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Author Topic: Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service  (Read 123737 times)
cypherdoc
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April 10, 2013, 08:12:35 PM
 #1361

BTFD
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smoothie
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LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


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April 10, 2013, 08:54:12 PM
 #1362

Volatility

$256 -> $105 -> $300+

 Shocked Shocked Shocked

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cypherdoc
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April 11, 2013, 02:32:10 AM
 #1363

Update
oakpacific
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April 11, 2013, 05:53:05 AM
 #1364

BTFD

Come on cypher, this is too obvious. Cheesy

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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April 11, 2013, 04:38:35 PM
 #1365

gox
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April 12, 2013, 12:31:10 AM
 #1366

op
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April 12, 2013, 02:17:09 PM
 #1367

Update
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April 12, 2013, 02:34:38 PM
 #1368

Support
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April 12, 2013, 02:51:15 PM
 #1369

Capitulate
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April 12, 2013, 03:39:48 PM
 #1370

uroll
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April 12, 2013, 04:52:13 PM
 #1371

Turning
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April 14, 2013, 01:16:47 AM
 #1372

Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
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April 15, 2013, 12:53:43 AM
 #1373

Bitcoin
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April 15, 2013, 02:02:57 AM
 #1374

Stocks
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April 15, 2013, 04:26:40 AM
 #1375

Whatever you do...
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April 15, 2013, 04:59:58 AM
 #1376

What?

If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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April 15, 2013, 11:09:15 AM
 #1377

Cypherdoc, I enjoy your reports and value your service.

However, I notice you didn't give any bitcoin selling recommendation in the whole rally towards $266. Just like you didn't give any selling recommendation in the whole rally of 2011 towards $30.

And I am afraid, just like after the first drop in 2011 from $30 to $15, your advice to buy this dip will be proven wrong on a short term basis, the coming months.

I think it is fair to say you have been acting as a permabull up until now. And though permabulls offer high value to buy at true bottoms and stick with it in an upward cycle. A lot of that value is lost when they miss the top completely and go all-in into a downwards temporary cycle.

Or, I think your calls at the bottom of 2011, and into the start of this rally have been very good. Your calls towards the top in 2011 and 2013 and into the downwards cycle of 2011 have been very poor.

Ofcourse, I will revise my opinion if you prove to be right that we get new highs the coming weeks/months. But until then the empirical proof supports my thesis I believe.  


I do feel irritated when permabulls do not acknowledge their wrong calls when missing another major top. Instead of acknowledging the failure, they double down, saying to buy the dip, only to be proven wrong about that too in the months ahead. After which they continue to advise the same, 'buy the dip'. At some point ofcourse they are right. But in the meantime they have been very wrong and have never acknowledged that. I hope you can raise above that and can take responsibility for wrong calls.

If not, all is well, you do offer high value acting as a permabull in bitcoin. And indeed, following your advise, although it is a strong rollercoaster, and great opportunities are missed at temporary tops, you certainly balance that out with giving great opportunities at real bottoms. I believe in the long run your strategy to basically always stick with it, as well as accumulate more, will create great wealth for the once following that advise consistently.

I think you will be able to help more people if you recognize your mistakes more. Because you lose credibility if you don't. Less experienced investors will, understandably, give up on your advise, as the amount of wrong calls add up into a downward cycle, and will not act on your best calls at the bottom. However, if you recognize the past mistakes you made into a downwards cycle, those less experienced investors, will have more sympathy for your continued calls to buy.  


I think investors will get much higher value from you if they are conscious you are acting, up until now, as a permabull.

My advise to other investors would be to subscribe to Cyperdocs service but to either:
1. Follow his advise always.
or 2. Follow your own advise, using your own system. Even then Cyperdoc his bitcoin reports are very informative.

Do not do 3. Follow his advise after he made many right calls, and stop following his advise after he made several wrong ones as this will lead you to continue to buy towards the top, and leading you to stop buying as we go into true bottoms.  
And NEVER do 4. Following his advise after he made many right calls, and giving up on him and doing the inverse after he made several wrong ones, as that is a recipe for disaster. This will lead you to buy high and sell low, ruining your capital.
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April 15, 2013, 04:05:37 PM
 #1378

On track...
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April 15, 2013, 05:06:45 PM
 #1379

Cypherdoc, I enjoy your reports and value your service.

However, I notice you didn't give any bitcoin selling recommendation in the whole rally towards $266. Just like you didn't give any selling recommendation in the whole rally of 2011 towards $30.

And I am afraid, just like after the first drop in 2011 from $30 to $15, your advice to buy this dip will be proven wrong on a short term basis, the coming months.

I think it is fair to say you have been acting as a permabull up until now. And though permabulls offer high value to buy at true bottoms and stick with it in an upward cycle. A lot of that value is lost when they miss the top completely and go all-in into a downwards temporary cycle.

Or, I think your calls at the bottom of 2011, and into the start of this rally have been very good. Your calls towards the top in 2011 and 2013 and into the downwards cycle of 2011 have been very poor.

Ofcourse, I will revise my opinion if you prove to be right that we get new highs the coming weeks/months. But until then the empirical proof supports my thesis I believe.  


I do feel irritated when permabulls do not acknowledge their wrong calls when missing another major top. Instead of acknowledging the failure, they double down, saying to buy the dip, only to be proven wrong about that too in the months ahead. After which they continue to advise the same, 'buy the dip'. At some point ofcourse they are right. But in the meantime they have been very wrong and have never acknowledged that. I hope you can raise above that and can take responsibility for wrong calls.

If not, all is well, you do offer high value acting as a permabull in bitcoin. And indeed, following your advise, although it is a strong rollercoaster, and great opportunities are missed at temporary tops, you certainly balance that out with giving great opportunities at real bottoms. I believe in the long run your strategy to basically always stick with it, as well as accumulate more, will create great wealth for the once following that advise consistently.

I think you will be able to help more people if you recognize your mistakes more. Because you lose credibility if you don't. Less experienced investors will, understandably, give up on your advise, as the amount of wrong calls add up into a downward cycle, and will not act on your best calls at the bottom. However, if you recognize the past mistakes you made into a downwards cycle, those less experienced investors, will have more sympathy for your continued calls to buy.  


I think investors will get much higher value from you if they are conscious you are acting, up until now, as a permabull.

My advise to other investors would be to subscribe to Cyperdocs service but to either:
1. Follow his advise always.
or 2. Follow your own advise, using your own system. Even then Cyperdoc his bitcoin reports are very informative.

Do not do 3. Follow his advise after he made many right calls, and stop following his advise after he made several wrong ones as this will lead you to continue to buy towards the top, and leading you to stop buying as we go into true bottoms.  
And NEVER do 4. Following his advise after he made many right calls, and giving up on him and doing the inverse after he made several wrong ones, as that is a recipe for disaster. This will lead you to buy high and sell low, ruining your capital.

its impossible to respond to criticisms like this as everyone has a different perspective and strategy.  all i can do is lay down the facts.  since this letter began on 3/31/12 my recommendations have performed to the tune of:

BTC:  4.87 --> 94.6 or 1843% gain

Gold:  1671 --> 1374 or 18% loss OR at minimum, 18% GAIN if you went short like i did, or even more if you sold bullion and then went short on top of that.  actually my personal gain is even larger since i've used leverage like DZZ or ZSL and have been swing trading a bunch of miner shorts like GG, SLW, RGLD, AG.  all this is well documented in the gold thread.

Stocks:  this one is more difficult to calculate b/c i do swing/day trade these.  i have been too early on calling a top in the Dow but not in individual retailer shorts that i've used to short the stock market many of which have had spectacular gains.  overall, my estimate of this is a 15% gain since this letter started.

sorry i didn't say SELL at 260.  to me, this drop doesn't change the big picture.
RationalSpeculator
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April 15, 2013, 05:28:39 PM
 #1380


its impossible to respond to criticisms like this as everyone has a different perspective and strategy.  all i can do is lay down the facts.  since this letter began on 3/31/12 my recommendations have performed to the tune of:

BTC:  4.87 --> 94.6 or 1843% gain

Gold:  1671 --> 1374 or 18% loss OR at minimum, 18% GAIN if you went short like i did, or even more if you sold bullion and then went short on top of that.  actually my personal gain is even larger since i've used leverage like DZZ or ZSL and have been swing trading a bunch of miner shorts like GG, SLW, RGLD, AG.  all this is well documented in the gold thread.

Stocks:  this one is more difficult to calculate b/c i do swing/day trade these.  i have been too early on calling a top in the Dow but not in individual retailer shorts that i've used to short the stock market many of which have had spectacular gains.  overall, my estimate of this is a 15% gain since this letter started.

sorry i didn't say SELL at 260.  to me, this drop doesn't change the big picture.

I fully agree your big picture to buy bitcoin and sell precious metals has been spot on for years now.  And anyone following your advice consistently has had amazing results overall. I also acknowledged that in my post.

Feeling little sad to see you waiving away and even ridiculing my criticisms though. Sad

I think they are valid but maybe I am discounting your work in the process.

If so, I'm sorry. That was certainly not my intention. Overall, I am a happy subscriber.
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