rpietila Calling the Bottom

[BitChick]

Risto, this will go down as quite the bold call if we are now embarking on a long and joyful ride up. Wouldn't be the first good call he has made folks...

There is a reason I am unashamedly a huge fan of Risto.  He is usually right and it is impressive to me!  I feel a bit sorry for his wife though.  It is hard saying, "you were right" over and over again, especially to someone you are married to. 

The only time I have questioned Risto has been when he said we would drop back down to $350 or so after the last rally.  I never want to believe that we will capitulate so low so I like to bury my head and the sand.  It is much more fun to listen to him when he makes comments about how high we are going to go though. 

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[Rampion]

The bottom is near, excellent time to buy. 'Nuff said

[Chuckee]

When you pick a bottom, all you come away with is a stinky finger. I read this topic in length and all I see are more of the same mendacious ramblings by Mr. Pietila. We both know that bitcoin reached its apex last year and is now in the burn off phase. Why don't you break the act and stop misleading these impressionable people?

You already have a castle and a Rolls Royce. These people need their money to pay their mortgages and put food on their supper tables!

[twiifm]

When you pick a bottom, all you come away with is a stinky finger. I read this topic in length and all I see are more of the same mendacious ramblings by Mr. Pietila. We both know that bitcoin reached its apex last year and is now in the burn off phase. Why don't you break the act and stop misleading these impressionable people?

You already have a castle and a Rolls Royce. These people need their money to pay their mortgages and put food on their supper tables!

He needs greater fools to unload the rest of his stash

[farfiman]

When you pick a bottom, all you come away with is a stinky finger. I read this topic in length and all I see are more of the same mendacious ramblings by Mr. Pietila. We both know that bitcoin reached its apex last year and is now in the burn off phase. Why don't you break the act and stop misleading these impressionable people?

You already have a castle and a Rolls Royce. These people need their money to pay their mortgages and put food on their supper tables!

go away.

[lyth0s]

When you pick a bottom, all you come away with is a stinky finger. I read this topic in length and all I see are more of the same mendacious ramblings by Mr. Pietila. We both know that bitcoin reached its apex last year and is now in the burn off phase. Why don't you break the act and stop misleading these impressionable people?

You already have a castle and a Rolls Royce. These people need their money to pay their mortgages and put food on their supper tables!

Why join this community of people and participate in it when you believe bitcoin is going to become non-existent? There surely has to be something better to do with your time than talk about this foolish bitcoin stuff....right?

[Markos]

I agree with almost everything. But I allow myself a small digression

I believe that the next one might carry us north of $10,000. The longer time we spend here, the more explosive it gets. The supermove from $2 to $266 (133x price appreciation) took 17 months. Extrapolate that with the starting point of $340 in 2014-4-11.

The bottom will be when the volume of sales will be huge and the price will stop falling for an extender period of time, e.g. two weeks. So probably not 340 USD, but 200 USD or may even 100 USD. But I'm not sure. But I'm sure that the five-digit value will come after the bottom.
Oh, and congratulations on the buying of the castle I just bought an apartment for gains from trade (not for real bitcoins, but bitcoin's CFDs). It is good to live without any debt, especially housing debt.

[mambamanagement]

When you pick a bottom, all you come away with is a stinky finger. I read this topic in length and all I see are more of the same mendacious ramblings by Mr. Pietila. We both know that bitcoin reached its apex last year and is now in the burn off phase. Why don't you break the act and stop misleading these impressionable people?

You already have a castle and a Rolls Royce. These people need their money to pay their mortgages and put food on their supper tables!

you sound like a total moron
I have been reading risto for a little over a year now and recently have been wondering if he isn't the modern day Warren Buffet. we need a new power circle!

[ajareselde]

The bottom is near, excellent time to buy. 'Nuff said

I actualy agree that we reached bottom on this point, this whold drop smells of a trap all along.
There is too much good news lately for bitcoin not to jump a bit closer to the 550 - 600 range by end of this month

[findftp]

+1

The logic is sound, the facts seem to fit, and I agree.

so why is price not performing as it should be?

as long as their anxiety results in them selling more bitcoins to the deep-pocket investors, the wait continues.

yes, that seems to be the case, I would go one step further and add that the deep-pocket investors are playing with the market, dropping price, leverage hunting, down playing their willingness to buy, all in the hope of adding to that anxiety resulting more bitcoin available on the market for them.

no one drops large sums of bitcoin when news is gr8, unless they want to manipulate, and we saw just how effective a well placed large market sell can be, with last nights long squeeze.

do you believe there is some manipulation is taking place? how long can they keep this up?  how low will they make us go? are their tricks working for you, are you scared, are you selling!?

It's a new land, like the Wild West. There are unwritten rules that yet need to be written.

honestly i think this manipulation should be allowed. theres nothing stopping anyone from trading against them...

as long as there is no nake shorts, i'm ok with it really, i don't like it, but i see no good reason to put rules where none are needed. the market will take care of this itself.

I think naked shorts are not really possible in bitcoin land or are they?
With dollar markets they can go naked short by printing new dollars, with bitcoin that's not possible.

[wachtwoord]

Risto, this will go down as quite the bold call if we are now embarking on a long and joyful ride up. Wouldn't be the first good call he has made folks...

There is a reason I am unashamedly a huge fan of Risto.  He is usually right and it is impressive to me!  I feel a bit sorry for his wife though.  It is hard saying, "you were right" over and over again, especially to someone you are married to. 

The only time I have questioned Risto has been when he said we would drop back down to $350 or so after the last rally.  I never want to believe that we will capitulate so low so I like to bury my head and the sand.  It is much more fun to listen to him when he makes comments about how high we are going to go though. 

I'm sure he's wrong often enough, especially on non-business related subjects. Anyway, even she can always giggle over his $300k per BTC prediction by the fall of 2013

[counter]

Yeah I personally don't think we will go very much lower and I agree that things really have no reason to go lower.  The Birth analogy was spot on and now we wait is how I feel about it.  I personally appreciate you sharing your thoughts and opinions on the issue because you clearly give it some thought.  I don't expect you'll be 100% correct but like I said I agree with many of the points you presented on the topic.

[NotLambchop]

...People can only learn more about Bitcoin Hula Hoop, unlearning is not possible...

Go to the first post of this thread.  Substitute "Hula Hoop" for every instance of "Bitcoin/blockchain."  See if the argument remains compelling.
If it does [remain compelling], why are there toys other than Hula Hoops?
If not, why not?

[BitcoinDN.com]

Love the article, but you never called the bottom.

What is the bottom ? 340 ? Will we return to 341 still on the most recent tumble ?

[Torque]

Love the article, but you never called the bottom.

What is the bottom ? 340 ? Will we return to 341 still on the most recent tumble ?

This

[Gyrsur]

Love the article, but you never called the bottom.

What is the bottom ? 340 ? Will we return to 341 still on the most recent tumble ?

This

it seems to come true.

[painlord2k]

This is the bottom or we are at spitting distance from it:

my charts ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml# not TA but FA) show we are near a turning point:


host immagini

What matter here is the blue line approaching zero: it is the difference between M1 inflation in the past 52 weeks and the BTC supply inflation in the past 52 weeks.

Or the Fed stomp on the brakes of the printing press (and collapse the economy in a apocalyptic credit crunch and dominoes defaults) or the M1 inflation will remain well north 10-12% year (and I don't talk about the Base Money inflation - violet/indigo dots - because it is just pornographic).
BTC, instead, will proceed to have a 10%-12% inflation in the next 52 weeks (depending on how much the hashrate will grow).

When the blue line touch zero and go down, bitcoins hold in cold storage will, per se, increase in value compared to the USD.
Why hold 1% Bonds (with associated risks) when you could hold a cold wallet increasing his value in USD at least 1% in a year (and probably more if adoption increase).

In the next few weeks (four, eight, probably not more than twelve and surely before year's end) we will inflate less than the USD and this will attract adoption increasing  the value faster and attracting more adoption.

[vuduchyld]

That is a thoughtful take! Thank you for sharing.

[Wary]

(Preliminary remark: I usually avoid posting in self-moderated topics, but I'll make an exception this time. Let's see how this turns out.)

Not going to argue with the body of your post. Several valid points, though I continue to believe that predicting future price levels by simple extrapolation from the all-time price regression is extremely optimistic, and in all likelihood: too optimistic. Which doesn't change the main point you seem to make, similar to Devin Chow's point in his thread yesterday - that if you believed in the long-term potential of Bitcoin a week ago at $590, there's no need to panic sell now at $490.

That said, your title bears no causal (or even just argumentative) relation to the body of the post. And, non-surprisingly, it is proven wrong already, less than 24 hours later. Sometimes, technical causes take over in a market, and the fundamentals are on the backburner for a while. Now seems to be such a time, and it is perhaps best to prepare yourself for the (likely) effects of that.

I agree, this part (why it's the bottom now) is completely missing. But I've found the missing link! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=717215.0  hacknoid have discovered a 670-day (=22 month) cycle, which is close to the 2 years Risto is talking about. So now we have both the facts (hacknoid) and the theory that explains them (risto). Even better, we had a testable prediction which was successfully tested since the post: there was a dip at the end of hacknoid's blue line, and now we have a deep at the red line, exactly 670 days since the bottom of 10 October 2012. And finally, it was indeed a bottom, $2.22. After that prices went up.

Of course, such precision is just a coincidence. However, such a graph gives more credibility to the "2-year-pregnancy" theory and "it's the bottom" statement.

[Xiaoxiao]

rpietila you've been wrong so many times in the past and your analysis is sketchy.  i really don't know bro.