Augur - a decentralized prediction market platform

[cryptoadoption15]

We just made this announcement and wanted to share it here.

We've now gotten all augur contracts on the live Ethereum testnet. All function calls have been tested (albeit naively, with more testing ongoing) and confirmed working. Our code is now open source, lots of documentation & a UI will be coming soon.

https://github.com/AugurProject/Augur-core

This is very interesting. Please keep us posted on any updates

[1715293874]

1715293874

[DecentralizeTonySwish]

This is Tony from the Augur team and I wanted to share our latest blog posts with the community as I feel they will be of interest, one is about Combinatorial Prediction Markets and the other is a guest post by Augur Advisor and Wharton Researcher, Dr. Abe Othman on Automated Market Makers.

In addition, I have been on BitcoinTalk before but feel free to follow myself on Twitter http://twitter.com/tonyswish or check out my podcast (Episode 19 with Augur Lead Dev. Joey Krug is recommended) at decentralize.fm.

Why Combinatorial Prediction Markets are Useful by Augur Lead Dev. Joey Krug - http://www.augur.net/blog/why-combinatorial-prediction-markets-are-useful

What is an Automated Market Maker? by Dr. Abe Othman - http://www.augur.net/blog/what-is-an-automated-market-maker

For the latest updates about the project, I want to also share a few links here as we want to make sure BitcoinTalk members can follow what we are doing in the easiest manner possible:

Augur Blog - http://www.augur.net/#blog
Augur on Twitter - http://twitter.com/AugurProject
Augur on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/augurproject
Augur on GitHub - https://github.com/AugurProject

[DecentralizeTonySwish]

In addition to my earlier post, we released a video that explains Augur in a simplified and easy to understand manner. My good friend (and Bitcoin fan) Country singer Shooter Jennings was nice enough to narrate the video, which I believe came out great.

This is something I wish that had it's own thread, if you are interested in the project please share this with anyone who you think would share interest, it would be greatly appreciated.

Check out my short blog post that accompanied the video http://www.augur.net/blog/how-augur-works-video.

Direct link to the video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo

[Netnox]

What is the token called for augurs crowdsale, reputation? What can you do with these token and how many will there be out there?

[DecentralizeTonySwish]

We are projecting the crowdsale to begin two weeks after the Ethereum Frontier release as of now, stay tuned to Augur.net and follow our Twitter feed www.twitter.com/augurproject for up date information on this.

The token will be used for people to report on event outcomes within the system. Essentially REP is the first decentralized oracle solution ever implemented. It allows holders to report on the outcome of events in Augur’s prediction markets, and rewards them for both honesty and regular reporting, with half of all trading fees on the platform.

In the coming weeks we will be releasing a short video and blog post that goes into more detail so keep an eye out on Augur.net.

[augurproject]

Checkout our alpha too at http://www.augur.net/blog/the-augur-alpha-is-now-available-to-download

[-Greed-]

@augurproject
The demo looks incredible! Can you tell me in brief how decision logics work?

[augurproject]

@augurproject
The demo looks incredible! Can you tell me in brief how decision logistics work?

Sure, so basically:

1) Someone creates a market on an event and adds some initial liquidity to that market to kick it off
2) People buy and sell both outcomes, so for a question like "Will Hillary Clinton win the 2016 US Presidential election?" you can buy yes or no shares
3) You can sell your shares at any time
4) Or, if you think you chose correctly, you can hold onto them until after the event occurs
5) If you're right you'll end up getting $1/share that you bought - payouts are determined based off our oracle system explained here: http://www.augur.net/blog/what-is-reputation

[-Greed-]

@augurproject
The demo looks incredible! Can you tell me in brief how decision logistics work?

Sure, so basically:

1) Someone creates a market on an event and adds some initial liquidity to that market to kick it off
2) People buy and sell both outcomes, so for a question like "Will Hillary Clinton win the 2016 US Presidential election?" you can buy yes or no shares
3) You can sell your shares at any time
4) Or, if you think you chose correctly, you can hold onto them until after the event occurs
5) If you're right you'll end up getting $1/share that you bought - payouts are determined based off our oracle system explained here: http://www.augur.net/blog/what-is-reputation

So the outcome is determined by voting (REP). First I thought it was a weak point in the app but there is a nice anti-cheating system built-in.

[cryptoadoption15]

How is the project progressing?

[superresistant]

How is the project progressing?

Live demo available.
http://demo.augur.net/

[statdude]

Sweet!

What other prediction markets have existed in BTC? I know a few have.

[BTCBinary]

This is much like binary options, but even better.
I like the ideia! But I honestly don't understand how a lot of people can make a more accurate forecast than experts...

[-Greed-]

Sweet!

What other prediction markets have existed in BTC? I know a few have.

Haven't yet. But there is Truthcoin in development too.

[TRilon]

You can buy it on the exchange?

[DecentralizeTonySwish]

Wanted to just give everyone here an update of what's going on with Augur.

On Monday, August 17th we are starting our Reputation Token crowdsale at 12PM EST. We meticulously went over the options for token distribution methods and although a crowdsale was not exactly our favorite choice, it was the one necessary as the tokens need to have value in order for our decentralized oracle system to work. We wrote a a blog post going into a bit more detail about why we are using a crowdsale, I would encourage everyone to check it out http://www.augur.net/blog/why-a-crowdsale-is-necessary-for-augur-to-work-some-updates.

For those who want to participate in the crowdsale, the official website is http://sale.augur.net and it is currently up. Additionally, for instructions on how to participate and other important information, we have put all of the directions and important information up here http://www.augur.net/blog/the-augur-crowdsale.

In the crowdsale page above, we detail our prospective timeline for further Augur development, I would encourage everyone to check that out as well. Wanted to include image that highlights the important details for the crowdsale with everyone. Feel free to share this image and any information about what we are doing as it's greatly appreciated.

https://i.imgur.com/gbKWB4V.png

[doof]

I really want to see this project take off.  However, I spent a good afternoon trying to get the software to work on Linux or Windows, in the end i gave up.

[Xaltotun]

I really want to see this project take off.  However, I spent a good afternoon trying to get the software to work on Linux or Windows, in the end i gave up.

I'm interested in this project as well and still struggling with getting a valid Ethereum address. But it appears you can create an address at their site when you login. I just may do that.

[jdebunt]

Well this token sale has taken off to the races.... 2,000 BTC in 10 hours...sheesh.

[TRilon]

The project is interested, in on the first day bought a little of shares