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Author Topic: 100% proof pirate runs a ponzi (thought experiment)  (Read 7796 times)
unclescrooge
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July 05, 2012, 08:11:26 PM
 #41

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

Try doing that with any bank ever.... same exact result will happen

Exactly.  If they are keeping everything in their vault, it isn't making them money which means they can't pay you unless they are a ponzi.  Your test could prove the exact opposite of what you think it will.

No, if he can give back everyone deposit + profit, that mean he did make the profit (even if it takes a few days to withdraw)

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July 05, 2012, 08:15:32 PM
 #42

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

In the end they should be able to reimburse everyone (if they're legit...)

How? If everyone withdraws from the bank then everyone with an auto loan/mortgage is suddenly going to pay in full so that they can give everyone their money? The world doesn't work like that...

*edit* scratch that, thought that quote went one level deeper (to my post)
unclescrooge
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July 05, 2012, 08:49:35 PM
 #43

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

In the end they should be able to reimburse everyone (if they're legit...)

How? If everyone withdraws from the bank then everyone with an auto loan/mortgage is suddenly going to pay in full so that they can give everyone their money? The world doesn't work like that...

*edit* scratch that, thought that quote went one level deeper (to my post)

I'm not talking about banks (which are part of the big ponzis that fiat currencies are), just about pirate's business

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July 05, 2012, 10:22:04 PM
 #44

I dont get this, I think Ive read that all big accounts have one non-changeable address for deposit. All btc must work, he cant afford them to rest. There must be proof of that somewhere and movements ever week. Uhh, maybe Im tired.
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July 05, 2012, 10:35:22 PM
 #45

This is how I read your post.
Serious ...appear as trolling ....

... resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme ... no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny ... some circumstantial evidence ... tip the scale slightly ...  
So all of this depend on high boson quantum properties ? ,,, very interesting / Following.

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July 05, 2012, 10:49:06 PM
 #46

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

Agreed +1



+1  this highlights a good point.   Do you own DUE DILIGENCE.  People can't always hold your hand or tell you what to think or do.   Regardless of the outcome, we will hopefully all learn something and I am hoping that people will learn to do research, use their brain to critically analysis what is presented to them, make a decision and learn from the success or failure.   

It is obvious that people have made their decisions and we will just have to wait and see what happens.    Personally I have just read the different posts to feel out the general feelings.   His operation pre-dates me on this forum so I have no real perspective or opinion other that the general advice given above that I would tell any off you if you asked me a similar question on the street.

Hope it helps,
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July 07, 2012, 09:05:48 AM
 #47

If I want to gamble I go to the horse races. At least I can see if the horse is sweating up.

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July 07, 2012, 03:17:34 PM
 #48

Following is a path of thought and the questions that arise with it. I am prone to error and if someone sees what i do not, please tell.

The rates he gives are just from a different planet, a first reaction to "7%... weekly..." should always be "hahaha ya right". Since it is seemingly necessary to refresh some people's memory, following is what it looks like within one year, estimating a start budget of 50 000BTC (very low for the size of this operation) and a result for 80 weeks, taken because this has and supposedly will be running for a total time of over a year. Of course there are already signs that these rates will go down, this is just a display of magnitude of the growth we are talking about here:
       for 80 weeks:

Please note that from what i heard he intends to pay this back in BTC. What reason could there be to need money so drastically, that these interest rates are justified? If a bank charged ~3373% annually for a loan, people would assume it is a joke. Also remember that lowering interest rate in the future has nothing to do with validity of the current szenario - as long as the overhead of moving the BTC is negligible, the only relevant value is total interest per time. The shorter the time of the loan, the lower the total interest paid for it. As a side information, even 2% weekly would still amount to ~280% annually, which is still far from anything you would usually see.

If someone accepts this offer, he or she should at some point have gotten some questions and answered them to themselves in one or another way:
  • Even 1% weekly would be far higher than any usual offer, why pay more?
  • If there is a reason to pay more, it must involve some kind of risk for the investor. What is that risk?
  • Why not ask a bigger investor instead of having the trouble with so many people? There are several people holding a lot of BTC and for 7% weekly without risk others would buy the required BTC from Mt.Gox immediately. Note that even if you double the price by instantly buying, after just ten weeks it will have paid itself off again, neglecting that you will not buy all coins at the peak of double the current price and that it is likely you can resell for a bit more than the current price after doubling it. (at time of post: Buy 100000 BTC for 842601.21 USD, ~8.43$/BTC average, taken from http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html - then just wait until the order book refills if you want more, this is still not at double the price and surely not the best strategy to buy)

How does one answer those questions? I have seen people suggest that "large players" want to get BTC without moving the price. Then how do they pay back in BTC, and with those ridiculous rates on top? Also as suggested in the third question, it is simple to get large amounts by just buying them - in a much cheaper way than paying 7%. Where is the risk? Surely, if the risk involved is small, people will almost throw their money at you for those rates. Risk always means there is a chance of losing money instead of gaining. At this level, it should be very likely to lose everything, as otherwise even lower rates would be justified.

At some point, one wonders about the option that it is a scam. I have seen much arguing about Occam's Razor here and this is exactly where it fits in: trying to answer the questions above, no easy solution does the job. In fact, even absurd ones have failed so far (for example "large players" wanting to buy a lot of BTC) and the entire thing grows more and more suspicious. Now one is searching for an explanation how a scam would work, and is so far not convinced by anything, but just weighing all the options. Some people get paid back, why would a scammer do this? So surely it must be valid? But now one szenario almost jumps at you: a Ponzi Scheme. There are:
  • Ridiculously high interest rates
  • Forced withdrawals
  • Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money
  • Appearance of a shadow team which noone has seen so far
  • No explanation where the interest comes from or about the operation in general
and the list continues, just walk around on the forum and open your eyes.

Surely there cannot be any proof. There is always the chance that there is some explanation to all of this, some extremely non-standard, complex solution. However, if you meet someone on the street and he tells you not only some fake story, but that "there is a reason to explain this, now give me your money and wait here, i will come back in a week and give it back and even more!", will you really take out your wallet?
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July 07, 2012, 07:50:11 PM
 #49

  • Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Pirate's name is public, a basic google search will give you the name of his licensed business and its registered address.
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July 07, 2012, 07:55:47 PM
 #50

Even if it is a ponzi, the plan is to make all the money before he dissapears Tongue

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Raoul Duke
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July 07, 2012, 08:01:32 PM
 #51

  • Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Let me do it for you...
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Unknown/Unknown/gpumax-technologies-llc/101278778.aspx

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name
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Updated 6/23/2012 - This profile of Gpumax Technologies, LLC was created using data from Texas Secretary of State

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July 07, 2012, 08:06:31 PM
 #52

  • Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Let me do it for you...
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Unknown/Unknown/gpumax-technologies-llc/101278778.aspx

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name
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Updated 6/23/2012 - This profile of Gpumax Technologies, LLC was created using data from Texas Secretary of State

Interesting.  Not the company I was referencing though.
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July 07, 2012, 08:18:26 PM
 #53

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name
Why?

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Raoul Duke
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July 07, 2012, 08:25:30 PM
 #54

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name
Why?

Sarcasm Tongue
Why do you think I inserted the quote about the data being taken from the Texas Secretary of State?

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July 07, 2012, 08:27:14 PM
 #55

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name
Why?

Sarcasm Tongue
Why do you think I inserted the quote about the data being taken from the Texas Secretary of State?
Damn internets. I want to meet all of you guys in a huge stadium somewhere, that would fix the issues with sarcasm once and for all! Imagine all the noise and shouting lol.

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July 07, 2012, 10:27:39 PM
 #56

Thanks for pointing out that he said a name and seemingly valid, registered LLC. Still, i assumed that considering there are many people in favor of BS&T someone would address other points than fixating on me not knowing that he did. It is an interesting side thing though, I might take the time and check whether he really is that person.

Even if it is a ponzi, the plan is to make all the money before he dissapears Tongue
Taken you hit the precise point to withdraw before he runs away with all your money.
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July 07, 2012, 10:38:22 PM
 #57

Thanks for pointing out that he said a name and seemingly valid, registered LLC. Still, i assumed that considering there are many people in favor of BS&T someone would address other points than fixating on me not knowing that he did. It is an interesting side thing though, I might take the time and check whether he really is that person.

Why would you do that?
Do you have any money invested on any of his projects?
What's your interest?

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July 07, 2012, 11:04:04 PM
 #58

Quote
Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Well at least SOMEONE gets it.

If you buy anything with BTC you can be screwed hard because it is not reversible.

Also, since BTC is not legally property but in the same legal region as WOW Gold, nobody can do a damn thing if 1 million of it is stolen by some Texan dood.
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July 07, 2012, 11:45:08 PM
 #59

Quote
Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Well at least SOMEONE gets it.

If you buy anything with BTC you can be screwed hard because it is not reversible.

Also, since BTC is not legally property but in the same legal region as WOW Gold, nobody can do a damn thing if 1 million of it is stolen by some Texan dood.


Here we are again, going in circles.  This just isn't true.

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July 08, 2012, 12:28:21 AM
 #60

@imsaguy: Could you show me my mistake, for example a normal and plausible explanation for the 7% weekly interest rate?

@psy: Curiosity. If he was really running a ponzi, it would be awkward to tell his identity. Escaping to another country is surely still possible, but involves a lot of trouble. It would make me have to think again why he would do that.
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