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Author Topic: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000  (Read 16910 times)
vuduchyld
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July 04, 2014, 08:32:01 PM
 #61

Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000

analyses never ends

Not before a period of huge economic growth or hyper-inflation.

Assuming 21 million bitcoin in circulation and a price of one million dollars for one bitcoin then the market cap of Bitcoin would be 21 thousand trillion dollars. As per google the current GDP of the world is ~98 trillion dollars today.

I agree completely.  In fact, I'd say GDP isn't even the best comparison.  It's probably more like global money supply M2.  I believe that's about 68 trillion dollars.  So by my back-of-the-napkin calculation, we're probably looking at around $32,000 for every 1% of money supply BTC represents. Frankly, it doesn't seem likely that BTC would get anywhere NEAR 1% of global money supply with all the entrenched interests dependent on fiat.  I don't even see how it could get to 1% of USD money supply, or $5300, in terms of real value.

Of course, price doesn't always reflect value.  And as we keep juicing the USD money supply, this is subject to change.  I'd suspect that it's possible if not probable that BTC could eventually cross over $5300 or even $32,000, but without massive, massive adoption and hyperinflation, it's hard to see how it could stay there.  Eventually price and value probably converge. 
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July 04, 2014, 09:23:47 PM
 #62

Technology innovation also happen fast. If bitcoin do hit 1,000,000, it may not stay there for long as incentive is strong for someone to come up with something better.

This is true to some extent, but for bitcoin to reach 7 figures, it would have to be pretty well entrenched in society/commerce. I think there is a good chance we get there, but it's hard to say when the pendulum will swing back, and when we'll have topped out for good.

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July 04, 2014, 10:26:32 PM
 #63

sure, when it will be something only old and rich collectors will be looking for

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CEG5952
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July 04, 2014, 11:51:06 PM
 #64

sure, when it will be something only old and rich collectors will be looking for

Why? It's divisible. If you're only using .00001s or .0000001s, BTC is still useful -- I imagine at that point, transaction fees will be much lower. I don't see why BTC can't be accessible still.

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July 05, 2014, 06:22:50 PM
 #65

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost

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July 05, 2014, 07:09:18 PM
 #66

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost

Just because it seems "ridiculous" does not mean it isn't possible.  Wink  Many people thought $1000 a coin was a ridiculous price and it would never get there.

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July 05, 2014, 08:09:40 PM
 #67


Hi all,

I have recently decided to invest in Bitcoins which was based upon a lot of research to get my head around the concept etc.

This was my conclusion. (very over simplified )

Its finite in size and thus deflationary (21m coins by 2040)

The method behind how they are created (mined), the security etc looks very strong and stable.

The currency is 'Owned & Controlled' for want of a better word by the whole community as opposed by a few i.e. The Fed.

The existing banking system is very complex, has taken years to build and is very expensive to maintain which means there are a lot of people who get a slice of the action. For example. A few years back I wanted to do some work in Poland from UK. The overall cost was circa £200,000 and included supplying equipment. The wall had just fallen and this transaction was risky which meant we jumped through a lot of hoops including guaranteed methods of payment. Cryptocurrency resolves that thus fees are negligible.

What does this mean is: Its simple.. its cheaper, quicker, faster, easier than traditional methods.

Ok so i then looked at global digital trade. All it takes is for main players to adopt the currency (ebay etc) and then it gains credibility amongst the masses.

It also means that a humble farmer in the outbacks of Africa or South America, with no normal banking network, could actually trade. All he needs is a wallet and a phone and a network connection.

My simple conclusion was.. the emerging markets will love it and adopt it whilst the Old Guard (The Fed, Bank of England, EEC ) will scream about a lack of regulation when what they really mean is they cant control it. Just a reminder, the latest global recession was all down to Bankers having control and manipulating for their own benefit!

So, if I have got this right then adoption will secure the currency whilst rate of adoption will affect inflation from the commodity perspective.

So this is the maths I came up with assuming you take all people from the globe as opposed to those only holding US $.

Current Cap circa $8 billion
Current Bitcoins Mined circa 12.5M
Max Bitcoins to be mined 21M by circa 2040

I then decided that 15M would be in circulation by 2018 which was how far i wanted to look forward regarding growth potential

After doing a lot of educated guessing i decided that a realistic Cap, if all goes well, would be $800 billion

This would value the bitcoin at $53,333.

So, in conclusion, if the bitcoin, in 2040 hit 1M then the market cap would be 21 Trillion. This also assumes that it is the only real cryptocurrency in existence and the others, lite, Doge etc do not have any real market Cap

If it does get anywhere near 1M then it would also mean that the FIAT based banking industry will have shrunk enormously as it would no longer be generating the high (relatively) transaction fees it needs in order to survive...

So the real question is "Will the powerful few controlling the financial sectors really allow this to happen or will they just work out how to end up owning the cryptocurrencies because they are here to stay.


My predicition is that 100,000 is very optimistic but achievable in the next 10 years. 50,000 could come along within 3/4 years though if it all comes together

P.S  since I decided to invest i have just read that the Winklevoss twins predict $800B cap market to be realistic and Draper bought the Silk road auctioned bitcoins to underwrite cryptocurrency in the 3rd world.

No stopping progress!!!



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July 06, 2014, 01:41:36 AM
 #68

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost

Just because it seems "ridiculous" does not mean it isn't possible.  Wink  Many people thought $1000 a coin was a ridiculous price and it would never get there.
Why don't you look at it this way.

Once all the BTC is mined there will be 21,000,000 BTC in circulation.

If one BTC is worth $1 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 million

If one BTC is worth $100 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $2.1 Billion

If one BTC is worth $1,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 Billion

If one BTC is worth $100,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 trillion

If one BTC is worth $1,000,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 Trillion.

As of 2012 the GDP of the US was ~15 trillion dollars and the GDP of the world was ~46 Trillion

Does it still seem plausible for bitcoin to reach $1,000,000?
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July 06, 2014, 02:22:21 AM
 #69

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost

Just because it seems "ridiculous" does not mean it isn't possible.  Wink  Many people thought $1000 a coin was a ridiculous price and it would never get there.
Why don't you look at it this way.

Once all the BTC is mined there will be 21,000,000 BTC in circulation.

If one BTC is worth $1 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 million

If one BTC is worth $100 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $2.1 Billion

If one BTC is worth $1,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 $21 Billion

If one BTC is worth $100,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $21 $2.1 trillion

If one BTC is worth $1,000,000 then the market cap of bitcoin would be $210 $21 Trillion.

As of 2012 the GDP of the US was ~15 trillion dollars and the GDP of the world was ~46 Trillion

Does it still seem plausible for bitcoin to reach $1,000,000?

Fixed.
jubalix
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July 06, 2014, 02:45:46 AM
 #70

I think it is possible and in a short time frame, why

well the shear amount of money wasted by GOV and BANKS every day is staggering and easily $21 T a year or over a few years.

This much value is left on the table and BTC can catch most of it.

What do government budgets have to do with Bitcoin and how can Bitcoin catch that money exactly? Not to mention that most governments' budgets are in deficit, the expenses cuts are under way on most urgent social needs and those cuts provoke social unrest. Of course, a lot of bureaucracy could be shrinked, but you must be out of your mind to think it would be shrinked and that money spent on Bitcoin. On what planet do you guys live? Governments don't work that way Grin Crypto currencies are direct enemies of fiat, make no mistake, this flirting with 'allowing' crypto currencies in some 'liberal' western countries is just that, flirting. They will ban it overnight if the need arises.

bitcoin disciplines central banks/gov economic policy, because now you can store your value at time (t) in bitcoin.

eg, govt tax trillions each year and make stupid deleterious decisions that loose a good portion of that, and in the process devalue my money after tax. However my money after tax's value can now be stored in BTC and that cannot be inflated by Gov action anymore.

So as a rational actor where do I put my value?

This further occurs as BTC allows jurisdictional arbitrage on a scale undreamed of before. Accordngly bad BTC "regulation" will be disciplined by massive capital outflow.




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July 06, 2014, 03:13:06 AM
 #71

There's about 14 million millionaires in the world, as i mentioned earlier

there's only 21 million bitcoins around.

obviously there will never be even 21 million persons who hold a whole bitcoin

therefore we can assume if bitcoin becomes popular, and because it's so limited, that there will never be many people that own a whole bitcoin. Probably like 100.000 or even less persons will own a full bitcoin.

So, in that sense, owners of a full bitcoin will be several times more wealthy than current day millionaires.

With that logic, a bitcoin could even be worth many times more than a million, maybe even 100 million. It might sound extremely weird but it could happen.



Most millionaires don't keep all of their assets in fiat though. Most will have it spread between a house, car, stocks, other investments, and only a small amount will be kept as actual dollars in a bank.
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July 06, 2014, 04:04:22 AM
 #72

in  Bretton Woods system  35dollar=1  ounce of gold
today   1320.90dollar=1  ounce of gold
government‘s cash printer never stop
the bitcion hit any price is possible 
but  i dont think is so quick  like 2013
arbitrage001
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July 06, 2014, 05:21:36 AM
 #73

in  Bretton Woods system  35dollar=1  ounce of gold
today   1320.90dollar=1  ounce of gold
government‘s cash printer never stop
the bitcion hit any price is possible 
but  i dont think is so quick  like 2013

Gold is tangible asset and central banks around the world use it to settle payment.

Bitcoin has not reached this stage nor will it likely to be payment settlement between countries.
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July 06, 2014, 08:10:28 AM
 #74

I think $1 million is conceivable, for sure. But I'm not convinced that Metcalfe's Law is correct, and I think the growth rate will confound a lot of the bulls -- maybe even cause many to lose hope on the long road there.

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July 06, 2014, 09:07:52 AM
 #75

There's about 14 million millionaires in the world, as i mentioned earlier

there's only 21 million bitcoins around.

obviously there will never be even 21 million persons who hold a whole bitcoin

therefore we can assume if bitcoin becomes popular, and because it's so limited, that there will never be many people that own a whole bitcoin. Probably like 100.000 or even less persons will own a full bitcoin.

So, in that sense, owners of a full bitcoin will be several times more wealthy than current day millionaires.

With that logic, a bitcoin could even be worth many times more than a million, maybe even 100 million. It might sound extremely weird but it could happen.



Most millionaires don't keep all of their assets in fiat though. Most will have it spread between a house, car, stocks, other investments, and only a small amount will be kept as actual dollars in a bank.
Bitcoin is not digital dollars. It's digital gold that can be traded for anything else at will, plus a number of other benefits. It's better than gold and fiat combined, and comes with a network for moving it around.

There is no bubble.
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July 06, 2014, 12:19:07 PM
 #76

maybe not 1 Mio but 10.000 or 40.000 , yeah possible. take a look at the stock from warren buffet  Tongue


but: you will not hold your bitcoin until its worth 1 mio , thats the bigger problem  Wink

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July 06, 2014, 12:26:41 PM
 #77

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost
Not rediculous if hyper-inflation occurs...viva le US peso?

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July 06, 2014, 12:33:42 PM
 #78

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost
Not rediculous if hyper-inflation occurs...viva le US peso?
We are always talking in todays purchasing power. Always.

There is no bubble.
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July 06, 2014, 01:57:14 PM
 #79

I think 50 to 100k is possible in the far away future if a lot of things come together
1m is just a ridiculous number, far too abstract almost
Not rediculous if hyper-inflation occurs...viva le US peso?

US peso is already happening. As soon as China abandon it, it will be over.
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July 06, 2014, 07:17:57 PM
 #80

There's about 14 million millionaires in the world, as i mentioned earlier

there's only 21 million bitcoins around.

obviously there will never be even 21 million persons who hold a whole bitcoin

therefore we can assume if bitcoin becomes popular, and because it's so limited, that there will never be many people that own a whole bitcoin. Probably like 100.000 or even less persons will own a full bitcoin.

So, in that sense, owners of a full bitcoin will be several times more wealthy than current day millionaires.

With that logic, a bitcoin could even be worth many times more than a million, maybe even 100 million. It might sound extremely weird but it could happen.



Most millionaires don't keep all of their assets in fiat though. Most will have it spread between a house, car, stocks, other investments, and only a small amount will be kept as actual dollars in a bank.
Regardless, there is no rule that says each individual needs to hold at least one bitcoin, there are plenty of people today that have less then one bitcoin

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