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Author Topic: Chart reading.  (Read 2043 times)
John S.
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May 06, 2012, 11:21:22 PM
 #1

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?
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May 07, 2012, 05:26:54 AM
 #2

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?

Before the great bubble of '11, it was all log charts and straight lines.  Now it's non-log and triangles.

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While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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adamstgBit
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May 07, 2012, 05:33:28 AM
 #3

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?

Before the great bubble of '11, it was all log charts and straight lines.  Now it's non-log and triangles.
lol!

yup drawing lines on a chart always make me trade with more confidence Wink

S3052
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May 07, 2012, 05:43:36 PM
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Typically, you'd use log charts for longer term time frames (particularly when it involves exponential moves) and linear charts for the shorter term.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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MarketNeutral
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May 07, 2012, 05:57:46 PM
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Technical analysis is a very finessed artform. Personally, I think its limited value derives mostly from understanding how high-volume algos and plunge protection teams paint the charts. It's possible to glean some insight into where certain boundaries are, but one must always think outside the box. For example, why use a 200 dma when a 88 dma might be more helpful? Seems strange, but why is the 88 dma more helpful? Connect it to fundamental analysis and then you might make some money. TA informs fundamental analysis, but I would never rely on TA exclusively. In fact, I think it is very overrated. Rarely is it anything more than amateurish backwards-looking pretty pictures that sell subscriptions.

In terms of bitcoin, I don't have any opinion yet.

I suggest learning Japanese candlesticks and another method of your choosing. Don't learn just one.
kokjo
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May 07, 2012, 06:18:51 PM
 #6

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?
Crystal balls and related methods.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
MarketNeutral
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May 07, 2012, 06:20:51 PM
 #7

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?
Crystal balls and related methods.
This is the best method:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haruspex
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cypherdoc
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May 07, 2012, 06:37:37 PM
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Technical analysis is a very finessed artform. Personally, I think its limited value derives mostly from understanding how high-volume algos and plunge protection teams paint the charts. It's possible to glean some insight into where certain boundaries are, but one must always think outside the box.

i call it learning how to think like a criminal.  it is important and i mix 30% fundamentals in with 70% technicals.

Quote
For example, why use a 200 dma when a 88 dma might be more helpful? Seems strange, but why is the 88 dma more helpful? Connect it to fundamental analysis and then you might make some money. TA informs fundamental analysis, but I would never rely on TA exclusively. In fact, I think it is very overrated. Rarely is it anything more than amateurish backwards-looking pretty pictures that sell subscriptions.

to each his own but i've proven it to myself that it is indeed possible to pick major corners using TA.  its much harder to call the short term twists and turns.  but it is an artform that requires alot of work and precision.  cycle theory is dependent on alot of statistical work and historical analysis.  it can be painstaking but its worth it.

Quote
In terms of bitcoin, I don't have any opinion yet.

I suggest learning Japanese candlesticks and another method of your choosing. Don't learn just one.

i am in the process of determining average cycle lengths for Bitcoin and i've come to some very interesting conclusions.
MarketNeutral
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May 07, 2012, 06:50:46 PM
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Technical analysis is a very finessed artform. Personally, I think its limited value derives mostly from understanding how high-volume algos and plunge protection teams paint the charts. It's possible to glean some insight into where certain boundaries are, but one must always think outside the box.

i call it learning how to think like a criminal.  it is important and i mix 30% fundamentals in with 70% technicals.

Quote
For example, why use a 200 dma when a 88 dma might be more helpful? Seems strange, but why is the 88 dma more helpful? Connect it to fundamental analysis and then you might make some money. TA informs fundamental analysis, but I would never rely on TA exclusively. In fact, I think it is very overrated. Rarely is it anything more than amateurish backwards-looking pretty pictures that sell subscriptions.

to each his own but i've proven it to myself that it is indeed possible to pick major corners using TA.  its much harder to call the short term twists and turns.  but it is an artform that requires alot of work and precision.  cycle theory is dependent on alot of statistical work and historical analysis.  it can be painstaking but its worth it.

Quote
In terms of bitcoin, I don't have any opinion yet.

I suggest learning Japanese candlesticks and another method of your choosing. Don't learn just one.

i am in the process of determining average cycle lengths for Bitcoin and i've come to some very interesting conclusions.

I have no doubt that TA can be helpful for picking major moves.

And you're right about it being dependent upon statistical and historical analysis!  Smiley

Although I find most TA experts to be charlatans, I'll be first to admit I've studied a great deal of TA from Kondratiev to Dow Theory to Martin Armstrong. I don't agree with it all, but I can see the value if done right. Just last month I used an Ichimoku cloud to help me advise one of my clients. But as you know, it's an artform, not a science.
naima53
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May 07, 2012, 06:55:58 PM
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I use the sense of selling pressure \ buying pressure. In conjunction with technical analysis and the "herd instinct" of players.

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MarketNeutral
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May 07, 2012, 07:03:32 PM
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I'd be remiss not to mention the importance of market psychology and contrarian investing. See where the herd is going. Is it worth following them and riding the bubble, or is better to invest against their over-weighted positions?
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May 07, 2012, 07:07:38 PM
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I'd be remiss not to mention the importance of market psychology and contrarian investing. See where the herd is going. Is it worth following them and riding the bubble, or is better to invest against their over-weighted positions?

yes, this is called "intuition".
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May 07, 2012, 07:25:06 PM
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I'd be remiss not to mention the importance of market psychology and contrarian investing. See where the herd is going. Is it worth following them and riding the bubble, or is better to invest against their over-weighted positions?

yes, this is called "intuition".
Only if you don't know what you're doing.

A great deal of such information in quantifiable. Not all of it, but enough. Visit the Wilmott forum to get an idea of how this is done. It's not easy, but a decent quant can produce high alpha low beta returns based on contrarian indicators.

I'm surprised at your response, because technical analysis can include such aspects as contrarian investing and market psychology.

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May 07, 2012, 07:26:47 PM
 #14

Based on experience, one can trade exclusively using TA. I ignore completely any news since many years, and the more I focus on TA, the better my trading got.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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MarketNeutral
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May 07, 2012, 07:30:06 PM
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Based on experience, one can trade exclusively using TA. I ignore completely any news since many years, and the more I focus on TA, the better my trading got.
Interesting. I've only met a few 100% pure TA traders, but all of them were successful. The ones that were not successful (>99%) were actually the ones who followed the news and other garbage financial headlines and claimed "90% TA" or something like that.
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May 07, 2012, 07:40:02 PM
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Based on experience, one can trade exclusively using TA. I ignore completely any news since many years, and the more I focus on TA, the better my trading got.
Interesting. I've only met a few 100% pure TA traders, but all of them were successful. The ones that were not successful (>99%) were actually the ones who followed the news and other garbage financial headlines and claimed "90% TA" or something like that.

This is spot on. Whenever I start using even only 1% of fundamentals, I get into the danger zone. This is why I have only charts on my screen, without even having a chance to read or hear the news when I am making any trading decisions.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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mysteriousawake
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May 08, 2012, 02:25:39 AM
 #17

I think the news was wr0te after the TA  was done .  It was planed.  Already known.  Think , The Euro Zone was meant to crash now and was known well since its beginning.  A B C.  done.  Now it recovers or fails.

What do you think.

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MarketNeutral
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May 08, 2012, 03:07:20 AM
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I think the news was wr0te after the TA  was done .  It was planed.  Already known.  Think , The Euro Zone was meant to crash now and was known well since its beginning.  A B C.  done.  Now it recovers or fails.

What do you think.

I think it's clear to anyone with eyes to see that financial news (Bloomberg, CNBC, etc) is never ahead of the story and exists to pump and dump and to persuade people regardless of what's in their best interest. As to your specific point, yeah, such things do happen as planned, and probably often. It's hard to prove but easy to see.
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May 29, 2012, 07:53:50 PM
 #19

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?
Crystal balls and related methods.
Some people use R, which doesn't seem to be related.

cytokine
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May 30, 2012, 03:51:43 AM
 #20

What is the standard method for reading charts and predicting market movements based on them?

What does this community use?

I highly recommend Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals.

The problem most CMT's have in my experience is that they don't do rigorous statistical analysis of their methodology.
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