DiceBitco.in - New Thread to Discuss

[Joecker]

So mateo ran away with 600(or 1000?)btc. And manl is absolutely fully responsible for the lost of late investors as in the best case scenario for him -if he were honest the whole time- he should have denied withdrawal to mateo. And anyone with the lowest mathematical expertise would have seen that it was rigged. I am not even talking about halting the site etc.

So manl (god knows maybe...), we're talking about a few hundred thousands real dollars imaginary coins here:
- if you were honest all the time, is it all you can come up with as an explanation, a few forum posts ? were you physically unable to deny withdrawal to mateo ? are mentally challenged to not realize that mateo cheated ?
- if you're a thief, do you think you feel safer stealing a few $100k instead of $3M ?

[1714994453]

1714994453

[vinboy]

- if you're a thief, do you think you feel safer stealing a few $100k instead of $3M ?

to be honest, i don't feel safer to steal 100k instead of 3m, but i'm sure to feel dumber the next morning for not stealing the 3m if i were to steal the 100k anyway.

[Daanie]

People who think this isn't a scam. Wake up!

[suchmoon]

So has he taken the site "private" as he declared he would do? Anyone wants to try to invest and see if that's still allowed?

[mrhelpful]

I havent gotten any refund on my loss at the website. I just read this right now and ill update.

Open up a support ticket, they will run a script to see if you were affected and if so will issue you a deposit voucher to reclaim your coins.

I did, im just waiting for someone to get back to me.

I submitted my ticket around 2AM est and recieved the response under "closed" tickets around 9AM. The manual withdraw was posted about 15-20 minutes after the request and has since been confirmed.

Just to give you some rough time estimates.

So the support got back to me I wasnt affected. but I can of find it hard to believe, if the incident occurs on the same day as a whale lost his btc on Sept 7th. Which is when I placed bets as well.

Heres my my screen caps and response
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=774120.0

Edit: Never mind, after more reading I finally saw doog pointing out the "nonce" for the #`s and mine appears to be in order.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.940

[jaysabi]

So has he taken the site "private" as he declared he would do? Anyone wants to try to invest and see if that's still allowed?

You invest first.    Tell us if it's safe.

[seedtrue]

Makes me wonder if same kind of thing happened at his other site diceliteco.in

max win of 444 LTC  Site profit = -17,174.3479 LTC

[mrhelpful]

Makes me wonder if same kind of thing happened at his other site diceliteco.in

max win of 444 LTC  Site profit = -17,174.3479 LTC

Its hard to tell, because I just discovered the nonce # sequence skipped a number, which all should be numerical based on bets placed.

If you have a screen cap, that helps of the Bet ID when looking it up.  

Like this eg: when doog points out something fishy. I also linked that well.

[sherbyspark]

I am still curious to as why the site is still functional.
It seems they have no BTC in their wallets, and are just showing an investment of 1100 BTC to attract other players unaware of the scam. This would lead to those new player being scammed. For this reason the site should be shut down.

[mrhelpful]

I am still curious to as why the site is still functional.
It seems they have no BTC in their wallets, and are just showing an investment of 1100 BTC to attract other players unaware of the scam. This would lead to those new player being scammed. For this reason the site should be shut down.

If shit already hit the fan, and if you were a scammer wouldnt you want to milk the cow more longer. And make a utter confusion, like disabling chat etc. 

Its how most people work, typical mind set of a scammer.

[jaysabi]

If shit already hit the fan, and if you were a scammer wouldnt you want to milk the cow more longer. And make a utter confusion, like disabling chat etc. 

Its how most people work, typical mind set of a scammer.

Milk the cow longer and make udder confusion?

FTFY, I'll show myself out.

[RoooooR]

I am still curious to as why the site is still functional.
It seems they have no BTC in their wallets, and are just showing an investment of 1100 BTC to attract other players unaware of the scam. This would lead to those new player being scammed. For this reason the site should be shut down.

Because there are a lot of users keeping their sign to get a few bucks from their ad campaign. They are more greedy than these thiefts.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Because there are a lot of users keeping their sign to get a few bucks from their ad campaign. They are more greedy than these thiefts.

Yep. Leave them negative feedback.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Please also post here if you should have won BTC, but did not due to the nonce rigging, and was refused compensation by DiceBitco.in for your rightful winnings.

[a1choi]

Regarding the probability of mateo raping the bankroll I fear that it may not be "so" low.

The website was using half-kelly and standing to this link http://thehackensack.blogspot.fi/2009/11/half-kelly-bet.html the probability of losing, at some point, a percentage of the bankroll follows a quadratic function. In practice my initial invested amount was 0.11335743 and after all the mess I lost 0.09500235, so 83% of my investment. The probability of this to happen was roughly about 17%^2=2.9%, an acceptable number.  (Anyway, it would be great to have a usable model for making these kind of computations, instead of pointing the thumb.)

Regarding the "whale", we can argue that the probability of finding a gambler risking 1 BTC per play is NOT low and also the "timing" argument can hold in reverse: since the bankroll was rapidly diminishing a gambler could have felt compelled to play before seeing it disappear.

I'm sorry, but you're using Dubious math.  Kelly Betting is actually the amount the House "bets" which will increase their bankroll the quickest.  The Player does not enjoy kelly bets as they are betting in a -EV situation.  Kelly Betting is only for +EV (which in the case only pertains the House).  Thus the formula you are using to determine the chances of bankroll going to a certain % is not correct.  The correct % will be much much lower than 2%.

I DO agree that this could have been much worse. really.
It is not a perfect scenario like JD (where everyone was happy), but at least only last investors lost their money. sorry for them, i almost lost mine too.

The worst that could have happen is the owner runaway with 7000BTC (remember how mtgox affected so many lives?). That would be much more worse than what has happened.

By the way, is the nonce skipping bug fixed?? i wanna go back and play if it's fixed.

what would be best thing to do now if they want to continue the site is to have multiple people hold the key to the cold wallet.

WOW VINBOY. Do i understand you correctly.  You still WANT to play at this shithole?  How do you know they've really fixed the issue.  Just "Trust" what they say?  And basically what you said about the Last Investors getting fucked.  You think THATs somehow OK?  That only the last guys get fucked?

So you're saying that these guys are a fucking ponzi scam then?  Since the last suckers in a ponzi also get scammed too..

In my eyes, thats exactly what Manl/Gerry did..  Nothing better than a ponzi scam.

Edit: Also, stop rationalizing that these guys ONLY fucked people out of a little bit of money, and NOT run away with the 7K.  Scamming is scamming, whether for 0.01BTC or for 7K.  Just because they didn't take the money and run doesn't mean shit.  IT does not mean they're good guys.

For all that I know, they'd rather ONLY scam the last investors, instead of 100% of their investors.  Cuz they'd rather only have a few people after their heads, than everyone in the dice community.

[Joecker]

About how impossible mateo's winning were.. I made a few mistakes when computing the prob and corrected it. Sorry ! Since it was discussed here and here, I thought I'd come back.

The approximation actually gives a probability of winning +600 btc like mateo did of about 1 in 1 to 10 millions... (for extreme values like here final result is highly influenced by the computers numerical methods and their accuracy).

Whatever... mateo cheated. And fuck the scammer.

See what a hundred thousand simulations of normal 60k bets looks like (histogram=simulations, curve=model), the max profit was 424. Play with the numbers...

[a1choi]

About how impossible mateo's winning were.. I made a few mistakes when computing the prob and corrected it. Sorry ! Since it was discussed here and here, I thought I'd come back.

The approximation actually gives a probability of winning +600 btc like mateo did of about 1 in 1 to 10 millions... (for extreme values like here final result is highly influenced by the computers numerical methods and their accuracy).

Whatever... mateo cheated. And fuck the scammer.

See what a hundred thousand simulations of normal bets should have left for profit (histogram=simulations, curve=model), the max profit was 424. Play with the numbers...

so the Z score of that happening is 4.9. thats a 1 out of 2,130,000 chance.

[coin.princess]

It's always a shame to see things like this happen, especially given all of the honest operators who are in this for the long run (Primedice, Just-dice when they accepted bets, Win88 ...)

Operators should always aim to play the long game and it's critical to be honest and fair across the board.
And to have rockstar developers who build things right and use much more precision than 8 decimal places.

At win88.me we paid back our investors when we were allowing 99.99% edge investments (which was of course riskier for investors given dead even odds).
And we did so without anyone even asking. 

It's important to be proactive with or without a mistake and in this case I hope that DiceBitco.in finds a way to make things right with their players for the sake of integrity with the overall industry.

[Cluster2k]

Currently DB is reporting:

Bankroll:   522
Profit:   -320
Invested:   1131

Don't all invested funds get added to the bankroll?  Why is the bankroll less than half of what's currently invested?

[Quickseller]

Currently DB is reporting:

Bankroll:   522
Profit:   -320
Invested:   1131

Don't all invested funds get added to the bankroll?  Why is the bankroll less than half of what's currently invested?

They charge 10% commission on profits. I think it would likely have something to do with this.