the price for which you will sell.  

If I am the one choosing where to place my offer price wise, then I make up that part of the market at the size of my personal liquidity. Therefore I MAKE the market price with my offer.
I decide on how much I am willing to ASK(result) according to current difficulty(cause).

Difficulty => ask price of market spot "me".

As long as enough people feel the same way as me (and it might be them that do causing the uptrend, or it is simply investors/speculators buying the dips, I have no idea), we all together create a constant updrift in offers / ASK price.

The market price drives difficulty

I thought the total hashrate drove difficulty from what I read.

If you couldn't make what you wanted anymore, what would you do?

Hoard moar until either everyone does(=>price explosion again until I like it) or people drop out and thus drop difficulty(more BTC per time span make lower price acceptable).

Difficulty thus affects what price I personally am willing to accept as feasible and whether I provide liquidity in form of tradeable offers at all(instead of just putting out offers xx$ away from current place for later).

[Goldenmaw]

Nope.  Difficulty snaps to keep pace with price.  The more valuable bitcoins are, the more people want to mine.  Pretty simple, really.

[Justsomeforumuser]

Nope.  Difficulty snaps to keep pace with price.  The more valuable bitcoins are, the more people want to mine.  Pretty simple, really.

Well the wiki says diff adjusts to the time it takes to find a block, and the more hashrate you throw at guessing for it, the more likely it becomes.

Thus it seems to me that it's the hashrate increasing difficulty, lest I completely misunderstood what's in the wiki.

I assume you saying "more people" is a roundabout way of saying more total hash per second.



In turn, I should probably add my core point again:

If you make 1 BTC a day at 10$ let's call the "attraction" is 1.

If you make 1 BTC a day at 20$ the attraction is 2, if it's 1 a day for 5$ it's 0.5, yea?

So:
If I make 1 per day for 10$, 1.
If I make 2 per day for 5$, 1.
If I make 0.5 per day for 20$, 1.
If I make 0.25 per day for 40$, 1.


So even as price quadruples, if I only make a quarter as many BTC, the "attraction", for new people or old, remains the same, because the PAY they get "per hour" of time invested just remains the same.

There might be an initial "zomgwtfbbq so many munnies per btc" moment and rush to join, but as soon as they realize how long it takes to EARN one, they will realize what that translates to in money per time..and that money per time stays relatively constant while price rises in relation unless price really explodes.
If price stays steady as difficulty explodes? People either hoard(i.e. demand or wait until a certain wage per hour comes back in) or leave, I suspect.

[Cluster2k]

bitcoinmonitor.com is showing a flurry of trading activity but no real transactions.  I assume that's an error rather than the market getting into a speculative frenzy with nothing backing it up.

[MoonShadow]

Nope.  Difficulty snaps to keep pace with price.  The more valuable bitcoins are, the more people want to mine.  Pretty simple, really.

Well the wiki says diff adjusts to the time it takes to find a block, and the more hashrate you throw at guessing for it, the more likely it becomes.

Thus it seems to me that it's the hashrate increasing difficulty, lest I completely misunderstood what's in the wiki.

I assume you saying "more people" is a roundabout way of saying more total hash per second.

You completely misunderstood.

[Justsomeforumuser]

You completely misunderstood.

Well I read "At the desired rate of one block each 10 minutes, 2016 blocks would take exactly two weeks to find. If the previous 2016 blocks took more than two weeks to find, the difficulty is reduced. If they took less than two weeks, the difficulty is increased. The change in difficulty is in proportion to the amount of time over or under two weeks the previous 2016 blocks took to find."

as "If you have too much computing power and go to fast, we raise diff and throttle you back until the equilibrium of x blocks per time unit y is back in play".

If that's wrong, then I have no idea how to read/understand that wiki entry.

[bitcoinBull]

It doesn't matter.  The difficulty has no bearing on the market price, he's just confused about cause and effect.

The market price drives difficulty, not the other way around.

This is not certain.  When difficulty is higher than the price, coins are cheaper to get by buying than by mining.  So people buy, which pushes the price up.

Ergo, difficulty drives price.  And price drives difficulty.  Two-way causality.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Best way to say it, I think, is difficulty provides lower bound on price (as measured in mining input costs).

[Alex Beckenham]

Best way to say it, I think, is difficulty provides lower bound on price (as measured in mining input costs).

2nd best way to say it is with chickens and eggs.

[Comepradz]

Alex. I suggest you should start a new poll ehehe

[Genrobo]

bitcoinmonitor.com is showing a flurry of trading activity but no real transactions.  I assume that's an error rather than the market getting into a speculative frenzy with nothing backing it up.

Or deepbit's fake block chain and false transactions

[Alex Beckenham]

Alex. I suggest you should start a new poll ehehe

Well the first was $2, then this poll was $20... so I'll put one up now polling for a $200 value...

Edit: Here we go... https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13338.0

[Anders]

Wow. Last time I checked the price for one bitcoin was 8-9 dollars. Now it's $29! Holy smokers. Some people have no doubt already become super wealthy.

Now I'm sure some competing currencies will pop up. Or governments will make a total ban on this kind of digital currencies.

[notme]

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

How about now?

Edit: Just voted... ah hindsight

[MoonShadow]

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

How about now?

Edit: Just voted... ah hindsight

Dude that was stated in the context of hitting $1000 per BTC during the 2011 calender year.  Don't be a dick.

[notme]

I estimated the probability of reaching 1000 dollars per bitcoin to be 0.06%

How about now?

Edit: Just voted... ah hindsight

Dude that was stated in the context of hitting $1000 per BTC during the 2011 calender year.  Don't be a dick.

Chill out... I'm just trying to bring some perspective.

[Fatanut]

Such necroposting, much spam. I'm pretty sure a lot of people wouldn't even read what EpyxZ posted and what is his reason to do this.

Let's all take a moment to think if for just a day, we get the chance to go back to the past and buy BTC for 20$. If all of us didn't doubt at the time when Bitcoin was introduced to us, then every single person that's commenting on this thread would be millionaires and wouldn't be needing to join any signature campaign. We might even have our own signature campaign for our very own company. Funny how things turned out for doubters like us.