I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.
recent prices on ebay for used 7970's:
apr 17th - $415
apr 18th - $470
apr 18th - $530
apr 18th - $510
apr 19th - $423 (+ "variable" shipping rate)
apr 19th - $435 (+ "variable" shipping rate)
apr 19th - $405
apr 19th - $435
apr 20th - $420
apr 20th - $450
apr 21st - $515 (+ "variable shipping rate)
so you could sell those eight for maybe $475/ea on eBay (being generous), subtract the 9% eBay electronics fee + the paypal fee.... end up with around $430 (more likely, $20 or $30 less)? you're down $800 since feb 23rd, 150BTC doesn't even cover that
I wouldn't sell them on Ebay first of all. I have gaming forums I belong to where I could get $450-$475 pretty easily with payments that are fee free. So lets just say $450 for each card. I am down $80 per card. I purchased an $80 motherboard for each rig, and a $8 stick of RAM, and I got the processors and harddrives/cables as freebies from work as they were junking out machines. I purchased a $250 powersupply for $200 and I know I can re-sell for $200 for each rig. Taking all that into account I would be down $640 in cards, $0 in supplies, $160 in boards, and $16 in RAM. So a grand total of $810 in "loss" right now. That 150BTC that I just sold for $5.30 per covers most of the hardware depreciation cost so far. On top of that I have none of the Singles I bought since then. So I would have made zero money if I had just bought all BFL singles. I have no idea when the singles are going to show up.
I am still satisfied with my purchase of the 7970s. I played around with voltages and I am now down to 940W per 2.5GH/s.
Extrapolate your numbers until December 23 assuming $5 per BTC, 940W@$.06 per KW. Set the resale value of BFL to $0, and the resale value of the 7970 at $250. Let me know what you come up with. Also set the delivery date of my BFL singles to May 1st at the earliest.
Then move the price of recovery of the BFL single up until you get a break even point with the 7970s. Let me know what it would have to resell for, and when, for it to have been a better purchase than the 7970s.
I bought the XFX Black Edition 7970s, and I might have to go to $425 due to the price drop.