Anyone following the ebola outbreak?

[bellicose]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected

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[iCEBREAKER]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

The do-gooder doctor who brought ebola to NYC, forcing the negative externalities of his risky behavior on others, should be immediately sealed in a lead casket and dumped deep in the ocean.

It's bad enough that Obama waited until the horse left to close the barn door, but I'm getting really PO'd at these people make themselves feel good by volunteering and then bring that shit back with them.

If they care so damn much, they should stay in Ebolatopia and help until it blows over or they die from the consequences of their poor decisions.

[QuestionAuthority]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

The do-gooder doctor who brought ebola to NYC, forcing the negative externalities of his risky behavior on others, should be immediately sealed in a lead casket and dumped deep in the ocean.

It's bad enough that Obama waited until the horse left to close the barn door, but I'm getting really PO'd at these people make themselves feel good by volunteering and then bring that shit back with them.

If they care so damn much, they should stay in Ebolatopia and help until it blows over or they die from the consequences of their poor decisions.

It's nice to see the humanitarian spirit is alive and well.

[Spendulus]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected

IIRC cold weather helps virus molecule stay together, hence people catch colds in winter, if same principle is at work, more ebola cases in winter?

[NewLiberty]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected

IIRC cold weather helps virus molecule stay together, hence people catch colds in winter, if same principle is at work, more ebola cases in winter?

Cold and darkness preserve the virus, so that it can remain viable and infect over a much longer delay. 
The upside is that intense UV can kill it. 
(Using mechines to deliver UV is one of the proposed methods of disinfecting hospital rooms.)

[TonyT]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected

No, if anything winter will accelerate it, since more people indoors and touching their face, etc.

I say Ebola is the most under-reported story in the USA at the moment.  And if the USA has four cases, you know Nigeria, despite being declared "Ebola free", has many more, undetected / unreported.

[ibminer]

According to a rough timeline provided by city officials, in the days before Spencer fell ill, he went on a 3-mile jog, went to the High Line park, rode the subway and, on Wednesday night, got a taxi to a Brooklyn bowling alley. He felt tired starting Tuesday, and felt worse on Thursday when he and his fiancee made a joint call to authorities to detail his symptoms and his travels. EMTs in full Ebola gear arrived and took him to Bellevue in an ambulance surrounded by police squad cars.

Holy Complications Batman

[Kluge]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?


I'm talking about exponential growing of illness.


What we have:

                                                    winter 100,000 ? ? ? ?
                                                         ,,,,,
                                                      ....

                                        autumn 5,000 - 10,000 infected
                                            ......
                                          .....    
              summer 1,000 - 5,000 infected
                    .....
            ....
spring 10 - 100 infected

OOO! I wanna play the scare game!

800k on Christmas (WHO#*2.5). Case in UK confirmed by end of October, continental Europe will see infected cases by EoY. US will see >50 cases by EoY and will close borders to affected African countries around Black Friday.

[df5102]

maybe it is a good idea to register some ebola related domain names

[bitsmichel]

Finally some good news: Nigeria and Senegal are now officially Ebola-free.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/20/health/ebola-outbreak-roundup/

Nice but I don't believe it.  The definition of "Ebola free" is the lack of a reported Ebola case for three weeks.  But I bet some people are not reporting their illness (or it would not surprise me).

"Ebola free" should be read as no infected person has been registered. The virus is probably still in the area because it can survive in other mammals including apes and bats.
Another form of this virus has been found in 1976, the virus can survive for many many years in an area.

maybe it is a good idea to register some ebola related domain names

Is there a market for ebola?  

[Tzupy]

According to a rough timeline provided by city officials, in the days before Spencer fell ill, he went on a 3-mile jog, went to the High Line park, rode the subway and, on Wednesday night, got a taxi to a Brooklyn bowling alley. He felt tired starting Tuesday, and felt worse on Thursday when he and his fiancee made a joint call to authorities to detail his symptoms and his travels. EMTs in full Ebola gear arrived and took him to Bellevue in an ambulance surrounded by police squad cars.

Holy Complications Batman

Rode the subway... that's going to be impossible to track... now just wait until more become ill and spread it before being isolated... bugger...

[NewLiberty]

Gloves may become fashionable again.
Maybe I should make some alpaca gloves.

[NewLiberty]

The news and politicians are stupid liars.  It is not helpful to lie in order to placate the panicking masses.  They then lose trust with information sources and make up things to believe.

"Ebola can only be contracted by contact with bodily fluids"
"Casual contact can not transmit this disease"


Ebola, like all virus, is contracted by contact with the virus.  
The virus is tiny.  It can maintain infectiousness in fine mist or moisture, and yes, this can be small enough to stay airborne for a time.  Ebola isn't like an STD (though you can certainly get it that way too).
Though it typically will be contracted when a host human crashes and bleeds out, during the clean-up of the remains, etc., statements like the above just sound like magical thinking, as though there were some limit on how the virus RNA crashes into a cell that can replicate it in a living body.  It is simple science, not magic.

[fr4nkthetank]

The news and politicians are stupid liars.  It is not helpful to lie in order to placate the panicking masses.  They then lose trust with information sources and make up things to believe.

"Ebola can only be contracted by contact with bodily fluids"
"Casual contact can not transmit this disease"


Ebola, like all virus, is contracted by contact with the virus.  
The virus is tiny.  It can maintain infectiousness in fine mist or moisture, and yes, this can be small enough to stay airborne for a time.  Ebola isn't like an STD (though you can certainly get it that way too).
Though it typically will be contracted when a host human crashes and bleeds out, during the clean-up of the remains, etc., statements like the above just sound like magical thinking, as though there were some limit on how the virus RNA crashes into a cell that can replicate it in a living body.  It is simple science, not magic.

yeah they are stupid.  they care more about "public panic" than actually science or reality.  then nobody will believe them if it gets worse and people will panic.  how dumb are these people....it seems they are run by idiots with psychology/marketing degrees....bottom of the barrel.

[NewLiberty]

The news and politicians are stupid liars.  It is not helpful to lie in order to placate the panicking masses.  They then lose trust with information sources and make up things to believe.

"Ebola can only be contracted by contact with bodily fluids"
"Casual contact can not transmit this disease"


Ebola, like all virus, is contracted by contact with the virus.  
The virus is tiny.  It can maintain infectiousness in fine mist or moisture, and yes, this can be small enough to stay airborne for a time.  Ebola isn't like an STD (though you can certainly get it that way too).
Though it typically will be contracted when a host human crashes and bleeds out, during the clean-up of the remains, etc., statements like the above just sound like magical thinking, as though there were some limit on how the virus RNA crashes into a cell that can replicate it in a living body.  It is simple science, not magic.

yeah they are stupid.  they care more about "public panic" than actually science or reality.  then nobody will believe them if it gets worse and people will panic.  how dumb are these people....it seems they are run by idiots with psychology/marketing degrees....bottom of the barrel.

If so, they failed their psych courses too.
Yes, their actions run counter to their public policy.  The way to deal with panic is to provide good information in a way that is understandable.  
Their ELI5 is more like a "Lie like a dog and hope for re-election".
It is also going to make it hard for them to explain why they killed your dog and quarantined you.
http://nypost.com/2014/10/23/spanish-nurse-who-had-ebola-finally-told-her-dog-was-killed/

[bellicose]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

I'm talking about planet The Earth, not only about Africa or USA.

Do you think, winter will isolate the World from Ebola in Africa ?

[bitsmichel]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

I'm talking about planet The Earth, not only about Africa or USA.

Do you think, winter will isolate the World from Ebola in Africa ?

That depends on the temperature in which the Ebola virus can survive outside of the host. I have no data about this.
Here in Alaska there are huge distances between people so spread would be very slow.

[NewLiberty]

What do you folks thinking, will winter somehow stop this shit?

There is no winter in the equatorial hot zones of Africa, Asia, and Central America.

I'm talking about planet The Earth, not only about Africa or USA.

Do you think, winter will isolate the World from Ebola in Africa ?

That depends on the temperature in which the Ebola virus can survive outside of the host. I have no data about this.
Here in Alaska there are huge distances between people so spread would be very slow.

Winter moves from hemisphere to hemisphere. and pretty much skips the equatorial zones.
The virus can survive wet stored longer in cool than in warm, so probably not so much isolatied, no.
In a cold dry place it has been observed to remain infectious for 50 days. (so possibly also much longer)

Some data, and references to the studies:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C) Footnote 52 Footnote 61. One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature Footnote 61.  In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20°C and 25°C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of virus reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa) Footnote 53. When dried in tissue culture media onto glass and stored at 4 °C, Zaire ebolavirus survived for over 50 days Footnote 61. This information is based on experimental findings only and not based on observations in nature. This information is intended to be used to support local risk assessments in a laboratory setting.

A study on transmission of ebolavirus from fomites in an isolation ward concludes that the risk of transmission is low when recommended infection control guidelines for viral hemorrhagic fevers are followed Footnote 64. Infection control protocols included decontamination of floors with 0.5% bleach daily and decontamination of visibly contaminated surfaces with 0.05% bleach as necessary.

[BitMos]

Ready for the attempt medical tyranny by this admin? ready for your forced vaccination injection? OBEY.

will see soon...

[Kluge]

Ready for the attempt medical tyranny by this admin? ready for your forced vaccination injection? OBEY.

will see soon...

Dangers of lack of trust in administration become apparent in humanitarian crises. If you see your leader as the equivalent of Dada, you probably aren't going to be too willing to accept a mandated injection or even follow basic procedures pushed by their health organizations. Without a free flow of global, neutral communication easily accessible, you're stuck with whatever the government says (with medical care generally an arm of the government), whatever the mass media says, and whatever your neighbors speculate based on what That Guy heard about That Other Guy who prayed to God and was cured by crucifying an albino goat, so if you distrust the government and believe the media just repeats talking points, you better hope you have smart neighbors with a background in infectious diseases.

With recent cures and vaccines, these are things you can't even trust in even if you did have faith in the government. Right now, it'd be a bad choice to take a vaccine, I think, given how few, as a %, are dying. This'll be changing soon as we already passed the point where this could simply be quarantined away, but nobody knows the long-term effects of these new cures and vaccines, and since if an effective vaccine is found, probably everyone in affected areas will be told to receive it if it's mass-produced cheaply. A relatively tiny %death can kill millions, ignoring the possibility of it having a %chance of spreading a mutated form. Given #infected + time = more opportunities for mutations, the probability of of a mutation able to resist whatever comes out to cure or vaccinate against the strain we assume we need to worry about is always increasing, so we have a wicked problem -- the longer a cure or vaccine is tested, the more people will die and the better chance that this becomes an endemic or the cure/vaccine turns out ineffective against a new strain which spread during testing, but injecting without adequate tests can cause more deaths than not injecting - and we can't know which route's better until the governments commit to a plan and see it through.