goatpig
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May 18, 2011, 11:42:40 PM Last edit: May 18, 2011, 11:54:19 PM by goatpig |
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Is this a recommendation to trade USD for BTC?
Yes. I mean, there is a difference for a new comer between letting BTC generate and actually trading currency for BTC. Mining is a different approach to entering the BTC market. It is highly profitable right now, but it takes some time to set it up and get it running and requires rapidly depreciating computer hardware to run it, not to mention it his highly competitive. It is simply easier and faster to buy some BTC. Also anyone who bought BTC in early April is looking at much higher profits (3-4 times) than those who spend the exact same amount in mining rigs. For example, I do still do not understand the long-term viability of BTC, how prices are determined, and how anyone can predict the future success of BTC. BTC as a store of value has the same properties as gold, it thus naturally attracts anyone who can appreciate the qualities of gold. It offers those qualities in a different aspect, mainly that it is fully digitalized. That's the "sales pitch" to gold bugs. It is expected that anyone who values gold will value BTC for the same reasons, and part of those people will want to buy into BTC for the digital aspect. This is only considering BTC as a store of value. If some vendors start supporting it, then the sky's the limit. Given these points, the more BTC is publicized, the more newcomers show up wanting to buy some, and the higher the exchange rate goes. As long as BTC doesn't encounter a major system failure, there is nothing to stop it from growing. If people generating BTC do not grasp each of these subjects then how long would you expect for BTC to deliver a greater return than gold? What is the time horizon for this? Gold appreciates like 1% a month right now I think. From my own estimate, gathered from the recent press hits and the upcoming CIA conference in June, I'd expect BTC to be around $15 at least by early July. Considering it's waving around $6~$8 right now, that's about double in value. But don't take that for granted, it only my humble guess, establish your own estimate from the informations you gather.
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SgtSpike
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May 18, 2011, 11:52:04 PM |
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DERP, I suppose what we're getting at through the course of this conversation is that BTC is a currency in its infancy. There are really only two reasons one should use it as a currency at this moment: - You dislike centralized/governmental currencies, and would like to see bitcoins replace them all, so you are willing to put the effort into making as many transactions with bitcoins as possible, in the hopes that it will help stabilize and promote the currency. - You are a speculator, and are actively using it to make money through speculation, investments, and other related transactions. It is a HOPE that bitcoins will achieve the same or greater level of usage and usability as something like gold does. It's not there yet, not even close. But it is growing stronger and more usable every day. It's just not to the point where it can compete with other currencies out there, but it CAN compete with other currencies if more and more people keep using it. BTW, there is a way to physically exchange bitcoins too - look at www.bitbills.com
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DERP (OP)
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May 18, 2011, 11:52:59 PM |
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
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goatpig
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May 18, 2011, 11:57:30 PM |
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
There's the OTC (over the counter) channel on IRCfreenode with a web of trust application attached to it. Some of the most trusted traders over there have a lot of BTC on their hands. It's probably the second best place after MtGox to get ahold of BTC and it's definitaly further away from the spotlights than Gox.
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FreeMoney
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May 18, 2011, 11:59:03 PM |
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Hi DERP,
The stamp comment was meant to point out how btc has one of the good properties of gold in the extreme. You can put a million dolars worth of gold in a backpack, but you can put a million dollars worth of bitcoins onto a <1gram SD card.
Bitcoin doesn't have an exchange built in, really nothing does. For a lot of things there is one major marketplace, for bitcoin right now that is mtgox.com. No matter what the price is there though you can choose to sell your coins or not at whatever price anyone offers you. Mtgox is just a place where people make offers to each other.
The reason people value bitcoin so much is for a lot of the same reasons people value gold. They are both durable, divisible (bitcoin more easily so), transferable (bitcoin more so), fungilbe, and scarce. For different scenarios one or the other is more suitable, I have both. For most of what I do though Bitcoin makes more sense.
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DERP (OP)
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May 18, 2011, 11:59:35 PM |
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
There's the OTC (over the counter) channel on IRCfreenode with a web of trust application attached to it. Some of the most trusted traders over there have a lot of BTC on their hands. It's probably the second best place after MtGox to get ahold of BTC and it's definitaly further away from the spotlights than Gox. What is the channel name? I tried #OTC, but there is just one person in there.
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FreeMoney
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May 19, 2011, 12:01:56 AM |
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Dark pools are no problem. If it hasn't been said yet, dark pool trades on Mtgox are shown after they happen, just not before. This is more transparent to you than when someone PMs me and I make a sale to them. In that case you never see anything about the trade and that's fine because it's not your business to know what everyone is doing. There are pros and cons to making offers in private vs public. Neither chose hurts people, but public offers do help people a little in that they get an extra opportunity and a little info.
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Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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goatpig
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May 19, 2011, 12:02:38 AM |
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
There's the OTC (over the counter) channel on IRCfreenode with a web of trust application attached to it. Some of the most trusted traders over there have a lot of BTC on their hands. It's probably the second best place after MtGox to get ahold of BTC and it's definitaly further away from the spotlights than Gox. What is the channel name? I tried #OTC, but there is just one person in there. #bitcoinOTC on IRCfreenode if I recall correctly
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NghtRppr
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May 19, 2011, 12:14:03 AM |
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
There's the OTC (over the counter) channel on IRCfreenode with a web of trust application attached to it. Some of the most trusted traders over there have a lot of BTC on their hands. It's probably the second best place after MtGox to get ahold of BTC and it's definitaly further away from the spotlights than Gox. What is the channel name? I tried #OTC, but there is just one person in there. #bitcoinOTC on IRCfreenode if I recall correctly #bitcoin-otc
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bitcredit
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May 19, 2011, 02:20:43 AM |
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There's no charge to receive Bitcoin. If people want to pay a transaction fee, that's up to the buyer.
There's also no charge to store Bitcoin. EGold has a storage fee.
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caveden
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May 19, 2011, 07:17:54 AM |
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I haven't read the entire topic, I'm just answering directly the OP. The following charts should make it pretty much clear why you would prefer using BTC instead of gold: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.safehaven.com%2Fauthors%2Fwatson%2F3412.gif&t=665&c=ENsNOCXATiqLiQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2F5%2F54%2FTotal_bitcoins_over_time.png&t=665&c=kXMidQo2queDww)
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caveden
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May 19, 2011, 07:29:41 AM |
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That's the most important, but besides that, there are the advantages others explained already, mainly the fact that bitcoin is decentralized by design. To accept gold payments, you either have to trust a third party - which will probably be vulnerable to a government, and then bye bye privacy/security - or you'll have to accept physical gold plus silver and copper for small changes, meaning you'll have to find ways of protecting this physical gold, not to mention the hassle and limitations (cost!) on transportation.
Protecting data is certainly easier (cheaper!) than protecting anything physical. Data may be backed up, a physical commodity cannot, meaning if your safe gets destroyed, you lose. Data may be encrypted, meaning that even if someone has access to it, he would also need a password. And with the existent techniques to create hidden encrypted volumes, even torturing you to get the password may not be enough to get everything you have.
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DERP (OP)
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May 20, 2011, 12:37:24 AM |
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So I've got like $5000 saved up so should I put i all into bitcoin
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FreeMoney
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May 20, 2011, 12:42:03 AM |
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So I've got like $5000 saved up so should I put i all into bitcoin
Gotta decide for yourself. But make sure you understand as much as possible and are comfortable or you are going to screw yourself by panicking on any downswing. No need to do it all at once either.
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rezin777
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May 20, 2011, 12:42:18 AM |
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So I've got like $5000 saved up so should I put i all into bitcoin
It would be unwise to put all your eggs in one basket.
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DERP (OP)
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May 20, 2011, 01:02:29 AM |
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So I've got like $5000 saved up so should I put i all into bitcoin
It would be unwise to put all your eggs in one basket. Yeah but they're already in one basket (in the dollar basket)
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edd
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May 20, 2011, 01:08:30 AM |
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As with any investment, there is a certain amount of risk involved. Most here believe bitcoins will appreciate in value and would advise in favor. Then again, if we felt otherwise, we probably wouldn't be here. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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Still around.
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cypherdoc
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May 20, 2011, 01:30:53 AM |
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I have read that concerns over hoarding BTC can be alleviated by more people accepting BTC. But why should I? Why should I accept your BTC as payment for something in leiu of something like a goldgram?
Please, if you can, explain WHY. I have noticed that when discussion of gold comes up here on this forum people seem to ask pointed questions in response to why BTC is as legitimate or even better than gold as a currency without actually constructing a solid point.
Derp, i'm a fellow gold/silver bug that started buying in 2005. i am a former Goldmoney goldgram holder. i closed that acct a couple of yrs ago. hard to wire money to Jersey Island and gov't will limit expatriation of money. still own bullion but sold off a bunch to buy btc. also shorted recent silver ramp. i believe its too difficult for bullion to conduct intl trade. old concept. need digital currency to move at light speed. i'm a believer in tech and the internet. btc is a 21st century concept.
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FreeMoney
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May 20, 2011, 01:34:50 AM |
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So I've got like $5000 saved up so should I put i all into bitcoin
It would be unwise to put all your eggs in one basket. Yeah but they're already in one basket (in the dollar basket) This is a frequently overlooked point. A related fantasy is that no profit is real until you convert it to dollars.
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cypherdoc
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May 20, 2011, 01:35:08 AM |
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Because you can send it instantly over the interwebz? Because you can store all your wealth on the back of a stamp? Because it isn't practical to pay someone $1 or $0.50 worth of gold, but you can pay bitcoins in any fraction you like. That's all I can think of. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) But mostly being able to send it online and anonymously. With a goldgram it is not very difficult for me to sell my gold for money, then send the currency I traded it for to a person on the internet. Storing my gold on the back of a stamp? Is this really WHY I should start accepting your BTC? I should do work for you in BTC because I can "store my wealth on the back of a stamp"? What is this supposed to mean to me? It means nothing. Please explain further. It isn't practical to pay someone in small amounts of gold? Sure, maybe for a buck or half a buck, there might not be a more convenient way to pay someone. But is this really supposed to allure me into accepting BTC for labor? If I need to pay someone a buck or two, I will just pay them a buck or two. I do not see what advantage BTC has over USD in this regard. What benefit is there to conducting my transactions anonymously online? How much does it cost me to generate BTC? Surely the lack of an exchange is a severe disadvantage for the currency. How am I supposed to negotiate payment in exchange for my time and labor for BTC when there is simple way to discover a price? How am I supposed to know what stores are accepting in BTC as market conditions change? It's better to accept two payment methods rather than one. Some people have gold but no BTC. Some people have BTC but no gold. You expand your potential market by accepting either. A payment in a commodity that has no known exchange rate for any given time. A commodity that is very new and its future uncertain to those new to the BTC. Those services are centralized in that you HAVE to go through a 3rd party that has absolute control over account and balance. Simply put, it's not easy to hold "digitalized" gold, and it creates a security gap. Bitcoin goes around that, since it's digital to begin with. Bitcoin also has the potential to turn into a currency as is, when gold needs that digital layer. So you say BTC is more "secure"? Tell me again why this security is so much better than trusting a DGC service, even though BTC has no exchange and prices cannot be determined by market participants nearly as easy as gold or silver. I do appreciate all of your input on this subject so far and I hope that you continue to participate in this discussion. the btc economy has exploded and is moving much quicker that pm businesses. much faster and easier than pm's. the exchange price of pm's is hardly realistic with all the manipulation by JPM and GS as u know. huge distortions with all the paper pm's like SLV/GLD. we do have an active mtgox exchange. not perfect but not bad.
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