Losing faith

[picolo]

Unfortunately, anybody who bought in above 7 or 8 hundred will forever be victim to one of histories biggest accidental trolls. Nothing will ever change that

700$ is twice the current price but we can get there in a short rally. The real potential is 10k$ or more within years.

Silly old man missed the boat so he tries to sell a book. Sad. He should find Jesus.

He thinks he missed the boat but he didn't since there is the potential of a 10,000profit

I stand corrected. I actually meant to say he thinks he missed the boat.

Yes we agree, he didn't missed anything

[Coinshot]

These types of negative sentiment shows that the bottom is in. It may go lower some more but we are more likely to see more upwards movement than downwards.

[ParabellumLite]

One thing nobody's mentioned in this thread yet -- a possible huge wild card in all of it -- regarding bitcoin's future value and the possibility of at least one more 10X spike happening someday soon, is the entry of Wall Street and large institutional investor money into this space.

So far, because bitcoin is not any kind of "regulated" asset or investment vehicle, the big-money players have been prohibited (by LAW) from getting into it, in any significant capacity.  (Note this doesn't mean they haven't been fooling around, maybe even "meddling" with it, in some "unofficial" or background, off-books, covert sort of way... which I totally believe is possible or even VERY likely).

The fact that Silicon Valley VC money has been pouring into the space, makes the entire "sales pitch" for these guys more and more palatable to their clients, vis-a-vis the idea that future USE of bitcoin & blockchain tech will be expanding into more & much EASIER TO USE products and services.

This, IMHO, is a fairly slow incremental process that's been going on all during the last year.

Ever since the Gox crash we've had almost ALL only GOOD news, all year!  Yet the BTC price has gone down, even while every other metric of measuring bitcoin (transactions, hash rate, wallets, difficulty, etc) has continued exponentially UP.

Bottom Line: a "story" is being developed here, for these big-money boyz, which could give these guys the wherewithal that they'll need to *finally* get into bitcoin in a big way.

IF/WHEN that happens... billions of $$$ pouring into the space, there is no other possible price reaction due to the FIXED SUPPLY of existing bitcoins than UP UP UP.

If that doesn't happen?  Well, then, yeah maybe we could remain *stuck* around $500 per BTC forever, of course, or we could even possibly see the entire "experiment" ultimately fail, and BTC price may then go to sub-$100 again.

But, ask yourself this: does anyone you know who's started to use bitcoin ever gone back to NOT using it, at all?

There are very few users already, of course: out of 100 people you ask on the street if they use bitcoin you'd be lucky to probably find ONE actual user.  But if you put 100 bitcoin users into a room and ask how many of 'em are NOT using it any more at all... I think the number there would be zero or very, very low.

This, alone, means adoption & use is still increasing... despite the price dropping.

And a growing market is NEVER something that Wall Street or Silicon Valley *EVER* leaves alone for very long.

Tell me, how much did you buy (recently) and at what price? I have carefully read all you tried to say here, but to come up with the idea that 2014 so far is a positive year after the Mt. Gox downfall really is delusional. It is not, nor is the argument that 'the big players' are just waiting to step in or moreover, that this is inevitable. Bitcoin can simply die due to altcoin competition in the next 12 months (as in, losing it's n1 place and slowly grinding down to 1) and then there's of course the issue if governments will actually allow Bitcoin to exist in the long run.

In each case wake up, and smell the coffee. The moon is not happening.

Choosing to ignore continual increases in adoption and venture capital reveals a hidden agenda.  Thanks for your entirely one-sided post but thankfully most people on these boards are too smart to be affected by comments like that

I have noticed no such increase in adoption in my personal surroundings. Venture capital invests remain present, but it isn't called venture capital for nothing. The chance that the entire ediface might crumble is very real, if not much more likely than that Bitcoin will ever become a major success. For now, Bitcoin in the minds of the people that have actually even heard of it (few that is) is being identified with fraud, theft and shady business in general. It is going to take more than the average rant about 'ever increasing adoption', and that 'big money is coming'.

Bitcoin has been in a bear market since the China crash of last year and will probably remain in a bear market for quite a while longer. The failed rally (the one that lasted a few days) has thoroughly reaffirmed market sentiment as it exists now. Expect us to go down much further than this, maybe already before the end of 2014. And besides: what people do is their own concern. I simply like to point it out when they've lost all connection to reality regarding Bitcoin. Unfortunately, quite a few people here suffer from the same illness. They have repeated their bullshit so often that they actually started to believe it.

[bitebits]

I am a big proponent of the idea of collecting all the trolls and losing faith complainy pants into this one single topic. Thanks OP!

[KeyJockey]

I have noticed no such increase in adoption in my personal surroundings.

LOL... oh, okay then, you're right! OMG how could I have been so stupid?  

Of course, your own personal observations -- constituting a tiny, nay, miniscule, microscopic, beyond statistically insignificant sample size of actual data, MUST be more valuable and *correct* in the face of the massive irrefutable data evidence that's easily seen on the blockchain.info site's CHARTS alone.  Wow, man!  You're brilliant!  LOL.  Not.

These types of negative sentiment shows that the bottom is in.

Heh, you beat me to it with this post.  

I was gonna say the mere existence of this thread and it's several strident nay-saying posters = strongest evidence I've seen yet that "capitulation" is here.  

P.S. {Edit} Just for a bit more long-term viewpoint, i.e. larger data-sample size again, instead of looking at just the last year's BTC price alone here's a reminder of the log-scale BTC price from the very beginning, 4+ years...

Looks like a pretty good long-term investment, doesn't it?  Anyone see any real permanent "crash" in there anywhere? 

Yeah, no, didn't think so... LOL   

[ParabellumLite]

I have noticed no such increase in adoption in my personal surroundings.

LOL... oh, okay then, you're right! OMG how could I have been so stupid?  

Of course, your own personal observations -- constituting a tiny, nay, miniscule, microscopic, beyond statistically insignificant sample size of actual data, MUST be more valuable and *correct* in the face of the massive irrefutable data evidence that's easily seen on the blockchain.info site's CHARTS alone.  Wow, man!  You're brilliant!  LOL.  Not.

These types of negative sentiment shows that the bottom is in.

Heh, you beat me to it with this post.  

I was gonna say the mere existence of this thread and it's several strident nay-saying posters = strongest evidence I've seen yet that "capitulation" is here.  

P.S. {Edit} Just for a bit more long-term viewpoint, i.e. larger data-sample size again, instead of looking at just the last year's BTC price alone here's a reminder of the log-scale BTC price from the very beginning, 4+ years...

Looks like a pretty good long-term investment, doesn't it?  Anyone see any real permanent "crash" in there anywhere? 

Yeah, no, didn't think so... LOL   

Indeed, because it is a rule of nature that the past is a guarantee for the future right? In other words: Bitcoin grew tremendously in the past, so it MUST keep on growing in the future. If this really is the cornerstone of your belief in Bitcoin, or any stock in that regard that fits this profile, then you will be in for a sobering surprise at some point.

About my earlier comment about personal surroundings: this including what I pick up in the media over here (Western Europe), and Bitcoin just is not a topic in mainstream media, nor do I ever hear people talking about on the (financial) news. I don't read about it in newspapers, nor do I really read about it on sites not dedicated to Bitcoin. It is not unreasonable to say that Bitcoin is not alive under the people and the single time the mainstream media divert their attention towards it, it is because something bad happened again.

[abs350]

Oh god. Pleeeeeasseee. This thread is full of the typical bull market sentiments.

"Oh, wall st isn't here yet"

"The big money is coming"

bla bla bla.

Hey!!! The value of bitcoin depends only on what other people think, not on any rational figure. Any rational intrinsic value is impossible to come up with. There is no way you can justify a long term investment in bitcoin, unless it's in a really small (as a % of your net worth) amount.

High risk, high reward! The value of bitcoin will fluctuate. Bull market arguments are bullshit!!!!!! Bear market arguments are bullshit!! Period!

If you want wealth stability and insurance, and a pleasant, relaxing worry-free existence, buy gold.

If you want high stakes, high volality, high reward and high stress buy bitcoin.

Ok probably Im a few months / years short of saying that, but clearly the value of bitcoin will continue to fluctuate wildly in both directions. In the words of the venerable, the master, the legend, our savior that is Alan Greenspan: “It has to have intrinsic value. You have to really stretch your imagination to infer what the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is. ”

[Biodom]

“It has to have intrinsic value. You have to really stretch your imagination to infer what the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is. ”

It is such a nonsensical statement. What is the intrinsic value of internet www or TCP/IP?
The ability to send money or other value eventually anywhere anytime for a small fee and have it confirmed in ~10 min has to be worth something.

[johnyj]

It is human nature that the exchange rate can not sustain such a huge rise in such a short timee: Human are getting used to single or double digit percent increase in investment return. A large increase in price will scare most of the prudent investors and they will just wait for a better chance. And the high exchange rate make lots of early adopters to cash out their coin

More important, the user base and real world usage are expanding, but at a pace of 3-4x per year, that can not support a price increase of 100x in two years, so it will take some time until they find a balance

At the same time, mining hash power has expanded dramatically, but that mostly come from the technology shift, not from a cost perspective. To sustain an exchange rate increase of 100x, there should be 100x more cost spent on mining, that is not the case right now, most of the miners have so far increased their cost by one magnitude averagely

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Unfortunately, anybody who bought in above 7 or 8 hundred will forever be victim to one of histories biggest accidental trolls. Nothing will ever change that

700$ is twice the current price but we can get there in a short rally. The real potential is 10k$ or more within years.

Silly old man missed the boat so he tries to sell a book. Sad. He should find Jesus.

He thinks he missed the boat but he didn't since there is the potential of a 10,000profit

I stand corrected. I actually meant to say he thinks he missed the boat.

Yes we agree, he didn't missed anything

Some people rode gold all the way down from $1800. Is it that hard to admit that some boats can be missed? I don't think this is a stretch of imagination. Does anyone here think gold will reach all time highs again? For example

[jonald_fyookball]

I bought in at 1000 , 750 , 650 , 450 , 350 , 270 , 350 , 420 , 350

Why are we still going down?
Is bitcoin failing?

It looks like he is right..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYJdOiLqSxE

Maybe cause it's a bubble?

An "asset" with no intrinsic value???

Best to sell now before it gets to zero.

What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS.  BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure.  Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules.  Well played, IRS, well played.

I dont think so.  You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year.  Who said you need to report all conversions?  

This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses.

Depends.  If you're buying Bitcoin as an investment, this makes sense.  If you planned on spending your Bitcoin on a regular basis (using it as a currency, which is the whole point), just be prepared to report all liquidations to the IRS (even coffee).  Will they find out about small transactions?  Probably not.  Larger ones may attract their attention.  Be careful who you brag to, because the IRS is now giving cash rewards to people who report "tax cheats".  Also, if you play around on a non-US exchange like Bitstamp, you would be foolish to assume the IRS doesn't already have a list of US traders who have gone through the account verification process.  If there's one government institution you do not want to mess with, it is the IRS.

Sidenote, whether or not FATCA applies to foreign Bitcoin exchanges is still in limbo.  This will probably be resolved in the first round of Bitcoin IRS audits coming down the pipe.

its a non issue.  The IRS won't be coming after you for a cup of coffee.  trust me.
by the time bitcoin is widely adopted there will be user friendly apps to help track this
stuff...I'm sure some are being developed now and may even already exist.

[traderCJ]

its a non issue.  The IRS won't be coming after you for a cup of coffee.  trust me.
by the time bitcoin is widely adopted there will be user friendly apps to help track this
stuff...I'm sure some are being developed now and may even already exist.

It most certainly is an issue.

I never said they'd come after you for a cup of coffee.  That's a strawman.  They sure as hell will come after you for any large purchases like real estate or vehicles.  That's really not the point, though.  By the letter of the law, all Bitcoin transactions must be reported to the IRS, if you're a U.S. citizen.  Think about it.  A currency should not require an app to remain in compliance with tax code.  What you're failing to realize is that by that stroke of the pen, the IRS has relegated Bitcoin to be something other than a currency in the U.S.  In my opinion, this is the first thing that needs to be changed.  I doubt it will, ever.  It was a purely deliberate move to force regular users of Bitcoin to either throttle back on their Bitcoin use in order to remain compliant with tax code, or simply skirt the law.  Either way, the statists win.

[jonald_fyookball]

its a non issue.  The IRS won't be coming after you for a cup of coffee.  trust me.
by the time bitcoin is widely adopted there will be user friendly apps to help track this
stuff...I'm sure some are being developed now and may even already exist.

It most certainly is an issue.

I never said they'd come after you for a cup of coffee.  That's a strawman.  They sure as hell will come after you for any large purchases like real estate or vehicles.  That's really not the point, though.  By the letter of the law, all Bitcoin transactions must be reported to the IRS, if you're a U.S. citizen.  Think about it.  A currency should not require an app to remain in compliance with tax code.  What you're failing to realize is that by that stroke of the pen, the IRS has relegated Bitcoin to be something other than a currency in the U.S.  In my opinion, this is the first thing that needs to be changed.  I doubt it will, ever.  It was a purely deliberate move to force regular users of Bitcoin to either throttle back on their Bitcoin use in order to remain compliant with tax code, or simply skirt the law.  Either way, the statists win.

There are pros and cons to Bitcoin being a currency vs a commodity.
Not a very empowering attitude you're expressing.  Get into the
solution, brah.

According to you, "the statists won" because we might need an app
to follow the letter of the law ?   If its an issue, we will deal with it,
work around it, whatever... its certainly not a fatal flaw.

HEY THAT RHYMES   

[tabnloz]

Ok probably Im a few months / years short of saying that, but clearly the value of bitcoin will continue to fluctuate wildly in both directions. In the words of the venerable, the master, the legend, our savior that is Alan Greenspan: “It has to have intrinsic value. You have to really stretch your imagination to infer what the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is. ”

Well trolled Sir.

Greenspan's advice during his reign was consistently wrong and he completely missed the biggest crash in decades.

What I think is that no one knows how this will turn out and so the $10k by 201X crowd are just excitable.

But, regardless of bull/bear leanings or your viewpoint on regs, if NYFDS regs are introduced it will provide a playing field for Wall St to put $$ in to.

Also, importantly in my view, it will change the media narrative. Less drugs/ML and a shift from blockchain good, bitcoin bad to S.o.V-24/7- instant-secure-convienient way to pay.

[dinofelis]

Some people rode gold all the way down from $1800. Is it that hard to admit that some boats can be missed? I don't think this is a stretch of imagination. Does anyone here think gold will reach all time highs again? For example

That ride is similar to what bitcoin did since september :-)  grossly 1/3 of the exchange rate down, if you take the 1800 versus 1200 for gold now, and the 470 (September) to 350 (now) of bitcoin.

[adaseb]

My guess is lack of innovation. Many businesses are scams or get hacked and people end up losing money.

Future not looking too bright at the moment.

[tabnloz]

Some people rode gold all the way down from $1800. Is it that hard to admit that some boats can be missed? I don't think this is a stretch of imagination. Does anyone here think gold will reach all time highs again? For example

That ride is similar to what bitcoin did since september :-)  grossly 1/3 of the exchange rate down, if you take the 1800 versus 1200 for gold now, and the 470 (September) to 350 (now) of bitcoin.

I don't think it is a blight on bitcoin or gold, more a result of money running into stocks and the USD rising.

Will gold go to ATH's? I think while there is global QE, no. The US have stopped but the BoJ has picked up the baton. When the BoJ's printing runs out of steam I think the ECB will announce more straight forward QE (Draghi's words still have the desired effect & their current method is sneaky QE).

If, however, confidence in the policy nosedives or some geo-pol events explodes, then hello Gold / Bitcoin spike.

[dinofelis]

I just do not know why some people can still make big money when prices fall.

Short selling, of course. But what we really need is better options markets so that we can still make big money when prices stay the same. I hate stability.

Binary options ?

[dinofelis]

Some people rode gold all the way down from $1800. Is it that hard to admit that some boats can be missed? I don't think this is a stretch of imagination. Does anyone here think gold will reach all time highs again? For example

That ride is similar to what bitcoin did since september :-)  grossly 1/3 of the exchange rate down, if you take the 1800 versus 1200 for gold now, and the 470 (September) to 350 (now) of bitcoin.

I don't think it is a blight on bitcoin or gold, more a result of money running into stocks and the USD rising.

The USD rising wouldn't mean so much.  After all, that would have meant all other fiats falling at the same rate, which is not strongly the case.  Since this summer, the USD won less than 10% as compared to EUR for instance and that's maybe more the EUR falling than the USD rising.

My idea is that after the "black tulips" of last year,  the bubble has been deflating for more than a year and bitcoin is coming into another regime, more mature.   I don't think huge rallies are still a possibility.  Next time there would be a jump to $1000,- in a week's time, many people who bought this year will sell to cover their losses, and nobody is going to make the same mistakes as those who bought at $800,- and so - the price cannot stay there very long.  That would result again in a similar crash as in the beginning of this year, but this time people are not going to sustain the slow decay, and will cut losses.  Nobody (contrary to those buying at $1000, or at $800 last year) is going to believe in a sustained high price so that they will panic-buy to "get on the train" anymore.  If it spikes to $1000,-, people will hold their buy orders, might give their sell orders, and will wait for the price to come down, which it then surely will !  No market manipulator can sustain a high price and cover all the losses of this year (when people sell) plus the 3600 coins a day mined, unless he's willing to spend a lot of money on that (tens or hunderds of millions of $ a week). 
The reason is simply that the market fundamentals for bitcoin cannot sustain such a high price for the moment.  The gold market share is not large enough yet, and merchant adoption is not wide enough for the moment.  I even think that the current price can only be sustained because only a small fraction of the coins are liquid at this moment (most are held), and I would guess that most merchant adoption is still in the black market.

In other words, in my opinion, bitcoin came to a sort of "market maturity" and now the price will follow bitcoin's adoption (somewhat ahead, speculatively), so all long term price evolution will be rather slow.  Up or down, depending on adoption.  $10 000.- or $100 000,- are not out of reach, but not overnight, only when the fundamentals allow it.
$1.- is also a possibility.  The assigned probabilities to those future prices makes up the current market price.

[Wekkel]

So in essence, its still a way better bet than the lottery.