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Author Topic: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic  (Read 9431 times)
lontivero
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November 26, 2014, 03:10:46 PM
 #1

I don't use to open discussions here because all my questions have already been answered somewhere in this forum however I cannot understand what is going on in these days with the bitcoin price. Let me explain myself:

It is clear for me that in this year (2014) we are a lot better than years before. We can buy directly with bitcoins in overstock and paypal has "integrated" bitcoin in its payment system. I also saw a browser extension that allow us to buy in amazon (there is a middleman).

Without MtGox and after the 2013's bubble the ecosystem looks healthier than before.

There weren't bad news in 2014, no more repetitive-fear-generator SilkRoad / drugs / isis / satan news. In fact there were more good news thanks to new projects/startups.

I think that in this atmosphere the bitcoin's price shouldn't go down. What is going on? Do you know?
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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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November 26, 2014, 03:13:56 PM
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What's happened is since the last rise a lot more trade volume has entered the market, so it will be a lot more difficult mess with the price short term, before you could pretty much dump a few hundred thousand into the market and that would be enough to send it skyrocketing ( You could do this in the altcoin markets for example, with less actually because they aren't as well known ) but now it's going to be difficult because there's so many people trading it's going to require a big move for the price to go either way.

This is partly a good thing though, because people were bitching and moaning about stability a lot before, it will be interesting to see what happens during the stock market crash that is inevitably going to happen.
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November 26, 2014, 03:14:34 PM
 #3

I don't use to open discussions here because all my questions have already been answered somewhere in this forum however I cannot understand what is going on in these days with the bitcoin price. Let me explain myself:

It is clear for me that in this year (2014) we are a lot better than years before. We can buy directly with bitcoins in overstock and paypal has "integrated" bitcoin in its payment system. I also saw a browser extension that allow us to buy in amazon (there is a middleman).

Without MtGox and after the 2013's bubble the ecosystem looks healthier than before.

There weren't bad news in 2014, no more repetitive-fear-generator SilkRoad / drugs / isis / satan news. In fact there were more good news thanks to new projects/startups.

I think that in this atmosphere the bitcoin's price shouldn't go down. What is going on? Do you know?

It's often discussed. The simple answer is, that the price is low due to price manipulation. Speculators can just make more money with high volatility and that is mostly what all the exchanges are about: Making money with speculation.

That is exactly the reason, why so many people don't look at the price anymore. If you look at other metrics you see, that the BTC-economy is growing.

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November 26, 2014, 03:26:18 PM
 #4

I don't use to open discussions here because all my questions have already been answered somewhere in this forum however I cannot understand what is going on in these days with the bitcoin price. Let me explain myself:

It is clear for me that in this year (2014) we are a lot better than years before. We can buy directly with bitcoins in overstock and paypal has "integrated" bitcoin in its payment system. I also saw a browser extension that allow us to buy in amazon (there is a middleman).

Without MtGox and after the 2013's bubble the ecosystem looks healthier than before.

There weren't bad news in 2014, no more repetitive-fear-generator SilkRoad / drugs / isis / satan news. In fact there were more good news thanks to new projects/startups.

I think that in this atmosphere the bitcoin's price shouldn't go down. What is going on? Do you know?

It's often discussed. The simple answer is, that the price is low due to price manipulation. Speculators can just make more money with high volatility and that is mostly what all the exchanges are about: Making money with speculation.

That is exactly the reason, why so many people don't look at the price anymore. If you look at other metrics you see, that the BTC-economy is growing.

Indeed.
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November 26, 2014, 03:27:20 PM
 #5

...
There weren't bad news in 2014, no more repetitive-fear-generator SilkRoad / drugs / isis / satan news.

Quote
In fact there were more good news thanks to new projects/startups.

Quote
I think that in this atmosphere the bitcoin's price shouldn't go down. What is going on? Do you know?

Yeah, you're not paying attention Undecided

lontivero
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November 26, 2014, 03:35:03 PM
 #6

If you look at other metrics you see, that the BTC-economy is growing.

That's what I say and that what feels weird because if the btc-economy grows and the btc supply is the sameone then the price should go up, or at least that's my opinion (I realised I don't understand economy at all).


This is partly a good thing though, because people were bitching and moaning about stability a lot before
Yes, I think so. Anyway, more volume (more buy/sell transactions) sounds as bigger market (more capital) and provably a bigger demand.  

It will be interesting to see what happens during the stock market crash that is inevitably going to happen.
Do you have a link to read about that? Or could you explain yourself a bit more, please?

lontivero
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November 26, 2014, 03:38:47 PM
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@NotLambchop, good points really. In you opinion, was it enough to affect the price? Do you think the 2014's news were worse than the 2013's ones?
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November 26, 2014, 03:39:59 PM
 #8

The total market cap of bitcoin is 5 billion, equivalent to a mid-size Chinese real estate company:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_in_China.

It is also 1/1000 of what Fed accumulated in their QE programs (4.5 trillion).

This should give you some perspective on where things are currently.
NotLambchop
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November 26, 2014, 03:52:35 PM
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@NotLambchop, good points really. In you opinion, was it enough to affect the price? Do you think the 2014's news were worse than the 2013's ones?

People forget that Mt.Gox hit the news this year, starting off this barrage of "good news":



That, along with post-bubble publicity and tighter regulations/string of criminal indictments (making Bitcoin less attractive as a black market currency) contributed to current price slump.
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November 26, 2014, 04:29:19 PM
 #10

To sum up: The fundamentals are great and improving. The price does not follow yet. >>> Worries.

Don't worry, because it's just a matter of time before prices will adjust to fundamentals. The market is still digesting the astronomic rise of last year. You will have noticed that the amplitude of price movements is slowly decreasing. The market is calming down, which is a good sign. The next rise will start after a longer phase of boring sideways movement.

I expect that the Bitcoin ETF will trigger the next rally phase.

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November 26, 2014, 04:30:48 PM
 #11

The price is exactly correct. It may not be what I like, but it is correct.

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November 26, 2014, 04:39:18 PM
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Don't worry, because it's just a matter of time before prices will adjust to fundamentals.

Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.
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November 26, 2014, 04:50:50 PM
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Surely "fantastic" would involve a rapid and exponential increase in the use of Bitcoin as a means of payment, driving a similar rapid and exponential increase in the volume of Bitcoin transactions?
These both remain things that people hope to see in the future, despite Bitcoin being five years old.
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November 27, 2014, 07:27:47 AM
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Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.
In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.
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November 27, 2014, 07:37:37 AM
 #15

I don't use to open discussions here because all my questions have already been answered somewhere in this forum however I cannot understand what is going on in these days with the bitcoin price. Let me explain myself:

It is clear for me that in this year (2014) we are a lot better than years before. We can buy directly with bitcoins in overstock and paypal has "integrated" bitcoin in its payment system. I also saw a browser extension that allow us to buy in amazon (there is a middleman).

Without MtGox and after the 2013's bubble the ecosystem looks healthier than before.

There weren't bad news in 2014, no more repetitive-fear-generator SilkRoad / drugs / isis / satan news. In fact there were more good news thanks to new projects/startups.

I think that in this atmosphere the bitcoin's price shouldn't go down. What is going on? Do you know?


I think the market price is overall correct, and I don't think it is manipulated long-term.  The fundamentals at this moment would give you probably a price which is way lower than the current price (the amount of stuff bought with bitcoin - mainly the black market, and the gold market share).  $10.- wouldn't surprise me.  So a serious part of the current price is the speculative estimation of future fundamentals and their probability.  If you give it 3% chance that a coin will reach $10 000.-, you may be willing to put $300.- in a coin now.  Well, less, because of risk aversion.

The other good indicators simply increase slightly the chance that one day, bitcoin will have stronger fundamentals.  That would on one hand go for a higher speculative price now.  On the other hand, the bubble from MtGox is still deflating.  One was around $100.- before.

So you should take as a baseline, $100.- or so, and consider the price increase relative to that.  If all the good news would double chances for bitcoin, the right price would be $200.-.

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November 27, 2014, 07:39:46 AM
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Thinking this very much too - and considering just how much positive the growth of fundamentals has seemed over the past year, I'm very much looking forward to the adjustment.
In the last half year, the use of Bitcoin hasn't changed much. See Estimated transaction volume in USD, which has been flat for six months now. There's been a lot of talk about growth in usage, but it's not happening.


Looking at transaction volume, it is up around 300% from this time last year, which means around $360 is pretty much exactly where the price should be.

Plus number of transactions and number of unique addresses used continues to climb, I would say BTC is pretty much where it should be. Remember, we were at $15 not that long ago. I would say we should hit 4 digits again around this time next year.
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November 27, 2014, 07:43:17 AM
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I expect that the Bitcoin ETF will trigger the next rally phase.

I wouldn't expect any rally of significance any more.  People got burned by the MtGox bubble.  Tullips don't rally twice.  Moreover, there are now a lot of trading options.  Speculation and trading usually make large excursions harder to come by.  A fully speculated and traded market usually only has large excursions as a function of unexpected events.

I would expect the price now, on the longer term, to evolve more slowly as a function of the expectation of the future fundamentals of bitcoin.  Bitcoin came to some form of maturity after the MtGox bubble I would think.
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November 27, 2014, 07:59:10 AM
 #18

speculation and manipulation,real price is above 1000$
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November 27, 2014, 10:14:13 AM
 #19

The price is exactly correct. It may not be what I like, but it is correct.

Price may not be what we all like but with time it will come to price we all want to see for now is stable.
This is good for now but we will see will it stay like this but for one point of view price will jumping and dropping always.



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November 27, 2014, 10:16:21 AM
 #20

speculation and manipulation,real price is above 1000$

Real price may be above 1000$ but that dont seem to be at the moment.
Maybe with next year or something. Price is fine for now. Maybe will hit 500$ by end of year but i dont think so.

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