Weekly pool and network statistics

[organofcorti]

So ... I was trying to work out the CDF[Erl] of a pool getting 150 blocks a month, for 3 months, with mean difficulty of 1.25 (luck of 80%)

I can't get a reasonable result at the wolfram site it keeps telling me it's 1, so yeah I guess that means it should be ever so rare
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=CDF%5BErlangDistribution%5B450%2C+450%5D%2C++1.25%5D

Using my own code I get the same effective answer
cdf_gamma_Q is 0.999997 (and cdf_gamma_P is 2.7091e-06)

So that's like saying (in my non technical words) the chance of doing that badly or worse is like 1 chance in 369,126?

What am I doing wrong?

(and then it would be even worse with a higher number of blocks ...)

I get different results - a lower tail CDF of 0.9999996 and an upper tail CDF of 4.07395×10^-7, which is the same as the result I get from wolfram alpha. That's actually more improbable than that which you got.

Intuitively, these results seem correct. Are you sure there have been 450 blocks, and did you get the correct difficulties, and if all that's correct does it seem like the pool is publishing accurate d1eq shares per round? 



 

[kano]

OK, well calculating it myself using 'that' website information:

Looking at all the blocks in December (takes too long to do more, I'll just assume 1 month)
There are 230, -2 invalids so 228 blocks
The average Difficulty of those 230 is Sum(1/Luck)/228 = 1.2602600095% Mean Difficulty
Converted to luck that's 1/1.2602600095 = 79.34870522% for just December 228 blocks.

Using wolfram ... 228, 228, 1.26
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=CDF%5BErlangDistribution%5B228%2C+228%5D%2C++1.26%5D

0.999869 or, to be 79.34870522% or worse luck, expect ~1 in 7633.6 ... ~636 years - ok still pretty bad

[organofcorti]

If you want to send me the API url, I can quickly check. I can also look at the distribution of the luck statistic for each individual round, which might be informative.

[kano]

If you want to send me the API url, I can quickly check. I can also look at the distribution of the luck statistic for each individual round, which might be informative.

I just used his public web site, copy, paste, took a while

[Biffa]

guys i found somebody generate 12 btc regulary with this address: 1DXRoTT67mCbhdHHL1it4J1xsSZHHnFxYR

can anybody tell me how did this happened?

They have a large amount of hash rate and they manage to mine that many coins once or twice a day.

If you just search this thread they are mentioned as maybe being Telco214

[Chris01]

guys i found somebody generate 12 btc regulary with this address: 1DXRoTT67mCbhdHHL1it4J1xsSZHHnFxYR

can anybody tell me how did this happened?

daily ? weekly
interesting, i thought there is no benefit like this

[DrHaribo]

interesting, i thought there is no benefit like this

It's mining - this is how all bitcoins are created.