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Author Topic: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies  (Read 9229 times)
yayayo
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May 20, 2014, 10:37:51 PM
 #41

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago.

Nice Wink

I've always been impressed by this post from adam:

Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.

I don't think adam took it seriously neither. Sometimes you jokingly grab reality by her balls without even knowing. Grin

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Raize
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May 20, 2014, 10:48:47 PM
 #42

Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.

Wow, yeah, that was a pretty crazy graph/prediction. I still think pirate@40 was behind the price increase of $7-$12 (and subsequent fall) in a relatively short time frame. I think he had someone he was either buying or selling coins for, someone that was never revealed, likely due to their involvement in SR at the time. I think pirate did not originally intend to run a Ponzi, either, but ran afoul of this other person and never got a chance to buy back at a lower price because at that point the price had quit falling and the demand had become too great.

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May 20, 2014, 11:24:29 PM
 #43

$7.50 before september, then either down to $5 or up to $10 after december
$7 in one years time.
$10 before september 2013, then either $7.50 or $15 by december 2013
$11 in two years time.

How cute.

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May 20, 2014, 11:26:12 PM
 #44

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.

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May 20, 2014, 11:28:57 PM
 #45

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.

If he stood by his convictions, then I'm sure he's on a private yacht in the Mediterranean now Smiley

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
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May 20, 2014, 11:31:10 PM
 #46

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago. I was off on the $2,000+ valuation, though probably a bit closer in sentiment to what actually has happened over the last two years price-wise since most of these guys only saw increases of tens of dollars or less, which was easy to do since it was only ~$5/coin.

What I really wanted to draw attention to was the the rest of my comment, specifically the part in bold below...



Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.

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May 21, 2014, 05:59:40 PM
 #47

Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.

Well, I tried, anyway. My assumption was that we'd be at the point of second-gen ASICs getting more and more into the hands of "the right kind of miner", ie, someone that mines and holds instead of mines and sells. Someone that is willing to put off instant gratification for a more delayed financial standing. That tends to happen only every year and a half or so, and follows an extended price decline. I think we're close, but this could be a build-up that takes another 6 months to fully develop. It'll be important to not be the weak hands that sell early on in the first couple of upticks in price next time around.

Just keep your day jobs and accumulate and you'll be fine. It could be very rocky for a long while.

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May 21, 2014, 07:20:53 PM
 #48

Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.

Well, I tried, anyway. My assumption was that we'd be at the point of second-gen ASICs getting more and more into the hands of "the right kind of miner", ie, someone that mines and holds instead of mines and sells. Someone that is willing to put off instant gratification for a more delayed financial standing. That tends to happen only every year and a half or so, and follows an extended price decline. I think we're close, but this could be a build-up that takes another 6 months to fully develop. It'll be important to not be the weak hands that sell early on in the first couple of upticks in price next time around.

Just keep your day jobs and accumulate and you'll be fine. It could be very rocky for a long while.

True enough.  I have a job until the day I reach my retirement number.  (Note: I am nowhere near 65.)

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May 21, 2014, 08:08:07 PM
 #49

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.

If he stood by his convictions, then I'm sure he's on a private yacht in the Mediterranean now Smiley

The Vladimir club, reserved for those who hold at least 2100 Bitcoin (0.1% of the total supply of 21M), is named after him. Validimir's fine Smiley

zerk89
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May 21, 2014, 11:47:44 PM
 #50

July-August 2014: $4,000-7,000 ATH
End of 2014: $2,200-3,300
March-May 2015: $20,000-30,000 ATH
July-August 2015: $12,500-15,000
by end of 2015: $100,000+ ATH
This will be the point where everyone and his dog will own some BTC, the prices will no longer be influenced by miner supply of coins, this will be the leviathan bubble of bitcoin. Driven by speculation within the next year after 2015, it will be between $100,000 to $1,000,000 a coin, and so much hashrate will be churned as a result of this.


At some point more power efficient miners (Drastic peformance improvements) Will come out, the super bubble will deflate to 3-4x times less than its value (like the 2011 bubble when GPU miners got displaced by ASICS), only to reclaim the ATH 1.5 years later and break way past it.

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May 21, 2014, 11:52:05 PM
 #51

July-August 2014: $4,000-7,000 ATH
End of 2014: $2,200-3,300
March-May 2015: $20,000-30,000 ATH
July-August 2015: $12,500-15,000
by end of 2015: $100,000+ ATH
This will be the point where everyone and his dog will own some BTC, the prices will no longer be influenced by miner supply of coins, this will be the leviathan bubble of bitcoin. Driven by speculation within the next year after 2015, it will be between $100,000 to $1,000,000 a coin, and so much hashrate will be churned as a result of this.




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