A Theory on what pirateat40 is doing

[smoothie]

You're assuming his scheme will last 4 months...  Are people seriously expecting a 7% return on their investment per week?  LOL

the fact is ,he is paying these rates at the moment and you are still free to walk at anytime with you coins + interest

how long it can last is anyones guess ,i believe market manipulation is a major factor and as long as pirate has an enormous  share of  BTC  then he can continue to apply the scheme for a while yet

(that doesnt mean im saying he wont run with all the coin at some stage ,just not yet     )

If history is any guide then one of three things is likely to happen:

1) Interest decreases to a sustainable level as the market adjusts and reacts to the trader with all the coins.  This is the best case scenario.

2) The market moves against the trader in a way the trader didn't anticipate, realising a large loss of customer bitcoins.  Not everyone can be paid out.

3) The trader disappears / gets hacked / whatever and the customers lose their bitcoins.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  It's not really different this time.  It's not a new paradigm where all the old rules no longer apply.

Watching the market action with interest.

+1

Pirates operation will have to end sooner rather than later. Just like Vladimir said once...you could in fact get all the bitcoins (21million) in three years with just starting with...i think it was 1000BTC and compound that for 3 years at 7.5%....

yeah yeah yeah his interest rate will go down soon...and will likely go down again 1, 2, or 3 months after that again.

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[Mageant]

You're assuming his scheme will last 4 months...  Are people seriously expecting a 7% return on their investment per week?  LOL

the fact is ,he is paying these rates at the moment and you are still free to walk at anytime with you coins + interest

how long it can last is anyones guess ,i believe market manipulation is a major factor and as long as pirate has an enormous  share of  BTC  then he can continue to apply the scheme for a while yet

(that doesnt mean im saying he wont run with all the coin at some stage ,just not yet     )

If history is any guide then one of three things is likely to happen:

1) Interest decreases to a sustainable level as the market adjusts and reacts to the trader with all the coins.  This is the best case scenario.

2) The market moves against the trader in a way the trader didn't anticipate, realising a large loss of customer bitcoins.  Not everyone can be paid out.

3) The trader disappears / gets hacked / whatever and the customers lose their bitcoins.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  It's not really different this time.  It's not a new paradigm where all the old rules no longer apply.

Watching the market action with interest.

+1

Pirates operation will have to end sooner rather than later. Just like Vladimir said once...you could in fact get all the bitcoins (21million) in three years with just starting with...i think it was 1000BTC and compound that for 3 years at 7.5%....

yeah yeah yeah his interest rate will go down soon...and will likely go down again 1, 2, or 3 months after that again.

Another possibility is that he stops accepting new deposits and pays out all interest. Then he can go on indefinitely.

[CoinCidental]

You're assuming his scheme will last 4 months...  Are people seriously expecting a 7% return on their investment per week?  LOL

the fact is ,he is paying these rates at the moment and you are still free to walk at anytime with you coins + interest

how long it can last is anyones guess ,i believe market manipulation is a major factor and as long as pirate has an enormous  share of  BTC  then he can continue to apply the scheme for a while yet

(that doesnt mean im saying he wont run with all the coin at some stage ,just not yet     )

If history is any guide then one of three things is likely to happen:

1) Interest decreases to a sustainable level as the market adjusts and reacts to the trader with all the coins.  This is the best case scenario.

2) The market moves against the trader in a way the trader didn't anticipate, realising a large loss of customer bitcoins.  Not everyone can be paid out.

3) The trader disappears / gets hacked / whatever and the customers lose their bitcoins.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  It's not really different this time.  It's not a new paradigm where all the old rules no longer apply.

Watching the market action with interest.

+1

Pirates operation will have to end sooner rather than later. Just like Vladimir said once...you could in fact get all the bitcoins (21million) in three years with just starting with...i think it was 1000BTC and compound that for 3 years at 7.5%....

yeah yeah yeah his interest rate will go down soon...and will likely go down again 1, 2, or 3 months after that again.

Another possibility is that he stops accepting new deposits and pays out all interest. Then he can go on indefinitely.

I dont know if i follow this correctly .........
everyone gets bought out of the pyramid with their stake  + interest  but pirate stays in alone to reap further benefits  ?

[Vladimir]

[lots of BS skipped]
 He has now effectively hedged his downward risk.
[lots of BS skipped]

This is a new kind of hedge. Let's now borrow at 3000% APR to hedge some insignificant risk. This is some genius hedging here, lets pay 3000$ to remove risk of losing 100$ Right! Here is a simpler option, get idiots greedy brainless "investors" to give you BTC, sell half on open market, keep fiat, pay the rest back to those greedy brainless "investors" in weekly instalments  until there is no money left.

Now look, no need to waste a few pages to explain some convoluted unworkable and completely pointless scheme. Just one-two sentences and it is all simple and clear.

[Vladimir]

I have neither money nor desire nor need to make any bets. All "bets" I wanted to make are made already (long before most of you heard of Bitcoin for the first time).

[hazek]

I have a new theory!

Pirate is allowing ovr X million dollars of new money to enter the market below 10$ ( by keeping the price down as much as possible as he buys over 1 million coins )

once he's done his investors (wtv you wana cal them) will simply hold on to over 1million coins and watch the market naturally rise to over 50$ each!

I'm sorry to be this blunt but your theory is down right stupid.

Not only is he borrowing BTC that could be on an exchange sitting in an ask wall, suppressing the price but he is borrowing to pay back interest at a rate of double what he borrowed in just 10 weeks. So not only is there less supply available for exchange then there could be otherwise but there's even more demand because he needs to buy BTC to pay interest.

And now under these circumstances you think that his tiny little wall of 30kBTC is going to stop the price from rising? Is that why we went from $5 to $9.2 in the last month and a half? Is this him being successful?? 


Please, give it a rest already, whether money laundering or buying in at a certain price NO THEORY MAKES SENSE ANYMORE GIVEN THE RECENT PRICE CHANGE.

[CoinCidental]

I have a new theory!

Pirate is allowing ovr X million dollars of new money to enter the market below 10$ ( by keeping the price down as much as possible as he buys over 1 million coins )

once he's done his investors (wtv you wana cal them) will simply hold on to over 1million coins and watch the market naturally rise to over 50$ each!

And now under these circumstances you think that his tiny little wall of 30kBTC is going to stop the price from rising?

how do we know exactly how many coins he has to manipulate the market/force trends and make walls  ? I would imagine its waaay higher than 30k btc

[hazek]

Nice of you to cut out the most important part of my post, but just so that we can keep the context of my post you quoted I'll post it again.

I have a new theory!

Pirate is allowing ovr X million dollars of new money to enter the market below 10$ ( by keeping the price down as much as possible as he buys over 1 million coins )

once he's done his investors (wtv you wana cal them) will simply hold on to over 1million coins and watch the market naturally rise to over 50$ each!

I'm sorry to be this blunt but your theory is down right stupid.

Not only is he borrowing BTC that could be on an exchange sitting in an ask wall, suppressing the price but he is borrowing to pay back interest at a rate of double what he borrowed in just 10 weeks. So not only is there less supply available for exchange then there could be otherwise but there's even more demand because he needs to buy BTC to pay interest.

And now under these circumstances you think that his tiny little wall of 30kBTC is going to stop the price from rising? Is that why we went from $5 to $9.2 in the last month and a half? Is this him being successful??  


Please, give it a rest already, whether money laundering or buying in at a certain price NO THEORY MAKES SENSE ANYMORE GIVEN THE RECENT PRICE CHANGE.

As for your question, I think it's pretty simple: have you ever seen a bigger ask wall that could possibly be his? Remember that the theory says that he doesn't actually sell these coins, just display them as a threat in order to suppress the price.

[CoinCidental]

Nice of you to cut out the most important part of my post, but just so that we can keep the context of my post you quoted I'll post it again.

I have a new theory!

Pirate is allowing ovr X million dollars of new money to enter the market below 10$ ( by keeping the price down as much as possible as he buys over 1 million coins )

once he's done his investors (wtv you wana cal them) will simply hold on to over 1million coins and watch the market naturally rise to over 50$ each!

I'm sorry to be this blunt but your theory is down right stupid.

Not only is he borrowing BTC that could be on an exchange sitting in an ask wall, suppressing the price but he is borrowing to pay back interest at a rate of double what he borrowed in just 10 weeks. So not only is there less supply available for exchange then there could be otherwise but there's even more demand because he needs to buy BTC to pay interest.

And now under these circumstances you think that his tiny little wall of 30kBTC is going to stop the price from rising? Is that why we went from $5 to $9.2 in the last month and a half? Is this him being successful??  


Please, give it a rest already, whether money laundering or buying in at a certain price NO THEORY MAKES SENSE ANYMORE GIVEN THE RECENT PRICE CHANGE.

As for your question, I think it's pretty simple: have you ever seen a bigger ask wall that could possibly be his? Remember that the theory says that he doesn't actually sell these coins, just display them as a threat in order to suppress the price.

the way i see it ,if you have the most of anything you can manipulate its market value
nobody knows how many coins pirate is effectively in control off so he could easily
create highs and lows to buy and sell at his own advantage (if he has shitloads of btc )

I dont have his accounts so i dont know but i know the money/btc  i get every week is real

the only thing i dont know is where its coming from /ponzi new investors /trading stock markets ,money laundering for drug cartels etc etc  or how long he can keep doing it

its interesting to watch anyway, but dont bet what you cant lose 

[Mageant]

You're assuming his scheme will last 4 months...  Are people seriously expecting a 7% return on their investment per week?  LOL

the fact is ,he is paying these rates at the moment and you are still free to walk at anytime with you coins + interest

how long it can last is anyones guess ,i believe market manipulation is a major factor and as long as pirate has an enormous  share of  BTC  then he can continue to apply the scheme for a while yet

(that doesnt mean im saying he wont run with all the coin at some stage ,just not yet     )

If history is any guide then one of three things is likely to happen:

1) Interest decreases to a sustainable level as the market adjusts and reacts to the trader with all the coins.  This is the best case scenario.

2) The market moves against the trader in a way the trader didn't anticipate, realising a large loss of customer bitcoins.  Not everyone can be paid out.

3) The trader disappears / gets hacked / whatever and the customers lose their bitcoins.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  It's not really different this time.  It's not a new paradigm where all the old rules no longer apply.

Watching the market action with interest.

+1

Pirates operation will have to end sooner rather than later. Just like Vladimir said once...you could in fact get all the bitcoins (21million) in three years with just starting with...i think it was 1000BTC and compound that for 3 years at 7.5%....

yeah yeah yeah his interest rate will go down soon...and will likely go down again 1, 2, or 3 months after that again.

Another possibility is that he stops accepting new deposits and pays out all interest. Then he can go on indefinitely.

I dont know if i follow this correctly .........
everyone gets bought out of the pyramid with their stake  + interest  but pirate stays in alone to reap further benefits  ?

No, he just keeps the size of his deposits stable.

Let's say he has 300k BTC in deposits.  Then he just keeps that amount constant and pays out 18k BTC interest (or whatever) per month to the lenders.

The interest does not get reinvested *and* he doesn't accept any *new* deposits.

Then he can go on forever.

[mp420]

The reason I'm certain he's a scammer is that if he's the genius enterpreneur he's implying he is, he would not borrow bitcoins at 3000% annual rate but he'd get a loan in fiat from a bank with far less than 10% annual interest rate. Even if his business is not legitimate if he's as resourceful as he lets on, he can work around that and get the loan papers signed.

And voilà; he can keep all the insane returns. He borrows $1M and in a year he has $50M or more. (With $1M he could have bought at least 250kBTC. In retrospect, that would have been a succesful strategy even if he did not have any kind of business plan; by now he could have paid off all of the initial loan and still have $1M worth of bitcoins.)

[hazek]

Exactly, hardly any amount of risk is worth sacrificing 3300% per annum of profit as he claims he does by using other people's money as a hedge against risk.

[Vladimir]

As I said, paying 3000$ to mitigate some risk of loss of 100$ is just plain insane. Whoever thinks that this is a genius plan needs to think again.

[bulanula]

No way this is a ponzi guys.

He would not want to do anything illegal since his identity is public.

Oh wait ... "but Bitcoin".

Just hope GPUMAX coins won't be blacklisted or some other crap after this folds.

Carry on pirate !

[zyk]

what should fold then?

[ArticMine]

what should fold then?

A sharp rise in the BTC / USD price particularly if his ask walls are bought out and the price rise is driven by well capitalized long term investors as opposed to short term high risk speculators. This can set up pirateat40 for a brutal Bitcoin short squeeze.

[smoothie]

No way this is a ponzi guys.

He would not want to do anything illegal since his identity is public.

Oh wait ... "but Bitcoin".

Just hope GPUMAX coins won't be blacklisted or some other crap after this folds.

Carry on pirate !

And we should listen you because you have a scammer tag? LOL!

[sunnankar]

There is a serious risk here. A long term well capitalized investor who does not mind paying a small premium say 10% - 15% over market comes is out of the blue and buys out his ask wall. Now he is effectively short not only the BTC sold to the client but also the BTC from the now sold ask wall in a rising market. This is when the fun and the real risk of a short squeeze starts.

There is no need here for a ponzi or any kind of money laundering to explain this theory.

By the way I have deduced all of this from pirateat40's own comments, the comments of both his supporters and detractors and correlating these comments with the historical market behavior, as part of my own due diligence on Bitcoin.

Very plausible explanation how it could be done without it being a ponzi.

For those who did not see my 9 June 2012 post, when BTC was around $5.50, then I would recommend it in light of these two comments.

[jimbobway]

There is a serious risk here. A long term well capitalized investor who does not mind paying a small premium say 10% - 15% over market comes is out of the blue and buys out his ask wall. Now he is effectively short not only the BTC sold to the client but also the BTC from the now sold ask wall in a rising market. This is when the fun and the real risk of a short squeeze starts.

There is no need here for a ponzi or any kind of money laundering to explain this theory.

By the way I have deduced all of this from pirateat40's own comments, the comments of both his supporters and detractors and correlating these comments with the historical market behavior, as part of my own due diligence on Bitcoin.

Very plausible explanation how it could be done without it being a ponzi.

For those who did not see my 9 June 2012 post, when BTC was around $5.50, then I would recommend it in light of these two comments.

Thanks for pointing back to your posts.  But, can you connect the dots for us and tell us exactly what you think is going on?  I imagine you believe some HNWIs are investing in Bitcoin through a middleman you know.  And you are suggesting that perhaps this will take out pirate?

[sunnankar]

But, can you connect the dots for us and tell us exactly what you think is going on?

No.