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Author Topic: 100% proof pirate runs a ponzi (thought experiment)  (Read 7783 times)
myrkul
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July 08, 2012, 04:59:03 AM
 #81

Perhaps he's opted for black box, because everything that does get released/discovered is analyzed to the Nth degree and even when there's a perfectly legit/legal reason, people seem to cling to the more nefarious.

Well, that backfired, didn't it?

Not really.  One way or the other, people would bitch.  He opted to not waste the effort.

The question is, did he not waste the effort of reporting, or not waste the effort of concocting a story? Wink

Either way, I don't have a dog in the race, nor, for that matter, a dog to put in the race. If I did, though, I wouldn't stick him in a black box. Call me cautious, call me what you will, but I like to at least have some idea of what is going on inside the box.

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myrkul
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July 08, 2012, 05:08:56 AM
 #82

Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

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July 08, 2012, 05:31:33 AM
 #83

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

There you go again.  As people keep reinvesting coins, the price will go up as pirate has to continually source coins to pay interest.  As price goes up, people will naturally be inclined to withdraw and sell.  At some point, there will be an equilibrium.  That or pirate won't make anymore money because the price of bitcoins is so darned high and he returns everyone's coins.

As to actually making 7% a week, there have been several ways mentioned in the past by different people and they were all ignored.  "That's not what pirate's doing, pirate said he was doing something else".  Well if 2 or 3 different ways earning 7% a week were revealed, surely there are more.  Its no longer an impossibility.  It isn't pirate's job to teach you ways to find high margin businesses.

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July 08, 2012, 05:41:46 AM
 #84

There you go again.  As people keep reinvesting coins, the price will go up as pirate has to continually source coins to pay interest.  As price goes up, people will naturally be inclined to withdraw and sell.  At some point, there will be an equilibrium.  That or pirate won't make anymore money because the price of bitcoins is so darned high and he returns everyone's coins.

I hope this is exactly what happens. I hope everyone comes out of this squeaky clean and ten times richer. I hope Pirate's not running a Ponzi. Of course what I hope will happen does not always coincide with what will happen. We shall see.

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July 08, 2012, 05:57:25 AM
 #85

Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

It isn't, either the interest rates will drop, accounts will be limited/forced withdraw, the program ends or people stop reinvesting

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July 08, 2012, 06:44:38 AM
 #86

Are you looking for justification to invest because you want to believe it's possible to earn this much?

I'd like to know how it's possible to get this much out. If the numbers posted earlier are correct (which I'm not saying they are), over half of all bitcoins ever will be eventually involved in this thing, which is most, if not all, of them in existence now.

Basically, exponential growth is always suspect, and being told "Don't worry about how I do it, just sit back and enjoy the cashflow" makes me wonder a little more.

Yeah assuming it's all legitimate, the ability to source coins for interest in a capped market will crush the rate of interest he will be able to pay. That's fine, and if its based on actual profits, the lenders will benefit reducing amounts based on the actual flow of coins through the economy. Exponential growth is only a problem if people expect it to continue, but he's said he'll reduce it as necessary to cover his ability to make profit, etc, and soon it will be reduced to 3.8% or w/e. That could either be due to it be more difficult to source coins to expand the ponzi, a lower ability to cover loans based on existing speculated funds, or a fixed USD payment amount being spread to more coins.

If it's all one great big story though, it won't matter whether you can see through the glass box or not, if the information you're getting about the box is going through pirate first. You need an independent source of information for it to be useful.

There are too many things that just don't add up about the whole operation, imo, so that's why I got out.
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July 08, 2012, 10:45:57 AM
 #87

Vladimir, why are you upset over this?

Not upset, but disgusted.


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July 08, 2012, 01:15:37 PM
 #88

Review my posts.  I've already made a rather long explanation on how its possible but basically it was rejected because of Occam's razor.  Essentially, it was denied because there was an easier explanation.  People invoking that principle fail to realize what Occam was really going for but I didn't feel compelled to waste my time explaining it.

I have shortly looked at the first ten pages of your last posts and didnt find anything. Iirc there was something about "large players wanting to buy big amounts (of bitcoin)" once but i already discussed that in my first reply here. So please link me to the second or third method or show me why my refusal of the "large players wanting to buy big amounts" is wrong.
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July 08, 2012, 04:48:14 PM
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Review my posts.  I've already made a rather long explanation on how its possible but basically it was rejected because of Occam's razor.  Essentially, it was denied because there was an easier explanation.  People invoking that principle fail to realize what Occam was really going for but I didn't feel compelled to waste my time explaining it.

I have shortly looked at the first ten pages of your last posts and didnt find anything. Iirc there was something about "large players wanting to buy big amounts (of bitcoin)" once but i already discussed that in my first reply here. So please link me to the second or third method or show me why my refusal of the "large players wanting to buy big amounts" is wrong.

Nah, I'm done.  Its become clear that you're willing to waste an inordinate amount of your time to attempt to prove your opinion and lacking at it.  I have much better uses of my time.  I didn't claim to have written all of the reasons, people like PH and others have also given reasons and those were also ignored.

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July 08, 2012, 05:56:23 PM
 #90


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July 12, 2012, 09:49:45 AM
 #91

Pirate never failed with what he promised to the ones who trust(ed) him.

This is EXACTLY how you're supposed to run a ponzi scheme. You keep your promises until the total of the actual borrowed funds ceases to grow. How can you not see this?

It might even be that when he finally defaults, he doesn't disappear but blames it on someone hacking into his system and stealing all the coins. So, the true believers will continue to believe he's legit, even if he "lost" their money.
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July 12, 2012, 10:17:54 AM
 #92

Pirate never failed with what he promised to the ones who trust(ed) him.

This is EXACTLY how you're supposed to run a ponzi scheme. You keep your promises until the total of the actual borrowed funds ceases to grow. How can you not see this?

It might even be that when he finally defaults, he doesn't disappear but blames it on someone hacking into his system and stealing all the coins. So, the true believers will continue to believe he's legit, even if he "lost" their money.

This is indeed seems to be THE biz model for many Bitcoin businesses these days:
- Start some service that involves people sending you lots of BTC for "safekeeping" or under some other pretense;
- Be an upstanding gentleman;
- Keep all your promises;
- Have someone like Bruce Wagner promoting you;
- Once you have enough BTC in your wallet, get hacked or manufacture some other calamity;
- Optionally, pay some of it back;
- Profit.

How disgusting.

Here, I have another wild theory/speculation. Pirate40 = Bruce Wagner. LOL


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July 12, 2012, 04:52:42 PM
 #93

It's simply not possible to prove it isn't a ponzi, any sane person would ignore the accusations at this point. And since no one can prove he IS running a ponzi, everything is just wild speculation.
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July 12, 2012, 05:03:48 PM
 #94

Interesting - when BFL was still vaporware around January, it was Bittenbob that was absolutely and rabidly trashing them without the slightest reserve, and was proven wrong and went away.
Now it's Vladimir doing the same sort of thing to Pirateat40 with all the conviction of an informed person, and none of the proof.

It seems like the upper cabal of Bitcoiners consists of some of the most vocal and bloodthirsty, and by "upper cabal", I mean Magazine staff, developers of other vaporware like Ellet, and numerous other projects and things that like to be pre-announced for some reason without a product in hand. I hardly know what to make of it, but it's disturbing.

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July 12, 2012, 05:28:00 PM
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Interesting - when BFL was still vaporware around January, it was Bittenbob that was absolutely and rabidly trashing them without the slightest reserve, and was proven wrong and went away.
Now it's Vladimir doing the same sort of thing to Pirateat40 with all the conviction of an informed person, and none of the proof.

It seems like the upper cabal of Bitcoiners consists of some of the most vocal and bloodthirsty, and by "upper cabal", I mean Magazine staff, developers of other vaporware like Ellet, and numerous other projects and things that like to be pre-announced for some reason without a product in hand. I hardly know what to make of it, but it's disturbing.

Money, status, and nerds.  Competitive undersocialization is a bastard, especially in a perceived zero-sum environment.

Pretend it's Lord of the Flies and you'll realize anarchy and decentralization last for a short while, until organizations eventually coalesce, not necessarily among the most sane, capable, or reasonable foci, but the ones that provide a "security" of some type.

Crazy-ass shut-ins are clawing at each other with no dignity, forming "alliances" based on their desire to bring down an alpha.

In case you were wondering, I'm Liam Neeson in The Grey.  With a much bigger tonker.  Come with me if you want to die.

Its funny you mention this, because I liken this all to Monty Python.  I'm calling dibbs on the grenade right now and I get to be the rabbit.

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myrkul
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July 12, 2012, 05:33:13 PM
 #96

It seems like the upper cabal of Bitcoiners consists of some of the most vocal and bloodthirsty, and by "upper cabal", I mean Magazine staff, developers of other vaporware like Ellet, and numerous other projects and things that like to be pre-announced for some reason without a product in hand. I hardly know what to make of it, but it's disturbing.

Money, status, and nerds.  Competitive undersocialization is a bastard, especially in a perceived zero-sum environment.

"Money, Status, and Nerds" is the name of my new Devo cover group.

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July 12, 2012, 06:03:14 PM
 #97

"Upper Cabal", lol. I do like this. Note that we have our bases of operation in or near Seoul, London and New-York, this strongly indicates  that The Council of Venice must be involved.
 Wink



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July 13, 2012, 02:29:36 PM
 #98

Right now, where we know the secret for sure or not,  there cannot exists both underlying economic activity producing >3000% ROI and underlying economic activity producing way less than 3000% ROI. A ponzi is a ponzi is a ponzi, unlike photon is wave is a particle.

I believe the amount that pirate claims he earns is actually 10% per week, but that 3% is cashed out (or some such), which is why he doesn't need to reinvest his own principle.

While it doesn't quite make the total ROI 14,000%, it does make it more than 3300%.
This makes it yet more ludicrous.

If you are genuinely making 10% per week, what sort of drooling retard wouldn't reinvest their own capital?
Once again, it makes absolutely no sense if you're running a legit business. But it's perfect if you're running a ponzi.

As long as nobody is losing their shirt over this, fine, but I bet someone will...


It's a pretty good scheme though - Buy coin in vast quantities, use it to pay for hashing at large public pools, directing payouts to yourself for nice clean coins, then when you dump the whole thing you've got the clean coins and your "investors" are left with nothing.

So, if anyone here has big money with pirate - what would you do if he disappeared tomorrow?
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July 13, 2012, 02:55:53 PM
 #99

So, if anyone here has big money with pirate - what would you do if he disappeared tomorrow?
Be pissed for a day... then move on.

Nobody that has money with pirate is under the delusion that it is risk free, far from it.  But high risk=high reward.  I certainly don't want to see my coins disappear, but if they do I will still eat, still pay my bills, and still goto the movies.  But if they do not disappear.... I will still do ALL of that, just more of it Wink

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July 13, 2012, 04:19:09 PM
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I find it amusing that people have zero real concept of what pirate does. he says it's so simple you'll all kick yourself for not doing it yourselves. I think he's right.

I find it amusing that people find it hard to imagine how a growth curve like bitcoin's can provide such significant returns. Obviously none have seen the ROI venture capitalists receive on their startup investments.

Pirate is running a HYIP, this is for sure. High yield usually comes with high risk. HYIP programs often are run as ponzi schemes, but certainly not always.

High risk, likely with highly leveraged trading can lead to significant drawdown if the trader makes poor decisions. This can collapse a non-ponzi HYIP.

But, really - why do people get so upset at other people risking their capital?

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