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Author Topic: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies  (Read 9219 times)
Mageant
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May 25, 2012, 08:14:23 PM
 #21

BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

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May 25, 2012, 08:24:22 PM
 #22

BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real Fantasy world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

FTFY  Wink

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May 26, 2012, 12:53:54 AM
 #23

BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

I thought you were trolling with those real world predictions but then I read your other posts.  O.o

(BFL)^2 < 0
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May 26, 2012, 01:54:07 AM
 #24

GNU / Linux has about 1% market share on the desktop by some of the most conservative estimates. http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?. For Bitcoin to reach 1% market share one BTC would be worth approx !0,000 USD. How to get this figure:

World M1 money supply value approx 21,000,000,000,000 USD. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1231778551.php Maximum number of BTC 21,000,000. Purchasing power of 1 BTC for 100% market share. 1,000,000 USD 1% of 1,000,000 USD equals 10,000 USD.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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May 26, 2012, 03:34:51 PM
 #25

I do agree that from a technical point of view Bitcoin does correspond to M0 or at best Monetary Base; however its use on the other hand does not. Take Bitcoinica for example. We all know that they had a hot wallet with 20% of their BTC reserves that was stolen and a cold wallet with 80% that was not. The BTC reserves correspond to M0. But what about the USD reserves? Were they held in wads of US $100 bills under Zhou Tong's mattress?  Not likely, they were more likely on deposit with one or more financial institutions forming part of M1 or even broader money. There is a fundamental asymmetry here.

This reality is true for individuals and business alike. If they hold BTC and fiat, the BTC is for the most part in a wallet forming part of M0 while the fiat on the other hand is on deposit with one or more financial institutions forming part of M1 or broader. If one considers payments we have a similar situation. Bitcoin is not just a replacement for cash (M0) but for debit cards, PayPal, credit cards etc. Again M1 or broader.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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May 30, 2012, 04:04:15 AM
 #26

Is anyone taking care of BIP 33? Most of these predictions (mine included) seem to assume that there won't be any show-stoppers regarding scalability. But if Satoshidice is currently adding 100MB to the blockchain per month, stick on some growth and some other businesses also pulling a lot of traffic, and it could be as much as 50GB before the end of this year. We can't rely on Moore's Law to magically fix everything if some aspects of Bitcoin are expected to grow much faster than 2x per ~18 months.

This also concerns me... I hadn't heard of BIP 33 yet, thanks for the heads up.

BTW found it here.
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June 06, 2012, 07:28:04 PM
 #27

Quote
The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.
Put your money where your mouth is Grin
Bet in my sig

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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June 06, 2012, 07:31:33 PM
 #28

Quote
The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.
Put your money where your mouth is Grin
Bet in my sig

I already did. I created that bet.
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=25

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June 06, 2012, 08:21:04 PM
 #29

Next 2 years:

Romney becomes the next president of the US.  Pursues a policy very similar to Obama...
Or Obama wins and does the same.

Additional government reports come out linking Bitcoin to illegal activities.

Government regulatory agencies push AML/KYC requirements.

Mt Gox gets hacked, again.

Another bitcoin trading service gets hacked.  All coins lost despite promises to investigate and return a portion of funds.

Satoshi returns, and wants to know what the hell Gavin did to his client.  Turns out he was doing time in a Philipeano jail for solicitation of an underage prostitute.  Yet somehow served his sentence as Satoshi, keepin his real ID an ongoing mystery.

DEA raids the servers of SilkRoad after receiving an anonymous tip from a disgruntled employee who got ripped by Tony97 or whatever his handle was.  The raid does not net DPR, who relaunches the site quickly and continues to evade Interpol, and is believed to be hiding in Iceland or Sweden.  Later is elected to the European parliament as a member of the Pirate Party.

"It is, quite honestly, the biggest challenge to central banking since Andrew Jackson." -evoorhees
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June 07, 2012, 08:43:53 AM
 #30

Satoshi returns, and wants to know what the hell Gavin did to his client.  Turns out he was doing time in a Philipeano jail for solicitation of an underage prostitute.  Yet somehow served his sentence as Satoshi, keepin his real ID an ongoing mystery.

Lol'd!  Grin
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June 09, 2012, 07:49:45 AM
 #31

Is anyone taking care of BIP 33? Most of these predictions (mine included) seem to assume that there won't be any show-stoppers regarding scalability. But if Satoshidice is currently adding 100MB to the blockchain per month, stick on some growth and some other businesses also pulling a lot of traffic, and it could be as much as 50GB before the end of this year. We can't rely on Moore's Law to magically fix everything if some aspects of Bitcoin are expected to grow much faster than 2x per ~18 months.

It is my understanding that all of the BTC scalability problems can be solved with relatively uncontroversial updates:

1. 10^15 units -> Protocol can be updated so that satoshi is no longer the smallest unit. No one should disagree to this.

2. Block size -> Older spent transactions can be deleted PLUS today the chain is being spammed with fee less transactions - once we have just 1/10000 part fees most of that will be taken care of.

3. 51% attacks -> Client will likely be updated with an IP-filter at some point and then people can quickly filter out disruptive players, maybe even propagating their block-list through the network.


I think my BTC value prediction for 2012 is already failing, the value is rising TOO rapidly! Of course it might be a bubble or slow down again...
(Glad I bought a bunch at 5.06)

Anyways I'm long so it's fine.

Cheap and sexy Bitcoin card/hardware wallet, buy here:
http://BlochsTech.com
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June 09, 2012, 04:36:02 PM
 #32

I think my BTC value prediction for 2012 is already failing, the value is rising TOO rapidly! Of course it might be a bubble or slow down again...
(Glad I bought a bunch at 5.06)

Anyways I'm long so it's fine.

I think it's very difficult to predict an exact price target for Bitcoin because of the mostly nonlinear nature of price movements in general and the high volatility of Bitcoin in particular. I suppose we are about to enter another bubble phase right now.

Given the uncertain economic situation globally (a catalyst for Bitcoin) with its possible intense effects on monetary policy, prediction of Bitcoin pricing should better be expressed in relation to a relatively supply-inelastic commodity. Using gold as such a commodity I would predict a BTC price of 5-10% POG by mid-2014.

Unless a fundamental design flaw is discovered, I expect that upcoming problems (whether technical or political) will be overcome due to the high motivation of the existing bitcoiners to preserve their investment.

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June 17, 2012, 03:02:09 AM
 #33

I think bitcoin will have its 'Napster' moment the way mp3 sharing did with the RIAA.

This means that the government/banks will have a complete and utter freak out once they realize bitcoin is routing around all their carefully placed restrictions and fees. The curious prodding of three letter agencies aside, the real shoe-drop moment will be when sovereign institutions have outright bans on transfer of money toward bitcoin interests, perhaps with stiff legal penalties.

I'd rather not have this occur, but once anyone of reasonable power fully understands what is going on, the only way to stop the bleeding is to contain the fiat currency from being converted. Hopefully, it will be way too late to really stop anything, as I'd like to see the bitcoin economy go toward full bitcoin-to-bitcoin transactions, and less currency exchange on the periphery.

I think the collapse of the Eurodollar will spur more volume in foreign currencies, and increasingly harsh conditions in the US economy will spur a search for stores of value independent of the dollar.

On a personal note, I've become more involved in iPhone and Android development, so hopefully once I get some cycles to burn, I can devote my time toward furthering bitcoin in the mobile space.

As for price, I expect wide variations with upward trending being the norm. So, a few 2% - 3% spikes as new interest comes in, followed with higher plateaus. I'd also prefer it not to swing up too rapidly, letting the whole ecosystem grow with a nice price 'floor' underneath it.

By next year I expect it to be close to 9 - 10 on a dollar pricing basis, unless Bernanke prints a *lot* more in the form of debt, then the dollar's increasing erosion will multiply that figure considerably.



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June 17, 2012, 03:12:47 AM
 #34

I think bitcoin will have its 'Napster' moment the way mp3 sharing did with the RIAA.

This means that the government/banks will have a complete and utter freak out once they realize bitcoin is routing around all their carefully placed restrictions and fees. The curious prodding of three letter agencies aside, the real shoe-drop moment will be when sovereign institutions have outright bans on transfer of money toward bitcoin interests, perhaps with stiff legal penalties.

I'd rather not have this occur, but once anyone of reasonable power fully understands what is going on, the only way to stop the bleeding is to contain the fiat currency from being converted. Hopefully, it will be way too late to really stop anything, as I'd like to see the bitcoin economy go toward full bitcoin-to-bitcoin transactions, and less currency exchange on the periphery.

I think that if and when bitcoin reaches the point where the agents of governments really devote time to specifically target it, it will be too late and its adoption in System D will have irreversibly entrenched it economic life.
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June 17, 2012, 03:44:10 AM
 #35

come on....

this is what will happen





 Grin
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June 17, 2012, 11:26:50 AM
 #36

At the rate it has been rising over the last month, its up over $1 on what it was a month a go. I see it hitting $8 or more by December. Then it will likely rise to around $10 before stabilizing there for the following few years.

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June 17, 2012, 01:00:00 PM
 #37

1st July 2013: $15 - $25
1st July 2014: $75 - $100
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May 20, 2014, 10:00:11 PM
 #38

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago. I was off on the $2,000+ valuation, though probably a bit closer in sentiment to what actually has happened over the last two years price-wise since most of these guys only saw increases of tens of dollars or less, which was easy to do since it was only ~$5/coin.

What I really wanted to draw attention to was the the rest of my comment, specifically the part in bold below...

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that. Difficulty will have also increased to match that. We'll be seeing second-generation dedicated ASICs coming out around this time. The people mining won't be consumers and there will be only maybe a hundred major players, most of which have government regulations to deal with and forced transaction fees to collect, however the expenses will be low.

I'm not sure if there's only maybe 100 major miners out there or less, there's definitely thousands of small operations (which I'm glad to see). Also not sure on the miners necessarily having "forced transaction fees" though we did have minimums in many clients. Government regulations are definitely a thing right now. I think the Antminer S2 qualifies as second gen ASIC, though I suppose that's arguable, most people might go solely by die-type.

Also note Vladamir's prediction here...

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.

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May 20, 2014, 10:29:07 PM
 #39

It's interesting reading through these predictions. Although the predictions were only for the next two years, most of them are very far from what really happend.

While they were optimistic regarding the bitcoin price, they were - as a group - not optimistic enough... so what do we learn from this? Grin

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May 20, 2014, 10:31:47 PM
 #40

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago.

Nice Wink

I've always been impressed by this post from adam:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1026305#msg1026305

Quote
(July 12, 2012)

this is the game plan for the next 364 days



 100$ a coin   Cheesy

Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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