BTC Price peak cycle ~33 weeks

[gjgjg]

I don't have permission to view that photo according to flickr

but i also think a peak is overdue and i also think bitcoin is very undervalued at the moment, it's way below most trendlines and i wonder why the price is so low right now and stays so low despite the good news lately and the time that had past since the previous peak.

fixed the flickr thing, the pics are free for all now.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/68042863@N00/14643202325/in/set-72157645251151818

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[gjgjg]

Yes, I have observed the same tendency. Per my math it is also every 30-34 weeks.
This lands the next peak somewhere between late August to early September with a price of $5000-$6400.

Here is my prediction:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/aA0zaAFD/


And here is someone else's:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/tBecsTcW/

Thanks for the info! Looks good with the log charts, much clearer:)

However, I make 33 weeks from 30th Nov to be next week (based on manual count on calendar and in MT4). Maybe this is from the different price peaks in Stamp v Btc-e. What day was the peak in Stamp? I make 40 weeks = 6 Sept.

[gjgjg]

Last bit of armchair analysis before I leave this alone:

https://flic.kr/p/o3gv4d
(green marks the lowest price in between peaks and blue marks approx the 'last low' before the next peak)

It seems that the closer the lowest price hits after a peak, the slower the next rally is from start to finish (bottom blue to pink peak). It seems the last low after peak was relatively far from each other, suggesting that the next rally will be a slowish one.

But this is really rule of thumb from 1000 paces back... its a bit dodgy but it might give an insight in the rhythm of the market.
Anyone else see a more conclusive pattern?

Last guess for a rally trigger: LTC goes on a rally and drops. People move their trading LTC back into BTC causing a price break though into $700 where all the sellers are taken out triggering the rally as there are very few sellers before the high 800 to 1000$.

OK, enough guessing! 

[fr33d0miz3r]

Here is my chart about this:

[piramida]

The only realistically possible thing that could happen which could send the price shooting up like that in the next couple of months (that I can think of at least)  would be Paypal and/or eBay announcing a roadmap or definite timeframe for integrating Bitcoin.

What did send the price from 1 to 31? from 15 to 265? from 100 to 1200? in all cases, the answer is - nothing really, just more people buying that selling. Sure, once the rise is on you can pick some good news piece and attribute the rise to it, but really, it's just backwards thinking. There's always a plethora of good news and you can never predict which one would be a tipping point.

[Raystonn]

Here is my chart about this:

1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.

[fr33d0miz3r]

1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.

The first 2 peaks on my chart are below $32 - the peak of 2011.

It doesn't matter where we should have a peak. The time for this "bubble" is over. Gonna crash hard. Have a nice bagholding, folks 

[Raystonn]

1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

This chart doesn't look remotely realistic.

The first 2 peaks on my chart are below $32 - the peak of 2011.

It doesn't matter where we should have a peak. The time for this "bubble" is over. Gonna crash hard.

What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

[fr33d0miz3r]

What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

My chart shows time between peaks, like the OP's guess.
Not the "establishing floor", just time between peaks.

Time between peaks either 214 or 235 days. That's why I drew 2 lines on previous peaks.
We have passed 214 days time point already, probably we already have started the next wave of the downtrend.
But we still have 1-2 weeks to the 235 days time point. Maybe we'll have a bubble during these weeks? I don't think so.

[Raystonn]

What your chart shows is the floor after each peak is established 214 days after the previous peak.  That would make the current price the floor for the next bubble burst.  But that assumes the days between bubbles is always constant.  I don't think anyone ever took that seriously.  It's just a coincidence.

My chart shows time between peaks, like the OP's guess.
Not the "establishing floor", just time between peaks.

Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

Ah I see what you said. Probably the $650 price could be a floor for the next "bubble", but this "bubble" has only 1-2 weeks to occur then. I don't see any "panic buying" like it was during the previous bubbles.

[Raystonn]

Look at your chart again.  The time between peaks is what you wanted to show.  But a picture is worth a thousand words, and this speaks more than you anticipated.

Ah I see what you said. Probably the $650 price could be a floor for the next "bubble", but this "bubble" has only 1-2 weeks to occur then. I don't see any "panic buying" like it was during the previous bubbles.

Right.  So we'd be stuck in a tiny range.  That's highly improbable for Bitcoin.  So this chart's interpretation is suspect.

[Raystonn]

More likely is the smart money is holding back the bubble to violate trend lines and cause dumb money to sell.  They pick up as many Bitcoins as they want, and then the bubble starts.

[fr33d0miz3r]

More likely is the smart money is holding back the bubble to violate trend lines and cause dumb money to sell.  They pick up as many Bitcoins as they want, and then the bubble starts.

Sure, but this trick will take 1-2 years I guess. Right now everyone is too optimistic about Bitcoin, so we need way more time to cause "dumb money" to sell. I think 1-2 years are enough for that.

[Raystonn]

More likely is the smart money is holding back the bubble to violate trend lines and cause dumb money to sell.  They pick up as many Bitcoins as they want, and then the bubble starts.

Sure, but this trick will take 1-2 years I guess. Right now everyone is too optimistic about Bitcoin, so we need way more time to cause "dumb money" to sell. I think 1-2 years are enough for that.

I'm not sure where you got the 1-2 years.  This kind of thing happens quickly.  If dumb money thinks the floor is collapsing, the sell off will be sharp.  It would be another SR event, followed immediately by the next bubble.

[fr33d0miz3r]

I'm not sure where you got the 1-2 years.  This kind of thing happens quickly.  If dumb money thinks the floor is collapsing, the sell off will be sharp.  It would be another SR event, followed immediately by the next bubble.

Right now the "dumb money" people think they are smart enough not to sell into another "SR event". So I expect a slow painful downtrend aimed maybe even to single digits.

[JCviggen]

1) Bitcoin has never dropped down to the previous peak after dropping from the current peak.
2) No bubble peak has ever been below the last one.

Whilst technically accurate, this is drawing conclusions off a very limited data set. Bitcoin doesn't go back 100 years does it? By definition this trend is not sustainable forever, so it will be broken sooner or later. It's not entirely irrational to think it will be broken sooner rather than later. Anything else is just opinion.

If we're talking opinion, I've never seen a bitcoin bubble commence whilst a majority of traders were expecting it. Right now everyone seems to be waiting for the inevitable bubble. I'm not sure it can happen until people start thinking it's not inevitable after all. BTC has a history of breaking a pattern when it has become obvious.

[zetaray]

33 weeks' peak may not happen this time round, but the peak will come, most likely buy the end of 2014. We can make this happen ourselves, if we all buy 1 btc at the same time.  

[Raystonn]

I'm not sure where you got the 1-2 years.  This kind of thing happens quickly.  If dumb money thinks the floor is collapsing, the sell off will be sharp.  It would be another SR event, followed immediately by the next bubble.

Right now the "dump money" people think they are smart enough not to sell into another "SR event". So I expect a slow painful downtrend aimed maybe even to single digits.

Nope.  The market definitely doesn't work that way.  Everyone tries to front-run everyone else.  Such a collapse would not be a straight line.  It would be a steep curve down.  Dumb money would sell coins cheap to the waiting smart money, then buy the coins back later once the price has been shooting up for a while.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Such a collapse would not be a straight line.  It would be a steep curve down.  

Sure, I don't say there will be a straight line. It will be a curve: waves down and corrections up. And now we have finished the first correction of this downtrend.