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Author Topic: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000  (Read 16890 times)
Skele
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July 03, 2014, 03:16:12 AM
 #41

It's possible, if :

1. Huge inflation USD
2. All people accept bitcoin  Cool
But it still having the same real value than today don't it ?

1 current Bitcoin / 650 valuable dollars   =   1 future Bitcoin / 1 000 000 useless green bills
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July 03, 2014, 03:53:34 AM
 #42

...

I do not think that it is necessary for the dollar to crash in order for BTC to reach many thousands of dollars each.  A million dollars each (no hyperinflation)?  Ahh, well I don't know enough to offer a good opinion.

Gold will likely do very well too.  As the "paper gold" burns, the real (physical gold in your own possession) will likely do very well.

Gold and BTC compliment each other very well.  Maybe we will see both knocking on $55,000...

 Smiley   Smiley
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July 03, 2014, 04:02:40 AM
 #43

I think to see $1000 or a bit more by the end of the year is more likely.

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July 03, 2014, 04:20:07 AM
 #44

In reality we all do not know.  Is it possible?  I would say yes.  Going from pennies to over a $1000 per coin is a bigger jump than going from $650 to $1,000,000.  So why not?  But we do not know how wide spread the adoption will be yet. 

All this said, my advice to anyone and everyone is to at least hold 1 BTC for 10 years or so to find out!!  Grin

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July 03, 2014, 04:24:46 AM
 #45

Going from pennies to over a $1000 per coin is a bigger jump than going from $650 to $1,000,000.

Why is that?

Going to $1000 required hundreds of millions, perhaps a couple of billions of $$$ of buying support (only some part of Bitcoins has been for sale, not the whole market cap), which could be done by a relatively small group of enthusiasts (thousands of tech geeks and tech savvy small investors).

Going to $1000 000 will require hundreds of billions up to trillions of $$$. Where would that kind of money come from?
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July 03, 2014, 04:32:39 AM
 #46

Going from pennies to over a $1000 per coin is a bigger jump than going from $650 to $1,000,000.

Why is that?

Going to $1000 required hundreds of millions, perhaps a couple of billions of $$$ of buying support (only some part of Bitcoins is for sale, not the whole market cap), which could be done by a relatively small group of enthusiasts (thousands of tech geeks and tech savvy small investors).

Going to $1000 000 will require hundreds of billions up to trillions of $$$. Where would that kind of money come from?

Where would the money come from?  Wall Street ETF's, large companies adopting it, use world-wide, just to name a few things.

My point is that the order of magnitude from pennies to $1000 is less than $650 to $1,000,000 so in theory it should be possible.  But yes, it will take more cash but there are way more players in the game too.

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devphp
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July 03, 2014, 04:41:51 AM
 #47

Where would the money come from?  Wall Street ETF's, large companies adopting it, use world-wide, just to name a few things.

My point is that the order of magnitude from pennies to $1000 is less than $650 to $1,000,000 so in theory it should be possible.  But yes, it will take more cash but there are way more players in the game too.

I am not that optimistic. Large investment funds are regulated by governments, there are strict rules what they can invest in, I don't believe they will ever be allowed to invest in crypto currencies, because crypto currencies is a direct enemy to governments' fiat currencies. Don't overestimate that California governor's legislation, that law doesn't mean investment funds are allowed to invest into Bitcoin, far from it.

Large companies selling stuff for Bitcoins sell Bitcoins back for cash which they need to cover their expenses, so they are a non-event.

China has the largest savings rate in the world, but China banned Bitcoin, and the western world's savings rate is negative, meaning there are more debts than savings. India, another country with a high savings rate, loves gold on their women, they won't embrace Bitcoin on a large scale either.

So I just don't see where that kind of demand would come from. The only way it can go to $1 mln. is a hyperinflationary scenario, but that million wouldn't go a long way in that scenario.
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July 03, 2014, 06:18:39 AM
 #48

I think it is possible and in a short time frame, why

well the shear amount of money wasted by GOV and BANKS every day is staggering and easily $21 T a year or over a few years.

This much value is left on the table and BTC can catch most of it.

The only caveat being it may not be BTC that does it rather and Alt like PeerCoin or NXT may do it in the long run (re my formative views on mining).

5 years out from now I would not be surprised to see BTC in the 300K ~ 1 M range. In fact I would be more suprised if it was not in this range.


Further you wont "see" hyper inflation, rather you wages will continually drop versus cost of living, while the bare minimum, will be just affordable. Case in point we are already in hyper inflation its just your used to it. BTC is holding value and eating GOV/Banking waste.

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devphp
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July 03, 2014, 06:40:00 AM
 #49

I think it is possible and in a short time frame, why

well the shear amount of money wasted by GOV and BANKS every day is staggering and easily $21 T a year or over a few years.

This much value is left on the table and BTC can catch most of it.

What do government budgets have to do with Bitcoin and how can Bitcoin catch that money exactly? Not to mention that most governments' budgets are in deficit, the expenses cuts are under way on most urgent social needs and those cuts provoke social unrest. Of course, a lot of bureaucracy could be shrinked, but you must be out of your mind to think it would be shrinked and that money spent on Bitcoin. On what planet do you guys live? Governments don't work that way Grin Crypto currencies are direct enemies of fiat, make no mistake, this flirting with 'allowing' crypto currencies in some 'liberal' western countries is just that, flirting. They will ban it overnight if the need arises.
jubalix
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July 03, 2014, 07:02:04 AM
 #50

Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000

analyses never ends

Not before a period of huge economic growth or hyper-inflation.

Assuming 21 million bitcoin in circulation and a price of one million dollars for one bitcoin then the market cap of Bitcoin would be 21 thousand trillion dollars. As per google the current GDP of the world is ~98 trillion dollars today.

your maths is way out

1T = 10^12

21M = 21*10^6

21M * 1M = 21^6*10^6 = 21*10E^12 = 21T

not 21 10^24 which is the fugure you gave 21 thousand trillion, rather you only need 21T.

Also remeber that BTC is buying power not GPD and GPD accumulates ever year so over 10 years you have 980T. 21T buying power in that is very doable, only about 5%.

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jubalix
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July 03, 2014, 07:05:42 AM
 #51

Ok...imagination ON
After certain point in future, when BTC acceptance is spread enough, fiat will start to dissapear as noone will want to use it. It will become exactly what it is now, useless piece of paper that noone wants. Some short time before that point, 1 BTC will be worth 1,000,000 dollars, but it wont stop there, it will continue to slide (value of fiat) that it will become 1000000000 etc. untill it becomes 0 as noone will want ANY fiat whatsoever.
So comapring BTC to $$$ after certain point is useless. Like comparing BTC to dirt. What would you say, how much dirt does 1 btc cost? 1 kilo? 10000 kilo?...it's 0 as noone will sell any BTC for dirt..ther's enough of it around.
If BTC gets to 1m per coin, fiat as we know it will dissapear adn you wont be able to compare those two.
Imagination OFF

Don't you think some alts would become also important?
Maybe different coins will have different advantages and people will trade between them.

There will always be some kind of market for alt-coins, but they are just feeding off of the innovation of Bitcoin and really do not add anything of value to the table. 

and no.

NXT and Peercoin are quite different to BTC, even Ripple is quite different (though has a serious UNL issue)

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hashman
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July 03, 2014, 08:05:08 AM
 #52

Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000

analyses never ends

We already have 13,000,000.  I guess I don't understand your question. 
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July 03, 2014, 09:26:42 AM
 #53

Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000

analyses never ends

If inflation occurs and or long in the future when were about to die or have already died
Say 60 to 80 years from now that said probably not
Unless we count in a weak currency
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July 03, 2014, 04:58:32 PM
 #54

During Wiemar hyperinflation, gold price in term of the currency went off the roof.

The value of bitcoin really depend on the  policy maker of US. If congress do something stupid, of course it will btc will go to 1,000,000.
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July 03, 2014, 06:40:54 PM
 #55

During Wiemar hyperinflation, gold price in term of the currency went off the roof.

The value of bitcoin really depend on the  policy maker of US. If congress do something stupid, of course it will btc will go to 1,000,000.

Then $1,000,000 is guaranteed! Wink

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July 03, 2014, 07:57:30 PM
 #56

For bitcoin to NOT reach $1m, it would have to fail, AND the USD would have to not die in hyperinflation... neither are likely to occur IMO.

http://mises.org/daily/3229
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July 03, 2014, 09:05:01 PM
 #57

Short of government intervention, security flaw, or out of control centralized mining, I believe it will.
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July 03, 2014, 11:27:16 PM
 #58

There's about 14 million millionaires in the world, as i mentioned earlier

there's only 21 million bitcoins around.

obviously there will never be even 21 million persons who hold a whole bitcoin

therefore we can assume if bitcoin becomes popular, and because it's so limited, that there will never be many people that own a whole bitcoin. Probably like 100.000 or even less persons will own a full bitcoin.

So, in that sense, owners of a full bitcoin will be several times more wealthy than current day millionaires.

With that logic, a bitcoin could even be worth many times more than a million, maybe even 100 million. It might sound extremely weird but it could happen.

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July 04, 2014, 01:57:25 AM
 #59

Rising population, USD steadily down forever, and fixed number of Bitcoins in mind means $1,000,000 is an irrelevant figure, because in 100 years that could be nothing.

So yes, eventually, even if it takes 3,000 years, once 1,000,000 is worthless I can see no reason how it can't happen.

If I were forced to guess when it happens, I'd say around 2020 is the earliest it can happen.
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July 04, 2014, 03:45:01 PM
 #60

Technology innovation also happen fast. If bitcoin do hit 1,000,000, it may not stay there for long as incentive is strong for someone to come up with something better.

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