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Author Topic: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000  (Read 16896 times)
devphp
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September 15, 2014, 06:50:30 AM
 #261

So what's your 'realistic assessment' of adoption rates? I'm not being antagonistic here, just curious what you think.

My idea is that it's not necessarily Bitcoin that people will be adopting. Bitcoin will not be the only one. But since you asked, here is my take on how it's developing. As for crypto currencies in general, it will largely depend on how stable or rather, how unstable, the financial systems of the world and individual countries are. The trend is the financial system is losing stability, which is favorable for crypto currencies, adoption will continue to rise with more fiat pouring into crypto currencies, again, not necessarily all of it will be going to Bitcoin.
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September 15, 2014, 11:22:37 AM
 #262

Ok, so you're more or less describing the present situation - bitcoin is not the only one. So in effect you're saying no crypto can ever be worth much because there'll always be some cheaper alt around?
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September 15, 2014, 11:32:40 AM
 #263

Ok, so you're more or less describing the present situation - bitcoin is not the only one. So in effect you're saying no crypto can ever be worth much because there'll always be some cheaper alt around?

Not just cheaper, but full of features.

Basically, all crypto 2.0 technologies do the same that Bitcoin does + a bunch of other stuff, and cheaper too.

As for security of network, even this PoW crypto 1.0 as Dogecoin that now accepts hash power from all the other Scrypt coins with its auxPoW feature, can compete with Bitcoin or getting close to be able to compete. But it's 200x cheaper than Bitcoin. Network effect you tell me? School kids will give you all the network effect you need, trust me. They can't afford Bitcoin, they don't care about getting millibits, this just sounds lame, who wants to be a loser in school? But they still can get thousands of Dogecoin. Before I am blamed for pumping Dogecoin, I just want to say this is the most obvious example that Bitcoin is already outdated. Dogecoin won't last more than a few years either, but it's not outdated yet, while Bitcoin is. Future is in crypto 2.0 Proof-of-Stake currencies though.
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September 15, 2014, 11:39:12 AM
 #264

Imho the only chance BTC to get to 1 mil $ is that USA get in a such bad shape the $ drops to at least 100 times lower value.

But as I also stated, $ is just paper. A better question would be a relationship between the prices for BTC, gold, platinum and maybe other "hard to get" physical things.

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September 15, 2014, 11:45:48 AM
 #265

As for security of network, even this PoW crypto 1.0 as Dogecoin that now accepts hash power from all the other Scrypt coins with its auxPoW feature, can compete with Bitcoin or getting close to be able to compete.

Oh really it does? If you ignore 6 orders of magnitude or so, it probably does, right.

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September 15, 2014, 11:58:44 AM
 #266

@devphp, so you're saying it'll be a race to the bottom?
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September 15, 2014, 12:12:55 PM
 #267

I don't think it will reach 1 million but it can happen.

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September 15, 2014, 12:24:35 PM
 #268

When bitcoin will reach 1,000,000$ probably I'll be a grandfather and my time will be almost finished.

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devphp
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September 15, 2014, 01:52:37 PM
 #269

@devphp, so you're saying it'll be a race to the bottom?

Basically, yes. How else could it be if it's the only free market left? Free market always operates in fierce competition environment. Who can operate on smaller profit margins and deliver more, wins.

Oh really it does? If you ignore 6 orders of magnitude or so, it probably does, right.

They are completely different hash functions, you can't do that simple comparison with PH/s of Bitcoin and come up with that number.
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September 15, 2014, 03:19:39 PM
 #270

@devphp, so you're saying it'll be a race to the bottom?

Basically, yes. How else could it be if it's the only free market left? Free market always operates in fierce competition environment. Who can operate on smaller profit margins and deliver more, wins.
Being a free market, individuals are at liberty to assign value to a provably unique digital asset and as it transpires, they have assigned value to 'original' bitcoins, and very little or even zero value in many cases to clone coins. Granted some of the 'true' alts eg nxt may have some inherent value of their own, but they need to show magnitudinal (wow! Fuck!! this is going to completely revolutionise everything!!) advances above and beyond bitcoin, in the eyes of the majority, or me anyway, to be of consequential worth. It's easy, and pretty cool, to talk about crypto 2.0 being the next thing, but what Bitcoin 2, or 3, or 4, etc? Yeah I don't know the future, I could be completely wrong, who knows, but with bitcoin we're not talking about an infinitely reproducible commodity and an inevitable race to the bottom, we're talking about a limited and valued digital resource with unlimited and invaluable potential.
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September 15, 2014, 03:25:47 PM
 #271

Magnitudinal advances and developments take years to unfold. Nobody knows the future. However, we can try to identify trends, it's less boring than to stay with what has already proven itself. What has already proven itself and known by others usually has a smaller chance to be as successful as something that not many have discovered yet. Failure rate of discovering new trends is large, so take a calculated risk and play safe.
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September 15, 2014, 05:08:28 PM
 #272

The global GDP today is ~$80T. If BTC dominates 1% of it, it'll be worth the equivalent of $800B, in today's USD. That makes a single BTC worth $40K, in today's terms, assuming 20M BTCs have been mined.

Of course, by that time, today's $40K would have been inflated many times away, but their respective value compared to the total economy would be about the same.

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September 15, 2014, 05:37:16 PM
 #273

Bitcoin could mean availability of a stable price point again. It's much more transparent than the Gold market. Everyone would able to see how fiat currency is depreciating in value compared to the stable/predictable amount of bitcoins in circulation.

It is interesting to think about the changing investment environment is the world switches from unstable  fiat currencies for calculations to a stable environment of crypto currencies. True economic calculation would be possible again.

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