Global Financial Crisis scenarios

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Something else to consider about those "irretrievable" coins: they may not be permanently irretrievable.  As technology progresses, it may eventually become feasible to brute force the keys in a reasonable amount of time (although I'm not exactly sure how this would work, so I could be wrong).

It's not and never will be. It's not a matter of technology. There is simply not enough energy in this solar system to brute force private keys, even in theory.

I wonder how many times humanity has claimed the impossible only to be surprised by a very rude awakening.

Let's modify that to, "Based upon our current understanding, we believe this will never happen."

Brute forcing *does* seem overwhelmingly infeasible (but NOT impossible as there is a known chance of a collision, and though this likelihood is unfathomably small, it's still there).  But, there may be alternative methods to brute forcing we haven't considered.  In *theory* an advanced quantum computer would contain all possible private key solutions -- an analogy of how such an advanced computer can be imagined is to think of a library that contains all books that ever have *and* that ever will be written, and that there simply needs to be a method to find the book you're looking for.  Accordingly, it's not so much about solving for the correct answer, but rather removing everything that's unnecessary to leave only the correct answer.  Take this with a grain a salt; I'm by no means an expert on the subject.

The Infinite Library does not exist, and quantum computers only exist in sci-fi novels. Let's discuss this when we have a working model.

Actually, small quantum computers do exist.  I don't know much about the details, but the company D-Wave claimed they did an 84-qbit (quantum bit) computation in 2012.  See wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_quantum_computing#2012

[akali]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

Will we have more recessions, financial crises, and market crashes?  Of course.  That happens every several years.  Will we have one that's as severe or worse than 2008?  Almost certainly.  Will the next one be that bad?  I really don't know, but I think it's possible.  Reserve banks are still overextended, interest rates are still ridiculously low in some countries, and some economies still aren't doing all that well.  During the next crisis, governments and reserve banks may not have the wiggle room they did in 2008.

[SHG]

In a Crisis, people and companies try to be as liquid as possible, I think if the next crisis strikes within 5 years, then Bitcoins sell off, if its 20 years away and bitcoins have more time to integrated into society then I think they could greatly increase in value.

[crazyALT47]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

[Hazir]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

[the joint]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

I love these things!  If you have time, I found the 'femto camera' video somewhat jaw-dropping...

As for this video, I found it particularly interesting - and interestingly peculiar - that it went so far as to briefly mention the application of the theory to things like landslides and more general ecological or biological patterns.   I wasn't expecting that.   Something that's a little concerning to me is that it seems that this method of analysis would be very helpful for insider trading.  Although, I suppose things would be complicated pretty quick after that, especially if it is widely known and used.  Can you imagine the financial forces of good and evil trying to out-predict each other so intensely they're predicting perturbations ike 10 bubbles from now? 

[unpure]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

[sidhujag]

All my tech and fund analysis points to a crash sometime in 2016 or a little after... should be
bullish btc.. if btc goes down (sub$400) now it will be more bullish as bigger players jump ship to crypto.

[twiifm]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

I've witnessed 3 crashes in my lifetime

[TaunSew]

Treating housing as a commodity / investment was never going to have good results for society, regardless if 2008 did or didn't happen.

[boumalo]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

You can't just inflate the USD like that without major repercussions.  You'd likely end up with massive inflation, which would cause interest rates to skyrocket and bond markets to crash, which would cause or deepen a recession, which would cause the stock market to crash anyway.  Now, things are more complicated than this, so maybe there's some way they could do it without causing so many problems (or maybe they wouldn't happen quite in this way), but I'm guessing it would be very difficult at best.

[tee-rex]

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.?  The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands.  This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility.  But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+.  Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption.  If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

Why would they sell you a pizza now?

Only a few would sell you a pizza right now for bitcoins. And those who do, accept bitcoins since they know how to get rid of them. Even if they stash them away today, they still plan how they would spend the proceedings tomorrow.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem.  Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming.  The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent.  Timing is everything.

[Erdogan]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem.  Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming.  The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent.  Timing is everything.

Correct, if you pull out now (from stocks, housing), you may loose some appreciation. What you can say, is that those assets are risky, and they become riskier.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem.  Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming.  The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent.  Timing is everything.

Correct, if you pull out now (from stocks, housing), you may loose some appreciation. What you can say, is that those assets are risky, and they become riskier.

Yes, as valuations increase, assets become riskier.  The stock market is starting to get pretty high now by historical standards, so one would think that we'll probably get at least a correction in the not-too-distant future.  But as an old saying goes, markets can behave irrationally longer than you can stay solvent.  So it's by no means a good idea to short, but it is time to be cautious.

[michaelwang33]

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But someone have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.) Here is a video: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis

Lots of people see it coming with the insane lending going on in the housing sector. So, it is not unpredictable as the mainstream media portray it.

Knowing that it's coming isn't usually the problem.  Anyone who knows anything about finance knows another crash is coming.  The problem is figuring out when, how far the markets will fall in the crash, and also how much the markets will go up before we start the descent.  Timing is everything.

Correct, if you pull out now (from stocks, housing), you may loose some appreciation. What you can say, is that those assets are risky, and they become riskier.

Yes, as valuations increase, assets become riskier.  The stock market is starting to get pretty high now by historical standards, so one would think that we'll probably get at least a correction in the not-too-distant future.  But as an old saying goes, markets can behave irrationally longer than you can stay solvent.  So it's by no means a good idea to short, but it is time to be cautious.

a more accurate statement would be, 'as the expected return on assets increase, the assets become riskier'

With that being said, as assets become more expensive, there is a greater chance of a, at least short term pull back in the price.

[lyth0s]

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  
b) skyrockets  
c) tumble down  

Take your pick:

Anyone know where this image was originally published?

And if another GFC were to happen, I don't think the general public is ready to put all of their fiat into a cryptocurrency quite yet. There is still a liquidity issue and the tech issue.

[Yakamoto]

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  
b) skyrockets  
c) tumble down  

Take your pick:

Anyone know where this image was originally published?

And if another GFC were to happen, I don't think the general public is ready to put all of their fiat into a cryptocurrency quite yet. There is still a liquidity issue and the tech issue.

I'd say more tech issue than anything.

Liquidity would -probably- be high for a while, but it would taper of as time progresses. So it would be pretty good for a while, or at least long enough for people to try and exchange a lot of fiat to Bitcoin, since a lot of the bots would still be active.

And hey, if they can't get Bitcoin, the price would skyrocket, and/or people would start turning to precious metals.