rpietila Calling the Bottom

[zimmah]

.
There is nothing nitpicking in what I said.
The quoted line gives us two bottoms, $2 and $340.  He asks you to do something patently insane:  To extrapolate from $340 (the low which happened three months before his post was made, AKA "current low") and to assume that price is going to behave as it did during $2 -> $266 climb.

You can chose to believe anything, that's how cold readings work

What is being discussed here, now - whether rpietila's call was for a bottom at 340, or whether his implied prediction for future prices makes sense? You appear to be conflating the two.

No.  I'm saying:

1.  He did not call 340.
2.  On top of not calling 340, he asked you to do something nonsensical, for extra lulz.

Are you serious?

......

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

emphasis added

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[NotLambchop]

^Read more than the last post FTW!

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

The bottom called is $340 from 4/11/14. Please read the entire OP before saying he's wrong. He may become wrong a few days from now, but as of this very moment we have not broke the bottom that he called.

Lol, OK.  He asks you to extrapolate from 4/11/14.  At no point does he call that date the bottom he's calling.  No more so than he explicitly calls $2 [from the same quote] the bottom.
Perhaps he meant $2?

As others have mentioned, rpietila asks you to think like this:  pick two points on the chart that I chose, and extrapolate from there.
That makes as much sense as me saying "Bitcoin exchange rate went down from $1153 to $339 in just a few months.  If we extrapolate from that, with the starting point of $400..."

So yeah

[RoadStress]

^Read more than the last post FTW!

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

The bottom called is $340 from 4/11/14. Please read the entire OP before saying he's wrong. He may become wrong a few days from now, but as of this very moment we have not broke the bottom that he called.

Lol, OK.  He asks you to extrapolate from 4/11/14.  At no point does he call that date the bottom he's calling.  No more so than he explicitly calls $2 [from the same quote] the bottom.
Perhaps he meant $2?

As others have mentioned, rpietila asks you to think like this:  pick two points on the chart that I chose, and extrapolate from there.
That makes as much sense as me saying "Bitcoin exchange rate went down from $1153 to $339 in just a few months.  If we extrapolate from that, with the starting point of $400..."

So yeah

I know that you are not scammer Josh Zerlan from BFL, but you sound very much like him...

[NotLambchop]

...
I know that you are not scammer Josh Zerlan from BFL, but you sound very much like him...

Your point?  The local tinfoilhatters have insisted I'm every bogeyman under the sun, from Mircea Popescu to Eduardo De Castro.

[JayJuanGee]

...
I know that you are not scammer Josh Zerlan from BFL, but you sound very much like him...

Your point?  The local tinfoilhatters have insisted I'm every bogeyman under the sun, from Mircea Popescu to Eduardo De Castro.

Don't be so self-important -because it really does NOT matter too much who you are... generally, your points are NOT very well substantiated, and you spend quite a bit of time mud-slinging and attempting to distract us from the main topic(s) by your various side tangents and technical irrelevancies

[NotLambchop]

Lol, listen to yourself.
Roadstress tries to discredit me by saying I sound like some d00d he doesn't like, and you complain about MY mudslinging and MY ill-reasoned arguments?

[JayJuanGee]

Lol, listen to yourself.
Roadstress tries to discredit me by saying I sound like some d00d he doesn't like, and you complain about MY mudslinging and MY ill-reasoned arguments?

I know but why does it matter if Roadstress believes that you sound like someone else or that you have similar arguments and/or style as someone else.. ?  So what?  Why is there a need to get into a self reflective mode.. and instead wouldn't it be possible to stick to the various topics at hand..

Of course, you can respond however you like, but I stand by my comment about your seeming glory in striving to side-track by exploring in detail some only minorly relevant point...

Anyhow, just seems to me to be the life of a troll-like.. with moments of humor.. some of your cartoons are cute...

Just for me to attempt to stay somewhat on point with a moment of reflection on Rptiela's calling the bottom.  I do understand some aggravation that people may have with his sometimes seeming self-absorption and seemingly wanting to be right and calling BTC price directions in terms of black and white math... I understand that can be aggravating, but ultimately, we do NOT need to believe all the details of his predictions or to get caught up in his sometimes flamboyance in order to still find some value in his analysis .. and maybe even to conclude that he is wrong in various ways.

[Chuckee]

[Xiaoxiao]

Well said. +1

jimbo, when you're a beggar on the streets one day, i'll don'te to you some worthless bitcoins so you can buy yourself a pizza and vodka.  have a great time under the bridge, loser!

[Xiaoxiao]

rpietila says he didn't call the bottom.  the point of this post was that block chain is indestructable.  rpiet let me ask you, why did you put that as the title than?  if your main point is that the block chain is indestructable, you'd write something about that in the title.

[abercrombie]

Moments away from testing 340!!  

Possible double bottom or do we go right threw the floor???   

[N12]

Good call!

[robinwilliams]

bitstamp < 340 ...

[mmitech]

[Xiaoxiao]

Moments away from testing 340!!  

Possible double bottom or do we go right threw the floor???   

Did it go right thru the floor?  does 325 count as going thru 339?  albeit momentarily.

[riiiiising]

How could Risto have known that Manbearpigwhale would be manipulating the market for this long? He gave you good advice. For bitcoin, it is always good time to buy!

Price does not matter, because we know that it will be worth a million dollars in a few years. Load up, gentlemen, you don't get a chance to buy cheap coins like these often.

[mmitech]

[rpietila]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

Starting point is now invalidated. But is the post still valid otherwise?

[Xiaoxiao]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

Starting point is now invalidated. But is the post still valid otherwise?

I agree with some of your points.  But the thing is this unbreakable technology can be duplicated and improved endlessly.  

Also, come on bro, this thing is so bearish right now how could it NOT stabilize around 100-200$ ?  With the scums gone such as MTGOX and China, it has to stabilize around there or a bit lower.

Remember last autumn, every little good news of a potential good news saw a spike of $100. AND every bad news saw a huge drop.  Remember when rumors came out that China might ban bitcoin, price dropped like $500 in one night.  All that was obviously manipulation and not the real market.  

[NotLambchop]

...People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible...

The word you were looking for is "forgetting."  Forgetting, moving on, superseding--not only possible but happens all the time.