Anyone following the ebola outbreak?

[AnonyMint]

Luckily so far ebola's mode of transmission is apparently not yet airborne (or not enough) to be a threat to western civilization.

But mutation is possible and there are...

Correction: A microbiologist pointed out to me that if ebola mutated, the odds it wouldn't be the same virus, i.e. not as virulent because mutation is a randomized process so all variables of the pathogens genetic structure are at play. So if ebola remained virulent and became airborne, it could be reasonably assumed it was weaponized and engineered intentionally.

The coming global economic implosion could make the population weakened due to lack of nutrition which may facilitate spread of disease. Yet that still doesn't explain a potential pandemic. I am still searching for a plausible scenario.

[RedDiamond]

Now it is already started to spread from remote vil­lages to bigger cities in Sierra Leone: "Ebola is now spreading from the remote provinces and into the teeming cities such as Freetown, where 1.2 million people jostle for space. Previous outbreaks had been limited to remote villages, where containment was aided by geography. The thought of Ebola taking hold in a major city such as Freetown or Monrovia, Liberia’s capital, is a virological nightmare. Last week, the World Health Organization warned that the number of cases could hit 20,000 in West Africa."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/it-was-already-the-worst-ebola-outbreak-in-history-now-its-moving-into-africas-cities/2014/08/30/31816ff2-2ed6-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

[RedDiamond]

More ebola news, still spreading I wonder how long until the initial stages of transmission end.
Two new cases of Ebola reported in Democratic Republic of Congo
http://www.vox.com/2014/8/24/6063027/ebola-virus-found-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

According a virological analysis the outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo is a distinct and independent event, with no relationship to the outbreak in west Africa:

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/2-september-2014/en/

[NewLiberty]

More ebola news, still spreading I wonder how long until the initial stages of transmission end.
Two new cases of Ebola reported in Democratic Republic of Congo
http://www.vox.com/2014/8/24/6063027/ebola-virus-found-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

According a virological analysis the outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo is a distinct and independent event, with no relationship to the outbreak in west Africa:

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/2-september-2014/en/

This would actually be a worse case, than if it were related.


If you aren't in Africa and aren't going there, there are still some questions to consider:
Will you be able to manage your social isolation if needed?
What will be the trigger for you to know when it is needed and engage in self-quarantining?
Do you have enough Zombie apocalypse movies to watch, or is the news enough?

You do NOT want to go to a hospital if this is anywhere near your area.
Ebola is the killer of the medical profession.  Medical personnel are 1/10th the dead.
Worldwide there are about 13 doctors per 10000 people or about 1 for every 770 people.

[bryant.coleman]

there is no doubt that this shiit ebola crap is hyped.  Ban fucking cars.  It kills more ppl than gunz or ebola combined.  fuktards.

BS. Diabetes kills more people in the world when compared to Ebola. But that doesn't mean that it is more dangerous than Ebola. The problem here is that:

#1. Ebola can't be treated
#2. Ebola spreads very quickly
#3. There is no vaccine against Ebola
#4. There is a 50-90% mortality rate
#5. No one knows much about the disease, since it was discovered only a few decades ago.

[2dogs]

Ebola is the killer of the medical profession.  Medical personnel are 1/10th the dead.
Worldwide there are about 13 doctors per 10000 people or about 1 for every 770 people.

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in west Africa is unprecedented in many ways, including the high proportion of doctors, nurses, and other health care workers who have been infected.

To date, more than 240 health care workers have developed the disease in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, and more than 120 have died.

WHO estimates that, in the three hardest-hit countries, only one to two doctors are available to treat 100,000 people, and these doctors are heavily concentrated in urban areas.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/25-august-2014/en/

[bryant.coleman]

Finally the WHO has broken its silence and has published information regarding the outbreak in Senegal.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_30_ebola/en/

WHO is still claiming that there is only a single case there. But I have read newspaper reports and blogs claiming that there are many more. It will be a major setback if the latter is true. 

[johncarpe64]

surviving. This means that as the strains of the virus change and mutate they will likely be immune to antibiotics. (your have sound logic, but it is just bad for society).

Actually they do not even need to mutate, antibiotics can not kill viruses.

The fact that there is not known cure to ebola is certainly not a good thing.

Viruses are generally not able to mutate so quickly that as soon as antibiotics/vaccines are developed and distributed they are able to "fight" the treatment immediately. This type of evolution takes time, usually something like this would occur over several years, to decades, not over the course of a few weeks/months.

[NewLiberty]

surviving. This means that as the strains of the virus change and mutate they will likely be immune to antibiotics. (your have sound logic, but it is just bad for society).

Actually they do not even need to mutate, antibiotics can not kill viruses.

The fact that there is not known cure to ebola is certainly not a good thing.

Viruses are generally not able to mutate so quickly that as soon as antibiotics/vaccines are developed and distributed they are able to "fight" the treatment immediately. This type of evolution takes time, usually something like this would occur over several years, to decades, not over the course of a few weeks/months.

Usually true.
The viral load created by an ebola infection is massive, it replicates very rapidly, many generations in the few week it takes to kill someone.
It takes less than 10 virus to infect a person.
If a treatment kills 999,999 out of 1,000000 virus, the remaining one in a million may have survived do to better resistance to that treatment. 
There are 5 known strains, all deadly to humans.

[Balthazar]

It takes less than 10 virus to infect a person.

Only if there is no suitable antibodies. On the background of the ongoing infection there is no difference between 1 or 1000000 in terms of natural selection. Because virus is attacked by two vectors while probability of two lucky mutations is extremely low.

If a treatment kills 999,999 out of 1,000000 virus, the remaining one in a million may have survived do to better resistance to that treatment. 

One remaining will be destroyed by antibodies.

Resistant strains selection is usually possible only when treatment has been applied inappropriately. Too low doses or early end of treatment, for example.

[NewLiberty]

It takes less than 10 virus to infect a person.

Only if there is no suitable antibodies. On the background of the ongoing infection there is no difference between 1 or 1000000 in terms of natural selection. Because virus is attacked by two vectors while probability of two lucky mutations is extremely low.

If a treatment kills 999,999 out of 1,000000 virus, the remaining one in a million may have survived do to better resistance to that treatment. 

One remaining will be destroyed by antibodies.

Resistant strains selection is usually possible only when treatment has been applied inappropriately. Too low doses or early end of treatment, for example.

You are thinking maybe about antibiotics?

Cross strain immunity ebola has not yet been established in the wild.  There have been attempts to create it in the lab for creating vaccines.
http://www.virologyj.com/content/9/1/32
It is one of the things the WHO hope to learn and have asked the cured Americans to continue as outpatients.

Of the 5 strains, very possibly they have a common ancestor.

Ebola survivors develop antibodies against the virus and they also develop cell-mediated immunity.
“In general, the finding is it’s basically like being immunised-it would be unusual to get infection with the same strain. We are still evaluating that in our two patients.
Cross-protection is not quite as robust. There are five strains of Ebola viruses. Even though that data is not great, the feeling is there is potential for being infected if you go to a different part of Africa and get exposed to a different strain.
Ribner said the two survivors would be followed as outpatients, and as part of evaluation. “They have agreed to undergo additional testing so we can better understand immunity to Ebola virus. We are meeting with them periodically.

[RedDiamond]

Finally the WHO has broken its silence and has published information regarding the outbreak in Senegal.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_30_ebola/en/

WHO is still claiming that there is only a single case there. But I have read newspaper reports and blogs claiming that there are many more. It will be a major setback if the latter is true. 

I think WHO reports only the numbers that they have got from the respective ministries of each country. Therefore the numbers are not very reliable.

[Balthazar]

You are thinking maybe about antibiotics?

Natural selection works in the same way for virus, bacteria or mice

In case of HIV, for example, combined treatment with 2 or 3 different drugs (Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Phosphazidum) is able to stop virtually any kind of resistance mutations. But if you will try to use one drug, then resistance for this drug will be developed in matter of months.

[NewLiberty]

You are thinking maybe about antibiotics?

Natural selection works in the same way for virus, bacteria or mice

Perhaps, but treatments and immunology diverge for bacteria and virus.
This was referencing the point you made about the treatment being incomplete.

In case of HIV, for example, parallel treatment with 2 or 3 different drugs (Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Phosphazidum) is able to stop virtually any kind resistance mutations. But if you will try to use one drug, then resistance for this drug will be developed in matter of months.

There is no such treatment currently for ebola virus, so this is theoretical.  
The treatment is primarily for the resulting hemorrhagic fever and is fluid replacement, electrolytes sodium and potassium hygenic isolation and palliative care.
There is insufficient evidence to suggest that any of the antiviral treatments are either helpful or harmful to the infected.

There is much ado about providing these largely non-existing antivirals to all who ask.  They may simply hasten death, or create more resistant strains.  The two Americans basically became lab rats.  Such labs aren't in the places where this virus strikes.

Attempts to set them up have been met with some hostility including looting and threats including stealing infected bedding and material that was then distributed among the looters and sold.  Very tragic.

The amount of sterilization required to treat a single "human lab rat" is massive and disposing of the infected material is an exacting process.  To do this in the field is going to take infrastructure and education.  Its not a quick fix air drop type assistance..  There is deep distrust of foreign medicine incursion.

The Minister of the Ministry of Information, Cultural Affairs and Tourism (MICAT), Lewis G. Brown, has disclosed that four of the protesters, who recently broke into and ransacked the Ebola Quarantine Center in the West Point Township, have been tested positive of the Ebola virus.
The protesters, who said there was no Ebola in Liberia, stormed and ransacked the Ebola Quarantine Center and made away with bloodstained mattresses and bed sheets after chasing away patients who were quarantined there.

Two Japanese possibly infected, relocated to Moldova (near Ukraine):
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/747222

[bryant.coleman]

In case of HIV, for example, combined treatment with 2 or 3 different drugs (Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Phosphazidum) is able to stop virtually any kind of resistance mutations. But if you will try to use one drug, then resistance for this drug will be developed in matter of months.

Remember what happened with Tuberculosis. Due to the rampant misuse of antibiotics, various drug resistant strains are now rife in many parts of the world, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. First we had the Multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB). That progressed to Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB). And now we are hearing about Totally drug-resistant tuberculosis (TDR TB). The same can happen with HIV, and other viral diseases such as Ebola. 

[NewLiberty]

In case of HIV, for example, combined treatment with 2 or 3 different drugs (Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Phosphazidum) is able to stop virtually any kind of resistance mutations. But if you will try to use one drug, then resistance for this drug will be developed in matter of months.

Remember what happened with Tuberculosis. Due to the rampant misuse of antibiotics, various drug resistant strains are now rife in many parts of the world, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. First we had the Multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB). That progressed to Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB). And now we are hearing about Totally drug-resistant tuberculosis (TDR TB). The same can happen with HIV, and other viral diseases such as Ebola. 

Tuberculosis is bacterial, not viral.  Virus is vastly simpler organism, with different resulting immunology.

[bryant.coleman]

Tuberculosis is bacterial, not viral.  Virus is vastly simpler organism, with different resulting immunology.

I was just giving out an example. What about the Influenza virus (Orthomyxoviridae)? They mutate so often that the influenza vaccines need to be re-invented every one year or so. Even the Ebola virus itself mutates very frequently. I will disagree with you on the second part. Virus is by no means a simple organism. It is much difficult to study a virus, than doing the same on a bacteria.

[NewLiberty]

Tuberculosis is bacterial, not viral.  Virus is vastly simpler organism, with different resulting immunology.

I was just giving out an example. What about the Influenza virus (Orthomyxoviridae)? They mutate so often that the influenza vaccines need to be re-invented every one year or so. Even the Ebola virus itself mutates very frequently. I will disagree with you on the second part. Virus is by no means a simple organism. It is much difficult to study a virus, than doing the same on a bacteria.

Virus is a vastly more simple organism than bacteria.  
They have no metabolic function, maybe not "alive" depending on the definition of life.  So how to kill what may not be alive can be problematic.
What you mean by difficulty of your study though is a bit perplexing.  
Is your point, by way of example, that it may be difficult to study the number 4, just because it is not more complex?  Or just because it is smaller?
If there was a word to argue with, I'd have thought it would have been "organism" rather than "simple".
A virus doesn't have organs or even organelles really, hardly even an organism.

[Balthazar]

The same can happen with HIV, and other viral diseases such as Ebola.  

It's unknown for ebola viruses, but in case of HIV it's unlikely. Because many of drug resistance mutations are incompatible and can't be combined. Zidovudine resistance mutation results with greater susceptibility to Lamivudine. And vice versa, Lamivudine resistant strains are extremely vulnerable to Zidovudine.

In case of replacing Zidovudine monotherapy with Lamivudine monotherapy interesting thing happens. Zidovudine resistant strains are quickly mutating into Lamivudine resistant strains... But as the result, Zidovudine resistance is lost and this drug could be used again. That's why Zidovudine and Lamivudine are frequently used for combined therapy. Incompatibility of resistance mutations prevents virus from achieving resistency to both drugs at the same time.

But there is also another point which will be correct for any genome, even if there are no sustainable & incompatible mutations possible. If you're using one vector then resistance mutation appears quickly enough. But if you're using combined therapy with two different drugs then it's very unlikely to get resistant strain as the result. It's the same for HIV, Hepatitis B viruses or almost any bacteria. And greater difference between the drugs results with greater effectiveness of combination. In case of bacteria it's effective to combine antibiotics which are attacking the different subsystems of cell. In case of viruses it's effective to use drugs interfering into a various stages of infection process (e.g. zidovudine prevents RNA transcription + RAL prevents integration + APV prevents RNA splicing).

NewLiberty, again, we're talking natural selection. Natural selection works in the same way for any combination of genes, no matter alive or not. However, in case of viral genome there is much higher chance of incompatible mutations.

[bryant.coleman]

Can it get any worse than this?

Ebola-infected patient in Liberia escapes quarantine, enters crowded market

http://rt.com/news/184660-ebola-patient-escapes-liberia

Hundreds of people might have got infected. But don't just blame the patient only. The authorities are also responsible for this. The president of Liberia, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has proved to be an extremely incompetent individual. She was the one who gave the order to establish treatment centers in crowded slums (such as West Point) and other urban areas.