IL-76 with EU contractors shoot down in Lugansk.

[niothor]

And both those scenarios come from the Russian press .

What for event need reaction from here? Why first Airplan landed with no shooting, and second with 3 missile lunch?

Why someone will need talking too much about real thngs in that cargo?

So , where there soldiers in the plane or not?
Your opinion in short,  yes or no.

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[RodeoX]

mercenaries, lol?

I worked as one and believe me, it ain't cheep. A serious fighter can cost $10K/day. There is no money in Ukraine for mercenaries. Maybe a trainer or two, but a fighting force would cost wayyyyyy more than the conscript army that Ukraine can muster.  

 

[deisik]

mercenaries, lol?

I worked as one and believe me, it ain't cheep. A serious fighter can cost $10K/day. There is no money in Ukraine for mercenaries. Maybe a trainer or two, but a fighting force would cost wayyyyyy more than the conscript army that Ukraine can muster.   

Ok, let's calculate it. In Ukraine there are at least a dozen dollar multi-billionaires. Now they decide to spend just one billion dollars for mercenaries (actually, this is a small price they may be willing to pay). So, let's take the highest payment, i.e. $10K/day. And it turns out that with just one billion dollars we can allow an army of 1000 "serious" fighters for over 3 months...

[247crypto]

I worked as one and believe me, it ain't cheep. A serious fighter can cost $10K/day.
 

Have You some connections? Kolomoysky head cost $1.500.000.

[247crypto]

So , where there soldiers in the plane or not?
Your opinion in short,  yes or no.

I have no idea. Will wait on another news.

[bryant.coleman]

Ok, let's calculate it. In Ukraine there are at least a dozen dollar multi-billionaires. Now they decide to spend just one billion dollars for mercenaries (actually, this is a small price they may be willing to pay). So, let's take the highest payment, i.e. $10K/day. And it turns out that with just one billion dollars we can allow an army of 1000 "serious" fighters for over 3 months...

Billionaires such as Poroshenko and Kolomoyskyi are not the main sponsors. They might have spent more than a billion USD, though. Remember the $ 5 billion spent by the Americans? The funding will come out of that contribution. 

[deisik]

Ok, let's calculate it. In Ukraine there are at least a dozen dollar multi-billionaires. Now they decide to spend just one billion dollars for mercenaries (actually, this is a small price they may be willing to pay). So, let's take the highest payment, i.e. $10K/day. And it turns out that with just one billion dollars we can allow an army of 1000 "serious" fighters for over 3 months...

Billionaires such as Poroshenko and Kolomoyskyi are not the main sponsors. They might have spent more than a billion USD, though. Remember the $ 5 billion spent by the Americans? The funding will come out of that contribution. 

So there should be no question of the ability to pay for seasoned fighters by the Ukrainian oligarchs, but it still remains to be seen if anyone would actually agree to fight for this country as a mercenary (save for some tear-aways indeed)?

[bryant.coleman]

So there should be no question of the ability to pay for seasoned fighters by the Ukrainian oligarchs, but it still remains to be seen if anyone would actually agree to fight for this country as a mercenary (save for some tear-aways indeed)?

Actually they need very few foreign mercenaries. Mostly to work as trainers and tacticians. Remember that Ukraine is one of the biggest suppliers of mercenaries around the world. Ukrainian mercenaries have fought in many of the recent battles, such as Syria and Libya. They just need to recruit some 100 or 200 trainers from Germany or England, and the remaining can be recruited from Ukraine itself.

[deisik]

So there should be no question of the ability to pay for seasoned fighters by the Ukrainian oligarchs, but it still remains to be seen if anyone would actually agree to fight for this country as a mercenary (save for some tear-aways indeed)?

Actually they need very few foreign mercenaries. Mostly to work as trainers and tacticians. Remember that Ukraine is one of the biggest suppliers of mercenaries around the world. Ukrainian mercenaries have fought in many of the recent battles, such as Syria and Libya. They just need to recruit some 100 or 200 trainers from Germany or England, and the remaining can be recruited from Ukraine itself.

This I agree with. But it still leaves off consideration the main question which Russians had to deal with at the time in Chechnya, i.e. what to do with highly hostile local population, and mercenaries (and even Ukrainians themselves that make up, for example, the Right Sector) which don't care a thing about civilians ("subhumans") could only aggravate the situation...

[bryant.coleman]

This I agree with. But it still leaves off consideration the main question which Russians had to deal with at the time in Chechnya, i.e. what to do with highly hostile local population, and mercenaries (and even Ukrainians themselves that make up, for example, the Right Sector) which don't care a thing about civilians ("subhumans") could only aggravate the situation...

Poroshenko has the solution for this (hostile local population):

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraines-land-agency-give-land-to-soldiers-in-the-east-for-free-352100.html

It is called population replacement. Already some 700,000 people (12% of the total population) has fled to Russia. Gradually, the remaining population will be replaced by the Western Ukrainians.

[deisik]

This I agree with. But it still leaves off consideration the main question which Russians had to deal with at the time in Chechnya, i.e. what to do with highly hostile local population, and mercenaries (and even Ukrainians themselves that make up, for example, the Right Sector) which don't care a thing about civilians ("subhumans") could only aggravate the situation...

Poroshenko has the solution for this (hostile local population):

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraines-land-agency-give-land-to-soldiers-in-the-east-for-free-352100.html

It is called population replacement. Already some 700,000 people (12% of the total population) has fled to Russia. Gradually, the remaining population will be replaced by the Western Ukrainians.

That's what the Soviets did in Eastern Prussia after WW2...

Actually, where did you get this number? 700,000 refugees is a huge number. If it has anything to do with reality, I think you confuse it with something else (e.g. people moving to Russia for seasonal works)

[bryant.coleman]

That's what the Soviets did in Eastern Prussia after WW2...

Most of the ethnic Germans had already fled Kaliningrad, by the time the Soviets took it. Stalin however, immediately relocated hundreds of thousands of Slavs to the city.

Actually, where did you get this number? 700,000 refugees is a huge number. If it has anything to do with reality, I think you confuse it with something else (e.g. people moving to Russia for seasonal works)

Here:

http://rt.com/news/ukrainians-leave-russia-border-452/

An estimated 675,000 Ukrainians left for Russia in January and February, fearing the “revolutionary chaos” brewing in Ukraine, Russia's Federal Border Guard Service said. Officials fear a growing humanitarian crisis.

[niothor]

http://rt.com/news/ukrainians-leave-russia-border-452/

An estimated 675,000 Ukrainians left for Russia in January and February, fearing the “revolutionary chaos” brewing in Ukraine, Russia's Federal Border Guard Service said. Officials fear a growing humanitarian crisis.

If 700 000 fled in January February alone , I think that the number has reached 60 millions by now according to russia today

"As of 6:00 a.m. Moscow time today, the number of registered refugees who have crossed from the territory of Ukraine stood at over 18,900 people. They are staying in the Southern, Central and Northwestern Federal Districts, as well as Sevastopol and Crimea," Russian Emergency Situations Ministry spokesman Alexander Drobyshevsky told Interfax on Thursday.


http://rbth.com/news/2014/06/19/number_of_registered_ukrainian_refugees_approaching_19000_in_russia_37548.html)

http://www.dw.de/refugee-numbers-in-ukraine-on-the-rise/a-17700146

he United Nations also named a much lower figure at the end of May. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in Geneva said a little over 10,000 Ukrainians had been displaced by the fighting

And before criticizing UN numbers don't forget that you have relied on their figures in at least 100 of your posts

[deisik]

Actually, where did you get this number? 700,000 refugees is a huge number. If it has anything to do with reality, I think you confuse it with something else (e.g. people moving to Russia for seasonal works)

Here:

http://rt.com/news/ukrainians-leave-russia-border-452/

An estimated 675,000 Ukrainians left for Russia in January and February, fearing the “revolutionary chaos” brewing in Ukraine, Russia's Federal Border Guard Service said. Officials fear a growing humanitarian crisis.

From the same article:

Ukrainians have long formed a large presence in Russia. According to the official 2010 census, 1.9 million Ukrainians were officially living in Russia, although the head of the Federal Migration Service put that figure as high as 3.5 million one year before. While those migrants were often prompted by economic concerns, political turmoil has spiked the recent rise in Ukrainians attempting to leave the country

Though the figures may actually be correct, these people are not refugees in the strict sense of the word. If it were so, we would by now see huge refugee camps in South-West Russia (which we don't)...

[bryant.coleman]

If 700 000 fled in January February alone , I think that the number has reached 60 millions by now according to russia today

Most of the 700,000 figure given by the Russia Today is undoubtedly that of the economic migrants. But at the same time, it would be wrong to say that there are less than 20,000 refugees. There are tens of thousands of people who haven't registered as refugees yet. A large portion of the Eastern Ukrainians (may be a majority of them) have their relatives in Russia. Such people have moved to their relatives' houses, but at the same time they haven't registered as refugees.

[niothor]

If 700 000 fled in January February alone , I think that the number has reached 60 millions by now according to russia today

Most of the 700,000 figure given by the Russia Today is undoubtedly that of the economic migrants. But at the same time, it would be wrong to say that there are less than 20,000 refugees. There are tens of thousands of people who haven't registered as refugees yet. A large portion of the Eastern Ukrainians (may be a majority of them) have their relatives in Russia. Such people have moved to their relatives' houses, but at the same time they haven't registered as refugees.

So basically you admit there are only about 20 000 real refugees . Thanks.

[Nemo1024]

I followed closely the news of the downed plane on Russian RTR Planeta TV channel, where they also gave an extensive analysis of the situation by a representative from the Russian Air Force. Haven't read the whole thread, so excuse me if I repeat something:

- IL-76 is very vulnerable during approach and landing. It can basically be downed by a heavy machine gun fro 5 kilometres, if the gunner targets the engines.
- For this reason the landing zone must be secured (with no military activity) in the radius of at least 10 kilometres.
- The commander who sent those planes right into the middle of a war zone was knowingly sending the plane to its death. Either that or the commander was misinformed about the situation on the ground.
- The plane was #2 in a flight group of 3 IL-76's. The first plane managed to land with minor damage, the second plane got shot down, while the third plane turned around.
- The planes a capable of transporting up 126 paratroopers (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C8%EB-76) or 3-4 heavy units, such as tanks, howitzers or APCs. The fact that only about 50 people were on board and that the plane was unlikely to fly 1/3 loaded, speaks for the possibility of the planes carrying artillery units.

Also, from http://iskatel-2014.livejournal.com/66401.html
There were reportedly an American general leading a delegation of advisors, consisting of several officials from the Brussels NATO HQ, along with 15-17 people of foreign guards on board of IL-76.