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Author Topic: A Theory on what pirateat40 is doing  (Read 35937 times)
jimbobway
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July 30, 2012, 06:59:50 PM
 #201

Ok, so here some points based partially on ArticMine's theory.

- It is known that pirate is asking for more bitcoins for his fund.  Normally when things are going good you don't have to ask for more bitcoins.  So I will be assuming pirate did something wrong and needs more bitcoins to be profitable.

- ArticMine says pirate is going short.  So if pirate went short recently it means pirate sold some bitcoins and has mostly USD in reserve.  pirate wants the price of bitcoins to drop so he can rebuy more bitcoins (and repay his investors the weekly 7%).

- Since the price of bitcoin is stable, and did not drop as pirate expected it put pirate in a very uncomfortable position.  he may have to buy back the bitcoins at a loss resulting in a short squeeze.

- sunnakar chimed in and mentioned HNWIs.  If pirate has access to a lot of USD from HNWI then it is possible pirate could be slowly accumulating bitcoins.  If this is the case it is possible that pirate could still continue to be successful if bitcoin prices go up, and he would not be short squeezed.

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July 30, 2012, 07:06:39 PM
 #202

Ok, so here some points based partially on ArticMine's theory.

- It is known that pirate is asking for more bitcoins for his fund.  Normally when things are going good you don't have to ask for more bitcoins.  So I will be assuming pirate did something wrong and needs more bitcoins to be profitable.

- ArticMine says pirate is going short.  So if pirate went short recently it means pirate sold some bitcoins and has mostly USD in reserve.  pirate wants the price of bitcoins to drop so he can rebuy more bitcoins (and repay his investors the weekly 7%).

- Since the price of bitcoin is stable, and did not drop as pirate expected it put pirate in a very uncomfortable position.  he may have to buy back the bitcoins at a loss resulting in a short squeeze.

- sunnakar chimed in and mentioned HNWIs.  If pirate has access to a lot of USD from HNWI then it is possible pirate could be slowly accumulating bitcoins.  If this is the case it is possible that pirate could still continue to be successful if bitcoin prices go up, and he would not be short squeezed.

theres no way any sensible business person would leave himself open to a "short squeeze" while paying 3400% interest on investments

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July 30, 2012, 07:09:58 PM
 #203

Ok, so here some points based partially on ArticMine's theory.

- It is known that pirate is asking for more bitcoins for his fund.  Normally when things are going good you don't have to ask for more bitcoins.  So I will be assuming pirate did something wrong and needs more bitcoins to be profitable.

- ArticMine says pirate is going short.  So if pirate went short recently it means pirate sold some bitcoins and has mostly USD in reserve.  pirate wants the price of bitcoins to drop so he can rebuy more bitcoins (and repay his investors the weekly 7%).

- Since the price of bitcoin is stable, and did not drop as pirate expected it put pirate in a very uncomfortable position.  he may have to buy back the bitcoins at a loss resulting in a short squeeze.

- sunnakar chimed in and mentioned HNWIs.  If pirate has access to a lot of USD from HNWI then it is possible pirate could be slowly accumulating bitcoins.  If this is the case it is possible that pirate could still continue to be successful if bitcoin prices go up, and he would not be short squeezed.

theres no way any sensible business person would leave himself open to a "short squeeze" while paying 3400% interest on investments



But everybody's assuming he's a crook Roll Eyes.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 30, 2012, 07:19:32 PM
 #204

theres no way any sensible business person would ... pay... 3400% interest on investments

(Although assuming he has a cap that he actively maintains and thus avoids compounding, the reality is more like 360% interest, but the point still stands, especially these days when you can get capital for < 3%)

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
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July 30, 2012, 07:38:48 PM
 #205

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory.
How does he generate 10% a week exactly? Sure, if you have some magic way to generate 10%/week, you can offer people 7%/week interest. But that's a mighty big if.

I am an employee of Ripple.
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July 30, 2012, 08:22:02 PM
 #206

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory.
How does he generate 10% a week exactly? Sure, if you have some magic way to generate 10%/week, you can offer people 7%/week interest. But that's a mighty big if.

Most businesses small and large don't even make 10% a week. Even the best investors of all time don't make returns consistently like that for years.

This house of cards will fall soon. Probably before December 31st, 2012 at 11:59:59pm.

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jimbobway
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July 30, 2012, 08:31:45 PM
 #207

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory.
How does he generate 10% a week exactly? Sure, if you have some magic way to generate 10%/week, you can offer people 7%/week interest. But that's a mighty big if.

It might be possible pirate made 100% already and he is just paying it out a little at a time at 7% a week.  If he bought at $4.5 and it goes to $9 then that's 100% profit.

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July 30, 2012, 08:31:55 PM
 #208

[lots of BS skipped]
 He has now effectively hedged his downward risk.
[lots of BS skipped]

This is a new kind of hedge. Let's now borrow at 3000% APR to hedge some insignificant risk. This is some genius hedging here, lets pay 3000$ to remove risk of losing 100$ Right! Here is a simpler option, get idiots greedy brainless "investors" to give you BTC, sell half on open market, pay the rest back to those greedy brainless "investors" in weekly instalments  until there is no money left.

Now look, no need to waste a few pages to explain some convoluted unworkable and completely pointless scheme. Just one-two sentences and it is all simple and clear.




Vlad should make a 5000 BTC bet if he really thinks this way Smiley
And a 150.000 BTC hedge on his bet.  Roll Eyes
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July 30, 2012, 08:34:45 PM
 #209

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory.
How does he generate 10% a week exactly? Sure, if you have some magic way to generate 10%/week, you can offer people 7%/week interest. But that's a mighty big if.

It might be possible pirate made 100% already and he is just paying it out a little at a time at 7% a week.  If he bought at $4.5 and it goes to $9 then that's 100% profit.

Except his liabilities are in BTC, so to make 100% profit trading he would need to sell high and buy lower.  However, I don't believe that trading the volatility is the source of pirate's income.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 30, 2012, 10:28:58 PM
 #210

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory.
How does he generate 10% a week exactly? Sure, if you have some magic way to generate 10%/week, you can offer people 7%/week interest. But that's a mighty big if.

It might be possible pirate made 100% already and he is just paying it out a little at a time at 7% a week.  If he bought at $4.5 and it goes to $9 then that's 100% profit.

The fact that people can reason this way gives me a measure of how well a Ponzi can prosper. Doubling of price is a 50% LOSS for him for every Bitcoin  that he converted to fiat then, stop. But he’s smarter than this, and probably kept them all in his wallet ready to pay dividends at due time  Wink
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July 30, 2012, 10:33:57 PM
 #211

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory.
How does he generate 10% a week exactly? Sure, if you have some magic way to generate 10%/week, you can offer people 7%/week interest. But that's a mighty big if.

It might be possible pirate made 100% already and he is just paying it out a little at a time at 7% a week.  If he bought at $4.5 and it goes to $9 then that's 100% profit.
If he could accomplish that miracle, it would sustain his business for about two months. Perhaps he could stretch that to three if he didn't take any new deposits.

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July 30, 2012, 10:39:26 PM
 #212

Well after a couple of month I'm currently only risking my profit. So every week I take the interest out as pure profit.
So ponzi or not I'm a happy man  Tongue

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July 30, 2012, 10:43:12 PM
 #213

Well after a couple of month I'm currently only risking my profit. So every week I take the interest out as pure profit.
So ponzi or not I'm a happy man  Tongue
That is not true. You risk a lot more than that if you continue to intentionally receive fraudulent transfers of other people's money. Willful ignorance is not a defense.

http://utahsecuritiesfraud.com/2010/08/02/clawback-lawsuits-how-investing-in-a-ponzi-scheme-can-bite-you-twice/
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/05/30/victims-of-li-ponzi-scheme-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/

Quote
CBS 2′s Lou Young spoke with Greg Ameo, who said that the trustee handling Cosmo’s collapsed investment firm is demanding even more money.

“Fifteen grand, and I lost over $160,000. I think I’m getting screwed twice, basically,” Ameo said.

The recent charges are part of a claw-back proceeding. Anybody who withdrew money from their accounts at Agape World, Cosmo’s Ponzi front, within 90 days of its collapse, can be ordered to pay it back. The claw-back even applies to money that was part of the original investment, officials said.

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July 31, 2012, 02:39:40 AM
 #214

Here is a thought. From the information on this forum it is fair to say that pirateat40 is a US Person and that Income from Bitcoin Savings and Trust is subject to US Tax Withholding on Foreign Persons. http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=106981,00.html Bottom line the IRS will want its share of the 7% per week interest, and if the lenders have not filed that proper paperwork with pirateat40 and pirateat40 has not sent the appropriate withholding taxes to the IRS this can get real interesting.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 31, 2012, 02:55:27 AM
 #215

Here is a thought. From the information on this forum it is fair to say that pirateat40 is a US Person and that Income from Bitcoin Savings and Trust is subject to US Tax Withholding on Foreign Persons. http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=106981,00.html Bottom line the IRS will want its share of the 7% per week interest, and if the lenders have not filed that proper paperwork with pirateat40 and pirateat40 has not sent the appropriate withholding taxes to the IRS this can get real interesting.

The deposits and interest are in Bitcoin. There is no tax code for Bitcoin.

I doubt very much that the IRS would take that point of view here, otherwise this sets a very dangerous precedent. Pay people in Bitcoin and legally avoid taxes. By the way barter transactions are taxable are they not?

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 31, 2012, 03:04:58 AM
 #216

Here is a thought. From the information on this forum it is fair to say that pirateat40 is a US Person and that Income from Bitcoin Savings and Trust is subject to US Tax Withholding on Foreign Persons. http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/international/article/0,,id=106981,00.html Bottom line the IRS will want its share of the 7% per week interest, and if the lenders have not filed that proper paperwork with pirateat40 and pirateat40 has not sent the appropriate withholding taxes to the IRS this can get real interesting.

The deposits and interest are in Bitcoin. There is no tax code for Bitcoin.

I doubt very much that the IRS would take that point of view here, otherwise you set a very dangerous precedent. Pay people in Bitcoin and legally avoid taxes. By the way barter transactions are taxable are they not?

Yes, barter is taxable. The question becomes, when do you tax Bitcoin earnings? I would have to assume at the point of conversion to fiat, but I am not a CPA (and I doubt they know either).

Edit: Or possibly at the point of "possession". But I seriously doubt the IRS is capable of dealing with any Bitcoin related taxation at the present, and probably not for quite some time.

My understanding is the fair market value in USD at the time of the transaction. In this case when the interest is paid.  As for the IRS been able to deal with this, it may be as simple as an IRS agent typing "bitcoin exchange rate" into a search engine, getting the BTC / USD market rate from MtGox and assessing and auditing accordingly.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 31, 2012, 05:24:17 AM
 #217


I suppose it also depends on whether Bitcoin is a currency or commodity. Apparently this has been discussed elsewhere, perhaps you could find pertinent information there.

I very much suspect this has little to do with whether Bitcoin is "currency", "virtual currency", "money", "a commodity", "stored value" etc., as the issue here is whether or not US withholding taxes were withheld and paid to the IRS on US source income to non US persons. In what form this income was paid may turn out to be moot. The potential liability can be up to 30% of all the interest paid by BST, with a valuation in USD based on the BTC / USD exchange rate at the time the interest was paid.

Why this is relevant for those of us that have no relationship with piratat40 or BST and in fact may not even live in the United States is that because of the size of BST relative to the Bitcoin economy, an IRS audit of pirateat40 and BST can have an impact on the BTC / USD exchange rate. How it will impact the BTC / USD exchange rate is not clear to me at all.


Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 01, 2012, 01:56:10 PM
 #218

http://www.corporationwiki.com/Unknown/Unknown/gpumax-technologies-llc/101278778.aspx
Zach Nakaska - Managing Member
Trendon Shavers - Managing Member
Michael Thalasinos - Managing Member
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michael-thalasinos/54/a8/396
President/Owner
Jetpack Cayman
"February 2012 – Present (7 months) Grand Cayman"
Searching for "Jetpack Cayman" doesn't turn up much besides a 3 like facebook page and a few videos from a jetpack vendor

This is quite a suspicious place to start a business after launching service that resembles a money laundering scheme (GPUMAX) and one that resembles a ponzi (BTCS&T)

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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August 01, 2012, 02:01:05 PM
 #219

It's probably investing in HYIP sites.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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August 01, 2012, 02:25:04 PM
 #220

It's probably investing in HYIP sites.
I doubt it.  Why operate a HYIP passthrough when you could be the HYIP yourself?

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