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Author Topic: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies  (Read 9225 times)
Realpra
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May 22, 2012, 04:53:03 PM
 #1

BTC:
BTC increase in value for 2012 will average out at 25-32% - until December when the block reward drops.

With some portion of 3600 BTC fewer hitting the markets each day the rate will rapidly change.

This will create a short-term bubble in early 2013 which will later crash. Overall 2013 will have BTC grow in value by around 50% or double 2012.

Before the bubble crashes it will spawn another media blitz and attention will be brought to all the VCs looking to get into BTC - it is among other things the entrance of these big boys that drive 2013 growth.

By early 2014 bitcoin will be used regularly in some real world business.

However the fact that BTC is still for relatively rich and geeky people with smart phones and or computers will limit growth.

Less certain real world predictions:
Greece will likely default before 2013 is out or even in the coming months. Obama looses to Romney since Romney is prettier, but "good-guy movements" grow in power and record numbers will register with independent parties or not vote.

This could start huge banking failures around the world once more in 2012 with untold consequences. If this does NOT happen oil price will climb higher than 130$/barrel and as time goes on the likelihood of another financial crisis increases.

With Romney in power the US becomes as fascist as ever and cold war style incursions over oil fields even with another 2nd world country such as China are likely - for instance with drones against drones or hackers.
Sometime before July/2014.

After a 10 year lull global warming picks up speed a bit between 2010 and 2014, methane plumes, dirty coal, fracking and tar sands play part in this.
Nothing too drastic though, just more crazy weather.

China/India growth slows. China growth in 2014 will be around 5%.

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http://BlochsTech.com
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May 22, 2012, 06:38:19 PM
 #2

Bitcoin will become more difficult to use within the EU & US (also many other western nations) due to exchange restrictions.

Bitcoin's amplifying effect will prove a boon to developing/emerging economies worldwide, allowing them to erode developed nations' dominance. More economic systems will unofficially begin to favor bitcoins as a unit base over their own domestic currencies, relying on reserves of fiat and/or gold primarily to conduct trade with developed countries that fight Bitcoin.

Underground usage of Bitcoin will be boosted by interface simplification and more reliable & robust backup/storage methods. Meshnets will allow continued, though punishable, Bitcoin usage even within restrictive environments such as the EU & US.

More alternatives like Namecoin/Dot-Bit will attach to the Bitcoin network via shared mining, providing a "lateral reserve" system of sorts. Think of Facebook Credits hitching along like NMC - proprietary aspects may be introduced in alternative chains this way while Bitcoin remains the foundation. The first of these could be a full-fledged voting system as early as 2013. Credit systems (Fractional Reserve, Hawala/referral, or new styles) may develop based on any of the blockchains.

Seasteading efforts are likely to adopt Bitcoin as a secondary currency, possibly with the launch of Blueseed (estimated to be launched late 2013 to 2014).
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May 22, 2012, 07:05:29 PM
 #3

There are markets for these.    Prediction markets.

Why not create some bet statements on Bets Of Bitcoin?

 e.g.,
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=206

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May 23, 2012, 05:27:22 AM
 #4

Next 2 years:  between $3 and $7.
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May 23, 2012, 05:47:27 AM
 #5

In the next 2 years:

1. Supersonic airlines will not revive.
2. There will not be any serious breakthrough in fusion power.
3. Cellphone-like devices will not be widely implanted into human bodies.

drakahn
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May 23, 2012, 06:18:14 AM
 #6

$7.50 before september, then either down to $5 or up to $10 after december
$7 in one years time.
$10 before september 2013, then either $7.50 or $15 by december 2013
$11 in two years time.

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May 23, 2012, 08:13:57 AM
 #7

Price charts will continue to oscillate to the completion of orders placed in asks and bids with a corresponding change in volumes recorded.
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May 23, 2012, 01:12:39 PM
 #8

I think a lot of people miscalculate the small number of people that currently participate in this economy - and under estimate the effect that the rest of the world will have on the value of Bitcoin. When the network effect and understood benefits of Bitcoin reach the ends of the earth, their value will be un-fucking believably immense.

I think the easy availability of Bitcoin in the USA coming in 2012 and the reduction of inflation will cause another media hype that will be sufficient to begin the phase of global awareness. These new Bitcoiners will cause another volatile exchange rate for the rest of us during 2013. This will also force the development of more services and applications.

By 2014, I think merchants will have enough understanding about Bitcoin and trust in its store of value to begin adoption and we will start to see an increase in acceptability.

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May 23, 2012, 03:56:09 PM
 #9

I think we'll stagnate around $5 for the remainder of the year, with a small bubble around July 4th.  Another bubble will occur around December 31st, this one being much bigger.  Once that deflates, it'lll settle around $10 and slowly grow from there.  Most likely hitting the $12-$15 range 2 years from today.

That or it will be worthless tomorrow.  Probably one of the two.

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Qoheleth
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May 23, 2012, 09:47:34 PM
 #10

As far as Bitcoin as a market: I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again. I also think there will be some rising price as the block reward cut approaches, followed by a slight price slip once it occurs (in typical buy on rumor/sell on news fashion).

As far as economies in general (including the Bitcoin economy): I think two years is not long enough for Bitcoin to become the primary mode of exchange in anything but a community specifically engineered to use it (e.g. the seasteading stuff miscreanity mentioned, if those projects actually get off the ground). Similarly, I can't take theories of "bitcoin outlawed" or "USD collapses" or similar seriously in the context of a 2 year timescale; unsustainable things are being done, but we are a long way from the point where they can no longer be propped up civilly.

Frankly from what is out there right now, this looks no more credible then Steorn (which claimed to be a first-order perpetuum mobile and turned out to be a lot of hot air and magnet superstition).

I mean, good on them if they managed it, but I have serious doubts.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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May 24, 2012, 05:39:47 PM
 #11

Well, without the benefit of hindsight, ordinary nuclear power might sound like a massive "perpetual motion" scam as well. I mean seriously, self-heating based on some mumbo-jumbo theory about atoms and radio-activity? However, the US of A and other countries poured tons of money into research anyway. Therefore, the ongoing scepticism and lack of funding this time round seems suspicious in its own right. Hot fusion seems more of a dead-end to me: extremely large, complex reactors, which will wear out from the heat and from induced radioactivity, yet their research funding is magnitudes higher...
To me, here's what makes it like Steorn: a person is claiming to have made an invention that requires a new physics, and refuses to show unambiguously that it works (or how it works) although it would be within his power to do so. In the case of nuclear power, the new physics was developed first, and proven in unambiguous experiments, and then the engineers set to work to harness it.

But this is somewhat off the topic, I think.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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May 24, 2012, 09:36:34 PM
 #12

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.

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May 24, 2012, 09:55:41 PM
 #13

Let me ask you this: how long did it take for Linux, a product that was
both free and miles ahead of the competition in the server space to
actually gain anything close to a decent foothold in said space ?

Let's just hope it doesn't end up like the Linux desktop which never really took off, at least not to the extent people were predicting in the mid 2000s.
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May 24, 2012, 10:03:36 PM
 #14

Who cares about desktop?


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bitsire
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May 24, 2012, 10:14:43 PM
 #15

Who cares about desktop?

Back in around 2005 all you heard about is how Linux would eventually gain wide acceptance in the desktop space. It didn't. In fact, quite the opposite - now the mantra is "no desktop at all, everything on the cloud".

So with the Linux desktop analogy, I'm just saying that I sure hope Bitcoin does NOT end up like the Linux desktop where years later it is still around and going strong, yet somehow has still not managed to gain widespread acceptance.
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May 24, 2012, 10:34:56 PM
 #16


Actually, if you take into account that Android is in fact built
on top of Linux, one could make a case that it's also gained a
fairly decent foothold with everyday people Smiley

Good point  Smiley  For the record, I've been using Linux since Redhat 5.2. Your Linux reference just reminded me of the major hype around the Linux desktop back then, and how it is still around and improving but never really took off the way people thought it would (i.e. Windoze killer).

As for Bitcoin price, IMHO I see the Bitcoin value going higher, MUCH higher due to all the uncertainties regarding fiat currencies, and for the simple reason that as governments around the world become more and more totalitarian, more and more people are going to be looking for ways to hide their wealth and purchases from the tax man  Grin
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May 25, 2012, 02:55:50 AM
 #17


Actually, if you take into account that Android is in fact built
on top of Linux, one could make a case that it's also gained a
fairly decent foothold with everyday people Smiley

Good point  Smiley  For the record, I've been using Linux since Redhat 5.2. Your Linux reference just reminded me of the major hype around the Linux desktop back then, and how it is still around and improving but never really took off the way people thought it would (i.e. Windoze killer).

As for Bitcoin price, IMHO I see the Bitcoin value going higher, MUCH higher due to all the uncertainties regarding fiat currencies, and for the simple reason that as governments around the world become more and more totalitarian, more and more people are going to be looking for ways to hide their wealth and purchases from the tax man  Grin

Hey another 5.2 guy Cheesy I got it with with PowerPC as a cover disk, feel in love, installed Enlightenment with a funky theme and never looked back. 

Never made the impact on the desktop we were hoping for, but I have made a career out of being a linux SysAdmin and I can say it is definitely a success in the server market.

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May 25, 2012, 02:43:27 PM
 #18

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that. Difficulty will have also increased to match that. We'll be seeing second-generation dedicated ASICs coming out around this time. The people mining won't be consumers and there will be only maybe a hundred major players, most of which have government regulations to deal with and forced transaction fees to collect, however the expenses will be low.

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May 25, 2012, 03:12:51 PM
 #19

I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again.
I raise you to "Bitcoin will not fall below $4/coin."
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May 25, 2012, 04:59:25 PM
 #20

I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again.
I raise you to "Bitcoin will not fall below $4/coin."

I hope you're right, but a lot can happen in two years. A one-dollar price fluctuation would have been nothing strange just a few months ago, and I'm not quite convinced we've left volatility behind.

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that.
I could see this happening in ten years, depending on how things go, but I can't see it happening in two.

In fact, I'm sure enough about it that I'd propose a futures contract on the matter if I knew I could even find you two years from now Wink

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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