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Author Topic: 100% proof pirate runs a ponzi (thought experiment)  (Read 7781 times)
nimda
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July 05, 2012, 06:14:09 PM
 #21

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

If it can be a ponzi it is a ponzi some of the time -> 100% proof.
Bullshit. "If it can be legit it is legit some of the time -> 100% proof it's not a ponzi."

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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July 05, 2012, 06:14:43 PM
 #22

1. Spend couple of months trading #bitcoin-OTC and bitcointalk to build reputation with constructed ninjaat40 identity
2. Offer 10% per week saying you do "Market Arbitrage" and "Private Loans To Network Members"
3. Watch pirate investor money flow to ninja

How can we prove that the ninjaat40 is a ponzi op?

If it can be it is some of time.

But we can't prove that is this time, unless we get a peek behind the curtain - that's the only way to know that.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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July 05, 2012, 06:17:16 PM
 #23

That's exactly what I was going for with my OP.. Any suggestions how I can edit it to make it clearer?

The thread title is thoroughly misleading.

There is, in fact, zero proof that pirate runs a ponzi.

(however, as you and others have pointed out, there is zero proof that it is not a ponzi also)


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July 05, 2012, 06:17:58 PM
 #24

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

If it can be a ponzi it is a ponzi some of the time -> 100% proof.
Bullshit. "If it can be legit it is legit some of the time -> 100% proof it's not a ponzi."

Yes, both is true. Although I'm more concerned with the times it's a ponzi then I'm with the times it's legit.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
nimda
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July 05, 2012, 06:20:22 PM
 #25

Then you're being misleading. Taking the waveform of the deadcat and of the alive cat is not 100% proof that it's dead this time, and all I'm concened with is if it's dead this time.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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July 05, 2012, 06:21:40 PM
 #26

Then you're being misleading. Taking the waveform of the deadcat and of the alive cat is not 100% proof that it's dead this time, and all I'm concened with is if it's dead this time.

Where did I say "this time"?

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
hazek
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July 05, 2012, 06:24:11 PM
 #27

Again the nature of his business is in a super position of being both legit and a ponzi. Therefor until we find out it is a ponzi as well as legit - and that's my proof.

I think the disconnect is that you are telling me it's neither but I'm telling you it's both.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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July 05, 2012, 06:29:09 PM
 #28

So because I am not sure if you are male or female, you are both? Grin It's simply "unknown". We do not need proof, it is impossible to prove a ponzi until it collapses.

All we need is evidence, and we have plenty to tilt it in favor of ponzi.

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July 05, 2012, 07:11:52 PM
 #29

Horrible analogy.  Schrodinger's cat is guaranteed to be dead at some point due to the setup of the thought experiment.  Pirate's operation has no such guarantee of being a ponzi.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 05, 2012, 07:29:04 PM
 #30

I don't understand where is the 100% proof?
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July 05, 2012, 07:30:20 PM
 #31

I don't understand where is the 100% proof?
Floating around in the aether somewhere... possibly 100% proof AND 100% lie, given Schrodinger's cat!

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July 05, 2012, 07:33:23 PM
 #32

I don't understand where is the 100% proof?
Floating around in the aether somewhere... possibly 100% proof AND 100% lie, given Schrodinger's cat!

Mix in the microwave with a little bit of occam.

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July 05, 2012, 07:57:31 PM
 #33

As I understood Ponzi is a very instable system coming to an end rather soon, like fiat money but much faster. As all of us knows, money relocates from loosers to winners. And the first ones will win, the last ones will loose.

I'm somewhat stupid in mathematics, and cannot prove it a ponzi. But what about 3300% increase a year? Can somebody explain me?

Bangsters are better guys, I think. I not even want me seen on his customer's/lender's list.

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July 05, 2012, 08:00:29 PM
 #34

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

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July 05, 2012, 08:01:20 PM
 #35

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

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July 05, 2012, 08:06:36 PM
 #36

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

Try doing that with any bank ever.... same exact result will happen
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July 05, 2012, 08:08:23 PM
 #37

Actually, I wonder if Pirate could pay out all balances of his own accord simultaneously, and request that they all be paid back in as soon as possible so that the operation isn't affected too much.


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July 05, 2012, 08:08:26 PM
 #38

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

Try doing that with any bank ever.... same exact result will happen

Exactly.  If they are keeping everything in their vault, it isn't making them money which means they can't pay you unless they are a ponzi.  Your test could prove the exact opposite of what you think it will.

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July 05, 2012, 08:09:14 PM
 #39

Any suggestions how I can edit it to make it clearer?

As someone already told you, leave the quantum mechanics alone.

There is no certainty, or 100% proof, either way... that's why the term "uncertainty principle" is used
when talking about stuff happening at the quantum level...  and this issue is 'not' about stuff happening
at the quantum level.  

edit/ Things are uncertain in this case not because of the nature of the realm in which we are dealing...
but simply because of lack of data, at this particular moment. It is not out of the question that later
sufficient evidence may be found.   


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unclescrooge
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July 05, 2012, 08:09:46 PM
 #40

Hey,

How about a massive withdrawal day. It's a sure way to now if it's ponzy or not.

Come on guys, if you invested in pirate, then you "know" it's not  ponzy. So what the big deal: let's all withdraw our money, then, when we all have our coins and so the proof that pirate is legit, let's invest again?

Endless discussion are getting us nowhere. Let stess test pirate's, it's the only way to know.

LOL.  Try doing that with any of the 'banks' in the lending forums.  They're all fractional reserve and would buckle under a mass withdrawal.

In the end they should be able to reimburse everyone (if they're legit...)

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