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June 23, 2012, 02:18:19 AM |
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Given BFL's previous supply issues, does anyone think they'll be able to put out more than almost 1300 singles in a 3 month period? I think the initial runs of singles will be massively profitable for the early adopters.
Not knowing the current sales numbers, it's hard to say. However, if I made a guess that the ones actually posting on the forum that they have gotten a device represents one fourth of customers (number pulled out of my ass), then I would say they might be able to hit that especially since they have an opportunity now to tune the production line. Let's say they are shipping ~200 Singles per week now. Do the math, I did the guessing.  |
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||bit
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June 23, 2012, 02:21:21 AM |
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You neglect the scenario of the th/s boxes shipping first if that happens then your rosy picture here turns to shit and if any amount of them a week ship then your profitable for a week or two at most until you reach the point of never seeing a return at about week three.
If the BFL person answers my prior comment to him/her, then we'll know what may more likely transpire. I suspect, assuming they are reasonable, that they will focus on the coffeee warmers and jalapenos. Otherwise, it will not go over well with the customers they want to keep. ||bit |
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MrTeal
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1004
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June 23, 2012, 02:24:53 AM |
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My solution:
Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.
This will give everyone ample time to order
Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount
When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.
That way everone will receive their products around the same time
Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is. |
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Phraust
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 206
Merit: 100
Mostly Harmless...
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June 23, 2012, 02:31:07 AM |
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I think it's nice that they even consider our input. Honestly, they are the only game in town, and could tell us to all kick rocks. Anyone who wanted the hashpower only they can provide would still have to deal with them, regardless.
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DILLIGAF
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June 23, 2012, 02:46:27 AM |
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My solution:
Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.
This will give everyone ample time to order
Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount
When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.
That way everone will receive their products around the same time
Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is. Bet it does you probably live in the US therefore guaranteed to get your order days/weeks before everyone else. |
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MrTeal
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1004
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June 23, 2012, 02:50:09 AM |
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My solution:
Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.
This will give everyone ample time to order
Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount
When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.
That way everone will receive their products around the same time
Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is. Bet it does you probably live in the US therefore guaranteed to get your order days/weeks before everyone else. I don't. Would you expect them to estimate the average delivery time and stagger the shipments based on that? |
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quattro
Member
Offline
Activity: 67
Merit: 10
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June 23, 2012, 03:19:12 AM |
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We've been working with Bit-Pay for a BTC exclusive order form. This is meant to both promote the good services of Bit-Pay and give dedicated miners a bit of an advantage in getting in position. We'll have that posted later tonight. Alternate payment methods of Dwolla and BankWire will come shortly thereafter.
Please help... We're respectful of the significance of order position, but we can't think of any good way to organize it other than opening it up to orders and letting it go as it may.
Another alternative is to go odd / even. Odd being consecutive down the priority list and even being a random selection from orders that month.
Any thoughts on this?
No plans for PP or CC? PP will come later. We don't process CC's. Will the bit-pay order form be able to accommodate the trade credit for users that have pending orders? Will we be able to just pay the difference in bitcoin? |
PM me if you need hosting for your FPGA or ASIC miner. Secure, air conditioned facility... will beat competitor pricing. Over 15 years in the hosting industry.
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DILLIGAF
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June 23, 2012, 03:22:02 AM |
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My solution:
Open up a pre–order list from Monday till mid–july, then close it.
This will give everyone ample time to order
Make an inventory of what has been ordered and start producing exactly that amount
When all the pre–Orders have been produced, pack them and ship them off at the same day in october, be it jalapenos, singles or rigs.
That way everone will receive their products around the same time
Seems fair to me. I'm not sure BFL is really terribly worried about fairness, but it is what it is. Bet it does you probably live in the US therefore guaranteed to get your order days/weeks before everyone else. I don't. Would you expect them to estimate the average delivery time and stagger the shipments based on that? Quite frankly I think it should be lottery everybody gets a number for each unit ordered then you take your chances but above all BFL should announce a clear plan of how they plan to ship these boxes. For example do the th/s boxes ship first or if not when do they ship the smaller stuff going first will not have that big an impact on the overall hash rate to screw everyone over but the big boxes well different story there they have the potential to fuck everyone except the lucky few who get them in the first week or two of shipping if they go first depending on how many/fast they go out the door. Edit: And I would add some people don't seem to get the idea that once these things ship that th/s is going to be the new gh/s so it is going to be $30k to get involved in BTC to be a puny player if you have 5-10gh/s farm now well do the math on that to get a couple of btc a day in return for your investment once these things are well on their way out the door. |
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-ck
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1631
Ruu \o/
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June 23, 2012, 03:27:07 AM |
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Since BitForce is a hardware company in their own words, they should help software developers like myself get access to the hardware and specs early or there will be a flurry of rushed code to try and support them as is happening right now with the minirigs. I'm guessing they will meter out their hardware from smallest/slowest to fastest as others have predicted, so it's not like they need to provide access to $30k / 1TH of hashing power to the devs while it's still a significant chunk of the network speed.
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Developer/maintainer for cgminer, ckpool/ckproxy, and the -ck kernel
2% Fee Solo mining at solo.ckpool.org
-ck
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||bit
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June 23, 2012, 03:35:21 AM |
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Edit: And I would add some people don't seem to get the idea that once these things ship that th/s is going to be the new gh/s so it is going to be $30k to get involved in BTC to be a puny player if you have 5-10gh/s farm now well do the math on that to get a couple of btc a day in return for your investment once these things are well on their way out the door.
Beat the rush, start selling your video cards now. Then maybe buy bitocins with said funds. Wait for October, and use them to make SC purchases. |
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DILLIGAF
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June 23, 2012, 04:11:16 AM |
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Edit: And I would add some people don't seem to get the idea that once these things ship that th/s is going to be the new gh/s so it is going to be $30k to get involved in BTC to be a puny player if you have 5-10gh/s farm now well do the math on that to get a couple of btc a day in return for your investment once these things are well on their way out the door.
Beat the rush, start selling your video cards now. Then maybe buy bitocins with said funds. Wait for October, and use them to make SC purchases. More like save the BTC until next year to get the cheap ASICs that will be available once the early adopters get royally screwed again all depending on how the hash power these things have is deployed. That is why it is super critical to know how it it going to happen so people can plan accordingly. Now if small stuff goes first then the large box last four or five months later once the hash rate has built up then that can work and be manageable. The reverse large goes first no sense at all in buying any of the small stuff and if your in the third or fourth week of shipping probably the same for the large no sense buying as you will never see return matching your outlay. |
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BFL (OP)
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June 23, 2012, 04:15:18 AM |
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Edit: And I would add some people don't seem to get the idea that once these things ship that th/s is going to be the new gh/s so it is going to be $30k to get involved in BTC to be a puny player if you have 5-10gh/s farm now well do the math on that to get a couple of btc a day in return for your investment once these things are well on their way out the door.
Beat the rush, start selling your video cards now. Then maybe buy bitocins with said funds. Wait for October, and use them to make SC purchases. More like save the BTC until next year to get the cheap ASICs that will be available once the early adopters get royally screwed again all depending on how the hash power these things have is deployed. That is why it is super critical to know how it it going to happen so people can plan accordingly. Now if small stuff goes first then the large box last four or five months later once the hash rate has built up then that can work and be manageable. The reverse large goes first no sense at all in buying any of the small stuff and if your in the third or fourth week of shipping probably the same for the large no sense buying as you will never see return matching your outlay. All three products are set with their own production line and will begin shipments at roughly the same time. |
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Serge
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
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June 23, 2012, 05:38:38 AM |
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BFL, approximately how many SC 1TH units do you expect or will be ready to sell in october? will it be worth getting coffee warmers at all?
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BFL (OP)
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June 23, 2012, 05:44:43 AM |
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BFL, approximately how many SC 1TH units do you expect or will be ready to sell in october? will it be worth getting coffee warmers at all?
The relative cost per mh/s isn't too far off from the Jalapeno to the Mini Rig SC. This being the case, it's not really any particular threat if someone has a 1 TH/s mini rig vs a shopping bag of of Jalapeno's. The Jalapeno's will still be relevant as compared to their purchase price. |
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DILLIGAF
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June 23, 2012, 06:42:48 AM |
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BFL, approximately how many SC 1TH units do you expect or will be ready to sell in october? will it be worth getting coffee warmers at all?
The relative cost per mh/s isn't too far off from the Jalapeno to the Mini Rig SC. This being the case, it's not really any particular threat if someone has a 1 TH/s mini rig vs a shopping bag of of Jalapeno's. The Jalapeno's will still be relevant as compared to their purchase price. Purchase price comparability is jack shit compared to their comparable percentage of the hashing power you will put online with them th/s boxes, those are the main driver of the massive hash rate potential increase. If you put 100 th/s boxes online and 1000 jalapeno's (your shopping bag full analogy, BTW must be big shopping bag you need ~300 of them for it to work) then the th/s boxes are a ~28:1 advantage over the jalapeno or in other words the comparably priced mh/s jalapeno is now worth 1/28 the mh/s hashing power of a th/s box on the network. For it to be equal you would need 100 th/s boxes and ~30,000 jalapeno boxes to go online at the same time for you to imply only price matters in this post is just flat out wrong it is totally dependent on how many of each box you plan to ship in a given time frame. |
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DutchBrat
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June 23, 2012, 09:07:14 AM |
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BFL, approximately how many SC 1TH units do you expect or will be ready to sell in october? will it be worth getting coffee warmers at all?
The relative cost per mh/s isn't too far off from the Jalapeno to the Mini Rig SC. This being the case, it's not really any particular threat if someone has a 1 TH/s mini rig vs a shopping bag of of Jalapeno's. The Jalapeno's will still be relevant as compared to their purchase price. Purchase price comparability is jack shit compared to their comparable percentage of the hashing power you will put online with them th/s boxes, those are the main driver of the massive hash rate potential increase. If you put 100 th/s boxes online and 1000 jalapeno's (your shopping bag full analogy, BTW must be big shopping bag you need ~300 of them for it to work) then the th/s boxes are a ~28:1 advantage over the jalapeno or in other words the comparably priced mh/s jalapeno is now worth 1/28 the mh/s hashing power of a th/s box on the network. For it to be equal you would need 100 th/s boxes and ~30,000 jalapeno boxes to go online at the same time for you to imply only price matters in this post is just flat out wrong it is totally dependent on how many of each box you plan to ship in a given time frame. You really expect 100 1th/s rigs to be ordered ($3 mln worth) ? Were there 200 minirigs ordered when they first were announced ? Pethaps with some glbse pooling of money people other than Giga will buy 1 or 2 of those puppies I would be surprised to see more than 15 - 20 rigs be pre–ordered, but def 200 - 500 of the singles and many more jalapenos |
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Luceo
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Per aspera ad astra!
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June 23, 2012, 09:12:40 AM |
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I concur with a lot of the posts here, please open pre-orders at a set time, for a set period, and make sure that everybody who orders in that period has their products shipped simultaneously.
Ideally, limit the value of those orders per customer to ensure that you do the best you can not to be a part of a 51% attack.
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Bitcoin Oz
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June 23, 2012, 09:12:53 AM |
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My coffee is getting cold.
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atsoat
Newbie
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Activity: 23
Merit: 0
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June 23, 2012, 09:48:25 AM |
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There are so many unknowns in this, that for the protection of both sides, you need to clarify what the cancellation terms are going to be.
Especially if you are still considering any kind of lottery style random prioritisation of orders - whereby people may place extra orders with the intention of cancelling the lottery losers.
Assuming the product development is successful and you actually reach the shipping stage, the rate at which you ship is going to change the payback time, and (the more sane) people will redo their sums and reconsider their orders.
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coretechs
Donator
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 362
Merit: 250
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June 23, 2012, 02:50:44 PM |
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It looks like mini-rig purchasers are still screwed the most, unless they get priority for upgrading. Based on the the order list thread some people are scheduled to receive their mini-rig in August. 2 months later a handful of jalapenos will equal the hashing power and then the mini-rig owner will be forced to upgrade (shelling out another $15k) or lose out entirely. If they do decide to upgrade and end up in some order lottery it's really gonna hurt. Seems like punishment for early customers who put their faith/$ in BFL.
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