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Author Topic: Gas supply cut-off deadline of $1.95 billion by 06:00 GMT on Monday.  (Read 4225 times)
niothor
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June 16, 2014, 04:34:26 PM
 #21

Transit supply to EU trough Ukrainian territory is still present.

Are you joking? Ukraine will steal the gas destined for Europe and the Russians will shut down the gas pipeline. It will happen within the next 24 hours. Germany, Poland.etc are going to be safe, thanks to Nord Stream. Serbia, Bulgaria.etc will have to live without any gas. Some small amounts can be transported through Blue Stream.... but that will amount to less than 5% of the demand.

Bulgaria still has 2 months of gas stored. Enough time to settle this.

But I wonder , If gazprom cuts supplies to the south eastern countries , won't they be accused of breaching their contract? After al they can claim the same , they signed a contract in which Gazprom agreed to deliver gas. Bulgaria has payed for it , it's gazprom fault for not sending it.




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validium
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June 16, 2014, 04:35:30 PM
 #22

Why are they finding it hard to pay for this yet they have the money. If they cant pay all of it then at least some of the money like a quarter of it(255$ mill).
Maybe they will come to their senses once it gets shutdown.

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June 16, 2014, 04:40:08 PM
 #23


Yeah... Gazprom => Medvedev => Poutin LoL
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June 16, 2014, 04:42:27 PM
 #24

Why are they finding it hard to pay for this yet they have the money. If they cant pay all of it then at least some of the money like a quarter of it(255$ mill).
Maybe they will come to their senses once it gets shutdown.

Perhaps because simply the "stealer" is gone to Russia with tons of millions of $$ .... Viktor Ianoukovitch ... fortune estimation 'is just' around half billion USD... and all Gov members who ripped the money ....

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June 16, 2014, 04:44:06 PM
 #25

Transit supply to EU trough Ukrainian territory is still present.

Are you joking? Ukraine will steal the gas destined for Europe and the Russians will shut down the gas pipeline. It will happen within the next 24 hours. Germany, Poland.etc are going to be safe, thanks to Nord Stream. Serbia, Bulgaria.etc will have to live without any gas. Some small amounts can be transported through Blue Stream.... but that will amount to less than 5% of the demand.

Bulgaria still has 2 months of gas stored. Enough time to settle this.

But I wonder , If gazprom cuts supplies to the south eastern countries , won't they be accused of breaching their contract? After al they can claim the same , they signed a contract in which Gazprom agreed to deliver gas. Bulgaria has payed for it , it's gazprom fault for not sending it.
An optimal scenario is continue the supplies without compensations of stolen volumes. Then Naftogaz of Ukraine will be responsible for shortages, because they are transportation contractor.
niothor
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June 16, 2014, 04:56:35 PM
 #26

Transit supply to EU trough Ukrainian territory is still present.

Are you joking? Ukraine will steal the gas destined for Europe and the Russians will shut down the gas pipeline. It will happen within the next 24 hours. Germany, Poland.etc are going to be safe, thanks to Nord Stream. Serbia, Bulgaria.etc will have to live without any gas. Some small amounts can be transported through Blue Stream.... but that will amount to less than 5% of the demand.

Bulgaria still has 2 months of gas stored. Enough time to settle this.

But I wonder , If gazprom cuts supplies to the south eastern countries , won't they be accused of breaching their contract? After al they can claim the same , they signed a contract in which Gazprom agreed to deliver gas. Bulgaria has payed for it , it's gazprom fault for not sending it.
An optimal scenario is continue the supplies without compensations of stolen volumes. Then Naftogaz of Ukraine will be responsible for shortages, because they are transportation contractor.

I think that is is what happened in 2009 , right?
But there were no consequences ..


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June 16, 2014, 05:01:14 PM
 #27

Bulgaria still has 2 months of gas stored. Enough time to settle this.

But I wonder , If gazprom cuts supplies to the south eastern countries , won't they be accused of breaching their contract? After al they can claim the same , they signed a contract in which Gazprom agreed to deliver gas. Bulgaria has payed for it , it's gazprom fault for not sending it.

The contract is signed by Gazprom as well as by the transit countries. For example, Bulgaria's supplies are guaranteed by both the Gazprom and Naftogas. Both will have to pay compensations.
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June 16, 2014, 05:39:51 PM
 #28

Transit supply to EU trough Ukrainian territory is still present.

Are you joking? Ukraine will steal the gas destined for Europe and the Russians will shut down the gas pipeline. It will happen within the next 24 hours. Germany, Poland.etc are going to be safe, thanks to Nord Stream. Serbia, Bulgaria.etc will have to live without any gas. Some small amounts can be transported through Blue Stream.... but that will amount to less than 5% of the demand.

Bulgaria still has 2 months of gas stored. Enough time to settle this.

But I wonder , If gazprom cuts supplies to the south eastern countries , won't they be accused of breaching their contract? After al they can claim the same , they signed a contract in which Gazprom agreed to deliver gas. Bulgaria has payed for it , it's gazprom fault for not sending it.
An optimal scenario is continue the supplies without compensations of stolen volumes. Then Naftogaz of Ukraine will be responsible for shortages, because they are transportation contractor.
I think that is is what happened in 2009 , right?
But there were no consequences ..
Not quite. There were an additional supplies in 2009, gazprom made them to compensate shortages. Maybe I'm wrong but I it seems unlikely that gazprom will do anything like that again, in the current situation.
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June 16, 2014, 06:41:37 PM
 #29

Not quite. There were an additional supplies in 2009, gazprom made them to compensate shortages. Maybe I'm wrong but I it seems unlikely that gazprom will do anything like that again, in the current situation.

Yes. In 2009, the Ukrainians had to pay for the stolen gas. But Gazprom received the payment only after 6 months or so. But back then, the EU officials were remaining neutral, not supporting Kiev.
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June 16, 2014, 07:15:27 PM
 #30

Bulgaria still has 2 months of gas stored. Enough time to settle this.

But I wonder , If gazprom cuts supplies to the south eastern countries , won't they be accused of breaching their contract? After al they can claim the same , they signed a contract in which Gazprom agreed to deliver gas. Bulgaria has payed for it , it's gazprom fault for not sending it.

The contract is signed by Gazprom as well as by the transit countries. For example, Bulgaria's supplies are guaranteed by both the Gazprom and Naftogas. Both will have to pay compensations.


Quote
“Volumes of gas for European customers will be fully met in compliance with their contracts. Naftogaz must ensure transportation to the delivery points," Kupriyanov said earlier.

So the Eu will sue gazprom who will sue naftogaz and this will take a few years , and probably nothing will happen.

Pretty interesting fact about the percentages posted by rt



Although my country is shown with 87% dependency from Russian gas, that's 87% of the 27% we import to cover entire consumption.

According to the figures released by transgaz (national company) we need to close down only two chemical plants to sustain our consumption by our own.

Bulgaria has to make it to 2015 though

In December 2015, South Stream will deliver its first gas to Bulgaria,” Miller said.


But:

Quote
Russia will also continue to send 185 million cubic meters of gas through Ukraine to European destinations.

So , no problem for the rest of the eu?
We will only have to deal with what Ukraine takes from the transit gas? (steals)

The whole thing is a mess.


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June 16, 2014, 07:28:02 PM
 #31

^^^ Russia will send 185 million cubic meter though the Ukrainian pipeline, and the Ukrainians will steal at least one-third of that. This is a forgone conclusion. Perhaps it will convince Putin to send some support for the rebels in Lugansk and Donestk.
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June 16, 2014, 07:33:47 PM
 #32

^^^ Russia will send 185 million cubic meter though the Ukrainian pipeline, and the Ukrainians will steal at least one-third of that. This is a forgone conclusion. Perhaps it will convince Putin to send some support for the rebels in Lugansk and Donestk.

Even if they support the rebels in Lugansk , they will still need to take over the entire country to make the pipes safer.

And if they take over , they will also have to support the cost for rebuilding a demolished war country.
Not even talking about the fact that if Ukraine will join Russia , the debt will have to be waived.



Pretty interesting idea:

Why haven't the Ukrainians demanded for a 10% reduction of the debt since that gas was consumed by citizens of Crimea ? =)))
That would be hilarious


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June 16, 2014, 07:40:07 PM
 #33

^^^ Everyone knows that Putin is not interested in adding the Donbass to Russia. So here are some of his options:

1. Support the rebels in Donbass. Send in the Spetsnaz and Omon, supply them with the latest weapons such as multi-barrel rocket launchers.
2. Make a secret deal with Poroshenko. Instant gas payment + recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea in return for withdrawal of support for the rebels.
3. Kiev agrees to the deal, Putin withdraws support, Donbass is conquered by the Kiev junta. Everything is peaceful once again.  Grin
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June 16, 2014, 07:50:46 PM
 #34

^^^ Everyone knows that Putin is not interested in adding the Donbass to Russia. So here are some of his options:

1. Support the rebels in Donbass. Send in the Spetsnaz and Omon, supply them with the latest weapons such as multi-barrel rocket launchers.
2. Make a secret deal with Poroshenko. Instant gas payment + recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea in return for withdrawal of support for the rebels.
3. Kiev agrees to the deal, Putin withdraws support, Donbass is conquered by the Kiev junta. Everything is peaceful once again.  Grin

There is one tiny flaw in this plan...
How will Putin face the public reaction of leaving Russian civilians in the hands of the Kiev government when withdrawing his support from eastern Ukraine?
Even with all the propaganda he is a master in , he won't escape unscratched.

The first thing is already happening.I don't see the second one coming true.
The US will do anything in it's power that no such deal is made.

I think that they have some hidden plan and the recent changes in iran - iraq might be a clue.
How long it will take to build a pipeline from Iran to southern Europe?






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June 16, 2014, 07:54:56 PM
 #35

There is one tiny flaw in this plan...
How will Putin face the public reaction of leaving Russian civilians in the hands of the Kiev government when withdrawing his support from eastern Ukraine?

First of all he will not offer public support. The weapons will be shipped secretly. And in the end he will ask the rebel leaders to either make a deal with Poroshenko, or to escape to Russia. Probably the rebel leaders will announce in the public that their demands have been met and they are stopping the war.

How long it will take to build a pipeline from Iran to southern Europe?

Haven't heard about the Trans-Anatolian / Trans Adriatic gas pipeline?
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June 16, 2014, 07:59:26 PM
 #36



How long it will take to build a pipeline from Iran to southern Europe?

Haven't heard about the Trans-Anatolian / Trans Adriatic gas pipeline?

Both of them are to be completed in 2018 , but they are not linked to the iranian one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Pipeline
Expected   2014
So , I guess something is wrong with the project and I can't get any info on it.



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bryant.coleman
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June 17, 2014, 02:51:11 AM
 #37

^^^^ As far as I know, the Persian pipeline project was abandoned in 2012. But in case the political situation improves, there is a chance that an interlink pipeline will be built, connecting the Iranian gas fields to the Trans Anatolian Pipeline.
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June 17, 2014, 06:38:47 AM
 #38

If counter show, that gas result stolen, from Russian part will be cut supply for the same amount of gas.

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June 17, 2014, 12:40:29 PM
 #39

Hummmmmm

Gaslog stock.. look it up.
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June 17, 2014, 01:35:11 PM
 #40

Yahoo! Finally, the gas pipeline was exploded. Cheesy Waiting for "PANICPANICPANIC" screams in the Brussel. Smiley

http://business.vesti.ua/57019-pod-poltavoj-vzorvalsja-gazoprovod-urengoj-pomary-uzhgorod
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