Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service

[smoothie]

Think back a year. Price was $4.50 to $5.00 last April.

Today $90+

I'm curious where the price will be in April of 2014. $500+?

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[RationalSpeculator]

Maybe I am nitpicking.

I would like to understand better what your reasoning is behind not giving any sell recommendations when the price has been going parabolic for some time and chances for a major correction become much higher?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The thing about bubbles is you never know how high they will go. If not for goxlag, we might be in the thousands right now, and "pop" down to the low hundreds. Selling BTC means reducing your position. You might not get on the train again for a long time. 'Tis better not to gamble with something as insanely valuable as a position in bitcoins.

[smoothie]

Maybe I am nitpicking.

I would like to understand better what your reasoning is behind not giving any sell recommendations when the price has been going parabolic for some time and chances for a major correction become much higher?

Just look at all the fiat currencies and their respective supply. Compare that to the fixed supply at 21,000,000 bitcoins. Nuff said.

[cypherdoc]

Maybe I am nitpicking.

I would like to understand better what your reasoning is behind not giving any sell recommendations when the price has been going parabolic for some time and chances for a major correction become much higher?

based on experience, bull markets can run faster, longer, and further than anyone can imagine. 

look at lucif.  he went short @ 13.  do you have any idea how many ppl sold or went short @ 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, etc all the way up to 260?  answer:  tons.

so much money was lost not sitting back and understanding the big picture from a macroeconomic standpoint.  which is why i spend so much time studying other markets besides Bitcoin.

i can tell you're a trader.  technically, i'm not.  i seek to understand what is happening not from just a trading viewpoint but from an economic, social, and political perspective.

there is way more going on here with Bitcoin than you realize.

[cypherdoc]

The thing about bubbles is you never know how high they will go. If not for goxlag, we might be in the thousands right now, and "pop" down to the low hundreds. Selling BTC means reducing your position. You might not get on the train again for a long time. 'Tis better not to gamble with something as insanely valuable as a position in bitcoins.

this is quite right.

the gox lag is impossible to predict and can lock you in or out against your goals.  i happen to think Bitcoin is still going up and don't want to get trapped out of the market.  that strategy has paid off handsomely.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

None of the many people that sold on the way up announce it, whereas almost everyone who sold at $200+ trumpets it. If it had gone to $350 (if MtGox had remained fully operational just one day longer) they probably wouldn't have. It's just survivorship bias.

[cypherdoc]

Maybe I am nitpicking.

I would like to understand better what your reasoning is behind not giving any sell recommendations when the price has been going parabolic for some time and chances for a major correction become much higher?

i don't think you really understand what's going on with Bitcoin, especially with how it relates to gold/silver.

when you consulted me privately back on 3/4/13, Bitcoin was below 31 and gold was 1574. here's what i said to you about rebalancing your portfolio:

"seriously, i would sell all the silver and half the gold and move the proceeds into BTC asap.  read the newsletter as to why.  basically i think gold is going to break down below the Dec 2011 low and that would mean lights out for the 13 yr bull."

you countered later about the "masses" coming to gold.  my response:

"i don't believe the "masses all in" argument.

this is the Age of The Internet where communication is widespread.  back in 1980, we didn't know what a gold bug in India or the Ukraine was thinking.  nor were we aware of any bid rigging in the Comex pits or LBME.  that is how we got the parabolic spike of 1980.  in addition, the hangover effect from 1971 gold depegging was still fresh in everyone's mind.

today, i believe we already had our finishing parabola into Aug 2011.  it wasn't as huge as 1980 for the above reasons.  also, if you look at a non log chart of gold, it was still a pretty good parabolic ending.  plus, we now have Bitcoin which ppl are just now starting to realize is a digital gold-like equivalent.  you can see and feel the increasing defections going on from gold to Bitcoin.  you can't ignore this.  this will as well blunt any further run in gold, IMO.

if you're uncomfortable selling metals for Bitcoin, what you could do otherwise is get a hold of an equivalent of fiat and plow it into Bitcoin asap.  we are in a wave 3 up which should blow the 31.91 old high out of the water.  sure we might come back to revisit it but then we'd just go higher again.  we're breaking up and away now which is why i advise getting on board quick.

anyways, do your best to understand the 9yr cycle argument i have presented and continue to ask questions."

[cypherdoc]

to top it all off, i can tell from your lack of response to my email, you didn't listen to me.

[smoothie]

to top it all off, i can tell from your lack of response to my email, you didn't listen to me.

 

[RationalSpeculator]

Maybe I am nitpicking.

I would like to understand better what your reasoning is behind not giving any sell recommendations when the price has been going parabolic for some time and chances for a major correction become much higher?

based on experience, bull markets can run faster, longer, and further than anyone can imagine. 

look at lucif.  he went short @ 13.  do you have any idea how many ppl sold or went short @ 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, etc all the way up to 260?  answer:  tons.

so much money was lost not sitting back and understanding the big picture from a macroeconomic standpoint.  which is why i spend so much time studying other markets besides Bitcoin.

i can tell you're a trader.  technically, i'm not.  i seek to understand what is happening not from just a trading viewpoint but from an economic, social, and political perspective.

there is way more going on here with Bitcoin than you realize.

Thank you. That explains indeed very well why you choose not to sell. It's true what you say. And it went already a lot higher than many, including me expected. I thank you for that for sure. You kept me on the bull a lot better than I would have without you.

I'm not a trader, I'm an investor, like you.

[cypherdoc]

Update

[RationalSpeculator]

to top it all off, i can tell from your lack of response to my email, you didn't listen to me.

Indeed, I did not take your advise at the time to sell the silver and put it into bitcoin.

However, I did take your advise in that I sold of gold and silver as the bitcoins grew, though only part of it.

As bitcoins became too big for my allocation target and as I wanted to lock in some profits too I started selling btc around $65 up to $200, my average sale price was $140.

I ended up selling half of my coins into the rally. When the crash came I bought back half of the lost coins around $73.

I thought I did pretty ok, and regretted not having sold more coins into the rally, but few days back I lost almost all cash profits I had from selling coins into the rally, to bitcoin-24 clamp down.


End result today with btc at $80, gold at $1380 and silver at $33 is 20% return on my total portfolio. At one point I was at 80%. 

So all in all, I think I could have done a lot better having had the opportunity and vision to buy bitcoins at $13.

Simply by taking a bigger allocation to bitcoin to start with and sticking with it, as you have advised all along.

Lesson learned.

[cypherdoc]

DB

[smoothie]

DB

Cypher what is your avatar picture of? I can't make it out.

[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin

[Geist]

I'm considering paying for 1 month, but I have a question for you.

At what level is your service worth it. Say for instance, I was only playing around with $500(not counting your fee),would your advice still help me or do I need more to play with?

[cypherdoc]

I'm considering paying for 1 month, but I have a question for you.

At what level is your service worth it. Say for instance, I was only playing around with $500(not counting your fee),would your advice still help me or do I need more to play with?

my advice will always help you.

but if you're only playing around with $500 obviously the cost of the sub would eat into your gains making the cost benefit too high.

[cypherdoc]

Collapse

[cypherdoc]

DB

Cypher what is your avatar picture of? I can't make it out.

its a picture of the Sun and the writing explains the equivalent computing power needed to crack a private key.