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Author Topic: Chrome Browser extension: MtGox trading bot  (Read 67288 times)
matthewh3
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March 26, 2012, 07:15:29 AM
 #161

Bad that I can't make heads or tails of economic theory outside of "buy low, sell high," but I immediately figure that I should have used affect instead of effect in my post. Why am I trading again? Roll Eyes

A wise man taught me "buy low, sell high" is a fool's game. "Buy high, sell higher" is much less like gambling.  Grin

I might have a go at the bot's code. Probably not super effective if too many people trade the same exact bot - once it gets noticed it becomes really easy for astute players to game.

You haven't read Goomboo's advice then?

You'd think that simple strategies like this would not work.

They actually do. Tongue

Not for long.

I strongly disagree with you proudhon.  One of the simplest trading systems is known as the Turtle Trading System.  In the system, you basically buy if the price is higher than the past 20 periods or sell when the price is lower than 20 periods.  This system generated millions for the participants and followers of it.  One of the "Market Wizards" did a test in which he hired a group of random people and taught them to trade the simple system - the majority of them made several million dollars in the following years.

If you would like to learn more about the Turtle Trading System, the complete rules can be found here:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/turtlerules.pdf

Also, here is an image of the historic performance of this system for the past 41 years.


This was found in this thread:
http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7379

Also, the great book on the Market Wizards - or some of the best traders ever:
http://www.amazon.com/Market-Wizards-Interviews-Top-Traders/dp/1592802974/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1327115564&sr=8-1

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March 26, 2012, 07:27:50 AM
 #162

turtlebot crossed with the EMAbot for android, please :-D
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March 26, 2012, 07:29:34 AM
 #163

turtlebot crossed with the EMAbot for android, please :-D

+1

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March 26, 2012, 08:34:49 AM
 #164

I have read the beginning. I am, however, pretty familiar with several such trading systems, and the anticipated results. There are definitely some spots I see in the chart where this would likely have picked a losing entry point, but the underlying system is still valid. All other things being equal, it will make money, at least for a time.

The issue is more the fact that the bot is A) predictable, and B) prevalent in a small market

In a big market simple ema bots aren't so easy to game, there's much more going on. In a small market like bitcoin, it's not terribly hard to place a trade that causes these bots to enter, and exploit the known result. (not necessarily to the bots' disadvantage, but often so)

Goomboo addresses B in one of the early posts -
Since the Bitcoin market has so little liquidity, I suggest that new trader try a variant of my system.  If a large group of people were to trade the 10/21 crossover, the entries / exits would become crowded and price would move violently around those points, hurting us all!  I suggest that people try things such as a 9 / 14 crossover or a 5 / 8 crossover.

A bunch of bots all predictably doing the same thing with not much liquidity is begging someone to exploit them. So often, we're trading in a very tight range, so it's fairly easy to place a trade that will cause a crossover (if you have enough coins to bet on it!)

Goomboo also points out that this is a trend trading system, and as such may have up to 70% losing trades. It only takes a couple bad losses to wipe out many gains in these systems. (as he also points out, the potential drawdown in such a system when used with leverage can be risky)

The basic problem with this type of simple trend system, IMO, is that you wind up trading counter-trend,   and in doing so, you set yourself up to be on the wrong side of a trade quite often. The is especially true in low liquidity, low volume markets.

I use simple technical analysis - S/R zones and Fibonacci sequences, but not as Goomboo suggests many traders do - "predictive analysis" - As he said, prediction of a market is not truly possible. Identification of potential entries, and entering on confirmation through price action when it actually occurs is more successful in my experience.

as above, I'm having a look at the bot's code to see how hard it might be to add a few indicators, especially volume, and maybe order depth to determine the real spread. Mostly I'm looking for a couple indicators for when it shouldn't take a trade.

And, looking through the Mt.Gox API, the simplest thing to do might be to take 2weiX's suggestion to make the EMA completely configurable, and to use the VWAP rather than the Open price. I don't know how one might go about backtesting it to see what its profitability and W/L ratio might be.


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matthewh3
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March 26, 2012, 08:41:39 AM
 #165


I use simple technical analysis - S/R zones and Fibonacci sequences, but not as Goomboo suggests many traders do - "predictive analysis" - As he said, prediction of a market is not truly possible. Identification of potential entries, and entering on confirmation through price action when it actually occurs is more successful in my experience.

as above, I'm having a look at the bot's code to see how hard it might be to add a few indicators, especially volume, and maybe order depth to determine the real spread. Mostly I'm looking for a couple indicators for when it shouldn't take a trade.

And, looking through the Mt.Gox API, the simplest thing to do might be to take 2weiX's suggestion to make the EMA completely configurable, and to use the VWAP rather than the Open price. I don't know how one might go about backtesting it to see what its profitability and W/L ratio might be.



Cool as if you can improve the bot or make a better bot all the better I'm also trying out 'dnnbitcoin-bot' as well with small change plus waiting for the new bitscalper (under new management) to try with small change again and would try another bot too if I could find one.

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March 26, 2012, 08:46:19 AM
 #166

where's this EMAbot for Android? That sounds very interesting.

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March 26, 2012, 08:52:08 AM
 #167

where's this EMAbot for Android? That sounds very interesting.

I like the idea of an Android bot over a browser based bot.

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March 26, 2012, 09:45:12 AM
 #168

I like the idea of an Android bot over a browser based bot.

+1

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guruvan
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March 26, 2012, 09:52:19 AM
 #169

I like the idea of an Android bot over a browser based bot.

Honestly, I'm not sure which one is scarier. Android, probably. I'm no android coding guru, but due to how android works, it seems there's a significant potential for the bot app to be inactive at an exit for a trade. A browser based bot isn't so bad, but has issues.

The best place for a bot is on a dedicated box, in a datacenter (or a mine!). I have a couple that I'm looking into.



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March 26, 2012, 10:08:42 AM
 #170

I like the idea of an Android bot over a browser based bot.

Honestly, I'm not sure which one is scarier. Android, probably. I'm no android coding guru, but due to how android works, it seems there's a significant potential for the bot app to be inactive at an exit for a trade. A browser based bot isn't so bad, but has issues.

The best place for a bot is on a dedicated box, in a datacenter (or a mine!). I have a couple that I'm looking into.




oh hells yeah.
instead of worrying about availability, I will just put the chrome bot on my mining rig.
problem solved.

still would like to use other scale (5 mins?) and longer ranges, ie 100/200
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March 26, 2012, 10:25:41 AM
 #171

oh hells yeah.
instead of worrying about availability, I will just put the chrome python bot on my mining tradingrig in the mine room which is powered and cooled and monitored 24/7
problem solved.
FTFY

lol. put the chrome bot on the mining rig.  Roll Eyes

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matthewh3
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March 26, 2012, 10:30:25 AM
 #172

I like the idea of an Android bot over a browser based bot.

Honestly, I'm not sure which one is scarier. Android, probably. I'm no android coding guru, but due to how android works, it seems there's a significant potential for the bot app to be inactive at an exit for a trade. A browser based bot isn't so bad, but has issues.

The best place for a bot is on a dedicated box, in a datacenter (or a mine!). I have a couple that I'm looking into.




oh hells yeah.
instead of worrying about availability, I will just put the chrome bot on my mining rig.
problem solved.

still would like to use other scale (5 mins?) and longer ranges, ie 100/200

I don't think a very short time scale would work well with the strategy of the bot and I think the longer time scales issue may have been solved with the bot now showing five days of ticks rather than just twenty-five hours tho don't quote me on that? 

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March 26, 2012, 10:31:34 AM
 #173

oh hells yeah.
instead of worrying about availability, I will just put the chrome python bot on my mining tradingrig in the mine room which is powered and cooled and monitored 24/7
problem solved.
FTFY

lol. put the chrome bot on the mining rig.  Roll Eyes

w/e

i don't do python. the rig runs on win7, so putting chrome on there and letting it run minimized with the bot shouldnt to much harm now.
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March 26, 2012, 11:01:42 AM
 #174

nm. I thought you were being sarcastic in your previous post. (If I would have made the same statement I would have been)


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March 26, 2012, 11:06:16 AM
 #175

nm. I thought you were being sarcastic in your previous post. (If I would have made the same statement I would have been)



so i'm no longer sarcastic, but stupid? ^^
guruvan
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March 26, 2012, 11:34:22 AM
 #176

 Roll Eyes

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March 26, 2012, 01:02:55 PM
 #177

Would it be too big a stretch to enable it to run in Chrome's background tasks as opposed to having the browser open 24/7?
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March 26, 2012, 02:15:46 PM
 #178

nm. I thought you were being sarcastic in your previous post. (If I would have made the same statement I would have been)



so i'm no longer sarcastic, but stupid? ^^
Hey, more power to you if your rigs are stable. But it just seems like an unnecessary potential point of failure.

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March 27, 2012, 05:32:29 AM
 #179

nm. I thought you were being sarcastic in your previous post. (If I would have made the same statement I would have been)



so i'm no longer sarcastic, but stupid? ^^
Hey, more power to you if your rigs are stable. But it just seems like an unnecessary potential point of failure.

that is true. my rig has been running for 8 months now with not a single reboot.
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April 01, 2012, 01:52:37 PM
 #180

Bought @ 4.76 a few days ago.  Sold today at $4.76 & $4.73  Embarrassed

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