100% proof pirate runs a ponzi (thought experiment)

[hazek]

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme the inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

In a sense the nature of pirate's business is like the Schrödinger's cat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

It's in a superposition where it's both a ponzi and a legit business -> 100% proof (not really but you get the point). Only after we get a peek behind the curtain will know which it really is.



Bottom line:
- Those who are "investing" with pirate or defending his practices need to understand that at least some of the time it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything and are even defending the scamming.



*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law


EDIT:
Disclaimer: I thought it would have been obvious but it appears I overestimated the intelligence of some, particularly that of the first few posters who replied: This is a thought experiment, and not actually a concrete proof either way.

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[rjk]

Circumstance:
-  resembles
- there is no actual credible evidence


*circumstantial evidence

nothing that could stick in a court of law

Nothing to see here, move on.

[imsaguy]

Ok Bill Nye, let's break it down:

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme an inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

does not equal

it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything

You need to go reread about causation and then work on your logic skills.

[enmaku]

Schrodinger's cat: IDTTMWYTIM...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWMTOrux0LM

[Sukrim]

I hoped to read about some real findings on the blockchain that pirate for example only pays out interest from deposit addresses or something like that...

Sorry, but even though I'm also VERY sceptical about whatever pirateat40 does (my guess was/is ponzi by proxy, like "investing" in MMM - but then there's the question how he gets these amounts of BTC back from fiat without causing a rally at MtGox) I hate "Occlam's razor says"... "if it quacks like a duck"... and "it really looks and is operated like other HYIP scams"... "proofs", especially paired with percentages.

Post blockchain evidence, IP logs, photos of pirateat40 with big suitcases full of USD... but not the same crap all the time that "it smells like ponzi in here".

[Portnoy]

Ok Bill Nye, let's break it down:

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme an inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

does not equal

it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything

You need to go reread about causation and then work on your logic skills.

+1

[hazek]

Ok Bill Nye, let's break it down:

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme an inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

does equal

it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything

Do you see what I did there?

[Yankee (BitInstant)]

Hey hazek,

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

You obviously came to your findings based on evidence you have found and

*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law

In that paste you cited some proof, can you share it ?

EDIT: I'v read some others posts as well on the topic so would be cool to hear your side

-Charlie

[hazek]

Hey hazek,

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

You obviously came to your findings based on evidence you have found and

*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law

In that paste you cited some proof, can you share it ?

EDIT: I'v read some others posts as well on the topic so would be cool to hear your side

-Charlie

Here are some of the things that are alarming:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91653.0

[Raoul Duke]

Hey hazek,

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

You obviously came to your findings based on evidence you have found and

*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law

In that paste you cited some proof, can you share it ?

EDIT: I'v read some others posts as well on the topic so would be cool to hear your side

-Charlie

Here are some of the things that are alarming:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91653.0

alarming != proof, LogicMan.

[Francesco]

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme the inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

In a sense the nature of pirate's business is like the Schrödinger's cat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

It's in a superposition where it's both a ponzi and a legit business. Only after we get a peek behind the curtain will know which it really is.



Bottom line:
- Those who are "investing" with pirate or defending his practices need to understand that at least some of the time it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything and are even defending the scamming.



*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law


EDIT:
Disclaimer: I thought it would have been obvious but it appears I overestimated the intelligence of some, particularly that of the first few posters who replied: This is a thought experiment, and not actually a concrete proof either way.

I believe Pirate is a Ponzi, but I am ever more certain you are trolling. Please get a life and leave quantum physics alone 

[rebuilder]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

[Yankee (BitInstant)]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

Agreed +1

[N12]

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

I agree, this is the heart of the matter. And anyone who defends such a thing as legit would similarly defend a ponzi scheme as legit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91552.0

Here is my assessment for the interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg1006256#msg1006256

BTW, moving this because it's not really related to price speculation.

[bitcoinBull]

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

This all started with pirate's recent change of terms.

Most telling:

We are not supposed to say evil things in threads concerning "Bitcoin Savings and Trust" or their various clones and offspring, thus it gets an extra thread. Actually, it's not just that one that worries me, but it is the most prominent example.

I'm looking to pull one bigger than mybitcoin.com.  If figure, go big or go back to work.

Occam's razor:

You don't have a shred of evidence or even an idea of what I do. 

Um, I think this is the problem.

Probable default around July 27:

Ponzi "investors" shall be more worried about return of capital, as opposed to return on capital. Specifically between now and miracle of anonymous operator ceasing being anonymous event that is reportedly scheduled to happen a few weeks down the road.

Howdy, 

I'll be in Las Vegas July 27th through July 29th with some of the biggest names in Bitcoin.  If you're in the area drop by and we can all chat.  Contact me for details if you're interested.

P.S. Private security will be present so no fishy business.  

-pirate

Bold move considering people will learn how you look and who you really are. It's almost as if this was a stunt to inspire confidence.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

+1 perfectly said.

It is entirely possible that Pirate operation is legit.   
It is also entirely possible that it is a ponzi scheme. 
At least with the limited information given to investors there is no way to make an accurate determination.

So if Pirate's investors don't get scammed this time around it will simply be due to blind luck and if they keep investing with the same lack of due diligence they will eventually be burned.

[hazek]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

+1 perfectly said.

It is entirely possible that Pirate operation is legit.   
It is also entirely possible that it is a ponzi scheme. 
At least with the limited information given to investors there is no way to make an accurate determination.

So if Pirate's investors don't get scammed this time around it will simply be due to blind luck and if they keep investing with the same lack of due diligence they will eventually be burned.

That's exactly what I was going for with my OP.. Any suggestions how I can edit it to make it clearer?

[nimda]

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

[hazek]

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

If it can be a ponzi it is a ponzi some of the time -> 100% proof.

[N12]

1. Spend couple of months trading #bitcoin-OTC and bitcointalk to build reputation with constructed ninjaat40 identity
2. Offer 10% per week saying you do "Market Arbitrage" and "Private Loans To Network Members"
3. Watch pirate investor money flow to ninja

How can we prove that the ninjaat40 is a ponzi op?

[nimda]

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

If it can be a ponzi it is a ponzi some of the time -> 100% proof.

Bullshit. "If it can be legit it is legit some of the time -> 100% proof it's not a ponzi."

[hazek]

1. Spend couple of months trading #bitcoin-OTC and bitcointalk to build reputation with constructed ninjaat40 identity
2. Offer 10% per week saying you do "Market Arbitrage" and "Private Loans To Network Members"
3. Watch pirate investor money flow to ninja

How can we prove that the ninjaat40 is a ponzi op?

If it can be it is some of time.

But we can't prove that is this time, unless we get a peek behind the curtain - that's the only way to know that.

[jgarzik]

That's exactly what I was going for with my OP.. Any suggestions how I can edit it to make it clearer?

The thread title is thoroughly misleading.

There is, in fact, zero proof that pirate runs a ponzi.

(however, as you and others have pointed out, there is zero proof that it is not a ponzi also)

[hazek]

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

If it can be a ponzi it is a ponzi some of the time -> 100% proof.

Bullshit. "If it can be legit it is legit some of the time -> 100% proof it's not a ponzi."

Yes, both is true. Although I'm more concerned with the times it's a ponzi then I'm with the times it's legit.

[nimda]

Then you're being misleading. Taking the waveform of the deadcat and of the alive cat is not 100% proof that it's dead this time, and all I'm concened with is if it's dead this time.

[hazek]

Then you're being misleading. Taking the waveform of the deadcat and of the alive cat is not 100% proof that it's dead this time, and all I'm concened with is if it's dead this time.

Where did I say "this time"?

[hazek]

Again the nature of his business is in a super position of being both legit and a ponzi. Therefor until we find out it is a ponzi as well as legit - and that's my proof.

I think the disconnect is that you are telling me it's neither but I'm telling you it's both.

[N12]

So because I am not sure if you are male or female, you are both? It's simply "unknown". We do not need proof, it is impossible to prove a ponzi until it collapses.

All we need is evidence, and we have plenty to tilt it in favor of ponzi.

[notme]

Horrible analogy.  Schrodinger's cat is guaranteed to be dead at some point due to the setup of the thought experiment.  Pirate's operation has no such guarantee of being a ponzi.

[01BTC10]

I don't understand where is the 100% proof?

[rjk]

I don't understand where is the 100% proof?

Floating around in the aether somewhere... possibly 100% proof AND 100% lie, given Schrodinger's cat!

[imsaguy]

I don't understand where is the 100% proof?

Floating around in the aether somewhere... possibly 100% proof AND 100% lie, given Schrodinger's cat!

Mix in the microwave with a little bit of occam.

[kneim]

As I understood Ponzi is a very instable system coming to an end rather soon, like fiat money but much faster. As all of us knows, money relocates from loosers to winners. And the first ones will win, the last ones will loose.

I'm somewhat stupid in mathematics, and cannot prove it a ponzi. But what about 3300% increase a year? Can somebody explain me?

Bangsters are better guys, I think. I not even want me seen on his customer's/lender's list.

[unclescrooge]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

[imsaguy]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

[Valalvax]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

Try doing that with any bank ever.... same exact result will happen

[rjk]

Actually, I wonder if Pirate could pay out all balances of his own accord simultaneously, and request that they all be paid back in as soon as possible so that the operation isn't affected too much.

[imsaguy]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

Try doing that with any bank ever.... same exact result will happen

Exactly.  If they are keeping everything in their vault, it isn't making them money which means they can't pay you unless they are a ponzi.  Your test could prove the exact opposite of what you think it will.

[Portnoy]

Any suggestions how I can edit it to make it clearer?

As someone already told you, leave the quantum mechanics alone.

There is no certainty, or 100% proof, either way... that's why the term "uncertainty principle" is used
when talking about stuff happening at the quantum level...  and this issue is 'not' about stuff happening
at the quantum level.  

edit/ Things are uncertain in this case not because of the nature of the realm in which we are dealing...
but simply because of lack of data, at this particular moment. It is not out of the question that later
sufficient evidence may be found.   

[unclescrooge]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

In the end they should be able to reimburse everyone (if they're legit...)

[unclescrooge]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

Try doing that with any bank ever.... same exact result will happen

Exactly.  If they are keeping everything in their vault, it isn't making them money which means they can't pay you unless they are a ponzi.  Your test could prove the exact opposite of what you think it will.

No, if he can give back everyone deposit + profit, that mean he did make the profit (even if it takes a few days to withdraw)

[Valalvax]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

In the end they should be able to reimburse everyone (if they're legit...)

How? If everyone withdraws from the bank then everyone with an auto loan/mortgage is suddenly going to pay in full so that they can give everyone their money? The world doesn't work like that...

*edit* scratch that, thought that quote went one level deeper (to my post)

[unclescrooge]

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

In the end they should be able to reimburse everyone (if they're legit...)

How? If everyone withdraws from the bank then everyone with an auto loan/mortgage is suddenly going to pay in full so that they can give everyone their money? The world doesn't work like that...

*edit* scratch that, thought that quote went one level deeper (to my post)

I'm not talking about banks (which are part of the big ponzis that fiat currencies are), just about pirate's business

[uuidman]

I dont get this, I think Ive read that all big accounts have one non-changeable address for deposit. All btc must work, he cant afford them to rest. There must be proof of that somewhere and movements ever week. Uhh, maybe Im tired.

[Transisto]

This is how I read your post.

Serious ...appear as trolling ....

... resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme ... no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny ... some circumstantial evidence ... tip the scale slightly ...  

So all of this depend on high boson quantum properties ? ,,, very interesting / Following.

[Dalkore]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

Agreed +1

+1  this highlights a good point.   Do you own DUE DILIGENCE.  People can't always hold your hand or tell you what to think or do.   Regardless of the outcome, we will hopefully all learn something and I am hoping that people will learn to do research, use their brain to critically analysis what is presented to them, make a decision and learn from the success or failure.   

It is obvious that people have made their decisions and we will just have to wait and see what happens.    Personally I have just read the different posts to feel out the general feelings.   His operation pre-dates me on this forum so I have no real perspective or opinion other that the general advice given above that I would tell any off you if you asked me a similar question on the street.

Hope it helps,
Dalkore

[Bitcoin Oz]

If I want to gamble I go to the horse races. At least I can see if the horse is sweating up.

[Hecate]

Following is a path of thought and the questions that arise with it. I am prone to error and if someone sees what i do not, please tell.

The rates he gives are just from a different planet, a first reaction to "7%... weekly..." should always be "hahaha ya right". Since it is seemingly necessary to refresh some people's memory, following is what it looks like within one year, estimating a start budget of 50 000BTC (very low for the size of this operation) and a result for 80 weeks, taken because this has and supposedly will be running for a total time of over a year. Of course there are already signs that these rates will go down, this is just a display of magnitude of the growth we are talking about here:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2igm6wh.png       for 80 weeks:http://i49.tinypic.com/14nivyo.png

Please note that from what i heard he intends to pay this back in BTC. What reason could there be to need money so drastically, that these interest rates are justified? If a bank charged ~3373% annually for a loan, people would assume it is a joke. Also remember that lowering interest rate in the future has nothing to do with validity of the current szenario - as long as the overhead of moving the BTC is negligible, the only relevant value is total interest per time. The shorter the time of the loan, the lower the total interest paid for it. As a side information, even 2% weekly would still amount to ~280% annually, which is still far from anything you would usually see.

If someone accepts this offer, he or she should at some point have gotten some questions and answered them to themselves in one or another way:

• Even 1% weekly would be far higher than any usual offer, why pay more?
• If there is a reason to pay more, it must involve some kind of risk for the investor. What is that risk?
• Why not ask a bigger investor instead of having the trouble with so many people? There are several people holding a lot of BTC and for 7% weekly without risk others would buy the required BTC from Mt.Gox immediately. Note that even if you double the price by instantly buying, after just ten weeks it will have paid itself off again, neglecting that you will not buy all coins at the peak of double the current price and that it is likely you can resell for a bit more than the current price after doubling it. (at time of post: Buy 100000 BTC for 842601.21 USD, ~8.43$/BTC average, taken from http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html - then just wait until the order book refills if you want more, this is still not at double the price and surely not the best strategy to buy)

How does one answer those questions? I have seen people suggest that "large players" want to get BTC without moving the price. Then how do they pay back in BTC, and with those ridiculous rates on top? Also as suggested in the third question, it is simple to get large amounts by just buying them - in a much cheaper way than paying 7%. Where is the risk? Surely, if the risk involved is small, people will almost throw their money at you for those rates. Risk always means there is a chance of losing money instead of gaining. At this level, it should be very likely to lose everything, as otherwise even lower rates would be justified.

At some point, one wonders about the option that it is a scam. I have seen much arguing about Occam's Razor here and this is exactly where it fits in: trying to answer the questions above, no easy solution does the job. In fact, even absurd ones have failed so far (for example "large players" wanting to buy a lot of BTC) and the entire thing grows more and more suspicious. Now one is searching for an explanation how a scam would work, and is so far not convinced by anything, but just weighing all the options. Some people get paid back, why would a scammer do this? So surely it must be valid? But now one szenario almost jumps at you: a Ponzi Scheme. There are:

• Ridiculously high interest rates
• Forced withdrawals
• Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money
• Appearance of a shadow team which noone has seen so far
• No explanation where the interest comes from or about the operation in general

and the list continues, just walk around on the forum and open your eyes.

Surely there cannot be any proof. There is always the chance that there is some explanation to all of this, some extremely non-standard, complex solution. However, if you meet someone on the street and he tells you not only some fake story, but that "there is a reason to explain this, now give me your money and wait here, i will come back in a week and give it back and even more!", will you really take out your wallet?

[dropt]

• Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Pirate's name is public, a basic google search will give you the name of his licensed business and its registered address.

[hongus]

Even if it is a ponzi, the plan is to make all the money before he dissapears

[Raoul Duke]

• Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Let me do it for you...
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Unknown/Unknown/gpumax-technologies-llc/101278778.aspx

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name

Updated 6/23/2012 - This profile of Gpumax Technologies, LLC was created using data from Texas Secretary of State

[dropt]

• Noone (yet) has anything to hold pirateat40 by, no name, no address. Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Let me do it for you...
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Unknown/Unknown/gpumax-technologies-llc/101278778.aspx

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name

Updated 6/23/2012 - This profile of Gpumax Technologies, LLC was created using data from Texas Secretary of State

Interesting.  Not the company I was referencing though.

[rjk]

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name

Why?

[Raoul Duke]

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name

Why?

Sarcasm
Why do you think I inserted the quote about the data being taken from the Texas Secretary of State?

[rjk]

I'm pretty sure it's a fake name

Why?

Sarcasm
Why do you think I inserted the quote about the data being taken from the Texas Secretary of State?

Damn internets. I want to meet all of you guys in a huge stadium somewhere, that would fix the issues with sarcasm once and for all! Imagine all the noise and shouting lol.

[Hecate]

Thanks for pointing out that he said a name and seemingly valid, registered LLC. Still, i assumed that considering there are many people in favor of BS&T someone would address other points than fixating on me not knowing that he did. It is an interesting side thing though, I might take the time and check whether he really is that person.

Even if it is a ponzi, the plan is to make all the money before he dissapears

Taken you hit the precise point to withdraw before he runs away with all your money.

[Raoul Duke]

Thanks for pointing out that he said a name and seemingly valid, registered LLC. Still, i assumed that considering there are many people in favor of BS&T someone would address other points than fixating on me not knowing that he did. It is an interesting side thing though, I might take the time and check whether he really is that person.

Why would you do that?
Do you have any money invested on any of his projects?
What's your interest?

[bulanula]

Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Well at least SOMEONE gets it.

If you buy anything with BTC you can be screwed hard because it is not reversible.

Also, since BTC is not legally property but in the same legal region as WOW Gold, nobody can do a damn thing if 1 million of it is stolen by some Texan dood.

[imsaguy]

Even if one had, with BTC he can just leave the country and never be seen again in case there are no securities for any of the money

Well at least SOMEONE gets it.

If you buy anything with BTC you can be screwed hard because it is not reversible.

Also, since BTC is not legally property but in the same legal region as WOW Gold, nobody can do a damn thing if 1 million of it is stolen by some Texan dood.

Here we are again, going in circles.  This just isn't true.

[Hecate]

@imsaguy: Could you show me my mistake, for example a normal and plausible explanation for the 7% weekly interest rate?

@psy: Curiosity. If he was really running a ponzi, it would be awkward to tell his identity. Escaping to another country is surely still possible, but involves a lot of trouble. It would make me have to think again why he would do that.

[Vladimir]

The logic is undeniable.

1. An operation can be either a ponzi or not a ponzi.
2. It cannot be a not ponzi.
3. Therefore, it is a ponzi.

I hope there is no one around here who would argue assertion 1.
I also hope that there is no one around here who would argue (conditionally on 2 being true) assertion 3.

At the same time it is painfully obvious that assertion 2 is true to anyone with a modicum of common sense and/or any decent education and/or practical experience in trading and financials.

Of course, exactly that assertion 2 is usually strongly contested by ponzi funboys (MOST of whom have financial incentive to promote the ponzi) and as such their ability to see past dollar signs is highly suspect.

Now if you believe that an operation which  needs to continually borrow at >3000% APR and conforms to most if not all of the classic signs of a pre default poinzi is not a ponzi, I pity you.

If you publicly claim or imply that an operation which needs to continually borrow at >3000% APR and conforms to most if not all of the classic signs of a pre default poinzi is not a ponzi, I despise you.

Edit: BTW, hazek, a good one on schrodinger's cat.   And I known that my argument contradicts yours. Damn quantum physics is so illogical. But note that inevitable ponzi's default does not turn a non ponzi to a ponzi. Right now, where we know the secret for sure or not,  there cannot exists both underlying economic activity producing >3000% ROI and underlying economic activity producing way less than 3000% ROI. A ponzi is a ponzi is a ponzi, unlike photon is wave is a particle.

[Raoul Duke]

The logic is undeniable.

1. It can be either ponzi or not ponzi.
2. It cannot be a not ponzi.
3. Therefore, it is ponzi.

I hope there is no one around here who would argue assertion 1.
I also hope that there is no one around here should would argue (conditionally on 2 being true) assertion 3.

At the same time it is painfully obvious to anyone with a brain and/or any decent education and/or practical experience in trading and financials that assertion 2 is true.

Of course, exactly that assertion 2 is usually strongly contested by ponzi funboys (MOST of whom have financial incentive to promote the ponzi) and as such their ability to see past dollar signs is highly suspect.

Now if you believe that an operation which  needs to continually borrow at >3000% APR and conforms to most if not all of the classic signs of a pre default poinzi is not a ponzi, I pity you.

If you publicly claim or imply that an operation which needs to continually borrow at >3000% APR and conforms to most if not all of the classic signs of a pre default poinzi is not a ponzi, I despise you.

If you lost less time spewing shit about things on which you clearly have no vested interest in maybe you would release your monthly magazine once a month.
I bet those subscribers are already waiting for the June and July issues. Oh, wait... It's a fucking ponzizine and it already went bust after the first month!

[Vladimir]

The logic is undeniable.
...

If you lost less time spewing shit about things on which you clearly have no vested interest in maybe you would release your monthly magazine once a month.
I bet those subscribers are already waiting for the June and July issues. Oh, wait... It's a fucking ponzizine and it already got busted after the first month!

The logic is undeniable

Trying to deflect are we?

My post was intentionally constructed so that THE ONLY VALID WAY TO ARGUE IT is to argue the assertion 2

Yours, psy, futile attempt to argue it by bringing up some irrelevant nonsense (a logical fallacy) is telling more than you think it is.

[imsaguy]

@imsaguy: Could you show me my mistake, for example a normal and plausible explanation for the 7% weekly interest rate?

@psy: Curiosity. If he was really running a ponzi, it would be awkward to tell his identity. Escaping to another country is surely still possible, but involves a lot of trouble. It would make me have to think again why he would do that.

Review my posts.  I've already made a rather long explanation on how its possible but basically it was rejected because of Occam's razor.  Essentially, it was denied because there was an easier explanation.  People invoking that principle fail to realize what Occam was really going for but I didn't feel compelled to waste my time explaining it.

[Raoul Duke]

The logic is undeniable.
...

If you lost less time spewing shit about things on which you clearly have no vested interest in maybe you would release your monthly magazine once a month.
I bet those subscribers are already waiting for the June and July issues. Oh, wait... It's a fucking ponzizine and it already got busted after the first month!

The logic is undeniable

Trying to deflect are we?

My post was intentionally constructed so that THE ONLY VALID WAY TO ARGUE IT is to argue the assertion 2

Yours, psy, futile attempt to argue it by bringing up some irrelevant nonsense (a logical fallacy) is telling more than you think it is.

Pirate never failed with what he promised to the ones who trust(ed) him. You and your team, on the other hand...
That tells me everything I need to know.

[Vladimir]

The logic is undeniable.
...

If you lost less time spewing shit about things on which you clearly have no vested interest in maybe you would release your monthly magazine once a month.
I bet those subscribers are already waiting for the June and July issues. Oh, wait... It's a fucking ponzizine and it already got busted after the first month!

The logic is undeniable

Trying to deflect are we?

My post was intentionally constructed so that THE ONLY VALID WAY TO ARGUE IT is to argue the assertion 2

Yours, psy, futile attempt to argue it by bringing up some irrelevant nonsense (a logical fallacy) is telling more than you think it is.

Pirate never failed with what he promised to the ones who trust(ed) him. You and your team, on the other hand...
That tells me everything I need to know.

It tells me everything I need to know too. Some produce a product and create value, a process which is subject to uncertainty, other don't.

Just note how your naive argument is actually making my assertion 3 (it is a ponzi) stronger, by effectively supporting assertion 2.

Your post also tells a lot about some typical characteristics of FANBOYS.

[imsaguy]

FUNBOYS

Close, but no cigar.  The term is "Fanboys".

[myrkul]

Here's what I got from this thread:

Schrodinger's cat is in the black box, and you don't know whether it's alive or dead until you open it.

Your BTC is in Pirate's black box, and you don't know whether it's a Ponzi or not until it finishes.

Smart pet owner does not put cat in black box. Neither does smart investor put money in black box.

[Serge]

Vladimir, why are you upset over this?

[imsaguy]

Here's what I got from this thread:

Schrodinger's cat is in the black box, and you don't know whether it's alive or dead until you open it.

Your BTC is in Pirate's black box, and you don't know whether it's a Ponzi or not until it finishes.

Smart pet owner does not put cat in black box. Neither does smart investor put money in black box.

You invest in a company, say Enron.  Do you really know what they are doing with your money? You're going on what their reports say and what the auditors say.  Come to find out, you're wrong.  Guess you shouldn't invest in stocks. 

You invest in gold, but you don't know if its going up or down.  Sure there's only a finite known supply, but you never know when people might start dumping or a new undiscovered vein is found.   Guess you shouldn't invest in precious metals.

[myrkul]

Here's what I got from this thread:

Schrodinger's cat is in the black box, and you don't know whether it's alive or dead until you open it.

Your BTC is in Pirate's black box, and you don't know whether it's a Ponzi or not until it finishes.

Smart pet owner does not put cat in black box. Neither does smart investor put money in black box.

You invest in a company, say Enron.  Do you really know what they are doing with your money? You're going on what their reports say and what the auditors say.  Come to find out, you're wrong.  Guess you shouldn't invest in stocks. 

You invest in gold, but you don't know if its going up or down.  Sure there's only a finite known supply, but you never know when people might start dumping or a new undiscovered vein is found.   Guess you shouldn't invest in precious metals.

Fair point. You never really know what someone is doing with your money, unless that someone is you. But Pirate's Big Black Box Of Money-making(r) doesn't even give you the courtesy of telling you anything. At least Enron's investors got the benefit of a nice show for their money. You guys get to look at a big black box. I'm not saying it is a ponzi, I'm not saying it isn't. What I am saying is that for my money, A box I can see into (even if that box might just have a pretty picture painted on the inside) is safer. You guys do what you want. I'm not touching it.

[Hunterbunter]

Right now, where we know the secret for sure or not,  there cannot exists both underlying economic activity producing >3000% ROI and underlying economic activity producing way less than 3000% ROI. A ponzi is a ponzi is a ponzi, unlike photon is wave is a particle.

I believe the amount that pirate claims he earns is actually 10% per week, but that 3% is cashed out (or some such), which is why he doesn't need to reinvest his own principle.

While it doesn't quite make the total ROI 14,000%, it does make it more than 3300%.

[imsaguy]

Fair point. You never really know what someone is doing with your money, unless that someone is you. But Pirate's Big Black Box Of Money-making(r) doesn't even give you the courtesy of telling you anything. At least Enron's investors got the benefit of a nice show for their money. You guys get to look at a big black box. I'm not saying it is a ponzi, I'm not saying it isn't. What I am saying is that for my money, A box I can see into (even if that box might just have a pretty picture painted on the inside) is safer. You guys do what you want. I'm not touching it.

So you're saying you'd feel better if Pirate told you some story rather than tell you nothing at all?  "Lie to me, don't just say nothing"  

[imsaguy]

imsaguy wants 1.5%/day on his loans.

huh?

[myrkul]

So you're saying you'd feel better if Pirate told you some story rather than tell you nothing at all?  "Lie to me, don't just say nothing"  

Well, you put it that way, it sounds silly, but yes, essentially. At least go through the motions of making a believable mechanism that spits out the cash. Of course, that opens up the mechanism to being scrutinized, and it would take a clever Mechanical Turk indeed to fool everyone. Thus why a black box arouses more suspicion than one I can see into.

[imsaguy]

So you're saying you'd feel better if Pirate told you some story rather than tell you nothing at all?  "Lie to me, don't just say nothing"  

Well, you put it that way, it sounds silly, but yes, essentially. At least go through the motions of making a believable mechanism that spits out the cash. Of course, that opens up the mechanism to being scrutinized, and it would take a clever Mechanical Turk indeed to fool everyone. Thus why a black box arouses more suspicion than one I can see into.

Perhaps he's opted for black box, because everything that does get released/discovered is analyzed to the Nth degree and even when there's a perfectly legit/legal reason, people seem to cling to the more nefarious.

[myrkul]

Perhaps he's opted for black box, because everything that does get released/discovered is analyzed to the Nth degree and even when there's a perfectly legit/legal reason, people seem to cling to the more nefarious.

Well, that backfired, didn't it?

[imsaguy]

Perhaps he's opted for black box, because everything that does get released/discovered is analyzed to the Nth degree and even when there's a perfectly legit/legal reason, people seem to cling to the more nefarious.

Well, that backfired, didn't it?

Not really.  One way or the other, people would bitch.  He opted to not waste the effort.

[payb.tc]

didn't read the whole thread but even if it were 100% proven...

proven ponzi != everyone will lose their money

i like how psy called the OP 'logicman'

[Hunterbunter]

So you're saying you'd feel better if Pirate told you some story rather than tell you nothing at all?  "Lie to me, don't just say nothing"  

Well, you put it that way, it sounds silly, but yes, essentially. At least go through the motions of making a believable mechanism that spits out the cash. Of course, that opens up the mechanism to being scrutinized, and it would take a clever Mechanical Turk indeed to fool everyone. Thus why a black box arouses more suspicion than one I can see into.

I agree that while on the surface more information allows the truth of a lie to become more apparent, human psychology still works against it. Pirate has told many stories already, and that's what very few people are scrutinizing. They're wonderful stories, though, which make people feel good to believe. Most people don't realize just how much control their emotions have on their decision making.

It will possibly help those people who are smart (or emotionless) enough to even bother scrutinizing, but the vast majority of people who, for example, still take the bible literally or the existence of Gods seriously, it's more important to be part of the story than it is being right. Our brains are wired this way, perhaps because there is safety in numbers.

The people who would scrutinize the information / story given, are the same people that wouldn't invest in a black box now due to the insane unpredictability / gamble of it. Do you invest with pirate now? Would you invest more with more information? Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

[myrkul]

Perhaps he's opted for black box, because everything that does get released/discovered is analyzed to the Nth degree and even when there's a perfectly legit/legal reason, people seem to cling to the more nefarious.

Well, that backfired, didn't it?

Not really.  One way or the other, people would bitch.  He opted to not waste the effort.

The question is, did he not waste the effort of reporting, or not waste the effort of concocting a story?

Either way, I don't have a dog in the race, nor, for that matter, a dog to put in the race. If I did, though, I wouldn't stick him in a black box. Call me cautious, call me what you will, but I like to at least have some idea of what is going on inside the box.

[myrkul]

Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

[imsaguy]

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

There you go again.  As people keep reinvesting coins, the price will go up as pirate has to continually source coins to pay interest.  As price goes up, people will naturally be inclined to withdraw and sell.  At some point, there will be an equilibrium.  That or pirate won't make anymore money because the price of bitcoins is so darned high and he returns everyone's coins.

As to actually making 7% a week, there have been several ways mentioned in the past by different people and they were all ignored.  "That's not what pirate's doing, pirate said he was doing something else".  Well if 2 or 3 different ways earning 7% a week were revealed, surely there are more.  Its no longer an impossibility.  It isn't pirate's job to teach you ways to find high margin businesses.

[myrkul]

There you go again.  As people keep reinvesting coins, the price will go up as pirate has to continually source coins to pay interest.  As price goes up, people will naturally be inclined to withdraw and sell.  At some point, there will be an equilibrium.  That or pirate won't make anymore money because the price of bitcoins is so darned high and he returns everyone's coins.

I hope this is exactly what happens. I hope everyone comes out of this squeaky clean and ten times richer. I hope Pirate's not running a Ponzi. Of course what I hope will happen does not always coincide with what will happen. We shall see.

[drakahn]

Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

It isn't, either the interest rates will drop, accounts will be limited/forced withdraw, the program ends or people stop reinvesting

[Hunterbunter]

Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

Yeah assuming it's all legitimate, the ability to source coins for interest in a capped market will crush the rate of interest he will be able to pay. That's fine, and if its based on actual profits, the lenders will benefit reducing amounts based on the actual flow of coins through the economy. Exponential growth is only a problem if people expect it to continue, but he's said he'll reduce it as necessary to cover his ability to make profit, etc, and soon it will be reduced to 3.8% or w/e. That could either be due to it be more difficult to source coins to expand the ponzi, a lower ability to cover loans based on existing speculated funds, or a fixed USD payment amount being spread to more coins.

If it's all one great big story though, it won't matter whether you can see through the glass box or not, if the information you're getting about the box is going through pirate first. You need an independent source of information for it to be useful.

There are too many things that just don't add up about the whole operation, imo, so that's why I got out.

[Vladimir]

Vladimir, why are you upset over this?

Not upset, but disgusted.

[Hecate]

Review my posts.  I've already made a rather long explanation on how its possible but basically it was rejected because of Occam's razor.  Essentially, it was denied because there was an easier explanation.  People invoking that principle fail to realize what Occam was really going for but I didn't feel compelled to waste my time explaining it.

I have shortly looked at the first ten pages of your last posts and didnt find anything. Iirc there was something about "large players wanting to buy big amounts (of bitcoin)" once but i already discussed that in my first reply here. So please link me to the second or third method or show me why my refusal of the "large players wanting to buy big amounts" is wrong.

[imsaguy]

Review my posts.  I've already made a rather long explanation on how its possible but basically it was rejected because of Occam's razor.  Essentially, it was denied because there was an easier explanation.  People invoking that principle fail to realize what Occam was really going for but I didn't feel compelled to waste my time explaining it.

I have shortly looked at the first ten pages of your last posts and didnt find anything. Iirc there was something about "large players wanting to buy big amounts (of bitcoin)" once but i already discussed that in my first reply here. So please link me to the second or third method or show me why my refusal of the "large players wanting to buy big amounts" is wrong.

Nah, I'm done.  Its become clear that you're willing to waste an inordinate amount of your time to attempt to prove your opinion and lacking at it.  I have much better uses of my time.  I didn't claim to have written all of the reasons, people like PH and others have also given reasons and those were also ignored.

[imsaguy]

[mp420]

Pirate never failed with what he promised to the ones who trust(ed) him.

This is EXACTLY how you're supposed to run a ponzi scheme. You keep your promises until the total of the actual borrowed funds ceases to grow. How can you not see this?

It might even be that when he finally defaults, he doesn't disappear but blames it on someone hacking into his system and stealing all the coins. So, the true believers will continue to believe he's legit, even if he "lost" their money.

[Vladimir]

Pirate never failed with what he promised to the ones who trust(ed) him.

This is EXACTLY how you're supposed to run a ponzi scheme. You keep your promises until the total of the actual borrowed funds ceases to grow. How can you not see this?

It might even be that when he finally defaults, he doesn't disappear but blames it on someone hacking into his system and stealing all the coins. So, the true believers will continue to believe he's legit, even if he "lost" their money.

This is indeed seems to be THE biz model for many Bitcoin businesses these days:
- Start some service that involves people sending you lots of BTC for "safekeeping" or under some other pretense;
- Be an upstanding gentleman;
- Keep all your promises;
- Have someone like Bruce Wagner promoting you;
- Once you have enough BTC in your wallet, get hacked or manufacture some other calamity;
- Optionally, pay some of it back;
- Profit.

How disgusting.

Here, I have another wild theory/speculation. Pirate40 = Bruce Wagner. LOL

[Rygon]

It's simply not possible to prove it isn't a ponzi, any sane person would ignore the accusations at this point. And since no one can prove he IS running a ponzi, everything is just wild speculation.

[rjk]

Interesting - when BFL was still vaporware around January, it was Bittenbob that was absolutely and rabidly trashing them without the slightest reserve, and was proven wrong and went away.
Now it's Vladimir doing the same sort of thing to Pirateat40 with all the conviction of an informed person, and none of the proof.

It seems like the upper cabal of Bitcoiners consists of some of the most vocal and bloodthirsty, and by "upper cabal", I mean Magazine staff, developers of other vaporware like Ellet, and numerous other projects and things that like to be pre-announced for some reason without a product in hand. I hardly know what to make of it, but it's disturbing.

[imsaguy]

Interesting - when BFL was still vaporware around January, it was Bittenbob that was absolutely and rabidly trashing them without the slightest reserve, and was proven wrong and went away.
Now it's Vladimir doing the same sort of thing to Pirateat40 with all the conviction of an informed person, and none of the proof.

It seems like the upper cabal of Bitcoiners consists of some of the most vocal and bloodthirsty, and by "upper cabal", I mean Magazine staff, developers of other vaporware like Ellet, and numerous other projects and things that like to be pre-announced for some reason without a product in hand. I hardly know what to make of it, but it's disturbing.

Money, status, and nerds.  Competitive undersocialization is a bastard, especially in a perceived zero-sum environment.

Pretend it's Lord of the Flies and you'll realize anarchy and decentralization last for a short while, until organizations eventually coalesce, not necessarily among the most sane, capable, or reasonable foci, but the ones that provide a "security" of some type.

Crazy-ass shut-ins are clawing at each other with no dignity, forming "alliances" based on their desire to bring down an alpha.

In case you were wondering, I'm Liam Neeson in The Grey.  With a much bigger tonker.  Come with me if you want to die.

Its funny you mention this, because I liken this all to Monty Python.  I'm calling dibbs on the grenade right now and I get to be the rabbit.

[myrkul]

It seems like the upper cabal of Bitcoiners consists of some of the most vocal and bloodthirsty, and by "upper cabal", I mean Magazine staff, developers of other vaporware like Ellet, and numerous other projects and things that like to be pre-announced for some reason without a product in hand. I hardly know what to make of it, but it's disturbing.

Money, status, and nerds.  Competitive undersocialization is a bastard, especially in a perceived zero-sum environment.

"Money, Status, and Nerds" is the name of my new Devo cover group.

[Vladimir]

"Upper Cabal", lol. I do like this. Note that we have our bases of operation in or near Seoul, London and New-York, this strongly indicates  that The Council of Venice must be involved.
 

[Shadow383]

Right now, where we know the secret for sure or not,  there cannot exists both underlying economic activity producing >3000% ROI and underlying economic activity producing way less than 3000% ROI. A ponzi is a ponzi is a ponzi, unlike photon is wave is a particle.

I believe the amount that pirate claims he earns is actually 10% per week, but that 3% is cashed out (or some such), which is why he doesn't need to reinvest his own principle.

While it doesn't quite make the total ROI 14,000%, it does make it more than 3300%.

This makes it yet more ludicrous.

If you are genuinely making 10% per week, what sort of drooling retard wouldn't reinvest their own capital?
Once again, it makes absolutely no sense if you're running a legit business. But it's perfect if you're running a ponzi.

As long as nobody is losing their shirt over this, fine, but I bet someone will...


It's a pretty good scheme though - Buy coin in vast quantities, use it to pay for hashing at large public pools, directing payouts to yourself for nice clean coins, then when you dump the whole thing you've got the clean coins and your "investors" are left with nothing.

So, if anyone here has big money with pirate - what would you do if he disappeared tomorrow?

[ErebusBat]

So, if anyone here has big money with pirate - what would you do if he disappeared tomorrow?

Be pissed for a day... then move on.

Nobody that has money with pirate is under the delusion that it is risk free, far from it.  But high risk=high reward.  I certainly don't want to see my coins disappear, but if they do I will still eat, still pay my bills, and still goto the movies.  But if they do not disappear.... I will still do ALL of that, just more of it

[guruvan]

I find it amusing that people have zero real concept of what pirate does. he says it's so simple you'll all kick yourself for not doing it yourselves. I think he's right.

I find it amusing that people find it hard to imagine how a growth curve like bitcoin's can provide such significant returns. Obviously none have seen the ROI venture capitalists receive on their startup investments.

Pirate is running a HYIP, this is for sure. High yield usually comes with high risk. HYIP programs often are run as ponzi schemes, but certainly not always.

High risk, likely with highly leveraged trading can lead to significant drawdown if the trader makes poor decisions. This can collapse a non-ponzi HYIP.

But, really - why do people get so upset at other people risking their capital?

[hazek]

I believe this thread was alive long enough and am locking it now.

The OP is a thought experiment not in any way shape or form an actual proof of anything and it meant to show that those who "invest" or defend the practices of pirateat40 will some of the time be doing so while BS&T actually being a ponzi scheme. I still for the life of me can't understand what kind of principles people live by that allow them that kind of mentality and behavior but oh well I have no doubt the market will eventually sort it all out.

A fool and his money are soon parted, and there's probably nothing little ol me can do about that.