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Author Topic: When will the USA pay their debts, if ever?  (Read 20923 times)
Swordsoffreedom
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August 27, 2014, 11:43:08 AM
 #41

The government do not need to pay off the debt, they just need to issue new debt to cover the old debt. It would be a huge achievement if they can lower it, nevermind paying it back.

That only works while the currency is recognized and accepted by other countries as a means of payment
Once debt is no longer valued or another country collects to much debt from someone else it becomes a tool they can utilize whenever they want to as a political leverage or weapon.

So new debt works but only as long as a country wants to remain dependent on someone else good old interdependence ^^.
Except if the debt is nationally owned that is.

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August 27, 2014, 12:55:04 PM
 #42

also only works if the stock market remains ever increasing in order to allow financial institutions to lend at current asset reserve ratio levels, which requires more and more people to be herded into the stock market

also only works if we have an inflationary economy, deflation would bankrupt the government

also only works if people are sheep
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August 28, 2014, 03:53:00 AM
 #43

The government do not need to pay off the debt, they just need to issue new debt to cover the old debt. It would be a huge achievement if they can lower it, nevermind paying it back.

That only works while the currency is recognized and accepted by other countries as a means of payment
Once debt is no longer valued or another country collects to much debt from someone else it becomes a tool they can utilize whenever they want to as a political leverage or weapon.

So new debt works but only as long as a country wants to remain dependent on someone else good old interdependence ^^.
Except if the debt is nationally owned that is.
This is really not correct. As long as the government has sufficient revenue to be able to service their debt they will not have any issues. Generally speaking, in order to have enough revenue to service it's debt it will need to have it's economy grow at a faster rate then the rate in which it's total amount of debt grows. The currency that everything is paid in does not matter.

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August 28, 2014, 04:01:47 AM
 #44

The government do not need to pay off the debt, they just need to issue new debt to cover the old debt. It would be a huge achievement if they can lower it, nevermind paying it back.

That only works while the currency is recognized and accepted by other countries as a means of payment
Once debt is no longer valued or another country collects to much debt from someone else it becomes a tool they can utilize whenever they want to as a political leverage or weapon.

So new debt works but only as long as a country wants to remain dependent on someone else good old interdependence ^^.
Except if the debt is nationally owned that is.
This is really not correct. As long as the government has sufficient revenue to be able to service their debt they will not have any issues. Generally speaking, in order to have enough revenue to service it's debt it will need to have it's economy grow at a faster rate then the rate in which it's total amount of debt grows. The currency that everything is paid in does not matter.

Well there is a difference though since servicing the debt means that a government or its lenders are willing to take and accept payments on it.
That said if a country / interested party demands the full debt from another nation issues arise.
This is what is happening in Argentina through their bankruptcy crisis where Soros and them are not willing to take any service fees on the debt then you end up in the scenario I just mentioned.

Although that one is interesting since Argentina could fully service the debt because they can but they can't cut two different deals and that is where the problem lies. So it's not that they will not have any issues but sometimes weird situations occur
http://www.voanews.com/content/us-judge-orders-argentina-debt-row-hearing-amid-contempt-calls/2423522.html

During the 2005 and 2010 restructurings, holders of about 93 percent of Argentina's debt agreed to swap their bonds in deals giving them 25 cents to 29 cents on the dollar. Bondholders who did not participate including NML and Aurelius then turned to the courts seeking payment in full.
__
Happy hour is now in full swing at The Temple Bar, a busy British-style pub in the upscale Palermo Soho district of Buenos Aires. Over a pint of artisan pale ale, a young economist, Martin Trombetta, admits it is hard to tell from where we are sitting that his country is now in default again.

For many observers it is difficult to be sure whether this is even the case. Argentina's president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, continues to insist that the country has not recently defaulted on its sovereign debt for the second time in 13 years, while her chief finance minister, Axel Kicillof, accuses all those who think otherwise of dealing in "atomic nonsense".

"We're in default all right," says Trombetta, a researcher in labour econometrics at the National University of General Sarmiento. "Leaving all the legal minutiae aside, our access to credit  is null today. The markets have corroborated it."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/20/argentina-kirchner-debts-crisis-bond-holders-economics

A hypothetical scenario with American debts would be if China asked the US to pay upfront all the money its owed with commodities
The fact that it does remain a political leverage tool is not entirely incorrect.

That or ending a Peg like Syria did in 2007 to the US dollar where war will occur instead and debts are erased the old fashion way.
That or you trust Krugman XD

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August 28, 2014, 05:03:20 AM
 #45

I'd love to see government buildings and property liquidated to pay back debts and our unelected officials sent to foreign countries to violate human rights over there instead of here. No country should accept USD for debt service anymore.

Saying that you don't trust someone because of their behavior is completely valid.
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August 28, 2014, 05:21:25 AM
 #46

I'd love to see government buildings and property liquidated to pay back debts and our unelected officials sent to foreign countries to violate human rights over there instead of here. No country should accept USD for debt service anymore.

Forgive my cynicism but I felt like I had to say it, so much for a democracy  when you have military gear handed out to quell citizens in the United States good old Ferguson.

But I'm with you butter it would be nice to see them not violate human rights anywhere, but if it were really that simple between here or there most people would say go over there. As for debt service as long as the nation can handle the repercussions otherwise they are walking into a mouse trap that will be sprung on them later.

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August 28, 2014, 08:23:21 AM
 #47

If you think about it the USA has never paid much of it's debt back since the days of Jackson (who hated banks and paid the national debt off).  Basically it will roll its debt forward forever (or as long as investors will allow it) and the US will rely on inflation to reduce the real value of the debt.  Even a 2% inflation rate halves the real value of debt every 30 years or so, and I think we can expect higher inflation than that going forward.  (Though I have been wrong on this before.)

There was a time when people just assumed countries would never pay back debt.  A lot of early UK debt was perpetual.

Indeed! And some of that debt remains: it's a small part - now - of the total national debt, but the UK still has Napoleonic War debts, in the form of undated gilts. I believe the UK continued to issue undated gilts - perpetual debt - right up to the First World War. (Almost) within living memory.

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August 28, 2014, 12:52:00 PM
 #48

The only alternative i foresee in this regards is probably the trust the US have on world inflation to reduce the real value of the debt.So,out rightly they are not ready to pay up their debts.

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August 28, 2014, 12:58:58 PM
 #49

If you think about it the USA has never paid much of it's debt back since the days of Jackson (who hated banks and paid the national debt off).  Basically it will roll its debt forward forever (or as long as investors will allow it) and the US will rely on inflation to reduce the real value of the debt.  Even a 2% inflation rate halves the real value of debt every 30 years or so, and I think we can expect higher inflation than that going forward.  (Though I have been wrong on this before.)

There was a time when people just assumed countries would never pay back debt.  A lot of early UK debt was perpetual.

Indeed! And some of that debt remains: it's a small part - now - of the total national debt, but the UK still has Napoleonic War debts, in the form of undated gilts. I believe the UK continued to issue undated gilts - perpetual debt - right up to the First World War. (Almost) within living memory.

Can think of the debt as an investment during the war with French. Not paying off the debt can be viewed as a way to reward the lenders/investors for those to support UK during hard time.
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August 28, 2014, 01:55:46 PM
 #50

The debt is objectively speaking unpayable.
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August 28, 2014, 03:07:00 PM
 #51

I'd love to see government buildings and property liquidated to pay back debts and our unelected officials sent to foreign countries to violate human rights over there instead of here. No country should accept USD for debt service anymore.

Reminds me of the Detroit bankruptcy! Would be frightening for that to happen on a national scale.
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August 28, 2014, 03:12:24 PM
 #52

Never. Because they don't have to.
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August 28, 2014, 03:18:08 PM
 #53

I'd love to see government buildings and property liquidated to pay back debts and our unelected officials sent to foreign countries to violate human rights over there instead of here. No country should accept USD for debt service anymore.

Reminds me of the Detroit bankruptcy! Would be frightening for that to happen on a national scale.

Detroit isn't the only city rotting away. It just happen to be the most severe one.

There are many cities with billion dollar project which can't possibly add much value and usefulness to the local. We will see a lot more cities similar to what happen to Detroit 10-15 years down the road.
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August 28, 2014, 05:32:29 PM
 #54

It cant be done, get ready for bailouts  Roll Eyes
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August 28, 2014, 08:00:12 PM
 #55

Money is debt. Money is created by issuing loans.

If the debt is paid off there is no money, it is designed to never be paid off.

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August 29, 2014, 07:14:02 AM
 #56

It cant be done, get ready for bailouts  Roll Eyes

The question is about the government. Who will bail out the government?  Cheesy
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August 29, 2014, 08:06:41 AM
 #57

I don't think it's possible. Maybe default or hyperinflation will take care of it.
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August 29, 2014, 08:57:02 AM
 #58

I don't think it's possible. Maybe default or hyperinflation will take care of it.

You don't really have to take care of it. Just keep rolling over the debt in perpetuity and make sure that it doesn't balloon into something unmanageable. As long as the interest is serviced, the debt holders might not have an issue. The problem comes when the US won't be able to refinance this debt, but that is highly unlikely.
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August 29, 2014, 03:59:07 PM
 #59

It cant be done, get ready for bailouts  Roll Eyes

The question is about the government. Who will bail out the government?  Cheesy
You will. And you don't get a choice about it.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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August 29, 2014, 03:59:59 PM
 #60

I don't think it's possible. Maybe default or hyperinflation will take care of it.

You don't really have to take care of it. Just keep rolling over the debt in perpetuity and make sure that it doesn't balloon into something unmanageable. As long as the interest is serviced, the debt holders might not have an issue. The problem comes when the US won't be able to refinance this debt, but that is highly unlikely.
Way past that point. It's already impossible to pay the interest.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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