The towel is in the ring.

[dinofelis]

If by "adoption" you mean merchants accepting USD payments from a BITCOIN DUMP though BitPay, or people using BTC as a store of value and losing 70% of its purchasing power in a year, then sure, "adoption".

That's a first, and necessary step: retailer adoption.  Of course they have to convert immediately to fiat, as their costs are billed in fiat.  This implies fast coin turnover, high velocity, and low bitcoin value.

Once this is generalized, and it becomes second nature to be able to buy stuff in bitcoin from retailers (implying low bitcoin price for this fundamental), then suppliers might be interested in being paid in bitcoin.  It may become interesting to receive part of one's salary in bitcoin (as most retailers accept it).
And *that* implies suddenly that not all retailer bills are in fiat.  That implies that retailers will not convert systematically all in fiat, because they can spend the coins themselves (in salaries, in bills of their suppliers....).

That will:
1) boost the amount of stuff bought with bitcoin
2) make holding times much longer

and hence imply much higher prices (longer holding times, and larger volumes of traded value).

At that point, if ever, bitcoin will have become a currency.  Price will then be determined by the monetary formula.

Bitcoin can also have other fundamentals, such as "store of value" a la gold, but I don't believe in that until people get much more confidence in it.

This is a multi-decade program.

[asdlolciterquit]

Now that the return of Bitstamp has proven not to boost the market in any way, i think its safe to say that even big players now realize it's done and only going down from here.

I think the return if Bitstamp was the only thing that could have boosted the value a little.
Why do people keep talking about 'but the fundamentals dare there', no they are not, that's why we have 200 altcoins that are almost every one of them better than bitcoin in at least one aspect.

Bitcoin has a fail mining approach, PoW.
Bitcoin mining is centralized.
Bitcoin has failed distribution.
Bitcoin has slow confirmations.
Bitcoin development has practically stopped.
Bitcoin blockchain is bulky, its 30gb how much if it would be adopted, impossible to sustain.
Most bitcoin transactions are of criminal nature.

Please tell me why you invest still?

Colored coins? Not going to happen.
Side Chains? Not going to happen.
EFT? Not going to happen.

Enlighten me oh holy permabulls.

maybe, it's ETF...and yes, it's going to happen!

[toknormal]

It's dead, it's done.

Bitcoiners, do you have any valid arguments that justify your efforts to get innocent people into this free falling clumsy mess of a pump&dump pyramid scheme?

What a complete load of dismissive cobblers.

Have a look back at the history of the bitcoin market. It's littered with posts like this all the way back to 2010. We got our rise in December 2013 and it's spent a year consolidating. So what ?

It took 10 years before buying an airline ticket with a web browser even began to become commonplace. It was probably another 5 years after that that it became the norm.

We're talking about money and the financial system here. Probably the most conservative and inertia oriented sector in all of humanity. The fact that people will pay any money at all for a string of characters that you can't spend anywhere except a tiny number of select establishments is a massive hole in the dam. The cat is out of the bag and it's not going back in now.

[DeadCoin]

There is still an opportunity to sell internet funny money close to $300, this shouldn't be taken for granted. One or two years from now, it will look like a bargain.

[de3mka]

has speculation always had many of these types of threads (2011-2012)? or did they not become common until 2013

No, there was a Newbie section where newbs had first to educate themselves and earn some activity points to be able to go to Speculation trollbox section.

[Amph]

When it takes less than 30,000 coins to knock us down to 0...

This is not an economy, it's an experiment

zero is not possible man, you know how much buyers will pop up if we even go below 100? let alone something crazy like 1-2, i know my self i would buy a tons

[Parazyd]

When it takes less than 30,000 coins to knock us down to 0...

This is not an economy, it's an experiment

zero is not possible man, you know how much buyers will pop up if we even go below 100? let alone something crazy like 1-2, i know my self i would buy a tons

This is what I've been saying for a long, long time, and why I was saying that sub-100 are cheap coins.

[kwukduck]

Still waiting for those convincing arguments guys...

[NotLambchop]

...
Until then, the Bitcoin price has nothing to do with Bitcoin. ...

Ergo, everyone who buys BTC with the expectation that the price will rise is simply retarded.

[dinofelis]

Ergo, everyone who buys BTC with the expectation that the price will rise is simply retarded.

Everyone who thinks that the price of bitcoin can rise without fundamentals such as merchant adoption, is retarded.

If generalized adoption occurs, and that will take decades, the price of bitcoin can be very very high.  But many thought that it was a matter of months or at most a year or so, inspired by the successive manipulations which pushed the price very high without any support.  As long as that increase was a self-fulfilling prophecy, things pumped up, but the last Gox manipulation over $1000 was too high to be sustained with the 10% inflation.

The long decay over more than a year has finally killed all hopes for "the $10 000 rally next month".  But that hope was the pump that made money flow in.

I think the speculative phase (fast to the moon) is now over, and that bitcoin will go to its fundamentals, based upon merchant adoption.

Nothing stops that adoption from pushing the price really very high.  The maximum being about $3 million, if all trade in the world is done in bitcoin.  That's however a multi-decade track.

[Eamorr]

Now that the return of Bitstamp has proven not to boost the market in any way, i think its safe to say that even big players now realize it's done and only going down from here.

I think the return if Bitstamp was the only thing that could have boosted the value a little.
Why do people keep talking about 'but the fundamentals dare there', no they are not, that's why we have 200 altcoins that are almost every one of them better than bitcoin in at least one aspect.

Bitcoin has a fail mining approach, PoW.
Bitcoin mining is centralized.
Bitcoin has failed distribution.
Bitcoin has slow confirmations.
Bitcoin development has practically stopped.
Bitcoin blockchain is bulky, its 30gb how much if it would be adopted, impossible to sustain.
Most bitcoin transactions are of criminal nature.

Please tell me why you invest still?

Colored coins? Not going to happen.
Side Chains? Not going to happen.
EFT? Not going to happen.

Enlighten me oh holy permabulls.

Totally agree.

Some here would have you believe that we're "trolls" or Randle McMurphys.

[bakedrice]

is that the smell of despair?

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

is that the smell of despair?

Sure thing. Feel free to jump in:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=920101.0

[thisisascam]

not sure if youre aware,but chinese are manipulating the markets mostly.wait for chinese new year.

[inca]

<well worn crap>

It is easy to attack bitcoin whilst the price has slumped for a year. This forum is completely packed full of posters, mostly like you, screaming doomers predicting the end of bitcoin, pleading with bitcoin holders to sell sell sell. It seems strange that so many people would devote so much time to a failing project. Yet every day you are here, without fail, day after day

The exchange price is in the doldrums. But this has all happened before several times. Cyclical markets are a normal phenomenon. Most of you 'traders' will go broke in the next year or two. You all predicted the last bull runs, right? Oh wait.

The funny thing about the end of a bear market is that at that point it seems that noone is interested in buying. That is also the best time to buy. Every time the market 'drops' due to buying and selling of a tiny number of coins on exchanges there is someone buying the sold coins. Some will recycle in this process but not all, and the top 500 addresses continue to accumulate, whilst bitcoin-days-destroyed is flat. The price could drop another 50 or 100 dollars further. It could crash even lower. I will just buy more. And I can buy lots more. In a way I hope it does drop a bit more so I can go over 200 coins this year for pretty trivial amounts of money in the grand scheme of things.

I believe in bitcoin as a idea and hope it succeeds. It is a revolutionary technology that has the potential to change the world and disrupt the global banking system.

Troll on

[chaoman]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH

just look at all this fear on this forum. This is just a symptom of the future bull run. Remember the old verbiage. move against the crowd when playing markets.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

<well worn crap>

It is easy to attack bitcoin whilst the price has slumped for a year. This forum is completely packed full of posters, mostly like you, screaming doomers predicting the end of bitcoin, pleading with bitcoin holders to sell sell sell. It seems strange that so many people would devote so much time to a failing project. Yet every day you are here, without fail, day after day

So we "want cheap coins"? is that your explanation?

The exchange price is in the doldrums. But this has all happened before several times. Cyclical markets are a normal phenomenon. Most of you 'traders' will go broke in the next year or two. You all predicted the last bull runs, right? Oh wait.

The funny thing about the end of a bear market is that at that point it seems that noone is interested in buying. That is also the best time to buy. Every time the market 'drops' due to buying and selling of a tiny number of coins on exchanges there is someone buying the sold coins. Some will recycle in this process but not all, and the top 500 addresses continue to accumulate, whilst bitcoin-days-destroyed is flat. The price could drop another 50 or 100 dollars further. It could crash even lower. I will just buy more. And I can buy lots more. In a way I hope it does drop a bit more so I can go over 200 coins this year for pretty trivial amounts of money in the grand scheme of things.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=920101.0

Bubbles in the past like the south sea bubble, the dotcom bubble, the tulip bubble were just cycles, yes. Cycles that continued going up long term forevah and evah after their "bear markets"...
Nope.

Hint: the tulip bubble had a mini-bubble too before the big pump, had a bear market and recovered. Still after the big pump, THE bubble bursted. Like BTC, doesn't matter if it recovered in previous pump&dumps bubble cycles.

I believe in bitcoin as a idea and hope it succeeds. It is a revolutionary technology that has the potential to change the world and disrupt the global banking system.

Troll on

It's a failed experiment that is plummeting.
Good luck changing the world and disrupting the global banking system with a currency that cannot handle large-scale economies.


If instead of saying "it's a revolutionary technology" you could give concrete arguments against what OP said instead of calling it "well worn crap" we could go somewhere.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH

just look at all this fear on this forum. This is just a symptom of the future bull run. Remember the old verbiage. move against the crowd when playing markets.

You are clearly very smart.
Check the link I posted, scientist.

[Warren Buffert]

"Trolls" are an easy target for the the bulltards to direct their anger. You see, they can't present any articulate argument as to why people would ever want to buy bitcoins -- aside from gambling and speculating -- so they just pin the fault of this failed experiment on the trolls and otherwise continue to bury their heads in the sand.

The communists tried the same tricks in the Soviet times. When it becomes clear that things aren't working, pin all the blame on the subversive actions of counter revolutionaries and send them to the gulags! Fortunately the bulltards don't have any political power and will forever be losers!

Watch litecoin... this is an exact microcosm of what is happening to bitcoin! Watch as it flatlines and falls, more and more, on its way back to complete obscurity.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

If by "adoption" you mean merchants accepting USD payments from a BITCOIN DUMP though BitPay, or people using BTC as a store of value and losing 70% of its purchasing power in a year, then sure, "adoption".

That's a first, and necessary step: retailer adoption.  Of course they have to convert immediately to fiat, as their costs are billed in fiat.  This implies fast coin turnover, high velocity, and low bitcoin value.

Once this is generalized, and it becomes second nature to be able to buy stuff in bitcoin from retailers (implying low bitcoin price for this fundamental), then suppliers might be interested in being paid in bitcoin.  It may become interesting to receive part of one's salary in bitcoin (as most retailers accept it).
And *that* implies suddenly that not all retailer bills are in fiat.  That implies that retailers will not convert systematically all in fiat, because they can spend the coins themselves (in salaries, in bills of their suppliers....).

That will:
1) boost the amount of stuff bought with bitcoin
2) make holding times much longer

and hence imply much higher prices (longer holding times, and larger volumes of traded value).

At that point, if ever, bitcoin will have become a currency.  Price will then be determined by the monetary formula.

Bitcoin can also have other fundamentals, such as "store of value" a la gold, but I don't believe in that until people get much more confidence in it.

This is a multi-decade program.

People should start getting paid in bitcoin, use it as a store of value you say and merchants should keep their coins. But why would they do that in the first place?
Price is plummeting. Whoever is getting paid in bitcoin or using it as a store of value is losing A LOT of money.

Price is plummeting because there is no demand (or at least no demand considering the selling pressure of miners, bagholders, early adopters, traders) and a general lack of confidence. Selling pressure from merchants keeping their coins instead of getting USD with BitPay is just a tiny part of the equation, they will still lose money and risk with the volatility if they keep them, basically being martyrs for something that might not even change. Price can still continue to fall.
Again, why would they use BTC as a store of value or be paid in BTC in the first place?

We are at the old bitcoin paradox: In order for bitcoin to be useful and not screw people over its value needs to rise. But for its value to rise it needs to be useful.

#Problem

[kwukduck]

Well the predictions are still on track 3-5% decline daily.