rpietila Calling the Bottom

[mmortal03]

Starting point is now invalidated. But is the post still valid otherwise?

rpietila, you must be doing something right, as I can't read half this thread.  All I see is "This user is currently ignored." We're still trading within the range. No one can accurately call the exact price of a bottom months ahead of time, anyway.

[NotLambchop]

... No one can accurately call the exact price of a bottom months ahead of time, anyway.

Yeah, only a lunatic would try to do that.


ohwait...

[Trolololo]

Blockchain, as a technology, is indestructible. A reasonable starting point is to understand that crypto is here to stay, and no laws or wars can stop it. Any individual cryptocoin, Bitcoin included, has challenges particular to it, and local laws and wars may prove detrimental to individuals' wealth, as well as life.

People can only learn more about Bitcoin, unlearning is not possible. With any technology, invention or innovation, there is an adoption curve that is the aggregate of all the people's individual propensities of learning about a new thing, deciding to use it, trying it, and amplifying their usage to significant levels. On average, the process from first hearing about something, to trying it, takes 2 years. From trying to actual adoption, we might add 1 more year.

The current number of Bitcoin owners is likely a paltry 1-2 million. Even smaller is the number of people who actively use Bitcoin in their life. The first number, at least, has not grown significantly in 2014. Enthusiasm has given way to apathy, evidenced by both price and volume of trades lagging far behind their highs.

Meanwhile, the 2 years average delay from first hearing to first trial, is slowly becoming fulfilled in hundreds of millions of people. There were millions who heard about the bubble in 2011, and their "2 years" started counting. Not enough of them were ready to buy in 2012, which was still a year of slow price appreciation. But in 2013, the great advances were made by the people who had had 2 years to ensure themselves that it was not a fly-by-night. In 2012, the global media coverage about Bitcoin was tiny, but in 2013 all changed. In two years, we are talking about 100x more people in the pipeline of becoming Bitcoin owners.

This gives rise to the exponential trendline. There is only one way to draw a trendline with the best R^2 fit (follows from the fact that goodness-of-fit is a universal criterion), and it is shown here. The number of Bitcoin users is so small at 1-2 million that the trendline should stay exponential 2 more orders of magnitude minimum.

An added reason is that because Bitcoin is money, and the exponential trendline means exponential gains for everyone involved, it makes sense to speculate and buy a large number of bitcoins instead of the fair share. (The fair share assuming worldwide adoption is BTC0.002 and assuming that only the elite of 3% world's richest and most connected buy it, BTC0.07.)

An increasing number of people are already ready to buy bitcoins. Banks, ETF's, private services, etc. have the infrastructure ready for launch. Both are waiting. Bitcoin holders are anxious, but as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues. In 2012 it continued quite long, with price going up only a little (more than 100% though).

Hearing about Bitcoin is the start of your Bitcoin pregnancy. Of these pregnancies, not all perhaps result in a healthy baby (adopting Bitcoin as your home currency), but luckily here, the time is not limited to 9 months. The average with those who currently are power users may have been 3 years (or less, since the delay is shorter with people with the early adopter mindset), but for others it may be 5 years. Miscarriages happen often, but the reverse-miscarriage is also a very typical occurrence.

We have a world-record number of Bitcoin pregnancies going on now, and hardly any births for several months already. I believe that the laws of nature and mathematics will take care that the babies will be seen in increasing numbers.

The trendline shows how much behind we are currently. The price shows the daily birth rate. I am writing this from a castle that I bought with money earned by trading Bitcoin based on the very premise I have explained to you here.

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

Starting point is now invalidated. But is the post still valid otherwise?

Absolutely!!

[exocytosis]

So what did you say the bottom was, rpietila? 340? 

[mmortal03]

So what did you say the bottom was, rpietila? 340? 

We're still hovering around that range. You can take this as me just moving the goalposts for the sake of rpietila, but this stuff is not an exact science.

[Chuckee]

So what did you say the bottom was, rpietila? 340? 

We're still hovering around that range. You can take this as me just moving the goalposts for the sake of rpietila, but this stuff is not an exact science.

Risto apologist to the rescue!

He called bottom at ~$500 in August when this thread was created, and it was clear when it was originally posted that he believed we would trend back up from that price point. He was prompted to call it on August 15 because we had just experienced a large drop, but he determined that we had bottomed out. If you read his older posts, it's pretty clear that he thought we would be back over the ATH again at this point.

Sorry, but I'm not going to let anyone wishy wash their way out of their bold predictions. Anyone is free to make any prediction they want here, but you've got to face up to it when you're wrong.

[robinwilliams]

predictions are a lot like impossible.  and those who call them have great insights sometimes more than the rest of us - but even in movies where they can predict the future - the future is depending on small events that can go one way or another.

so rpietila was wrong ... so what    doesn't mean you quit making predictions with as much knowledge and wisdom as you can muster

[wobber]

Strong possibility?

[exocytosis]

so rpietila was wrong ... so what  

rpietila and other cultists/bulltards are very influential. Newbs see their posts and get the impression that we'll be above 10k soon, when in fact we won't. Thus the newbs make bad investment decisions. They lose a lot of money.

These forums are spammed with a lot of bulltard gibberish about 10k coins, "exponential trend lines", "support" and "to da moon". Perhaps it's time the cultists and bulltards are exposed.

[phoenix1]

predictions are a lot like impossible.  and those who call them have great insights sometimes more than the rest of us - but even in movies where they can predict the future - the future is depending on small events that can go one way or another.

so rpietila was wrong ... so what    doesn't mean you quit making predictions with as much knowledge and wisdom as you can muster

So what ?? He has built up a cult-like following through his brash predictions, and many a newb is now underwater through following them.
Recently he seems to preoccupied with the XMR pump mess to address his disciples, but I am sure he will be back soon to take responsibility and guide them onto a new path ...

[mmortal03]

So what did you say the bottom was, rpietila? 340? 

We're still hovering around that range. You can take this as me just moving the goalposts for the sake of rpietila, but this stuff is not an exact science.

Risto apologist to the rescue!

He called bottom at ~$500 in August when this thread was created

No he didn't.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Calling the bottom a little bit at the wrong time...

[JayJuanGee]

So what did you say the bottom was, rpietila? 340? 

We're still hovering around that range. You can take this as me just moving the goalposts for the sake of rpietila, but this stuff is not an exact science.

Risto apologist to the rescue!

He called bottom at ~$500 in August when this thread was created, and it was clear when it was originally posted that he believed we would trend back up from that price point. He was prompted to call it on August 15 because we had just experienced a large drop, but he determined that we had bottomed out. If you read his older posts, it's pretty clear that he thought we would be back over the ATH again at this point.

Sorry, but I'm not going to let anyone wishy wash their way out of their bold predictions. Anyone is free to make any prediction they want here, but you've got to face up to it when you're wrong.

Chuckee,

Even though you are a fucking troll, and rarely do you lend any value within any of your posts; however, here you seem to be largely correct. 

Risto made a prediction, and largely he was predicting upward BTC price direction from mid-August onward. and he should take responsibility for such, especially when he (Risto) makes such predictions with such arrogance.

On the other hand, Risto made a lot of valuable contributions including in his post describing the bitcoin price situation at the time of OP.

I suspect that if Risto toned down some of his arrogance within his posts and sometimes made concessions regarding his getting things wrong (or overstating matters), he would NOT cause himself to be such a target for being told that he is wrong... .which NONE of us should expect to really be able to foretell specifics regarding BTC prices.. except for just providing and estimating probabilities.

[JayJuanGee]

so rpietila was wrong ... so what  

rpietila and other cultists/bulltards are very influential. Newbs see their posts and get the impression that we'll be above 10k soon, when in fact we won't. Thus the newbs make bad investment decisions. They lose a lot of money.

These forums are spammed with a lot of bulltard gibberish about 10k coins, "exponential trend lines", "support" and "to da moon". Perhaps it's time the cultists and bulltards are exposed.

Anyone taking advice from the internet needs to take such advice with a grain of salt, to do their own research and to weigh their own risks, timeline, finances, etc.

people talk bullish and they talk bearish, but there really is NO reason to generalize them into a group and label them as either bulltards or beartards.  That kind of name calling, labeling and categorizing does NOT meaningfully contribute to better understanding the substance of the various arguments that are being made by any of these posters.

[NotLambchop]

So what did you say the bottom was, rpietila? 340? 

We're still hovering around that range...

Nah.  ~312.  Good morning!

[abercrombie]

Buenos dias...

Oct 5, 2014 $275 Bitstamp Low (so far)  

[abercrombie]

$245 as we speak... 

[twiifm]

I hope nobody followed his advice.  Boy was he WRONG

[a fool and his money ...]

hahaha this retarded bull-idiots bitcoin worshippers

Your coin is an inflationary MESS and will never see a new ATH

It's not half as advanced as most alts. It's image is tarnished. Get out now people!

You have been falling for the hype of these bulltards people and handed your money to them. But they are all full of shit and will continue to tell you to buy their shit from them.

[God Donut]

hahaha this retarded bull-idiots bitcoin worshippers

Your coin is an inflationary MESS and will never see a new ATH

It's not half as advanced as most alts. It's image is tarnished. Get out now people!

You have been falling for the hype of these bulltards people and handed your money to them. But they are all full of shit and will continue to tell you to buy their shit from them.

its a bitcoin forum. If you don't like bitcoin then why don't you just GTFO?