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KeyJockey
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November 21, 2014, 03:45:56 PM |
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I bought in at 1000 , 750 , 650 , 450 , 350 , 270 , 350 , 420 , 350
Why are we still going down?
Is bitcoin failing?
Hey Zeurpiet... I'm in the same boat as you, as I believe probably a lot of people around here are. Anyone who heard about bitcoin (or, like me, who'd heard about it earlier but only finally began to take it seriously) only AFTER the last big run-up a year ago, is likely in the same situation. It kinda sucks, yeah, but y'know just looking at the past price charts I figured something out for myself that's helped me a lot in coping with it. Seems to me, most assets or investment vehicles that we are familiar with (stocks, etc) follow a typical long term pattern of slow, incremental increases with occasional periodic big-drop crashes. It's like most investments go: a little up, a little up, a little up, a little up... then BIG BOOM DOWN (but not below starting point), then again... a little up, a little up, a little up... etc. Bitcoin, in contrast, seems to me like it's following the exact opposite behavior. Bitcoin goes thru these incredible periodic huge but infrequent 10X-SPIKES UP... then it calms down and goes thru normal price-falling periods, like: a little down, a little down, a little down, a little down... and then, BAM!! Huge 10X Spike UP!!! Then again... a little down, a little down, a little down... etc. It's difficult to cope with this, unless & until you can SEE (and believe in) this patten. Because what this all boils down to is, unfortunately, MOST OF THE TIME the price of bitcoin on a day to day, even month to month basis, WILL USUALLY BE GOING DOWN. As the price is usually falling, ya just gotta get into a mindset of just buying buying buying and HOLD ON ("hodl" LOL) Just accumulate as much BTC as you can... at any prices, so that when that next big spike finally comes, you'll benefit from one of those 10-X, ten-baggers, and then you won't care about the short term BTC price day to day anymore, LOL Of course, that "next 10x spike" may never come... that's the risk we take. But I think there's a pretty good chance it will show up, one way or another, sooner or later. I myself have never yet lived thru one of these 10X events but here's hoping it'll still happen. Hodl, Hodl, Hodl...  |
- 1KeyJKVWVxdavKTetDJpQWdUaota5jbtX6 -
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Biodom
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 3934
Merit: 4453
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November 21, 2014, 03:51:13 PM |
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Maybe cause it's a bubble?  An "asset" with no intrinsic value??? Best to sell now before it gets to zero. What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS. BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure. Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules. Well played, IRS, well played. I dont think so. You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year. Who said you need to report all conversions? This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses. How do you claim losses if you don't sell your bitcoins for less than you paid for them? If you want to take losses in bitcoin this year, there is one interesting strategy that I have seen described on stock boards. 1. You buy whatever the number of bitcoins you want to keep on or before November 30 (Nov 29, 28). 2. You sell previously bought bitcoins (those that you bought before those that you buy in #1) on December 31. 3. You claim loss in BTC trade against your other capital gains for the year until ALL such gains are gone+$3000 4. You should not buy any new bitcoin until after Jan 31 so you don't have wash sales. Result: you will have newly bought bitcoins, but you reduce your tax on other capital gains if you had them (plus $3000) |
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cbeast
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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November 21, 2014, 04:04:20 PM |
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Maybe cause it's a bubble? An "asset" with no intrinsic value??? Best to sell now before it gets to zero. What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS. BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure. Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules. Well played, IRS, well played. I dont think so. You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year. Who said you need to report all conversions? This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses. How do you claim losses if you don't sell your bitcoins for less than you paid for them? If you want to take losses in bitcoin this year, there is one interesting strategy that I have seen described on stock boards. 1. You buy whatever the number of bitcoins you want to keep on or before November 30 (Nov 29, 28). 2. You sell previously bought bitcoins (those that you bought before those that you buy in #1) on December 31. 3. You claim loss in BTC trade against your other capital gains for the year until ALL such gains are gone+$3000 4. You should not buy any new bitcoin until after Jan 31 so you don't have wash sales. Result: you will have newly bought bitcoins, but you reduce your tax on other capital gains if you had them (plus $3000) Lose money just so you can claim to lose money. If everyone did that it would be musical chairs and you would be left without a chair. |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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Biodom
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3934
Merit: 4453
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November 21, 2014, 05:25:44 PM |
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Maybe cause it's a bubble? An "asset" with no intrinsic value??? Best to sell now before it gets to zero. What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS. BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure. Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules. Well played, IRS, well played. I dont think so. You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year. Who said you need to report all conversions? This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses. How do you claim losses if you don't sell your bitcoins for less than you paid for them? If you want to take losses in bitcoin this year, there is one interesting strategy that I have seen described on stock boards. 1. You buy whatever the number of bitcoins you want to keep on or before November 30 (Nov 29, 28). 2. You sell previously bought bitcoins (those that you bought before those that you buy in #1) on December 31. 3. You claim loss in BTC trade against your other capital gains for the year until ALL such gains are gone+$3000 4. You should not buy any new bitcoin until after Jan 31 so you don't have wash sales. Result: you will have newly bought bitcoins, but you reduce your tax on other capital gains if you had them (plus $3000) Lose money just so you can claim to lose money. If everyone did that it would be musical chairs and you would be left without a chair. No, the point is to get rid of extra capital gains in other assets WHILE maintaining the same number of bitcoin as you want. Basically, you are replacing bitcoins bought during the year with bitcoins that you are buying in Nov28-Nov 30 timeframe. |
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traderCJ
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November 21, 2014, 05:47:56 PM |
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Maybe cause it's a bubble? An "asset" with no intrinsic value??? Best to sell now before it gets to zero. What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS. BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure. Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules. Well played, IRS, well played. I dont think so. You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year. Who said you need to report all conversions? In the eyes of the IRS, the exchange of BTC for goods or services is a taxable event. Surprised more wasn't made of this when the IRS announced this early 2014. |
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traderCJ
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November 21, 2014, 06:18:43 PM |
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Maybe cause it's a bubble? An "asset" with no intrinsic value??? Best to sell now before it gets to zero. What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS. BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure. Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules. Well played, IRS, well played. I dont think so. You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year. Who said you need to report all conversions? This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses. Depends. If you're buying Bitcoin as an investment, this makes sense. If you planned on spending your Bitcoin on a regular basis (using it as a currency, which is the whole point), just be prepared to report all liquidations to the IRS (even coffee). Will they find out about small transactions? Probably not. Larger ones may attract their attention. Be careful who you brag to, because the IRS is now giving cash rewards to people who report "tax cheats". Also, if you play around on a non-US exchange like Bitstamp, you would be foolish to assume the IRS doesn't already have a list of US traders who have gone through the account verification process. If there's one government institution you do not want to mess with, it is the IRS. Sidenote, whether or not FATCA applies to foreign Bitcoin exchanges is still in limbo. This will probably be resolved in the first round of Bitcoin IRS audits coming down the pipe. |
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fran2k
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November 21, 2014, 10:17:11 PM |
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Wow, very nice site! Thanks for the link. |
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cbeast
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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November 22, 2014, 12:16:26 AM |
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Maybe cause it's a bubble? An "asset" with no intrinsic value??? Best to sell now before it gets to zero. What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS. BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure. Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules. Well played, IRS, well played. I dont think so. You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year. Who said you need to report all conversions? This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses. How do you claim losses if you don't sell your bitcoins for less than you paid for them? If you want to take losses in bitcoin this year, there is one interesting strategy that I have seen described on stock boards. 1. You buy whatever the number of bitcoins you want to keep on or before November 30 (Nov 29, 28). 2. You sell previously bought bitcoins (those that you bought before those that you buy in #1) on December 31. 3. You claim loss in BTC trade against your other capital gains for the year until ALL such gains are gone+$3000 4. You should not buy any new bitcoin until after Jan 31 so you don't have wash sales. Result: you will have newly bought bitcoins, but you reduce your tax on other capital gains if you had them (plus $3000) Lose money just so you can claim to lose money. If everyone did that it would be musical chairs and you would be left without a chair. No, the point is to get rid of extra capital gains in other assets WHILE maintaining the same number of bitcoin as you want. Basically, you are replacing bitcoins bought during the year with bitcoins that you are buying in Nov28-Nov 30 timeframe. I mean volatility. My point is that if everyone sells, then the price drops and you get more loss. If everyone buys, you get less coins. Both ways you lose and the tax credit is trivial. |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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chessnut
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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November 22, 2014, 01:22:45 AM |
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Markets do not and cannot move in a straight line. This correction has been natural and healthy. If bitcoin was really a ponzi scheme, the price would be much lower right now, $50 and less, but the current price is very promising.
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picolo
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November 22, 2014, 04:07:18 AM |
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2015 should be fun for people that accumulate a few bitcoins in 2014 because most big news will benefit Bitcoin Silly old man missed the boat so he tries to sell a book. Sad. He should find Jesus.
He thinks he missed the boat but he didn't since there is the potential of a 10,000profit |
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cbeast
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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November 22, 2014, 05:06:58 AM |
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Silly old man missed the boat so he tries to sell a book. Sad. He should find Jesus.
He thinks he missed the boat but he didn't since there is the potential of a 10,000profit I stand corrected. I actually meant to say he thinks he missed the boat. |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
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November 22, 2014, 04:50:28 PM |
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When you lose faith, remind yourself how the protocol is designed and be impressed with the elegance once more.
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KIRAZ
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November 22, 2014, 05:00:28 PM |
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Absolutely agree with wachtwoord, new users in bitcoin world looks at it with a complete different perspective but it's much more and bigger than it
and do not lose hope we still are the early adopters there's still much more to come to it.
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dinofelis
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November 22, 2014, 05:43:26 PM |
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I bought in at 1000 , 750 , 650 , 450 , 350 , 270 , 350 , 420 , 350
Why are we still going down?
Is bitcoin failing?
What are the bitcoin fundamentals right now ? How much stuff is bought with bitcoin, and what is the bitcoin velocity ? What is the fraction of, say, the gold market bitcoin is claiming right now ? Honestly, if you look at all those fundamentals, bitcoin right now, without any speculative rise in the future, is largely over-priced. I don't think that there's $ 20 billion worth of stuff is sold every year in bitcoin ($ 5 billion market cap, and velocity of 4, like USD), even on black markets, with bitcoin. I don't think that bitcoin took over 0.1% of the gold market. These are the fundamentals that could justify a market cap of $ 5 billion. So most people are speculating on higher fundamentals in the future, which is why the price is so high as it is today. That there have been speculative bubbles in the past, when there were not so many traders and exchanges, especially the bubble to $1200,- doesn't mean at all that the fundamentals in the near future justify such a price and certainly not the fundamentals today. In fact, the bitcoin market doesn't even seem very liquid (in the sense that there are a lot of bitcoins with very low velocity, which haven't participated in the market often), which means that the current price actually only applies dynamically to a smaller fraction of the actual coins than those really existing. So I am not surprised at all that the price is at the current level - I even think it is mainly speculative aiming for future fundamentals which are much higher than the actual fundamentals today (gold market, and merchand adoption). I think that with all the trading going on now, there's no chance anymore to see these speculative bubbles as in the past. I don't think people are going to fall again for a surge to more than $1000,- in a few weeks. I don't think such prices are sustainable for the moment, and so everybody is going to expect a falling after such a potential surge - which means that the number of buyers at those high prices are not going to be able to sustain the price there, everybody expecting a lower price a few months later. A market usually "sobers up" after a few burst bubbles, and I think that last year's bubble and the decline afterwards has sobered up more than one trader. So the only movements I'm actually expecting are slow market movements following the speculation on the long-term fundamentals which are market share in the gold market, and merchand adoption, which can be higher or lower than current market price, and will subsequently have the market price evolve towards it, upward, or downward. |
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NotLambchop
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November 22, 2014, 05:55:16 PM |
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When you lose faith, remind yourself how the protocol is designed and be impressed with the elegance once more.
Or simply have another sip. Freshen your cup?  |
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BlindMayorBitcorn
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116
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November 22, 2014, 06:01:51 PM |
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Unfortunately, anybody who bought in above 7 or 8 hundred will forever be victim to one of histories biggest accidental trolls. Nothing will ever change that
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Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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KeyJockey
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November 22, 2014, 09:27:48 PM |
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One thing nobody's mentioned in this thread yet -- a possible huge wild card in all of it -- regarding bitcoin's future value and the possibility of at least one more 10X spike happening someday soon, is the entry of Wall Street and large institutional investor money into this space.
So far, because bitcoin is not any kind of "regulated" asset or investment vehicle, the big-money players have been prohibited (by LAW) from getting into it, in any significant capacity. (Note this doesn't mean they haven't been fooling around, maybe even "meddling" with it, in some "unofficial" or background, off-books, covert sort of way... which I totally believe is possible or even VERY likely).
The fact that Silicon Valley VC money has been pouring into the space, makes the entire "sales pitch" for these guys more and more palatable to their clients, vis-a-vis the idea that future USE of bitcoin & blockchain tech will be expanding into more & much EASIER TO USE products and services.
This, IMHO, is a fairly slow incremental process that's been going on all during the last year.
Ever since the Gox crash we've had almost ALL only GOOD news, all year! Yet the BTC price has gone down, even while every other metric of measuring bitcoin (transactions, hash rate, wallets, difficulty, etc) has continued exponentially UP.
Bottom Line: a "story" is being developed here, for these big-money boyz, which could give these guys the wherewithal that they'll need to *finally* get into bitcoin in a big way.
IF/WHEN that happens... billions of $$$ pouring into the space, there is no other possible price reaction due to the FIXED SUPPLY of existing bitcoins than UP UP UP.
If that doesn't happen? Well, then, yeah maybe we could remain *stuck* around $500 per BTC forever, of course, or we could even possibly see the entire "experiment" ultimately fail, and BTC price may then go to sub-$100 again.
But, ask yourself this: does anyone you know who's started to use bitcoin ever gone back to NOT using it, at all?
There are very few users already, of course: out of 100 people you ask on the street if they use bitcoin you'd be lucky to probably find ONE actual user. But if you put 100 bitcoin users into a room and ask how many of 'em are NOT using it any more at all... I think the number there would be zero or very, very low.
This, alone, means adoption & use is still increasing... despite the price dropping.
And a growing market is NEVER something that Wall Street or Silicon Valley *EVER* leaves alone for very long.
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- 1KeyJKVWVxdavKTetDJpQWdUaota5jbtX6 -
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ParabellumLite
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November 22, 2014, 09:33:11 PM |
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One thing nobody's mentioned in this thread yet -- a possible huge wild card in all of it -- regarding bitcoin's future value and the possibility of at least one more 10X spike happening someday soon, is the entry of Wall Street and large institutional investor money into this space.
So far, because bitcoin is not any kind of "regulated" asset or investment vehicle, the big-money players have been prohibited (by LAW) from getting into it, in any significant capacity. (Note this doesn't mean they haven't been fooling around, maybe even "meddling" with it, in some "unofficial" or background, off-books, covert sort of way... which I totally believe is possible or even VERY likely).
The fact that Silicon Valley VC money has been pouring into the space, makes the entire "sales pitch" for these guys more and more palatable to their clients, vis-a-vis the idea that future USE of bitcoin & blockchain tech will be expanding into more & much EASIER TO USE products and services.
This, IMHO, is a fairly slow incremental process that's been going on all during the last year.
Ever since the Gox crash we've had almost ALL only GOOD news, all year! Yet the BTC price has gone down, even while every other metric of measuring bitcoin (transactions, hash rate, wallets, difficulty, etc) has continued exponentially UP.
Bottom Line: a "story" is being developed here, for these big-money boyz, which could give these guys the wherewithal that they'll need to *finally* get into bitcoin in a big way.
IF/WHEN that happens... billions of $$$ pouring into the space, there is no other possible price reaction due to the FIXED SUPPLY of existing bitcoins than UP UP UP.
If that doesn't happen? Well, then, yeah maybe we could remain *stuck* around $500 per BTC forever, of course, or we could even possibly see the entire "experiment" ultimately fail, and BTC price may then go to sub-$100 again.
But, ask yourself this: does anyone you know who's started to use bitcoin ever gone back to NOT using it, at all?
There are very few users already, of course: out of 100 people you ask on the street if they use bitcoin you'd be lucky to probably find ONE actual user. But if you put 100 bitcoin users into a room and ask how many of 'em are NOT using it any more at all... I think the number there would be zero or very, very low.
This, alone, means adoption & use is still increasing... despite the price dropping.
And a growing market is NEVER something that Wall Street or Silicon Valley *EVER* leaves alone for very long.
Tell me, how much did you buy (recently) and at what price? I have carefully read all you tried to say here, but to come up with the idea that 2014 so far is a positive year after the Mt. Gox downfall really is delusional. It is not, nor is the argument that 'the big players' are just waiting to step in or moreover, that this is inevitable. Bitcoin can simply die due to altcoin competition in the next 12 months (as in, losing it's n1 place and slowly grinding down to 1) and then there's of course the issue if governments will actually allow Bitcoin to exist in the long run. In each case wake up, and smell the coffee. The moon is not happening. |
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jaredboice
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November 22, 2014, 09:40:26 PM |
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One thing nobody's mentioned in this thread yet -- a possible huge wild card in all of it -- regarding bitcoin's future value and the possibility of at least one more 10X spike happening someday soon, is the entry of Wall Street and large institutional investor money into this space.
So far, because bitcoin is not any kind of "regulated" asset or investment vehicle, the big-money players have been prohibited (by LAW) from getting into it, in any significant capacity. (Note this doesn't mean they haven't been fooling around, maybe even "meddling" with it, in some "unofficial" or background, off-books, covert sort of way... which I totally believe is possible or even VERY likely).
The fact that Silicon Valley VC money has been pouring into the space, makes the entire "sales pitch" for these guys more and more palatable to their clients, vis-a-vis the idea that future USE of bitcoin & blockchain tech will be expanding into more & much EASIER TO USE products and services.
This, IMHO, is a fairly slow incremental process that's been going on all during the last year.
Ever since the Gox crash we've had almost ALL only GOOD news, all year! Yet the BTC price has gone down, even while every other metric of measuring bitcoin (transactions, hash rate, wallets, difficulty, etc) has continued exponentially UP.
Bottom Line: a "story" is being developed here, for these big-money boyz, which could give these guys the wherewithal that they'll need to *finally* get into bitcoin in a big way.
IF/WHEN that happens... billions of $$$ pouring into the space, there is no other possible price reaction due to the FIXED SUPPLY of existing bitcoins than UP UP UP.
If that doesn't happen? Well, then, yeah maybe we could remain *stuck* around $500 per BTC forever, of course, or we could even possibly see the entire "experiment" ultimately fail, and BTC price may then go to sub-$100 again.
But, ask yourself this: does anyone you know who's started to use bitcoin ever gone back to NOT using it, at all?
There are very few users already, of course: out of 100 people you ask on the street if they use bitcoin you'd be lucky to probably find ONE actual user. But if you put 100 bitcoin users into a room and ask how many of 'em are NOT using it any more at all... I think the number there would be zero or very, very low.
This, alone, means adoption & use is still increasing... despite the price dropping.
And a growing market is NEVER something that Wall Street or Silicon Valley *EVER* leaves alone for very long.
Tell me, how much did you buy (recently) and at what price? I have carefully read all you tried to say here, but to come up with the idea that 2014 so far is a positive year after the Mt. Gox downfall really is delusional. It is not, nor is the argument that 'the big players' are just waiting to step in or moreover, that this is inevitable. Bitcoin can simply die due to altcoin competition in the next 12 months (as in, losing it's n1 place and slowly grinding down to 1) and then there's of course the issue if governments will actually allow Bitcoin to exist in the long run. In each case wake up, and smell the coffee. The moon is not happening. Choosing to ignore continual increases in adoption and venture capital reveals a hidden agenda. Thanks for your entirely one-sided post but thankfully most people on these boards are too smart to be affected by comments like that |
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NotLambchop
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November 22, 2014, 09:46:11 PM |
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^UR definitely overinvested, bro. I've seen this sort of thing before--always ends in tears.
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