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Author Topic: Financial Risk Analytics-Subscription Service  (Read 123688 times)
cypherdoc
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November 05, 2012, 03:49:57 AM
 #821

Newsletter #38
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November 05, 2012, 02:43:59 PM
 #822

Swing
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November 06, 2012, 04:31:58 PM
 #823

Swing
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November 06, 2012, 07:57:26 PM
 #824

Headfake
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November 07, 2012, 11:48:33 AM
 #825

Update
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November 07, 2012, 03:01:12 PM
 #826

Whos' gonna pay?
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November 07, 2012, 03:18:01 PM
 #827

Clues
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November 07, 2012, 03:28:02 PM
 #828

Mistake
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November 07, 2012, 05:05:09 PM
 #829

Where we're at.
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November 07, 2012, 07:33:05 PM
 #830

Apple.
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November 07, 2012, 09:01:36 PM
 #831

Obama
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November 07, 2012, 10:08:06 PM
 #832

Bitcoin
lucif
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November 08, 2012, 10:29:42 AM
 #833

Feedback.

Positive:
Much thinkings
Keeps me updated on overall world trading sutuation and trends.
Pushes "Cycle theory", many explanations about it, documents. (But this theory isnt my case).

Negative:
Too much emotions.
Too less technicials.
There are a clear suggestions: BUY or SELL, but no suggestions about targets.

Conclusion. Not suitable for trading. Is suitable for learning and thinking.
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November 08, 2012, 04:18:15 PM
 #834

Feedback.

Positive:
Much thinkings
Keeps me updated on overall world trading sutuation and trends.
Pushes "Cycle theory", many explanations about it, documents. (But this theory isnt my case).

Negative:
Too much emotions.
Too less technicials.
There are a clear suggestions: BUY or SELL, but no suggestions about targets.

Conclusion. Not suitable for trading. Is suitable for learning and thinking.

Thanks for the feedback and thanks for your subscription.

As far as the criticisms go, let me try to address these.  My attitude in my updates, if I had to liken it to someone or someplace (which I don't), would be to Zerohedge; sarcastic and contrary.  Given the popularity of that site to people around here and many of the smartest and brightest on Wall Street, I don't apologize.  Underlying that sarcasm is a rigorous and dedicated technical analysis.  While I've titled it Cycle Theory it really is a combination of cycle theory, trend following, and Dow Theory mixed with some fundamentals.  Please take the time to study the Cycle Theory Review document.

Let's talk about trend following for a moment.  Those BUY and SELL recommendations you've referred to are based solely on trend following.  That is a well accepted and popular TA method of trading.  That keeps me and others out of trouble from my personal biases.  If you know a bit about good trend following it doesn't have targets, which is your other concern.  Have you heard the advice "stick with the trend", or "the trend is your friend"?  It's b/c you don't sell until the trend changes.  Let's look at why.  This is a 5yr chart of CMG.  How could you have targets in place here from the bottom of 3/09?  You would've been stopped out of most of this trend if you had targets in place.  No one could've targeted that run; especially the straight up relentless move at the end.  I would also argue that there is a bigger theme working in markets that I exclusively used to short this stock; the 4yr cycle.  My subs know that I was short this stock from the top and actually caught that huge drop (gap down) back in July.  I did the same with the huge drops in BBBY, PCLN and WU over the summer and more recently.



I find it ironic that you're bringing these criticisms up just now when I was one of the few naysayers who was short stocks up and through the 10/3/12-10/5/12 top and ramp in the stock market after QEternity.  Do you know how hard that was to hold short?  How could I have been that confident?  It's b/c, unlike other TA's, cycle theory allows timing of major turns.  It is the only TA method I know of that incorporates statistics.  I'm very curious, were the other analysts that you subscribe to short thru this turn?  Short interest was at an all time low as everyone thought Ben had their backs so I would tend to doubt they had the hutzpah like I did based on my knowledge of the 4yr cycle.  

One other thing about targets; I do in fact have one BIG long term target and I go over that relentlessly in my letter.  I don't worry about short term stuff.  I don't day trade either.  I recommend more intermediate term trading to smooth out the noise like QEternity.

As an aside, my personal stock account is up 98% oops, 67% YTD. Yesterday was the biggest day I've had in the green in years being all in short leveraged.  Let's not get into that as it's not verifiable but everyone here should know I'm brutally honest with what I claim.

As far as Bitcoin analysis, I'm the first to admit that I'm still building the database for it's price movements.  I do depend more on fundamentals and patterns to analyze that market.  But I am also up 69% since I began trading that market with an average entry price of $6.50.

Anyhow, thanks again for subscribing.
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November 08, 2012, 04:32:37 PM
 #835

one last thing.  i've been short Apple since last Spring.  i know other analysts went short too back then.  but how many had the confidence to leg in more as we went over $700 and were able to then ride it back down to where we are now?  for me, it was b/c of my knowledge of the cycles...
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November 08, 2012, 07:40:46 PM
 #836

Update
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November 08, 2012, 08:38:45 PM
 #837

Paying Heavily
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November 08, 2012, 09:09:45 PM
 #838

Performance
cypherdoc
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November 09, 2012, 02:35:25 AM
 #839

Bitcoin
cypherdoc
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November 09, 2012, 07:35:58 AM
 #840

After today's action I'm now up 71.33% YTD.

reference as to my holding my apple shorts when they cleared $700; Badbitcoin.

Lucif;  you've only had your subscription for a month.  Are you sure you understand cycle theory?  Its taken me years.
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