A Theory on what pirateat40 is doing

[naima53]

I wonder who will be wearing a bathing costume when the tide recedes?

Catch the moment!

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[Vladimir]

The reason Pirateat40 responded to Serge is because it draws attention to the wrong side of the problem, the one that takes more time to discuss.

Serge, an idea for the most profitable enterprise of all time is not the point of discussion here. The question is why would he continue to share it! Sure, in the beginning he might have lacked funds. But now? There's just no way any sensible person would now try to get as many investors as possible!

This argument kills it in one go. All counters have been quickly debunked. Wake up and help spreading the word already.

and this is undeniable

[cytokine]

If pirate ends up running not a Ponzi but instead does what he says: selling BTC at high premium, Bitcoin could be taken for a nice ride within next few years.

All Ponzi speculation aside, we know this theory has a merit and high probability it may be one. Are there any other plausible explanations to pirate's operation with such great returns?

At first I couldn't imagine who would want to buy bitcoins at high premium and why. do you know?! Besides drug cartels, money laundry and some three letter agency questionable special covert ops funding?

What if there are smart and wealthy individuals who realized great potential of Bitcoin and decided to get in. Their target may be significant amount of bitcoins without driving exchange rate through the roof and they are ready to invest several million dollars. Although they could have gone through exchanges and probably buy bitcoins even at $10-20/BTC wouldn't it make sense to setup bitcoin lending operation and purchase at 10-15% premium all sub $10 bitcoins - given that they don't want to spend significant amounts of time on exchanges to acquire bitcoins at slow steady pace. They want to sign a check each week and get their bitcoins. Here comes the pirate and ready to sell at 10-15% premium. Pirate alone or conspiring with these individuals to keep bitcoin rate as sane prices (sub $10/BTC for instance) throughout their acquisition period. Bitcoin prices at $4-7 seem fair and pretty stable. Sub $4-3 prices - and everyone wants in so the rate isn't stable; over $8 and there is a risk of another bitcoin hype and explosion which could potentially get out of their control.
Once these individuals hit their target and complete acquisition they will start telling about Bitcoin to all their other wealthy buddies or simply start a new hype, or they don't even have to do anything if they have managed to acquire all available sub $10 bitcoins and the price will naturally start to rise (through the roof) to mid double or maybe even up to triple digits.

$5-6/BTC + 10-15%   better than over $10 BTC when purchasing, is it not?

Could this possibly work while providing great interest rates to lenders at the same time manipulating exchanges with great psychological walls to keep bitcoin prices as low rates for time being? Or it doesn't make any sense? What do you guys think?

Oh boy!!!  Someone is stepping close to treasure.  ATTACK!!!!!

I've been avoiding commenting on this stuff because it's best practice not to discuss your competition, especially with 7%/week which no-one else can possibly compete with. However, I think the above is the most reasonable explanation yet, but with 2 missing pieces.

First, why pay such high rates to investors? It could be that pirate saves in USD not in BTC ( because he isn't 100% convinced that BTC is going to be successful long term ), and therefore it makes sense to pay out to his investors so that his volume can increase, thereby earning him increasing amounts of USD with subsequent transactions.

Second, why does pirate not allow investors to change their deposit address? Probably because one of the reasons he can charge a premium is because he promises not just large amounts of coins at a good rate, but also because he can promise ( unlike the exchanges ) that the coins cannot be traced back to the purchaser. I don't know the exact mechanics, but tracing deposit addresses and also acquiring fresh coins via gpumax would both help to achieve the the goal of anonymous coins. It's also possible that the purchasers like to buy in blocks of coins, each "independent" of the other block ( I have talked with several very wealthy people who wish to buy BTC, and this is exactly what they wanted to do, so that if it was ever discovered they owned a certain btc address, they would have backups that aren't tied to it. I'm talking about protection against the potential for an all-out war against BTC by the Feds. )

Of course, existing mixing services can provide this protection, but not if your goal is to buy millions of dollars worth. I can personally buy maybe 15K USD worth per month outside of the exchanges and have it mixed properly for about a 5% total commission rate, but nothing beyond that, and not below that rate. And I've shopped around a lot.

In any event, you won't hear anything more from me on this, but I just couldn't help but give out my 2 cents into the crowd since I find the topic very fascinating. However, I'll also take this opportunity to make a shameless plug for my fund, which is 100% pirate-free so it's perfect for skeptics. As for myself, I'm agnostic on it being a scam vs being real; as with any investment, investor beware. But I never invest in things when I don't know what the business is doing as a rule, since my fund always errs on the side of prudence. Many thanks.

[organofcorti]

Regardless of whether or not Pirate is running a Ponzi scheme, all of the posted ideas of how he could be making his money work fantastically, and I'm now living on a small Caribbean Island I own.

Just PM me if you want a 7% / week interest bearing account. This won't expose you to any risk of BS&T failing, but still provide a great return! In between sunbaking, and sipping mojitos and daiquiris, my staff and I will be only too happy to answer any questions you might have.

I can't tell you the secret of my investment strategy as this would impact it's effectiveness. I can guarantee however that not one coin of interest will be the result of any criminal activity.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. I retain the right to any bitcoins invested with me. Caveat emptor.

I hope to god no one takes this seriously.

[Vladimir]

cytokine:

you premise is "Pirate wants to buy huge amount of Bitcoin and he does it by selling/shorting it". Is it correct summary of your long post?

See this:

Borrowing BTC denominated assets = expecting Bitcoin to go down in relation to some base asset, for example, USD or gold (assuming that profit is the objective here).

Now please explain how come one can accumulate large amount of some asset by shorting it?

I'd speculate that accumulating large amount of bitcoins by borrowing could work if and only if not returning the capital borrowed is in plans.

Next!

[bulanula]

cytokine:

you premise is "Pirate wants to buy huge amount of Bitcoin and he does it by selling/shorting it". Is it correct summary of your long post?

See this:

Borrowing BTC denominated assets = expecting Bitcoin to go down in relation to some base asset, for example, USD or gold (assuming that profit is the objective here).

Now please explain how come one can accumulate large amount of some asset by shorting it?

Next!

I used to have some respect for you... You should try to calm down a reread what he posted.

Hey, stop borrowing my lines

[Vladimir]

I used to have some respect for you... You should try to calm down a reread what he posted.

Well I never respected you if it means anything. However irrelevant it is.

Now "I respected you but not anymore" argument is not going to work as it is a logical fallacy. I do not give a damn about your respect. And ad hominem is not a valid argument.


If I got it wrong you either show exactly where and how or shut up or call for pirate to save the day.

[unclescrooge]

Regardless of whether or not Pirate is running a Ponzi scheme, all of the posted ideas of how he could be making his money work fantastically, and I'm now living on a small Caribbean Island I own.

Just PM me if you want a 7% / week interest bearing account. This won't expose you to any risk of BS&T failing, but still provide a great return! In between sunbaking, and sipping mojitos and daiquiris, my staff and I will be only too happy to answer any questions you might have.

I can't tell you the secret of my investment strategy as this would impact it's effectiveness. I can guarantee however that not one coin of interest will be the result of any criminal activity.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. I retain the right to any bitcoins invested with me. Caveat emptor.

I hope to god no one takes this seriously.

PM sent. Kidding

I guess there's only one way to know and prove that it's not a ponzi, without saying what he does. It's a massive withdrawal of deposit + profit.

Then if everyone gets his coins back, you won't have any more "ponzi bashing" from anyone, promised

[hazek]

If pirate ends up running not a Ponzi but instead does what he says: selling BTC at high premium, Bitcoin could be taken for a nice ride within next few years.

All Ponzi speculation aside, we know this theory has a merit and high probability it may be one. Are there any other plausible explanations to pirate's operation with such great returns?

At first I couldn't imagine who would want to buy bitcoins at high premium and why. do you know?! Besides drug cartels, money laundry and some three letter agency questionable special covert ops funding?

What if there are smart and wealthy individuals who realized great potential of Bitcoin and decided to get in. Their target may be significant amount of bitcoins without driving exchange rate through the roof and they are ready to invest several million dollars. Although they could have gone through exchanges and probably buy bitcoins even at $10-20/BTC wouldn't it make sense to setup bitcoin lending operation and purchase at 10-15% premium all sub $10 bitcoins - given that they don't want to spend significant amounts of time on exchanges to acquire bitcoins at slow steady pace. They want to sign a check each week and get their bitcoins. Here comes the pirate and ready to sell at 10-15% premium. Pirate alone or conspiring with these individuals to keep bitcoin rate as sane prices (sub $10/BTC for instance) throughout their acquisition period. Bitcoin prices at $4-7 seem fair and pretty stable. Sub $4-3 prices - and everyone wants in so the rate isn't stable; over $8 and there is a risk of another bitcoin hype and explosion which could potentially get out of their control.
Once these individuals hit their target and complete acquisition they will start telling about Bitcoin to all their other wealthy buddies or simply start a new hype, or they don't even have to do anything if they have managed to acquire all available sub $10 bitcoins and the price will naturally start to rise (through the roof) to mid double or maybe even up to triple digits.

$5-6/BTC + 10-15%   better than over $10 BTC when purchasing, is it not?

Could this possibly work while providing great interest rates to lenders at the same time manipulating exchanges with great psychological walls to keep bitcoin prices as low rates for time being? Or it doesn't make any sense? What do you guys think?

The above explanation makes ZERO sense.

Here's why:
If such a group held USD and wanted to buy BTC and they went through pirate buying the BTC he borrowed, where the hell does he then get the BTC to pay back his "investors" once he sells the borrowed BTC to that group?? If he takes their USD and goes to the exchanges, well how is this going to be any different of an effect on the price of BTC than if the group went directly passed him?

Oh boy!!!  Someone is stepping close to treasure.  ATTACK!!!!!

And the fact that he pretends you're close when in fact your explanation makes zero sense is a huge red flag.

[Vladimir]

Oh boy!!!  Someone is stepping close to treasure.  ATTACK!!!!!

And the fact that he pretends you're close is when in fact your explanation makes zero sense is a huge red flag.

Indeed it is! walks like a duck...

[finkleshnorts]

where the hell does he then get the BTC to pay back his "investors" once he sells the borrowed BTC to that group??

Maybe he just borrows it

Wait...

[hazek]

where the hell does he then get the BTC to pay back his "investors" once he sells the borrowed BTC to that group??

Maybe he just borrows it

Wait...

Bingo. Hence the ponzi allegations.

[Serge]

The reason Pirateat40 responded to Serge is because it draws attention to the wrong side of the problem, the one that takes more time to discuss.

Serge, an idea for the most profitable enterprise of all time is not the point of discussion here. The question is why would he continue to share it! Sure, in the beginning he might have lacked funds. But now? There's just no way any sensible person would now try to get as many investors as possible!

This argument kills it in one go. All counters have been quickly debunked. Wake up and help spreading the word already.

My explanation to this dilemma is simple: you cannot take all returns to yourself in such a limited environment such as Bitcoin - it has great potential to devalue investments of those to whom he sells which could only mean trouble in the end.

[Serge]

Selling high volumes through lending is quite genius imo, even more so than any ponzi scheme

Keep in mind I'm just speculating and I don't dismiss pirate's op being a ponzi or some other scam. I've just tried to see what are the possibilities to run such operation legitimately and to find plausible explanation how it is done and interested in other's opinions on my findings

[Vladimir]

My having no respect for you is not an argument. It is a fact. :/

Stating irrelevant facts is not an argument either, actually it is another logical fallacy. Having delusions about your own "reputation" is not helping you at all too.

[finkleshnorts]

Selling high volumes through lending is quite genius imo, even more so than any ponzi scheme

Keep in mind I'm just speculating and I don't dismiss pirate's op being a ponzi or some other scam. I've just tried to see what are the possibilities to run such operation legitimately and to find plausible explanation how it is done and interested in other's opinions on my findings

I'm still curious how, in your scenario, Pirate could pay back his lenders without driving the price up and defeating his purpose. No sarcasm here, I'm really wondering.

[Serge]

If pirate ends up running not a Ponzi but instead does what he says: selling BTC at high premium, Bitcoin could be taken for a nice ride within next few years.

All Ponzi speculation aside, we know this theory has a merit and high probability it may be one. Are there any other plausible explanations to pirate's operation with such great returns?

At first I couldn't imagine who would want to buy bitcoins at high premium and why. do you know?! Besides drug cartels, money laundry and some three letter agency questionable special covert ops funding?

What if there are smart and wealthy individuals who realized great potential of Bitcoin and decided to get in. Their target may be significant amount of bitcoins without driving exchange rate through the roof and they are ready to invest several million dollars. Although they could have gone through exchanges and probably buy bitcoins even at $10-20/BTC wouldn't it make sense to setup bitcoin lending operation and purchase at 10-15% premium all sub $10 bitcoins - given that they don't want to spend significant amounts of time on exchanges to acquire bitcoins at slow steady pace. They want to sign a check each week and get their bitcoins. Here comes the pirate and ready to sell at 10-15% premium. Pirate alone or conspiring with these individuals to keep bitcoin rate as sane prices (sub $10/BTC for instance) throughout their acquisition period. Bitcoin prices at $4-7 seem fair and pretty stable. Sub $4-3 prices - and everyone wants in so the rate isn't stable; over $8 and there is a risk of another bitcoin hype and explosion which could potentially get out of their control.
Once these individuals hit their target and complete acquisition they will start telling about Bitcoin to all their other wealthy buddies or simply start a new hype, or they don't even have to do anything if they have managed to acquire all available sub $10 bitcoins and the price will naturally start to rise (through the roof) to mid double or maybe even up to triple digits.

$5-6/BTC + 10-15%   better than over $10 BTC when purchasing, is it not?

Could this possibly work while providing great interest rates to lenders at the same time manipulating exchanges with great psychological walls to keep bitcoin prices as low rates for time being? Or it doesn't make any sense? What do you guys think?

The above explanation makes ZERO sense.

Here's why:
If such a group held USD and wanted to buy BTC and they went through pirate buying the BTC he borrowed, where the hell does he then get the BTC to pay back his "investors" once he sells the borrowed BTC to that group?? If he takes their USD and goes to the exchanges, well how is this going to be any different of an effect on the price of BTC than if the group went directly passed him?

Oh boy!!!  Someone is stepping close to treasure.  ATTACK!!!!!

And the fact that he pretends you're close when in fact your explanation makes zero sense is a huge red flag.

This is a good and valid question. I would imagine pirate has large BTC and USD holdings present on exchanges himself or with a side deal with his clients/investors which gives them ability to "manipulate" the exchanges to keep exchange rates at fair, stable (target) levels, as we have seen this occur plenty of times in the past with great walls on both sides.  Without ability to keep exchange rate in sane levels my theory indeed would not make any sense. I just put 1 + 1 together:  market manipulation and high interest returns on borrowed bitcoins.

[sadpandatech]

Selling high volumes through lending is quite genius imo, even more so than any ponzi scheme

Keep in mind I'm just speculating and I don't dismiss pirate's op being a ponzi or some other scam. I've just tried to see what are the possibilities to run such operation legitimately and to find plausible explanation how it is done and interested in other's opinions on my findings

I'm still curious how, in your scenario, Pirate could pay back his lenders without driving the price up and defeating his purpose. No sarcasm here, I'm really wondering.

Maybe by buying highly tainted coins? I think the pool of taint woulda ran dry by now if that was the case. But am also curious...

[hazek]

If pirate ends up running not a Ponzi but instead does what he says: selling BTC at high premium, Bitcoin could be taken for a nice ride within next few years.

All Ponzi speculation aside, we know this theory has a merit and high probability it may be one. Are there any other plausible explanations to pirate's operation with such great returns?

At first I couldn't imagine who would want to buy bitcoins at high premium and why. do you know?! Besides drug cartels, money laundry and some three letter agency questionable special covert ops funding?

What if there are smart and wealthy individuals who realized great potential of Bitcoin and decided to get in. Their target may be significant amount of bitcoins without driving exchange rate through the roof and they are ready to invest several million dollars. Although they could have gone through exchanges and probably buy bitcoins even at $10-20/BTC wouldn't it make sense to setup bitcoin lending operation and purchase at 10-15% premium all sub $10 bitcoins - given that they don't want to spend significant amounts of time on exchanges to acquire bitcoins at slow steady pace. They want to sign a check each week and get their bitcoins. Here comes the pirate and ready to sell at 10-15% premium. Pirate alone or conspiring with these individuals to keep bitcoin rate as sane prices (sub $10/BTC for instance) throughout their acquisition period. Bitcoin prices at $4-7 seem fair and pretty stable. Sub $4-3 prices - and everyone wants in so the rate isn't stable; over $8 and there is a risk of another bitcoin hype and explosion which could potentially get out of their control.
Once these individuals hit their target and complete acquisition they will start telling about Bitcoin to all their other wealthy buddies or simply start a new hype, or they don't even have to do anything if they have managed to acquire all available sub $10 bitcoins and the price will naturally start to rise (through the roof) to mid double or maybe even up to triple digits.

$5-6/BTC + 10-15%   better than over $10 BTC when purchasing, is it not?

Could this possibly work while providing great interest rates to lenders at the same time manipulating exchanges with great psychological walls to keep bitcoin prices as low rates for time being? Or it doesn't make any sense? What do you guys think?

The above explanation makes ZERO sense.

Here's why:
If such a group held USD and wanted to buy BTC and they went through pirate buying the BTC he borrowed, where the hell does he then get the BTC to pay back his "investors" once he sells the borrowed BTC to that group?? If he takes their USD and goes to the exchanges, well how is this going to be any different of an effect on the price of BTC than if the group went directly passed him?

Oh boy!!!  Someone is stepping close to treasure.  ATTACK!!!!!

And the fact that he pretends you're close when in fact your explanation makes zero sense is a huge red flag.

This is a good and valid question. I would imagine pirate has large BTC and USD holdings present on exchanges himself or with a side deal with his clients/investors which gives them ability to "manipulate" the exchanges to keep exchange rates at fair, stable (target) levels, as we have seen this occur plenty of times in the past with great walls on both sides.  Without ability to keep exchange rate in sane levels my theory indeed would not make any sense. I just put 1 + 1 together:  market manipulation and high interest returns on borrowed bitcoins.

I don't understand, surely he must have lost a lot in the last 30 days then since the price is up about 30% and in a span of just 4 days jumped nearly 20%? Did his "investors" experience any loses recently? They should have if you are right..

[Serge]

If pirate ends up running not a Ponzi but instead does what he says: selling BTC at high premium, Bitcoin could be taken for a nice ride within next few years.

All Ponzi speculation aside, we know this theory has a merit and high probability it may be one. Are there any other plausible explanations to pirate's operation with such great returns?

At first I couldn't imagine who would want to buy bitcoins at high premium and why. do you know?! Besides drug cartels, money laundry and some three letter agency questionable special covert ops funding?

What if there are smart and wealthy individuals who realized great potential of Bitcoin and decided to get in. Their target may be significant amount of bitcoins without driving exchange rate through the roof and they are ready to invest several million dollars. Although they could have gone through exchanges and probably buy bitcoins even at $10-20/BTC wouldn't it make sense to setup bitcoin lending operation and purchase at 10-15% premium all sub $10 bitcoins - given that they don't want to spend significant amounts of time on exchanges to acquire bitcoins at slow steady pace. They want to sign a check each week and get their bitcoins. Here comes the pirate and ready to sell at 10-15% premium. Pirate alone or conspiring with these individuals to keep bitcoin rate as sane prices (sub $10/BTC for instance) throughout their acquisition period. Bitcoin prices at $4-7 seem fair and pretty stable. Sub $4-3 prices - and everyone wants in so the rate isn't stable; over $8 and there is a risk of another bitcoin hype and explosion which could potentially get out of their control.
Once these individuals hit their target and complete acquisition they will start telling about Bitcoin to all their other wealthy buddies or simply start a new hype, or they don't even have to do anything if they have managed to acquire all available sub $10 bitcoins and the price will naturally start to rise (through the roof) to mid double or maybe even up to triple digits.

$5-6/BTC + 10-15%   better than over $10 BTC when purchasing, is it not?

Could this possibly work while providing great interest rates to lenders at the same time manipulating exchanges with great psychological walls to keep bitcoin prices as low rates for time being? Or it doesn't make any sense? What do you guys think?

The above explanation makes ZERO sense.

Here's why:
If such a group held USD and wanted to buy BTC and they went through pirate buying the BTC he borrowed, where the hell does he then get the BTC to pay back his "investors" once he sells the borrowed BTC to that group?? If he takes their USD and goes to the exchanges, well how is this going to be any different of an effect on the price of BTC than if the group went directly passed him?

Oh boy!!!  Someone is stepping close to treasure.  ATTACK!!!!!

And the fact that he pretends you're close when in fact your explanation makes zero sense is a huge red flag.

This is a good and valid question. I would imagine pirate has large BTC and USD holdings present on exchanges himself or with a side deal with his clients/investors which gives them ability to "manipulate" the exchanges to keep exchange rates at fair, stable (target) levels, as we have seen this occur plenty of times in the past with great walls on both sides.  Without ability to keep exchange rate in sane levels my theory indeed would not make any sense. I just put 1 + 1 together:  market manipulation and high interest returns on borrowed bitcoins.

I don't understand, surely he must have lost a lot in the last 30 days then since the price is up about 30% and in a span of just 4 days jumped nearly 20%? Did his "investors" experience any loses recently? They should have if you are right..

As I've mentioned in my first post in this thread, I think his comfort zone is $5-7/BTC and while moving the rate steady up and down in this $5-7 range within months he and his clients additionally are able to profit on exchange rates while keep on their Bitcoin acquisition schedule.  It would be crazy to think that pirate is exposed on USD side for more than 10-24hrs. on borrowed bitcoins, given that he has available reserves (personal or not) on exchanges.  I also suspect he has neat bots working for him on exchanges catching all the dips and doing arbitrage and profiting on short term spreads.  Basically, in my opinion pirate has largest presence on exchanges and most of his competition now is invested in his Bitcoin Savings & Trust and through various pass throughs, leaving him sole market maker and mover =)  this part is a wild speculation though