XMR baghodler reporting in- the uncensored version

[baghodler]

In this thread XMR baghodlers (read: all current investors) are invited to have free discourse without worrying about being censored for displaying opinions that don't correlate with the pro-monero hivemind or including facepalm gifs

For the first time in can't remember how long (early in the history of this thread that's for sure), I exercised moderator power and deleted a post by "bagholder" (a newbie sock puppet, which is already a warning sign) that was one part trolling and one part promoting BBR.

I don't care if you are negative on Monero, or like another coin better, but I'm not interested in the trolling style of posting meme pictures and such on this thread. Nor obvious sock puppets.

Say what you want to say in a courteous respectful tone, even if you disagree, or say it elsewhere.

I will be adding an explicit warning against blatant sock puppetry and trolling to the OP as well.

Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.

Deleted post verbatim:

I somewhat now see some arguments for changing the emission - best would be if could change the emission and adapt the current amount of coins accordingly, but I think this is really impossible.

maybe I am wrong and the social contract is less important than the fixing - I am really really unsure about this.

We may need a new CN coin to implement the thoughts here.

If only there was a CN coin which didn't have poorly thought out emission curve from inception...

Oh wait there was! and not only did the emission curve not have to be retroactively adjusted, *completely* violating the social contract, it also synced from scratch 20x faster (12 minutes vs 4 hours) had 3x smaller blockchain, with the ability to trim well into the future, a intuitive native GUI (no endless promises), native aliases, improvements to anonymity set, arguably better PoW and generally was not praised as the second coming of jesus by a bunch of individuals making their first foray into altcoin pumping after becoming bored of BTC's stagnation. They must of thought it would be like penny stocks

Now we have a small group of assorted bagholders- many of whom attempted to conjure up fanatical levels of support with their orchestrated pump on monero, a unseen level of hubris on these forums all led by a pied piper playing an irreistible tune of $$ :

https://i.imgur.com/1olJtbO.png
https://i.imgur.com/xhKa3pn.png

XMR looks really strong in the market. I've been accumulating the past 5 days and seen with my own eyes the buy support grow from 60 to 300+ btc. Meanwhile the price is only up less than 50% from the bottom and still less than the average over time.

It is easy to see a continued uptrend from here.

Only about 1.5 million bitcoins in speculative (fiat-denominated) hands now. All the rest are owned by the likes of me, I am not selling any bitcoins below the long term realistic value of $300k/BTC

My greatest contribution to bitcoin economy was the calculation that 1 Bitcoin is worth $300,000 U.S. Dollars

The most egregious prediction I actually have made, is the belief that Bitcoin would reach $300,000 by the end of 2013. Because I believed this myself, I went nearly all-in when the price was $100, and sold a few months later to buy a castle and other nice things. So I was wrong with the number but right on the timing.

I hope that Monero would be the coin that speedily embraces this understanding, but if I am wrong, I am ready to move on, like I have done with stocks, silver and bitcoin

http://barnapkinmemoirs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/picard-facepalm.jpg


XMR holders have now had the briefest of splashes with cold water, becoming bagholders for just a couple of months max has already shocked them to the core. Back to reality realising they actually are facing a btc denominated loss now in their experiments,  (not like anyone told them they will likely be bagholders at least temporarily or pointed out the catastrophic flaws with XMR's structure) the biggest holders try their hands at controlling monetary policy

of course this comes AFTER already securing their privileged positions when emission was steeper- they finally come to understand the inflation given the current climate is not tolerable, as many had already said Build your coin on a solid foundation from day one, don't stick bandaids on i.

Nevertheless the prospect of enduring a cold winter at malla with no electricity is not an attractive one. So now is the time to get that rouge lipstick out and start applying it all around this grotesque hambeast they are stuck with.

As to the theory Aminorex and co sold off, I don't beleive that for a second. He is firm in his belief that XMR has  "already solidified it's position as the number 2 coin next to BTC", "it's natural successor" "the only contender for global dark market liquidity niche".

The price is low, so that's prime opportunity for him and his SVP contacts at two sigma, along with his network of prop desk traders across the world, to scoop up tons of cheap coins  (Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long ™ as some would say)

He even was advocating quitting his job if he didn't get paid in XMR, I'm sure he wouldn't sell, he would probably just take a few shots of whiskey and some amphetamine- whip out his black book and start making some phone cools to bigwigs. We would shortly be back on the road to da moon because this is only a temporary pitstop back on earth, us monero supporters all know that monero is the only worthwile alt who's success is inevtiable, right guys?
...guys?


XMR has a chance of success if you leave it the way it is. You will NEVER hear the end of the instamine accusations if you change the core parameters at this stage. You can never market it as a truly fair or legitimate option. Do not let shortsighted fears take over now when they never factored in to your buy-in's before you realised it wasn't going to be plain sailing. You need to ride the storm out and demonstrate you are confident in your decisions because the confidence was shining through before.

I'm finally about to start cutting my losses on XMR now, I'll attempt to recoup on other projects.

So long and thanks for all the buy in tips.
https://i.imgur.com/0GzRzwK.png

[BanditryAndLoot]

'm finally about to start cutting my losses on XMR now, I'll attempt to recoup on other projects.

If it means we're not gonna have babbys that can't do anything but troll every single time they've shat their diapers .. I'm okay with that.

Most of it was just you crying about Risto not buying a different CN coin.

How do you expect anyone to comment on that?

Most of it sounds like bait.

Besides, I thought nobody cared about Monero?

Why you still trollin?

[Brilliantrocket]

He was wrong, who cares? People are wrong all the time, you're posting this like it's some massive revelation.

[baghodler]

He was wrong, who cares? People are wrong all the time, you're posting this like it's some massive revelation.

if Mark Karpeles comes on the forum and says he has created a brand new exchange running would you like to deposit some funds?.
 
What is your answer?

your answer is no only because you have been educate. You now realise not to go near anything he touches- It's like touching a hot flame, getting burned and realising it's not a smart idea.

The same story with the lies spouted by rpietila, wolong, blackhand etc. These pumpers with insane claims need to be exposed.

It's not about being wrong, it's about being purposefully deceptive time and time again. About educating people not to get suckered in by pump masters who will always promise you the world and pull the rug out from underneath you...

[Brilliantrocket]

He was wrong, who cares? People are wrong all the time, you're posting this like it's some massive revelation.

if Mark Karpeles comes on the forum and says he has created a brand new exchange running would you like to deposit some funds?.
 
What is your answer?

your answer is no only because you have been educate. You now realise not to go near anything he touches- It's like touching a hot flame, getting burned and realising it's not a smart idea.

The same story with the lies spouted by rpietila, wolong, blackhand etc. These pumpers with insane claims need to be exposed.

It's not about being wrong, it's about being purposefully deceptive time and time again. About educating people not to get suckered in by pump masters who will always promise you the world and pull the rug out from underneath you...

A futile effort, in my opinion. People will always be sucked in by pump masters because people, by their very nature, are stupid. They want to believe, and if someone comes along and makes some lofty promises, they will believe. Time and time again. It's been happening since time immemorial, and will continue until we no longer are, or fundamentally change what we are.

[BanditryAndLoot]

He was wrong, who cares? People are wrong all the time, you're posting this like it's some massive revelation.

if Mark Karpeles comes on the forum and says he has created a brand new exchange running would you like to deposit some funds?.
 
What is your answer?

your answer is no only because you have been educate. You now realise not to go near anything he touches- It's like touching a hot flame, getting burned and realising it's not a smart idea.

The same story with the lies spouted by rpietila, wolong, blackhand etc. These pumpers with insane claims need to be exposed.

It's not about being wrong, it's about being purposefully deceptive time and time again. About educating people not to get suckered in by pump masters who will always promise you the world and pull the rug out from underneath you...

So rpietila = mark karpeles?

You never cease to make me laugh.

rpietila and wolong are fucking blips on the map standing next to karpeles.

Karpeles ran an exchange, people handed him money. People lost 850,000 bitcoins.

Are you saying that you handed rpietila money?

It doesn't seem like it. The price is either at or well below his buy in price.

No your money went to someone else.

Someone was buying at .01. I watched the buys. I don't know if it was Risto, but they were buying in 50 btc chunks all the way up.

You think risto's the only whale in the sea? Such a small viewpoint.

It's sad.

We never even got a rug. Maybe a ball of yarn at best.

850,000 bitcoins total lost with gox.

How many Monero got lost on monero? None.

Nobody walked away with your money, or stole it without your knowledge.

Nobody stole shit from you.

If you bought something and it's worth less than before, welcome to fucking life. Have you seen the resale value on flatscreens these days? What's the resale value on cars? Or even the resale value on computer games?

The thing is, when you buy any of those three, it has a permanently depreciating resale value. It's 100% likely that that tv or car or game will be worth even less than what it was worth this year.

The same cannot be said about this currency. Nobody knows if it'll be worth 1000x or .0001x it's value right now. You knew that going into this. You can even come here and tell me it won't be worth any more next year than next. You don't fucking know and well fucking see.

If you didn't know any of this going into this, seriously consider learning a little bit about all of this.

You just wanna bitch and moan because you can't wait until there's actual people here to do some real adopting, or you're mad because someone bought something else and you feel they shouldn't have.

You're really just bitching that there's not enough people interested in alternative cryptocurrencies. So go fix it.

Nobody has lost 850000 Monero at all, so please tell me where he took them from you?

Or, maybe you're just trollin.

Real people don't act this way, so you're easy to point out.

You've got a grudge, and are trying to make it look like there's thousands of people angry with pitchforks. That's a lie, because nobody cares about Monero or Risto in the real world. It's just you. Probably, you're mad because you think someone stole your protocol.

To which I'd say again, nobody stole anything at all. We picked up more interest than you, because you guys were pieces of shit and weren't forthcoming with us, lied to us, and all-around over-elusive. That all would have been just fine if you could actually prove that you didn't premine 82% of the currency, but you can't. We were the community you were supposed to have, but you fucked up and your supporters took over.

Maybe not, maybe you're just a bored dude that likes to get people riled up. Maybe you're paid. Maybe you've got nothing at all to do with cryptocurrencies and are paid to do your job.

You see, we've heard it all before. Nobody cares anymore, besides like ten to twenty people.

The only thing that's clear: This isn't how people would act in the situation you're trying to present to us. You're a liar and a cheat, and are the only one here that is both of those things.

I've noticed you go out of your way to ignore me, time and time again, by the way.

[bitcoin_bagholder]

"You will NEVER hear the end of the instamine accusations if you change the core parameters at this stage. You can never market it as a truly fair or legitimate option."

100% agree with this.

[tacotime]

ehm. i don't usually respond to troll posts, but it's saturday, so why not?

i still have all my xmr.

i have stated before i'll sell all mine if there's some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve. that's still the way i feel. i am in support of fixing subsidy at 0.1 XMR when we reach it, to cause small amounts of inflation that help secure the chain, but that's it.

in the future, 2-3 years from now, if people want to come back and tell me that xmr was a premine, that they never had a chance to get in on it when it was cheap, direct them to this post and what the chart looked like at this time. xmr was here to buy, it was cheap, the tech is in the CN paper, we implemented the first database for CN core (not a page file), we published the first paper on a number of privacy issues, and i'm working hard to ensure a roll out of new privacy features in the near future. we've battled off several serious attacks and drama, and we've done it on our own dime. we never had a premine, we never had an instamine, we never had a tax.

i personally never sat around pumping the coin, etc etc etc. the tech behind it is good, so i always had faith. we reimplemented the ring sig algo and studied it intensely and couldn't break it. ecdh is trivially secure. the bitcoin core devs spoke favourably of the ring signature technology in the their sidechains paper.

gui for the node is really an afterthought, which was why we never shoved one out quickly. look at how many bitcoin-qts are left running these days; everyone uses a safer reimplementation of the bitcoin wallet or a webwallet because running a full node using 250 GB of bandwidth a month is silly for the end user. rest assured we're working on better solutions.

there's going to be a lot of stuff happening in the near future. dev is rolling along. if you wanna dump your coins now, go for it.

[nioc]

He was wrong, who cares? People are wrong all the time, you're posting this like it's some massive revelation.

I was wrong. 

I bought 4 jars of my favorite peanut butter on sale at less than half price.  I put the bag on the hood of my car while I got my keys out.  Much to my dismay one of the jars rolled out of the bag, down the hood and when it hit the pavement it broke.  As it's not all about me I cleaned up all the broken glass.  That was over 3 Moneros worth of peanut butter.  Yes I buy good peanut butter.

[Wekkel]

I don't get all the fuzz. How can the (very normal) inflation curve of XMR be considered a major, major problem. Only because price has been grinding lower and lower and some whales showing their love by asking for a reduced inflation rate?

This tech is brand new. There is no real world adoption yet with devs honing the code on a continuing basis. Awareness is growing but the market, together with the entire altcoin market, is grinding lower.

Look, the inflating curve was known from the start. If your early adopter investment disappoints,  sell and leave or just hold and go with the program. A negative development of a few people's investment should never be a reason to fork. The current price is just what the market dictates. The loss of the early adopter is gain of the new investor. There is no 'right' price for XMR other than the market price.

The issue could be price development. Well, start contributing to things that benefit development then. Only this will bring XMR further. Just limiting coin issue only because a whale perceives it beneficial for its investment will do more damage than good. I think the devs and community understand this perfectly well.

[nioc]

ehm. i don't usually respond to troll posts, but it's saturday, so why not?

i still have all my xmr.

i have stated before i'll sell all mine if there's some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve. that's still the way i feel. i am in support of fixing subsidy at 0.1 XMR when we reach it, to cause small amounts of inflation that help secure the chain, but that's it.

in the future, 2-3 years from now, if people want to come back and tell me that xmr was a premine, that they never had a chance to get in on it when it was cheap, direct them to this post and what the chart looked like at this time. xmr was here to buy, it was cheap, the tech is in the CN paper, we implemented the first database for CN core (not a page file), we published the first paper on a number of privacy issues, and i'm working hard to ensure a roll out of new privacy features in the near future. we've battled off several serious attacks and drama, and we've done it on our own dime. we never had a premine, we never had an instamine, we never had a tax.

i personally never sat around pumping the coin, etc etc etc. the tech behind it is good, so i always had faith. we reimplemented the ring sig algo and studied it intensely and couldn't break it. ecdh is trivially secure. the bitcoin core devs spoke favourably of the ring signature technology in the their sidechains paper.

gui for the node is really an afterthought, which was why we never shoved one out quickly. look at how many bitcoin-qts are left running these days; everyone uses a safer reimplementation of the bitcoin wallet or a webwallet because running a full node using 250 GB of bandwidth a month is silly for the end user. rest assured we're working on better solutions.

there's going to be a lot of stuff happening in the near future. dev is rolling along. if you wanna dump your coins now, go for it.

TacoTime, what do you consider "some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve."?

Why do I always get hungry when I see your name?

edit:  Thank you

[oda.krell]

ehm. i don't usually respond to troll posts, but it's saturday, so why not?

i still have all my xmr.

i have stated before i'll sell all mine if there's some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve. that's still the way i feel. i am in support of fixing subsidy at 0.1 XMR when we reach it, to cause small amounts of inflation that help secure the chain, but that's it.

in the future, 2-3 years from now, if people want to come back and tell me that xmr was a premine, that they never had a chance to get in on it when it was cheap, direct them to this post and what the chart looked like at this time. xmr was here to buy, it was cheap, the tech is in the CN paper, we implemented the first database for CN core (not a page file), we published the first paper on a number of privacy issues, and i'm working hard to ensure a roll out of new privacy features in the near future. we've battled off several serious attacks and drama, and we've done it on our own dime. we never had a premine, we never had an instamine, we never had a tax.

i personally never sat around pumping the coin, etc etc etc. the tech behind it is good, so i always had faith. we reimplemented the ring sig algo and studied it intensely and couldn't break it. ecdh is trivially secure. the bitcoin core devs spoke favourably of the ring signature technology in the their sidechains paper.

gui for the node is really an afterthought, which was why we never shoved one out quickly. look at how many bitcoin-qts are left running these days; everyone uses a safer reimplementation of the bitcoin wallet or a webwallet because running a full node using 250 GB of bandwidth a month is silly for the end user. rest assured we're working on better solutions.

there's going to be a lot of stuff happening in the near future. dev is rolling along. if you wanna dump your coins now, go for it.

Whee. Let's untroll a troll's thread

Anyway, quoted for truth, future reference, and general agreement. I've been on record before in the usual Monero threads that I am in support of a carefully chosen & community supported emission adjustment of XMR to overall more resemble that of BTC, but even if we disagree on this exact point, your post (and similar ones by the other devs) are the reason why I'm staying in this little experiment with a non-trivial position, downtrend or not.

Keep up the good work, is what I'm saying here.

[tacotime]

TacoTime, what do you consider "some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve."?

suddenly slowing emission to 1/2 or 1/4. in 10 years i bet we'll have people sitting around saying bitcoin was a horrendous instamine, etc, etc. which it is as well. monero just has a faster timescale. there was a time when you could get xmr and btc cheaply, relative to what it is now. it's preprogrammed to be that way. ours is pretty fair too. at this point, cryptocurrencies aren't that new, everyone in tech knows about them, and the onus is on them to read the CN whitepaper and understand what's going on.

[Brilliantrocket]

I'm worried about the security of the network, considering only 14% will be left to emit 4 years from now. It just seems unnecessarily fast to me.

[tacotime]

I'm worried about the security of the network, considering only 14% will be left to emit 4 years from now. It just seems unnecessarily fast to me.

in 4 years there's going to be ethereum 8.0, IBM adept (ethereum fork), many other innovations we can't predict, and 293,294 Bitcoin sidechains with myriad features. perhaps a faster distribution curve will be the one thing that ends up saving xmr, because it in theory, with adoption, will cause a more rapid increase in price than these major competing currencies.

my point is, it'll succeed or it won't in the next 4 years, and it's not going to matter what the emission is at that point.

[smooth]

my point is, it'll succeed or it won't in the next 4 years, and it's not going to matter what the emission is at that point.

I'm skeptical of most of the arguments being made for a change, but this is pretty flawed logic. The emission could very much matter to whether or not it succeeds in the next four years. Yes the 4+ year emissions will likely happen after most of the success or failure of this coin does, but that doesn't mean they can't have an effect on that success or failure. It isn't as if the low emissions in 4 years are unknown or invisible. People see what is coming and may decide to go elsewhere if it looks like it is going to be unsound.

That said, I still don't see a good argument for this curve or that curve, other than not letting rewards go to zero. But other than that, I'm unconvinced that one person's preferred curve is better than another's.  If we agree that too fast and too slow are both bad, then it follows that without actually knowing what is best, any speed up or slow down could be harmful.

[eizh]

It isn't as if the low emissions in 4 years are unknown or invisible. People see what is coming and may decide to go elsewhere if it looks like it is going to be unsound.

This would be empirically validated in Bitcoin by now (supposed to last until 2100+, only 5 years old, 60% mined out). Yet most new entrants into cryptocurrency stick with Bitcoin. The ones who bother with alts are mostly within two camps (1) the overwhelming majority who feel they "missed out" and are just shooting in the dark hoping to strike gold and (2) those who see scope for technological niches, a small minority.

Who are the ones who see BTC is 60% mined out and choose something else because of that? Are you sure they're not actually a subset of (1), i.e. they choose an alt because they're hoping for higher upside and not because they are bothered by BTC's fast emission? This latter group doesn't actually care about emission on some logical/moral level; they're just speculators who operate at a farther point in the risk-reward curve.

To respond to baghodler:

XMR holders have now had the briefest of splashes with cold water, becoming bagholders for just a couple of months max has already shocked them to the core.

Yes, everyone talks about how they're going to hold for 2+ years when times are good. They promptly starts panicking on a downtrend and come up with various rationalizations for various schemes. It will pass; churn in the markets is a good thing.

[smooth]

It isn't as if the low emissions in 4 years are unknown or invisible. People see what is coming and may decide to go elsewhere if it looks like it is going to be unsound.

This would be empirically validated in Bitcoin by now (supposed to last until 2100+, only 5 years old, 60% mined out). Yet most new entrants into cryptocurrency stick with Bitcoin. The ones who bother with alts are mostly within two camps (1) the overwhelming majority who feel they "missed out" and are just shooting in the dark hoping to strike gold and (2) those who see scope for technological niches, a small minority.

Who are the ones who see BTC is 60% mined out and choose something else because of that? Are you sure they're not actually a subset of (1), i.e. they choose an alt because they're hoping for higher upside and not because they are bothered by BTC's fast emission? This latter group doesn't actually care about emission on some logical/moral level; they're just speculators who operate at a farther point in the risk-reward curve.

If you talk to non-crypto people about Bitcoin many describe it as a Ponzi scheme (which is their imprecise way of saying that if feels like early adopters are getting rich from later adopters) and feel they are too late to be an early adopter, or at least ask if it is too late. I started hearing that question for the first time last year and continue to hear it this year.

Also, when I mentioned people looking at it and thinking it is going to be unsound, that wasn't just early adopter status vs late adopter status but also whether the network is going to be secure. (I think that was the specific point to which I replied.) Bitcoin has a few decades at least before the rewards dwindle to nearly nothing, which is far enough away to ignore or at least not be too concerned about. Monero's much faster curve makes that prospect far more immediate.

EDIT: Also, let me add one point. We were talking about 4 years, and Monero won't by 60% mined in 4 years, it will be approximately 90% mined (16.5m/18.4m). At 60% Bitcoin has a level of maturity and scale today that makes it (somewhat) compelling and Monero is unlikely to achieve in one year (when we approximately hit 60%).

[ArticMine]

TacoTime, what do you consider "some crazy dramatic change to the emissions curve."?

suddenly slowing emission to 1/2 or 1/4. in 10 years i bet we'll have people sitting around saying bitcoin was a horrendous instamine, etc, etc. which it is as well. monero just has a faster timescale. there was a time when you could get xmr and btc cheaply, relative to what it is now. it's preprogrammed to be that way. ours is pretty fair too. at this point, cryptocurrencies aren't that new, everyone in tech knows about them, and the onus is on them to read the CN whitepaper and understand what's going on.

A sudden change in the emission rate say 1/2 or 1/4 from one block to the next would break the social contract of a smooth emission curve in Monero so I would be opposed to that. One the other a gradual change in the emission rate over say a 90 day period would not and I would support it. The critical difference is that in the latter case the market is given the proper time to adjust, while in the former case it is not. I made my argument here: https://forum.monero.cc/19/voting/90/d-v-round-2-xmr-emission-and-related-issues?page=&noscroll=1#post-385

[Hueristic]

Blah Blah Blah

FIXED