where does bitcoin stand today? (July 2014)

[Ayers]

10/100 for adoption(not for value though), and my dream is 1 satoshi = 1 dollar

[tspacepilot]

10/100 for adoption(not for value though), and my dream is 1 satoshi = 1 dollar

I think that's the dream of everyone holding even a small fraction of a bitcoin.  As long as faucets are still giving out satoshis by the hundreds, everyone can get a few hundred satoshi's and hope that's all they need to make a killing.  Personally, I don't think we'll get to 1Sat=1dollar in our lifetimes.  I'd be perfectly happy if we got to 100Satoshi's=1dollar (that'd still make me a killing )

[giveBTCpls]

I'll say about 20, a lot of people is aware of it today, but far from critical mass.

[fdiini]

I'll say about 20, a lot of people is aware of it today, but far from critical mass.

Less than 10.

Just spoke to a few bank tellers and loan officers this week and none of them are aware of bitcoin.

[Bitbirdhunt]

On a scale of 1 - 100, with 100 being full worldwide adoption and usage where does bitcoin stand?

I guess only the 15-20% of the world knows of bitcoin as of now and even less percentage of people use it for daily purposes.Some people aren't even familiar with the term.They are like what bird is that? When you talk about bitcoin infront of them LOL

[cinder]

Most people around the world still do not know bitcoin, even banker and loan officer working for bank.

So 10/100.

[Jerome?]

maybe 2-4

[SwingBTC]

2-4 seems accurate to me.

[DaveSaldana123]

Most people around the world still do not know bitcoin, even banker and loan officer working for bank.

So 10/100.

Much like 3/100.

[bitcoboss]

much less than 10% adoption and the adopters are also not using the bitcoins just holding, lots of work to be done!

[InwardContour]

10/100 for adoption(not for value though), and my dream is 1 satoshi = 1 dollar

1 satoshi = 1 dollar would be great but it's almost impossible, btw we can reach higher values than the current ATH.

[heypson]

much less than 10% adoption and the adopters are also not using the bitcoins just holding, lots of work to be done!

Probably we are less than 1% of the potential total adoption, still in the early adopters stage.

[oda.krell]

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

Agreed with your way to interpret the scale logarithmically (as opposed to linear), but I think we are less than half way there even on a log scale. Probably less than half of the first half, so I say:

More than 1, less than 25 on a (log) scale from 1 to 100.

[SueGiant]

10/100 for adoption(not for value though), and my dream is 1 satoshi = 1 dollar

1 satoshi = 1 dollar would be great but it's almost impossible, btw we can reach higher values than the current ATH.

Impossible to happen. We just wish a $600 outburst by the end of the year

[Bonam]

Technology gets adopted exponentially (or more accurately, following an S-curve). So the earlier poster who was thinking about this logarithmically had the right idea.

The way I would think about it is... look at that technology adoption curve, and then divide it into equal units from 0 to 100 on the bottom (horizontal) axis.



For example, if we were at the end of the early adopters stage (2.5% adoption), that's about 15% of the way across the graph horizontally (this could be calculated more precisely using the actual formula of the curve, just too lazy to do it now), so I'd call that 15/100 for the purposes of answering the question in the OP.

As for how to define adoption, if the goal of bitcoin is to be a currency used as much as the USD is now for example, then what we should measure is not the number of people using it (which we don't know), but the value of transactions that happen in it per unit time. BTC transactions per day are valued at around $50 M USD. I don't know what the total daily transaction volume in fiat currencies is, but US capital markets are ~$3 trillion per day. If we just compare to that, bitcoin transaction volume is 1.7 x 10^-5 of USD transaction volume.

[Poorri]

Interesting. What would be the price of BTC at the tip of thea doption curve?

[Eastwind]

much less than 10% adoption and the adopters are also not using the bitcoins just holding, lots of work to be done!

I would say much less than 0.1%. The merchants accepting BTC should also use it to pay bills, not just selling it on exchanges.

[furlong]

Less than ONE. The party hasnt even begun.

[mancala]

It stands at $400 more or less.   

[TradersWay.JC]

Bitcoin has bled into industry slightly, but needs to become adopted by more companies for it to become successful.