Everything except the price trend is going fantastic

[saddampbuh]

everything except the thing that matters

[1714802578]

1714802578

[1714802578]

1714802578

[turvarya]

everything except the thing that matters

Can people like you please just play at a casino or something similar and leave bitcoin alone?

[oda.krell]

It's often discussed. The simple answer is, that the price is low due to price manipulation. Speculators can just make more money with high volatility and that is mostly what all the exchanges are about: Making money with speculation.

That is exactly the reason, why so many people don't look at the price anymore. If you look at other metrics you see, that the BTC-economy is growing.

Agreed on the premise that the crypto economy is doing fine, but disagreed on the conclusion that it must be due to manipulation (at least not in the sense of active, coordinated manipulation). People so easily forget that, each day, 3600 new coins are potentially entering the market (probably less, but don't fool yourself into thinking miners "hold" as much as they did two years ago), which at current valuation means up to 1.3M USD are needed per day are needed to sustain price. I'm simplifying, of course, it's probably not 1:1, but the point is: During its bootstrapping phase, Bitcoin is de facto highly inflationary, and the market must absorb this.

In addition, people seem to forget that we ran up to a major price peak last year, catapulting the hypothetical Bitcoin market cap to more than 10 billion. And that was after an almost uninterrupted upwards trend since late 2011. At some point, the market will cool down, like it or not.

None of that means Bitcoin is done. Far from it. But it never was a realistic option that we'd go straight to 100k USD, by some magical, market defying process of the entire world giving up fiat and turning their assets into crypto. The process will be a lot more choppy. Still a good investment, imo, and most likely price will go up again substantially, but not in one smooth go, and probably not quite as high as some in here used to think, or still think.

[Hyena]

Anyone wishing yet they invested in ripple? I have hated XRP since it was conceived but it seems to grow like cancer lately. Any ideas why it's in a bubble and will it pose any threat to bitcoin?

[inca]

I expect that the Bitcoin ETF will trigger the next rally phase.

I wouldn't expect any rally of significance any more.  People got burned by the MtGox bubble.  Tullips don't rally twice.  Moreover, there are now a lot of trading options.  Speculation and trading usually make large excursions harder to come by.  A fully speculated and traded market usually only has large excursions as a function of unexpected events.

I would expect the price now, on the longer term, to evolve more slowly as a function of the expectation of the future fundamentals of bitcoin.  Bitcoin came to some form of maturity after the MtGox bubble I would think.

Well worded bs. Look at the long term log price chart, the current user base, and current market cap. Bitcoin has far further to run from here. Newbies.

[NotLambchop]

...Bitcoin has far further to run from here. Newbies.

Keep running, filthy Bitcoiners.  There's no place to hide!

[lontivero]

Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.

In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.

If you want to know the usage, why do you see the volume in USD? That chart shows how many wealth in moving. The number of transactions should be a better meassure of dinamism. https://blockchain.info/es/charts/n-transactions

[inca]

Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.

In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.

If you want to know the usage, why do you see the volume in USD? That chart shows how many wealth in moving. The number of transactions should be a better meassure of dinamism. https://blockchain.info/es/charts/n-transactions

Nagle was here in 2011 and missed out on being an early adopter by being constantly bearish on bitcoin. I would review his post history before taking his posts too seriously!

[NotLambchop]

Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.

In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.

If you want to know the usage, why do you see the volume in USD? That chart shows how many wealth in moving. The number of transactions should be a better meassure of dinamism. https://blockchain.info/es/charts/n-transactions

USD volume represents the value of the transactions.
The number of transactions means little--if you buy something from me for $100, I don't care if you hand me a $100 bill once, or hand me $10 bill ten times.

[lontivero]

Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.

In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.

If you want to know the usage, why do you see the volume in USD? That chart shows how many wealth in moving. The number of transactions should be a better meassure of dinamism. https://blockchain.info/es/charts/n-transactions

USD volume represents the value of the transactions.
The number of transactions means little--if you buy something from me for $100, I don't care if you hand me a $100 bill once, or hand me $10 bill ten times.

That means that for a given day, a few hundred transactions for a couple of million USD each is better than a couple of millon transactions for a few tens USD. Sorry, I don't agree.

[turvarya]

Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.

In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.

If you want to know the usage, why do you see the volume in USD? That chart shows how many wealth in moving. The number of transactions should be a better meassure of dinamism. https://blockchain.info/es/charts/n-transactions

USD volume represents the value of the transactions.
The number of transactions means little--if you buy something from me for $100, I don't care if you hand me a $100 bill once, or hand me $10 bill ten times.

Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

[NotLambchop]

...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.

[turvarya]

...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.

If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

[inca]

...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.

If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Don't expect a reply to that rebuttal

[NotLambchop]

...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.

If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Sure.  Are you suggesting that the USD volume data could also be manipulated and likely is?
I'm with you on that one, brah

@inca:  Your prognosticatin' skillz in this thread are on par with your ability to read the market. 

[turvarya]

...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.

If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Sure.  Are you suggesting that the USD volume data could also be manipulated and likely is?
I'm with you on that one, brah

@inca:  Your prognosticatin' skillz in this thread are on par with your ability to read the market. 

I don't think, anybody does this in a large enough scale to really have a significant impact on the statistics.
People often tell me that all statistics/studies are fake, when a statistic/study doesn't fit their gut instinct, but sorry, the statistic/case study is still better than your gut instinct.
When all media, all statistic, all studies are fake, on what do you base your opinion/knowledge? Conspiracy theory sites on the internet?

[NotLambchop]

...
Why would you make more than one transaction for a purchase? The values might come from different addresses, which resembles you metaphor of 10 10$ bills.

Because I control more than one address?  Because tx fees are ridiculously small?  Because it costs nothing to create an addy?
Why wouldn't I, considering that folks like you equate # of transactions with influx of users?  Profit.

If you want to make fake data, you can also just send the same amount forward and back between two addresses to increase USD volume. That doesn't make that metric better in any way.

Sure.  Are you suggesting that the USD volume data could also be manipulated and likely is?
I'm with you on that one, brah

@inca:  Your prognosticatin' skillz in this thread are on par with your ability to read the market. 

I don't think, anybody does this in a large enough scale to really have a significant impact on the statistics.
People often tell me that all statistics/studies are fake, when a statistic/study doesn't fit their gut instinct, but sorry, the statistic/case study is still better than your gut instinct.
When all media, all statistic, all studies are fake, on what do you base your opinion/knowledge? Conspiracy theory sites on the internet?

You asked me why I would do X, I have answered you.
Without thanking me, you went on to offer other means of manipulating data.  I have agreed with you.
Now you're suggesting I'm a conspiracy theorist
I'm not saying the statistics are fake, only that they don't mean what you think they mean.

[Nagle]

What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.

No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.

[EuroTrash]

What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market.

No, a lot more trade volume has not entered the market.

What I see is in that graph is a U-shaped long bottom in the making.
Go figure. Different people, different conclusions.

[inca]

Nagle,

Quite strange you chose those start and end dates. Are you expecting USD transaction volume to be higher at the end of a prolonged bear market than it was at the previous manic top? Ridiculous.

Why not view the all time log chart for a better picture of transaction volume (easy to do just click the options at the bottom).

It shows a clear steady up trend.