rpietila Altcoin Observer

[rpietila]

XMR looks really strong in the market. I've been accumulating the past 5 days and seen with my own eyes the buy support grow from 60 to 300+ btc. Meanwhile the price is only up less than 50% from the bottom and still less than the average over time.

It is easy to see a continued uptrend from here. Interesting point will be to see whether it goes over 0.010, which was the top of the previous wave.

(Do not mistake market comments with fundamental analysis.)

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[surfer43]

I'm unsure if I made the right choice in putting 25% of my trade towards BBR instead of putting it all in XMR.

I'm pretty confident that I'll be able to make a profit on the XMR, but I'm also making a big assumption that BBR is going to follow XMR like it did before.

Do people still feel that BBR is heavily correlated with XMR? It has not stayed at a consistent 25% like it was a little while ago. I don't know if that signals a change or not. The fact that the market has let it trade at a deeper discount might indicate something, but I'm not sure.

Do you this BBR will overtake the 25% rate for XMR really?

If not you're wasting upside.

I'm not against investing in other Cryptonotes. But why would BBR keep 25% pace with XMR?

Yes, I think it can get to 50% rate of XMR or more. The only reason it's so low right now is because there aren't public GPU miners and the private ones have a significant advantage. So a lot of miners are dumping at any price.

Also, look at the sell side of the depth chart.

[Its About Sharing]

XMR looks really strong in the market. I've been accumulating the past 5 days and seen with my own eyes the buy support grow from 60 to 300+ btc. Meanwhile the price is only up less than 50% from the bottom and still less than the average over time.

It is easy to see a continued uptrend from here. Interesting point will be to see whether it goes over 0.010, which was the top of the previous wave.

(Do not mistake market comments with fundamental analysis.)

Was just looking at the market depth on both Mintpal and Poloniex, the depth on the buy side looks DEEP. I think 50 BTC buys or so at around .003 or so on both exchanges (with the price at .0032-.0034).
The sell side is VERY thin. We do look poised for a (continued) move up, as long as there isn't a large dump.
https://www.mintpal.com/market/XMR/BTC#
https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

[AlexGR]

So Evan is the central banker here I guess ?

He couldnt implement Masternode payments so now decides to tax miners 20% ?

Tax miners?

If you use your mined DRKs for MNs you get 20% "interest".

If you use your mined DRKs for MNs you reduce the danger of having them on exchanges, which can be risky for exposing large number of coins to hackers (can lead to price implosion / dumping hacked coins).

If you use your mined DRKs for MNs you actually provide a useful service to the network.

If mining becomes "unprofitable" and the hashrate drops, block reward goes up to 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - up to 25 DRKs per block.

[rpietila]

You mean a  l a r g e  dump, then

[dnaleor]

XMR looks really strong in the market. I've been accumulating the past 5 days and seen with my own eyes the buy support grow from 60 to 300+ btc. Meanwhile the price is only up less than 50% from the bottom and still less than the average over time.

It is easy to see a continued uptrend from here. Interesting point will be to see whether it goes over 0.010, which was the top of the previous wave.

(Do not mistake market comments with fundamental analysis.)

I also think this IS a trend reversal. Hopefully we see slow growth now.
The fibonacci retracements are located at
2.315 + (10-2.315)*x

x = 78.6% => 8.355 mBTC
x = 61.8% => 7.064 mBTC
x = 50.0% => 6.158 mBTC
x = 38.2% => 5.251 mBTC
x = 23.6% => 4.129 mBTC

If we break 4.129 soon, we COULD enter bubble mode again. According the trend, this could happen on approximately july 20.
It could be sooner, because the XMR/BTC charts are erratic sometimes

[smooth]

Yes, I think it can get to 50% rate of XMR or more. The only reason it's so low right now is because there aren't public GPU miners and the private ones have a significant advantage. So a lot of miners are dumping at any price.

Also, look at the sell side of the depth chart.

As I've (and dga has and rptietila somewhat has) explained before, the primary determinant of price (I'll walk back a bit from "sole determinant" out of respect for aminorex who disagrees with the extreme version of this formulation and has thought a lot about the issue) is investment demand.

In order for BBR or any coin with a similar structure of difficulty adjustment to rise significantly, there has to be an increase in demand for holding the coin. That is a combination of holding for investment and holding for use. Since the coin is at present totally useless outside speculation, that demand has to be investment demand.

What versions of what miners are released to whom is unlikely to significantly change demand. I can't say that it definitely won't, but in reality most speculative demand is going to be based on long- and short-term prospects for development of the coin into something useful, not who mines or how they mine. Mining itself (as long as there is sufficient mining to secure the network) is unimportant.

[smooth]

is implemented in 2 weeks.

So vaporware. Let's take up the discussion again when it (or whatever other vaporware) is implemented and demonstrated to work in the field.

[smooth]

if Anonymint's proposal becomes a standard.

Another discussion best deferred until it has even the remotest trace of a connection to reality.

[villabacho]

The volume on BBR is increasing and XMR is starting to up again. This is reminding me of the last XMR run up.

Anyone expecting(or not) XMR to have another run up soon? Or are we going to be waiting a while for a news hit or some other catalyst?

News are trickling.. of course it's going up now!

More interesting is, whether it makes a higher high (>0.010) indicating a rising trend, or just a higher low (which it did), indicating a stabilization somewhere between 0.004-0.008 below the ATH of yore.

Anyone knows the number of XMR holders?? Could be interesting..

I'm wondering if reaching the same high as last time (=0.010)  wouldn't already indicate a rising trend, because there are much more coins in circulation now. So if we reach 0.010 again, much more capital will have flown into XMR than was the case at the time of the last high.

Would be interested to hear your opinions on that view.

[saddambitcoin]

i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero

obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.

[smooth]

I'm wondering if reaching the same high as last time (=0.010)  wouldn't already indicate a rising trend, because there are much more coins in circulation now. So if we reach 0.010 again, much more capital will have flown into XMR than was the case at the time of the last high.

Would be interested to hear your opinions on that view.

I would consider it a weak indication in support of your premise, since it would imply that technicals are supporting movement in the same direction as fundamentals.

Fundamentally it is more meaningful to look at the full-emitted market cap. The reason being that the market consensus future price is equal to the current price (approximately -- there might be a slight divergence due to different carrying costs, but that should be quite small). So the best neutral (meaning without making a bet against the market) estimate of future market cap is future coins outstanding times current price.

[dnaleor]

I'm wondering if reaching the same high as last time (=0.010)  wouldn't already indicate a rising trend, because there are much more coins in circulation now. So if we reach 0.010 again, much more capital will have flown into XMR than was the case at the time of the last high.

Would be interested to hear your opinions on that view.

I would consider it a weak indication in support of your premise, since it would imply that technicals are supporting movement in the same direction as fundamentals.

Fundamentally it is more meaningful to look at the full-emitted market cap. The reason being that the market consensus future price is equal to the current price (approximately -- there might be a slight divergence due to different carrying costs, but that should be quite small). So the best neutral (meaning without making a bet against the market) estimate of future market cap is future coins outstanding times current price.

I agree with this, except in cases where there is a very slow mining distribution curve (>50 years to reach 90% for example)
In that case, there IS in fact a limitation that will be felt and this could push the exchange rate up.
In the case of monero, we will have 90% in a relatively short period of time. this period will be of the same order as the adoption curve... I guess this is the key. The adoption curve and the mining distribution need to be along the same rate to have a stable exchange rate during the adoption period.


edit: makes me wonder... maybe new altcoins could integrate the logistic curve with a 5-10 years curve to reach 90% ??

[rpietila]

i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero

obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.

Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.

[dnaleor]

i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero

obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.

Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.

50/50 is indeed crazy for such a volatile asset!

i'm already at 80/20 at the moment and feeling a little nervous when the exchange rate goes down...
But I hope monero will make me some additional BTC, next to a nice long term XMR stash

(But... All my monero are pure profit. I got my investment cashed out in BTC so I don't really worry

[nioc]

XMR looks really strong in the market. I've been accumulating the past 5 days and seen with my own eyes the buy support grow from 60 to 300+ btc. Meanwhile the price is only up less than 50% from the bottom and still less than the average over time.

It is easy to see a continued uptrend from here. Interesting point will be to see whether it goes over 0.010, which was the top of the previous wave.

(Do not mistake market comments with fundamental analysis.)

Was just looking at the market depth on both Mintpal and Poloniex, the depth on the buy side looks DEEP. I think 50 BTC buys or so at around .003 or so on both exchanges (with the price at .0032-.0034).
The sell side is VERY thin. We do look poised for a (continued) move up, as long as there isn't a large dump.
https://www.mintpal.com/market/XMR/BTC#
https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

The sell side is always thin.

When the price is going up it's interesting to watch the +0.000001 and +0.000011 (most likely) bots on Poloniex.

[Cablez]

i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero

obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.

Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.

I am sorry if this seems dumb but when one says this is it on a USD basis or just coin for coin?

[nioc]

i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero

obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.

Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.

I am sorry if this seems dumb but when one says this is it on a USD basis or just coin for coin?

From rpietila"s reply as well as a previous one I take it to mean coin for coin.  But most of us don't have the luxury of having that many coins.  I am 75/25 because I heard voices in my head and although my buy timing was good for btc it has sucked for XMR, at least in the short term.  Those voices have rarely steered me wrong.

[smooth]

i'm about to join the 50/50 club = 50% BTC 50% Monero

obviously i'm not a superwhale but its significant to me.

Please be adviced that 99/1 is the prudent allocation.

I am sorry if this seems dumb but when one says this is it on a USD basis or just coin for coin?

From rpietila"s reply as well as a previous one I take it to mean coin for coin.  But most of us don't have the luxury of having that many coins.  I am 75/25 because I heard voices in my head and although my buy timing was good for btc it has sucked for XMR, at least in the short term.  Those voices have rarely steered me wrong.

Truth is that it really depends on your outlook. 99/1 is more weighted toward XMR than market neutral so it is a bit of a bet on XMR, but if you feel more strongly that XMR will outperform BTC then 75/25 is justifiable. It's just a bolder and likely riskier bet, but not an irrational one.

[aminorex]

I hold 99 xmr per btc at the moment.

I personally think that the hash rate and the price have to converge.  I know this is an unpopular view, and I understand why it is unpopular, so please don't feel obligated to explain it to me.   I am not confident that I have articulated the (very simple) reasoning which compells me:

XMR is presently the best yeilding coin to mine with a GPU.  Thus, all the obsolete litecoin mining farms should be dumping coins as fast as they can be mined.  This drives up hash rate until difficulty rises and price drops from the dumping.

When XMR is no longer the best yielding coin to mine with a GPU, these miners will move along to another coin, and the remaining miners will not be the economically efficient rational actors -- they will hold in larger proportions.  Price will rise because supply is reduced.  Hash rates will stabilize (or collapse, ending in the death of the coin, if only there were not a cult following -- but there is, so it won't). 

As long as this cycle takes the price/difficulty to higher levels on average iterations, the economy will grow, regardless of mercantile applications.  When the cult-miner cycle burns enough fiat, and dispersion levels are adequate, merchants will be attracted to the XMR market.  At that point growth is self-sustanining, as long as the coin is fit for use.

I think stabilization requires that price-drop * difficulty-rise  = XMR-mining-yield / Second-best-mining-yield, in this case, about 40%.  I.e. price * difficulty should approach 1.8e6 XMR*hash.

At this time that is the only prediction I am willing to make about XMR in the near term.  Feel free to call me on it.