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Author Topic: Winklevoss ETF update, what does this mean?  (Read 9515 times)
bitkilo
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January 02, 2015, 05:50:00 AM
 #41

If I remember correctly the original plan was to have a share worth 1/5th of a bitcoin, but with that many shares they must be trying to make a share worth x millibits instead.  Smart move IMO.  Single Bitcoins costing several hundred dollars is a huge psychological barrier for a lot of tech inept investors.  

its still a 5th of a bitcoin, they are releasing 1million shares..

if you do the maths, its the 200,000bitcoin that the winklevoss have on multiple times publicised that they have bought in 2012-2013. so i see nothing wrong.
these bitcoin/shares are cut down into 20 blocks of 10,000btc=50,000 shares which they call 'baskets'

other whales are free to purchase 10,000btc from wherever they like and then secure those into the winklevoss trust, to then increase the number of shares available for sell publicly
If a 'whale' was to buy 300,000 btc = 30 blocks and put this into the winklevoss EFT,
Who would then hold the majority vote in company matters?

Or would it just be smarter for them to set up their own EFT, that would cost a lot in itself, the winklevoss twin have spent a packet on setting up there's.

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January 02, 2015, 05:58:43 AM
 #42

Who would then hold the majority vote in company matters?
At the risk of stating the obvious, nobody. The company administering the ETF is not publicly traded, and shares in the ETF are not shares in the company.

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January 02, 2015, 06:08:16 AM
 #43

Who would then hold the majority vote in company matters?
At the risk of stating the obvious, nobody. The company administering the ETF is not publicly traded, and shares in the ETF are not shares in the company.
Thanks that clears it up, i dont know much about EFT but sort of thought it wouldnt be shares in the company.

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January 02, 2015, 09:57:11 AM
 #44

What if twins' coins were hacked?

The prospectus says that they will be kept in cold storage (printed wallets stored in vaults).

aha ...  Grin ... so, in real world, you can exchange ETF gold bond for physical gold ?  Cheesy At the same price ... ? (trap)

You, personally, almost certainly cannot, but it is possible, yes. In fact, I know of at least one case when it was done.

It will be the same with this ETF. It would be possible to exchange ETF shares for bitcoins, but most people won't be able to afford it, because it will be doable only in multiples of 50.000 shares.

Read the prospectus.

Anyone that considers investing in their ETF certainly should verify whether or not they are insured against such theft when determining their risk exposure.

This is not very clear from the prospectus. On the one hand, there is explicit language that there will be no insurance of the bitcoins. But maybe the meaning is that the bitcoins are not insured the way deposits are insured by the FDIC. On the other hand, there is language that the custodian would take whatever insurance means he deems appropriate and the terms may change.

The fact that GLD tracks gold doesn't prove it has any gold.  It only proves the manipulators are paying attention and staying active.

This statement suggests that you have no clue how GLD tracks the price of gold.

Quote
If GLD can sell off the physical gold, as many believe they've done

and they are wrong.

Quote
what would keep COIN from secretly selling off some bitcoin from the fund?

The same thing. With time, the ability of COIN to track the bitcoin price will deteriorate significantly. The problem is that this will become obvious only significant time after the bitcoins are gone.

However, they can show transparency by publishing the public keys of their wallets - so that anyone can check that they indeed still own the bitcoins. Unfortunately, it is not clear to me from the prospectus whether they would do that. In fact, there is some language that says that both the private and the public keys will be kept confidential.

Quote
Liquidity?  Interesting.  The FED's wrongful manipulation by "injecting liquidity" by printing up fresh dollars is one of the problems bitcoin might partially solve.  It seems almost dirty to talk about injecting liquidity in bitcoin.

I don't think that you understand what this word means. It is not "injecting liquidity in bitcoin" as in "printing more bitcoins". It is "injecting liquidity in the bitcoin markets", as in "bringing more buyers and sellers".

Suppose that you own 1 BTC and desperately need US dollars to pay your rent, so you want to sell it. But, because there are few buyers on the market (the market is illiquid), you can find only one buyer who is willing to pay you no more than $250, despite the fact that the last transaction completed at $300. Since you are forced to sell (you need USD), you take the transaction and the price collapses to $250. Next come someone who really wants to own 1 BTC - but there is only one seller and he demands $350 for it. Since there is no other choice, the buyer agrees. Bang, the BTC price goes from $250 to $350. Huge volatility, because the market is illiquid (relatively few market participants).

Basically this means they are offering shares to other investors. In other words, BTC are exchanged for fiat indirectly, when investors buy these shares.

Not really. It just means that it transfers ownership of the bitcoins owned by the twins to current holders of US dollars - once. You can turn the argument on its head and say that it is "bad" because it is equivalent to the twins selling their bitcoins. But it would be just as incorrect.

You must always keep in mind how a tracking ETF works. If the demand for shares is larger than the demand for bitcoins, the ETF custodian creates ETF shares out of nothing and sells them to the public. Then he uses the money from the sale to buy bitcoins. This drops the price of the shares (increased supply) and ups the demand for bitcoins (increased demand), bringing the two in equilibrium again.

The same procedure works in the other direction. If people start buying bitcoins faster than the ETF shares, the custodian sells some bitcoins and uses the money to buy back ETF shares and to destroy them. This increases the supply of bitcoins (putting a downward pressure on their price) and increases the demand for the ETF shares (putting an upward pressure on their price), bringing the two in equilibrium.

Note that it doesn't matter whether the price of bitcoins is going up, down or sideways. All that matters is the difference in demand between bitcoins and ETF shares. By creating and destroying shares and buying and selling bitcoins, the ETF custodian makes sure that the prices of the two are in sync - i.e., the ETF is doing its job of tracking the bitcoin price.

Of course, this mechanism will break down if the custodian has no bitcoins. Exactly the same logic applies to the gold tracking ETF.

If a 'whale' was to buy 300,000 btc = 30 blocks and put this into the winklevoss EFT,
Who would then hold the majority vote in company matters?

An ETF is not a stock. Owning shares of it does not let you vote on how it is run.
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January 02, 2015, 12:41:59 PM
 #45

The fact that GLD tracks gold doesn't prove it has any gold.  It only proves the manipulators are paying attention and staying active.

This statement suggests that you have no clue how GLD tracks the price of gold.

Quote
If GLD can sell off the physical gold, as many believe they've done

and they are wrong.

You're very confident.  But we're talking about different things
You're talking about how the system works.
I'm talking about fraud by people in positions of power over the system.

More than a couple economists and knowledgeable commentators have proposed that both Fort Knox and the NY Fed's vault are empty of gold and so GLD's gold is being sold off to keep the price of gold low.

Germany recently demanded we give them back the gold they had left in the NY Fed's vault for safe keeping.  The US said it would take years to give it back (why?) and only shipped back a tiny percent.  But the gold they shipped back wasn't the old bars the Germans had deposited, it was new bars.  Why the change?  Some say Germany's old bars have already been sold off, so they had to rush out and buy a little new gold.

Why sell off the gold?  The Fed and the US Treasury know that the price of gold is the canary in the mine.  If it's price goes up, everyone will know the dollar is in trouble.  They MUST keep the price low to keep everyone assured that the "recovery" is proceeding.  That's mostly accomplished with naked shorting of gold on the future's market, but they have to have enough physical gold available to meet demand for the scheme to work, hence they steal from GLD's vault.


Obviously the bitcoin in COIN doesn't provide the same incentive, nor would it have the same level of powerful interests.  So it's probably safe.  I was just wondering out loud.

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January 02, 2015, 01:04:54 PM
 #46

What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed  Grin
They don't run it themselves and pay someone for the security probably.

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January 02, 2015, 01:26:50 PM
 #47

good step concerning the current price

1. sell company shares for fiat
2. convert fiat to btc
3. wait for rise
4. sell btc for fiat
5. announce +10 000% company value rise
6. sell shares more expensively

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January 02, 2015, 01:46:18 PM
 #48

Bitcoin has no real value in the short term. In contrast to govt. papers, it has value while there's demand and today we can see no real demand.
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January 03, 2015, 10:20:16 AM
 #49

Bitcoin has no real value in the short term. In contrast to govt. papers, it has value while there's demand and today we can see no real demand.

There's demand, enough to maintain the current price point.
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January 03, 2015, 11:03:26 AM
 #50

You're very confident.  But we're talking about different things
You're talking about how the system works.

I am confident because I know how the system works. You obviously do not, so you engage in groundless speculations.

Quote
I'm talking about fraud by people in positions of power over the system.

I am talking about the mathematics of supply and demand.

Quote
More than a couple economists and knowledgeable commentators have proposed that both Fort Knox and the NY Fed's vault are empty

Those are groundless speculations. The only facts we know for sure is that the US gold reserves have not be audited for a very long time. Saying that the gold isn't there is a groundless speculation, just like saying that the gold is there. We don't know which is the case, because of the lack of audit.

Quote
GLD's gold is being sold off to keep the price of gold low.

This, however, is pure bullshit. If the GLD custodian wasn't buying and selling the gold it claims to buy and sell, GLD wouldn't have been able to track the gold price. And in order to sell gold, you must have it. Plus, GLD regularly (daily or weekly, don't remember) publishes the serial numbers of all the gold bars in their custody.

Only a total ignoramus can claim that GLD does not have the gold it claims to have.

Quote
Germany recently demanded we give them back the gold they had left in the NY Fed's vault for safe keeping.  The US said it would take years to give it back (why?) and only shipped back a tiny percent.

Germany recently inspected its holdings at the NY Fed, was satisfied by what it saw, and decided not to press for repatriation of its gold.

Quote
But the gold they shipped back wasn't the old bars the Germans had deposited, it was new bars.  Why the change?

Why not? Gold is fungible. Germany owns gold there, not pieces of art.

Quote
Some say Germany's old bars have already been sold off, so they had to rush out and buy a little new gold.

And some say this is total bullshit. Venezuela successfully repatriated all its gold and it is not exactly a friend of the USA. The Netherlands recently successfully repatriated all its its gold. Apparently, the gold was there.

Quote
The Fed and the US Treasury know that the price of gold is the canary in the mine.  If it's price goes up, everyone will know the dollar is in trouble.

This is bullshit spewed by the gold promoters. Don't believe them, or you'll lose money. There are much more efficient ways of manipulating the currency markets.

Quote
They MUST keep the price low to keep everyone assured that the "recovery" is proceeding.

Except a few crazies, nobody cares about the gold price. That the "recovery" is fake is obvious from the falling labor force, the stagnating household income, and a zillion of other things. The gold price is falling not because of some dark conspiracy but because the dollar is going up. (Check the gold price in Russian rubles or Japanese yen.) And the dollar is going up because the global economy has started falling apart at the periphery and capital is rushing into the perceived safe haven, which is the world reserve currency.

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That's mostly accomplished with naked shorting of gold on the future's market, but they have to have enough physical gold available to meet demand for the scheme to work, hence they steal from GLD's vault.

Nonsense.
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January 03, 2015, 11:12:15 AM
 #51


It means nothing. 

It's all bullshite.
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January 03, 2015, 11:32:15 AM
 #52

Quote
GLD's gold is being sold off to keep the price of gold low.

This, however, is pure bullshit. If the GLD custodian wasn't buying and selling the gold it claims to buy and sell, GLD wouldn't have been able to track the gold price. And in order to sell gold, you must have it. Plus, GLD regularly (daily or weekly, don't remember) publishes the serial numbers of all the gold bars in their custody.

I am not saying that you are wrong, but why would they need to have the gold to track the price?
If I understand, what you are trying to say, then they have to buy and sell it them self to see the price. Couldn't they just look it up else where?

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January 03, 2015, 12:16:55 PM
 #53

Realized they invested into something that isn't an investment and are trying to cashout early.

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January 03, 2015, 12:24:34 PM
 #54

If I remember correctly the original plan was to have a share worth 1/5th of a bitcoin, but with that many shares they must be trying to make a share worth x millibits instead.  Smart move IMO.  Single Bitcoins costing several hundred dollars is a huge psychological barrier for a lot of tech inept investors.  

its still a 5th of a bitcoin, they are releasing 1million shares..

if you do the maths, its the 200,000bitcoin that the winklevoss have on multiple times publicised that they have bought in 2012-2013. so i see nothing wrong.
these bitcoin/shares are cut down into 20 blocks of 10,000btc=50,000 shares which they call 'baskets'

other whales are free to purchase 10,000btc from wherever they like and then secure those into the winklevoss trust, to then increase the number of shares available for sell publicly
If a 'whale' was to buy 300,000 btc = 30 blocks and put this into the winklevoss EFT,
Who would then hold the majority vote in company matters?

Or would it just be smarter for them to set up their own EFT, that would cost a lot in itself, the winklevoss twin have spent a packet on setting up there's.

vote in company matters??

the shares are not ownership of any company.. they are shares of a bitcoin. thepoint of the trust is this..

imagine it as a office.. that trades shares. to be a dealer/salesmen in the office you have to own baskets of bitcoins, and then you can manage the ownership of the shares of the bitcoin between your customers. you do not have any voting rights of the office. you are just sat in the office managing the share transaction information of the buys and sells of your basket(s)

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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January 03, 2015, 01:15:40 PM
 #55

Bitcoin has no real value in the short term. In contrast to govt. papers, it has value while there's demand and today we can see no real demand.

There's demand, enough to maintain the current price point.

Maybe (which I doubt, especially if I try to track the overall daily buy/sell volume).  Even if there's some demand "to maintain the current price point", it's not enough to maintain growth. For an ETF, capital appreciation is a top priority objective. At the moment, keeping Bitcoin as an asset in a large investment portfolio for a manager is like walking on a thin ice. But who knows what will happen this year, it's just started!   Smiley
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January 03, 2015, 05:41:33 PM
 #56

Huh interesting. I really am anxious for them to get things going! I really don't grasp the whole concept and it puzzles me that no one even knows when/if(!!!) this thing is going to start. It may very well be the exact investment vehicle the big money needs, but we shouldn't put all our hope in it. I'm afraid that people overestimate its influence.

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January 03, 2015, 07:28:33 PM
 #57

I am confident because I know how the system works. You obviously do not, so you engage in groundless speculations.
Some of it is speculation, but it's not my speculation.  I've been reading and listening to a fair number of people for several months and have come to respect them.

And it's not groundless.  They cite specific reasons for the positions they hold.

I know nothing about commodities trading, but one thing I hear over and over again is that someone is shorting gold and silver on the commodities market with such extremely large contracts that they overwhelm the market.  Gold should never be in backwardation because gold is money yet has no debasement risk.  But they say gold is frequently in backwardation, not contango as it should be.  This means knowledgeable people are fearful that there will be no gold available in the future so they're willing to pay more to get it right now.

You dismiss the German gold incident, but the fact that the Germans decided to drop their demand has little to do with gold and everything to do with politics.  The fact remains, they asked us to return their gold and we said we couldn't.  Couldn't.


I am talking about the mathematics of supply and demand.
Exactly.  They can drive the price down with commodities shorting, which dries up most demand, but there MUST be some actual physical gold for sale to handle the remaining demand or the manipulation would fall apart.


Only a total ignoramus can claim that GLD does not have the gold it claims to have.
Saying "total ignoramus" reveals emotion.

All right, just one quote.  James Turk and John Rubino, in their book The Money Bubble, discussed how western central banks, including the Fed, are leasing gold to bullion banks, "which sell the gold on the open market."  Then on page 231:
Quote
If just three countries bought more gold than was mined in 2013, where did the gold come from to satisfy all the world's other buyers?  Some came from GLD, which was looted by the bullion banks.  Most of that metal was shipped to Swiss refiners, which turned the ETF's 400oz bars into 1kilo bars (China's preferred size) ...
Are James Turk and John Rubino "total ignoramuses"?

I've obviously struck an emotional cord.  I wonder why.  Let me do some of my own speculating.  One of these probably fits you:
  • You work for a big bank or the Fed or Treasury Dept. or somewhere else in the cartel and you are paid to tamp down anything that could reveal truth.  Or you're not paid, but feel emotionally connected to the need to keep the dollar supreme regardless of the truth.  Or
  • You have a great deal of wealth tied up in GLD or another PM ETF and you feel trapped and you protect yourself by denial and you lash out at anyone who reveals the truth of your desperate situation.  Or
  • You thought you were an expert who knew more than almost anyone else, but were caught up short by the deceitfulness of the Fed and the banking cartel.  You're now starting to accept the truth, but are lashing back a little anyway.
.
I hate the deceitfulness too.  And I'm going to get hurt along with everyone else when the collapse comes, but I've noticed that it's not just a few crazies that are saying the things I'm repeating here.
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January 03, 2015, 07:40:09 PM
 #58

What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed  Grin
They don't run it themselves and pay someone for the security probably.
Either way there will be a risk of theft of the fund's bitcoin (as noted in the prospectus). The security is also going to be a larger of the fund's expenses

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January 03, 2015, 07:43:35 PM
 #59

What if twins' coins were hacked? This is the single biggest risk that needs to be addressed  Grin
They don't run it themselves and pay someone for the security probably.
Either way there will be a risk of theft of the fund's bitcoin (as noted in the prospectus). The security is also going to be a larger of the fund's expenses

But how big is this risk? How would they address this risk? The most inherent risk would be someone guessing or stealing the private key(s) to the addresses holding the BTC, right? I mean a fund of that order of magnitude better oughta know their stuff...

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January 03, 2015, 07:44:29 PM
 #60

It means that the next bull run is about to commence. The nasdaq sees trillions of dollars in volume yearly. Just dec 31st alone saw 58B traded on the nasdaq for the DAY!!!!

With that kind of liquidity and eager investors to dabble in btc were sure to see some serious gains in 2015.

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